More Banjo: Week 1 vs. Seattle

[pbmax]

The Seahawks cost themselves over 7% of win probability on 4th downs vs. the Packers: 3.5% on 4th and goal at the 3 in the 3rd quarter down by 4 points, 3.1% on 4th and 2 from the GB 42 scoreless in the 1st quarter, and 1.1% on 4th and 3 from their own 44 down by 8 in the 4th quarter.

Brian Burke, ESPN Analytics

[hoosier]

The Seahawks cost themselves over 7% of win probability on 4th downs vs. the Packers: 3.5% on 4th and goal at the 3 in the 3rd quarter down by 4 points, 3.1% on 4th and 2 from the GB 42 scoreless in the 1st quarter, and 1.1% on 4th and 3 from their own 44 down by 8 in the 4th quarter.

Brian Burke, ESPN Analytics

Does he state what the WP cost would have been if Carroll had gone for it and failed on any of these? And how does one measure likelihood of converting/scoring in these situations? Generically? Or does one look at Packer defense's historical difficulty in containing mobile QBs, botching assignments and generally getting off the field on 3rd and 4th down?

[pbmax]

Does he state what the WP cost would have been if Carroll had gone for it and failed on any of these? And how does one measure likelihood of converting/scoring in these situations? Generically? Or does one look at Packer defense's historical difficulty in containing mobile QBs, botching assignments and generally getting off the field on 3rd and 4th down?

Going from memory, but those WP models usually look at game specific situations, not team specific.

However, I bet Pete's calculation was that they were on the road and their 3rd down efficiency was 25% (3/12) so it wasn't their day with the O line getting mauled. Packers were 56% (9/16) on 3rd down.