Quote Originally Posted by Maxie the Taxi View Post
Ok, let's say it's 3rd down with 7 yds to go? According to the stats, do the odds favor a run or a pass?

My point is the statistics must say that from a certain down and distance either or run or a pass has the best chance to gain a first down. If they don't, then the whole discussion about throwing vs running on 1st down is moot. Or, the statistics and odds are so situation dependent that a discussion about them is absurd.

Thus, "gut feel" for the situation might have just as much validity as statistics.

It gets back to what you referred to before as "momentum."
Most downs are not zero sum downs, however. On third and seven the odds almost always favor passing, but first-and-ten is obviously a very different story: passing is far more likely to get you another first down, but running might be a better way to set up second and short. And so on.