Quote Originally Posted by vince View Post
OK I was a little quick publishing those stats. Those are the percentage of runs on each down relative to the other downs, not relative to passes. Sorry about that.

Here are the 5-yr. run vs. pass rates in the 4th Q with a lead (all downs combined).

NE - 58%
GB - 63%
League - 65%

Belli is 5% more likely than McCarthy to pass with a lead in the 4th. McCarthy is 2% more likely than the league average. Both are very successful closing games.
To fully understand the comparison we would need to see a little more differentiation for circumstances. For instance, run calls according to down & distance and size of lead. They could have similar overall numbers in this fourth quarter with lead category, but if it turned out the Patriots tend to have bigger leads than the Packers, then MM's run-calling tendencies would seem even more comparatively conservative than the five percent indicated here.