How does the NE game count?Originally Posted by yetisnowman
We were up 23-14 at half and at the beginning of the 4th quarter. We won 26-21. That doesn't meet the criteria you have thrown out. In fact, it shows that Brady is not clutch.
How does the NE game count?
We were up 23-14 at half and at the beginning of the 4th quarter. We won 26-21. That doesn't meet the criteria you have thrown out. In fact, it shows that Brady is not clutch.
But Rodgers leads the league in frumpy expressions and negative body language on the sideline, which makes him, like Josh Allen, a unique double threat.
-Tim Harmston
I never said 4qcbs was a perfect metric or the ONLY criteria relevant to analyzing qb play. It is just one statistical example of the team and aaron's struggles in those spots. That is the point that he isn't typically great in those spots. And that particular stat i think validates that claim. It isn't perfect, but it certainly isn't innaccurate.
I don't care if we are behind or ahead in a close game . Late in those games the way a qb executes is extremely important. That is why i consider the NE game to be clutch from aaron. He threw what would have been game clinching TD that was dropped.
really? Well, then you need to get deep in the weeds and analyze each play of each game to determine culpability for 'lack of comeback' because in other comeback attempts, Rodgers is either getting planted, guys are dropping passes, or they're running incorrect routes. Either way, you're in trouble because as a casual fan you're gonna have difficulty assigning a missed connection to the QB or WR - see Rodgers to Finley, 2011 Divisional game for example.
"Never, never ever support a punk like mraynrand. Rather be as I am and feel real sympathy for his sickness." - Woodbuck
You would think then that every QB's "comeback" numbers would be dampened by these types of misfortunes, right, given a large enough sample space? Is Rodgers really the only victim of this?
Yes. While other QBs are the victim of this and other QBs would benefit from this type of analysis, what we're saying here is due to Sanders/Capers/Slocum/defense/special teams, Rodgers in general hasn't had the other parts of the team bail him out as much as other QBs have. The Bears defenses consistently putting Cutler in a position to win are a great example of this.
I'm not saying that Rodgers can't improve. He can. But this metric--due to our recent bad Q4 defenses--puts him on the other end of the spectrum from Tom Brady and Russel Wilson.
No longer the member of any fan clubs. I'm tired of jinxing players out of the league and into obscurity.
No, it depends on the relative quality of the receivers and whether they are 'clutch.' So you need deep analysis of all receivers and expert analysis by people familiar with the routes, etc.
And better QBs might be even MORE victimized as eventually their greatness and $$ tend to reduce the quality of available receivers. Making Tom Brady all the more impressive. Even Bert had some great comebacks throwing the ball to a collection of losers, like Kittrick Taylor, Corey Bradford, Jeff Thomason, and David Martin. Fortunately, Favre sucked enough to put himself in position for some awesome comebacks, making him collectively better than Rodgers, who typically refuses to throw early interceptions that put the Packers in a hole from which he can then rescue them.
"Never, never ever support a punk like mraynrand. Rather be as I am and feel real sympathy for his sickness." - Woodbuck
Good.
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We have that data:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/clu...ounters-week-1Code:QB 4QC W 4QC L Pct. Rk LC Adj. W Adj. L Pct. Rk Diff. Rk Brandon Weeden 1 10 0.091 30 3 4 7 0.364 24 0.273 1 Aaron Rodgers 6 25 0.194 27 8 14 17 0.452 14 0.258 2 Russell Wilson 8 8 0.500 3 4 12 4 0.750 1 0.250 3 Drew Brees 23 42 0.354 12 13 36 29 0.554 6 0.200 4 Cam Newton 6 17 0.261 23 4 10 13 0.435 16 0.174 5 Joe Flacco 12 23 0.343 14 6 18 17 0.514 8 0.171 6 Matt Stafford 10 22 0.313 17 5 15 17 0.469 12 0.156 7 Eli Manning 25 31 0.446 6 7 32 24 0.571 4 0.125 8 Matt Cassel 8 17 0.320 16 3 11 14 0.440 15 0.120 9 Matt Schaub 11 26 0.297 21 4 15 22 0.405 19 0.108 10 Roethlisberger 23 34 0.404 9 6 29 28 0.509 10 0.105 11 Michael Vick 12.5 25.5 0.329 15 4 16.5 21.5 0.434 17 0.105 12 Andy Dalton 6 14 0.300 19 2 8 12 0.400 20 0.100 13 Carson Palmer 17 43 0.283 22 6 23 37 0.383 21 0.100 14 Chris Ponder 1.5 8.5 0.150 29 1 2.5 7.5 0.250 29 0.100 15 Peyton Manning 40 47 0.460 5 7 47 40 0.540 7 0.080 16 Tony Romo 20 30 0.400 10 4 24 26 0.480 11 0.080 17 Matt Ryan 18 23 0.439 7 3 21 20 0.512 9 0.073 18 Tom Brady 31 28 0.525 2 4 35 24 0.593 3 0.068 19 Andrew Luck 8 7 0.533 1 1 9 6 0.600 2 0.067 20 Ryan Tannehill 5 11 0.313 18 1 6 10 0.375 23 0.063 21 Robert G III 4 12 0.250 24 1 5 11 0.313 26 0.063 22 C Kaepernick 4.5 4.5 0.500 4 1 5 4 0.556 5 0.056 23 Jason Campbell 7 29 0.194 25 2 9 27 0.250 27 0.056 24 Fitzpatrick 7 29 0.194 26 2 9 27 0.250 28 0.056 25 Philip Rivers 17 40 0.298 20 3 20 37 0.351 25 0.053 26 Chad Henne 4 18 0.182 28 1 5 17 0.227 30 0.045 27 Alex Smith 11 18 0.379 11 1 12 17 0.414 18 0.034 28 Sam Bradford 5.5 10.5 0.344 13 1 6 10 0.375 22 0.031 29 Jay Cutler 16 21 0.432 8 1 17 20 0.459 13 0.027 30
