More Banjo: Week 3 vs Lions

[vince]

During McCarthy's tenure from 2006-Present from Pro-Football-Reference.com

Entering 4th Quarter with a Lead, including Playoffs
McCarthy - 97-14 .874
League Average - .823
2nd Most Successes, 15th Fewest Failures - 9th Best Success Rate

Entering 2nd Half with a Lead, including Playoffs
McCarthy - 94-14 .870
League Average - .760
2nd Most Successes, 3rd Fewest Failures - 2nd Best Success Rate

That's pretty amazing. McCarthy is roundly criticized for failing to make adjustments at halftime, getting out-coached in the 2nd half, going too conservative too early, etc., etc.

* Only 1 team has more successes or a better success rate winning games when leading at halftime, AND
* Only 2 teams have fewer failures when leading at halftime.

That bears repeating - The Packers have gone into halftime with the lead - and won those games more often than all but 1 team - and at the same time have failed in those situations fewer times than all but 2. Those 2 teams have had 29 (Broncos) and 36 (Bears) fewer opportunities to fail in that time.
__________________________________________________ _

Regardless of one's opinions of his 2nd Half and/or 4th Quarter approach when leading, whether arguments are that it's outdated, evolving but still not good enough, needs to change, too conservative, no longer effective for today's game, etc. - the assertion that McCarthy has mismanaged these situations to the detriment of team success is not just factually wrong but staggeringly wrong. I had no idea he was THAT good at closing the deal.

If he "switches gears" in games with the lead, whether it's in the 3rd Quarter or 4th (I agree he does), then Packer fans should understand that his approach has been highly successful. Successes and success rate when leading at the half jump from highly successful to absolutely elite.

[Patler]

During McCarthy's tenure from 2006-Present from Pro-Football-Reference.com

Entering 4th Quarter with a Lead, including Playoffs
McCarthy - 97-14 .874
League Average - .823
2nd Most Successes, 15th Fewest Failures - 9th Best Success Rate

Entering 2nd Half with a Lead, including Playoffs
McCarthy - 94-14 .870
League Average - .760
2nd Most Successes, 3rd Fewest Failures - 2nd Best Success Rate

That's pretty amazing. McCarthy is roundly criticized for failing to make adjustments at halftime, getting out-coached in the 2nd half, going too conservative too early, etc., etc.

* Only 1 team has more successes or a better success rate winning games when leading at halftime, AND
* Only 2 teams have fewer failures when leading at halftime.

That bears repeating - The Packers have gone into halftime with the lead - and won those games more often than all but 1 team - and at the same time have failed in those situations fewer times than all but 2. Those 2 teams have had 29 (Broncos) and 36 (Bears) fewer opportunities to fail in that time.
__________________________________________________ _

Regardless of one's opinions of his 2nd Half and/or 4th Quarter approach when leading, whether arguments are that it's outdated, evolving but still not good enough, needs to change, too conservative, no longer effective for today's game, etc. - the assertion that McCarthy has mismanaged these situations to the detriment of team success is not just factually wrong but staggeringly wrong. I had no idea he was THAT good at closing the deal.

If he "switches gears" in games with the lead, whether it's in the 3rd Quarter or 4th (I agree he does), then Packer fans should understand that his approach has been highly successful. Successes and success rate when leading at the half jump from highly successful to absolutely elite.

Quite interesting. When you think about it, most of our discussions have been because he "almost gave it away". not because they actually did lose. Fans, of course, want to say a first half drubbing continue into the second half, but in all pro sports it is seldom that a period of total domination last for an entire contest. The differences between teams, especially in the NFL, is not that great. Perhaps a more calculated (conservative?) approach really does enhance the chances of winning. Maybe MM really DOES know what he is doing/ Who would have thought....!!

[Guiness]

Lions are claiming they got an apology from the NFL and the 66 yard PI call was incorrect.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/1...6-yard-penalty

[Fritz]

Lions are claiming they got an apology from the NFL and the 66 yard PI call was incorrect.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/1...6-yard-penalty

I bet they feel so much better now.

