How To Screw Up a 4th Quarter Lead

[Smidgeon]

Not starring the Packers and M3, but the Colts and Chuck Pagano. This nugget should get you going:



Sharp Football has provided some stats that push back hard on my favorite theories for McCarthy's late game struggles. But those same play call level details show how the Colts managed to screw up a bunch of late leads.

My first read is this:

1. Substituting likelier to fail play calls for one's that are more successful is a bad idea if the only return is to service a second order effect (running versus a loaded box to drain the clock). You are in essence, handing the other team what they need (multiple possessions) when they need it. It may make sense very late, but not before. And doing it will less than a 2 score lead is probably dumb before 2 minutes.

2. You want to drain clock? Stay inbounds and muddle huddle on every down you can waiting to snap until late in game clock. You can do that at any time.

3. Slowing things down and managing a lead versus a good opponent is just a bad idea in general. At some point, they will figure you out and adjust and score.

http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com...the-2017-colts

Does this change any of your theories yet?

[pbmax]

Does this change any of your theories yet?

Not yet.

Most of the work Sharp did that vince (I think) quoted a while back showed McCarthy wasn't quite as run oriented as some famous games tend to suggest nor as eager as I thought to get to the 4 minute offense early. His overall record in games with a lead is not bad at all. Its more worrying against better teams in the playoffs, which to some degree is to be expected.

McCarthy isn't this stubborn. And he clearly adjusted to favor more first downs since the Seattle meltdown. Ironically, the rest of the offense seems to have suffered a bit for multiple reasons, but M3's late game offensive approach has improved.