Bud Adams told me the franchise he admired the most was the Kansas City Chiefs. Then he asked for more hookers and blow.
That is interesting. Basically what it concludes is the Packers are one of the worst teams in those situations with Rodgers as their qb. And that their defense and special teams contribute more to these failures than almost any other team. So after a detailed thorough, evaluation how does A-Rod perform in crunch time, with the game on the line................??????
Average.
For a 2 time MVP, and what people like to claim is the best qb to ever play, I still contend that is not good enough. Especially when all the qbs that are statistically better than him in this regard, look to play for teams we will likely have to beat in close games on the way to a title.
That is just with Defense subtracted. They haven't yet dealt with ST or the coach.
Bud Adams told me the franchise he admired the most was the Kansas City Chiefs. Then he asked for more hookers and blow.
[QUOTE=mraynrand;827275]really? Well, then you need to get deep in the weeds and analyze each play of each game to determine culpability for 'lack of comeback' because in other comeback attempts, Rodgers is either getting planted, guys are dropping passes, or they're running incorrect routes. Either way, you're in trouble because as a casual fan you're gonna have difficulty assigning a missed connection to the QB or WR - see Rodgers to Finley, 2011 Divisional game for example.[/QU
If i felt like dropped passes and receivers running the wrong route were the rule and not the exception I would agree with you.
With a big enough sample size these things tend to even out with qbs. Is Arod the unluckiest qb ever? No. The Packers aren't the only team that struggles in special teams and has drops sometimes. Remember Welker's huge drop in the 2011 super bowl?
Why so defensive? YS is providing a nuanced take - that the Packers have had difficulties in close games in the 4th quarter, in which Rodgers wasn't fully culpable, but was a factor; difficulties which have been improved upon recently.
I think that's totally fair.
I am not being defensive. I am trying to understand what the actual measurements are and how they actually work. It seems like YS method penalizes teams that are offensively explosive or start fast in games and win. I pointed out that our 19 game winning streak, which included a Super Bowl, earned ARod zero on YS rating scale.
Football is such a team game that it is very hard to blame a QB for winning or losing just on the last drive or a "clutch factor" in a game.
The perfect example to me is the Seattle game. If Ha Ha knocks down Wilson's balloon ball prayer two point conversion or instead of jumping to go after the ball tackles the TE after he catched the ball short of the end zone, ARod would be deemed clutch for leading the team down for a FG to win the game. Instead, ARod isn't clutch and gets blamed in this thread.
But Rodgers leads the league in frumpy expressions and negative body language on the sideline, which makes him, like Josh Allen, a unique double threat.
-Tim Harmston
Again this is not the end all be all of stats, and it is not my scale. I didn't come up with it. It removes some context, I am not disputing that. And "my" scale is referring to when he has had the OPPORTUNITY to lead us on a game winning drive/fourth quarter comeback and failed. It has nothing to do with blowout wins, and of course blowout wins have nothing to do with Aaron's lack of clutchness.
We could go around and around on the Seattle game, yes the 2 point conversion was maddening...among other plays. But I could easily argue that if Aaron is more competent and accurate in the first half we are up 26-7 or 29-7 with 5 minutes left.
Fair. Perhaps a better measure would be a percentage of 4QCB wins by opportunity. Though if HaHa knocks the ball down, I don't know if the remaining game transpires the same way (butterfly effect and all).
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