Man, the NFL is a mess. A stinking pile of shit 💩 kind of mess.

[pbmax]

Lions are claiming they got an apology from the NFL and the 66 yard PI call was incorrect.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/1...6-yard-penalty

I find this suspicious and probably overstated. The NFL usually defends PI by saying its a judgement call.

[hoosier]

Lions are claiming they got an apology from the NFL and the 66 yard PI call was incorrect.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/1...6-yard-penalty

Sure looks like PI to me. Defender clearly has his arm around Davis's right arm.

[vince]

5 running plays and 4 passing plays in the 3rd Q drive.

7 running plays and 6 passing plays in the 4th Q drives up to the 3 victory formations.

Plus a field goal and 2 punts. I'm counting play intent so QB scrambles or sacks indicate intent to pass.

[pbmax]

5 running plays and 4 passing plays in the 3rd Q drive.

7 running plays and 6 passing plays in the 4th Q drives up to the 3 victory formations.

Plus a field goal and 2 punts. I'm counting play intent so QB scrambles or sacks indicate intent to pass.

12 run to 10 pass is still more run than the first half.

But one game result isn't going to make anyone's case. This was not even the best example of the tendency we are complaining about. Until the last drive, the run game was more effective than passing in the 2nd half.

I will admit that evidence of my complaint is hard to find in that 4th quarter lead chart. The percentage difference between NE and GB is as scant as vince predicted it would be.

I do wonder how it looks for top competition and playoffs.

[pbmax]

Team Comparison to McCarthy-led Packers - Win/Loss Results when Leading at the Half

Ranked by W-L%

Rk	Tm			From	To	W	L	T	W-L%▼	Count	
1	New England Patriots	2006	2016	109	16	0	0.872	125
2	Green Bay Packers	2006	2016	94	14	0	0.870	108
3	Denver Broncos		2006	2016	68	11	0	0.861	79	
4	New Orleans Saints	2006	2016	81	14	0	0.853	95
5	Pittsburgh Steelers	2006	2016	82	16	0	0.837	98
6	Seattle Seahawks	2006	2016	72	14	0	0.837	86
7	Chicago Bears		2006	2016	60	12	0	0.833	72	
8	Baltimore Ravens	2006	2016	82	17	0	0.828	99
9	Philadelphia Eagles	2006	2016	79	17	0	0.823	96
10	New York Giants		2006	2016	69	16	0	0.812	85
11	Indianapolis Colts	2006	2015	77	18	0	0.811	95
12	New York Jets		2006	2016	59	14	0	0.808	73	
13	San Francisco 49ers	2006	2016	61	15	0	0.803	76
14	Arizona Cardinals	2006	2016	56	14	0	0.800	70
15	Atlanta Falcons		2006	2016	62	17	0	0.785	79	
16	Houston Texans		2006	2016	58	18	0	0.763	76
17	Dallas Cowboys		2006	2016	58	19	0	0.753	77
18	Buffalo Bills		2006	2016	46	16	0	0.742	62
19	Kansas City Chiefs	2006	2016	55	20	0	0.733	75
20	San Diego Chargers	2006	2016	65	24	0	0.730	89
21	Jacksonville Jaguars	2006	2015	40	15	0	0.727	55
22	Carolina Panthers	2006	2016	63	24	0	0.724	87
23	Minnesota Vikings	2006	2016	53	20	1	0.723	74
24	Cincinnati Bengals	2006	2015	61	23	2	0.721	86
25	Tennessee Titans	2006	2016	45	22	0	0.672	67
26	Miami Dolphins		2006	2015	42	22	0	0.656	64	
27	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2006	2016	38	21	0	0.644	59
28	?????????? Rams		2006	2016	41	27	1	0.601	69	
29	Detroit Lions		2006	2016	35	27	0	0.565	62	
30	Oakland Raiders		2006	2016	31	24	0	0.564	55	
31	Cleveland Browns	2006	2016	36	28	0	0.563	64
32	Washington Redskins	2006	2015	35	29	0	0.547	64
Total				2006	2016	1913	604	4	.760	2521