Is McCarthy the problem?

[hoosier]

OK I was a little quick publishing those stats. Those are the percentage of runs on each down relative to the other downs, not relative to passes. Sorry about that.

Here are the 5-yr. run vs. pass rates in the 4th Q with a lead (all downs combined).

NE - 58%
GB - 63%
League - 65%

Belli is 5% more likely than McCarthy to pass with a lead in the 4th. McCarthy is 2% more likely than the league average. Both are very successful closing games.

To fully understand the comparison we would need to see a little more differentiation for circumstances. For instance, run calls according to down & distance and size of lead. They could have similar overall numbers in this fourth quarter with lead category, but if it turned out the Patriots tend to have bigger leads than the Packers, then MM's run-calling tendencies would seem even more comparatively conservative than the five percent indicated here.

[mraynrand]

To fully understand the comparison we would need to see a little more differentiation for circumstances.

I like to just watch the games. You get a feel for what works for a particular coach. I generally think many many Packer fans, angry with Stubby for his failures, don't actually watch a lot of other games and see how 25 or more head coaches screw things up on a routine basis.

There's a reason Stubby wins 10 or more games and makes the playoffs every year. And if some smart guy wants to say it's Rodgers bailing him out, then he should give credit to Stubby for training Rodgers so well. But he probably won't!

[hoosier]

I like to just watch the games. You get a feel for what works for a particular coach. I generally think many many Packer fans, angry with Stubby for his failures, don't actually watch a lot of other games and see how 25 or more head coaches screw things up on a routine basis.

There's a reason Stubby wins 10 or more games and makes the playoffs every year. And if some smart guy wants to say it's Rodgers bailing him out, then he should give credit to Stubby for training Rodgers so well. But he probably won't!

Football is about four decades if not more behind baseball in its analytical evolution. You, sitting on your couch, content to remain in your intuitive slumbers, are part of what is keeping football in its Dark Ages.