Quote Originally Posted by Patler View Post
Now, THAT is an interesting article.
Its come under a bit of fire in the analytical community.

http://regressing.deadspin.com/why-t...mos-1681805710

I haven't gone through it all, but the first version of the article looked at lost fumbles which is problematic because fumble recovery is largely a matter of luck. He corrects this in an update to include all fumbles.

Second, he excludes Dome teams in some data. It has been argued that the Patriots are less outliers if you just exclude dome games, rather than teams.

Several of the probability numbers are miscalculated. Instead of using X, they use 1/X, and try to plot it against a normal distribution curve. Except no one know if 1/X has a normal distribution.

That said, Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats) thinks despite Sharp's poor analysis, there is still enough of an outlier there to be worthy of investigation.