Vince, first of all, thanks for the reasoned dialog.
Rehashing this game is getting old fast. The only reason I'm still in the conversation is that I find your point of view fascinating. McCarthy obviously shares your point of view so understanding it is key to my estimation of what the future will bring in Green Bay.
The essence of your argument is that McCarthy did nothing wrong. Players play the game, not coaches. If the players had not made mistakes and had done their jobs properly, the Packers would have won the game and would be in the Super Bowl. The job of the Head Coach is to have "confidence in his guys," and McCarthy did that job well last Sunday.
The problem with that argument is that it is unrealistic and, hence, untrue. Yes, the players play the game, but the Head Coach controls what the players may and may not do in certain, key situations. That was the case Sunday.
For the sake of this discussion, let's agree to forget how the game ended and all that transpired on the field after Burnett's interception. Green Bay has the ball on it's own 43 yard line. There is 5:04 left on the clock. GB has the lead 19-7.
Answer this question: What happens next, i.e., what do the players playing the game do next, RUN or PASS?
If this was a sandlot game, you couldn't answer that question because the players themselves decide what they're going to do. However, in the NFL that is not the case. In the NFL the coach decides what the players will do in that situation and Mike McCarthy decided the players would RUN the ball into the teeth of a stacked defense.
The truth is, that at that moment in the game, Mike McCarthy directly affected play in a way that the players could not. Furthermore, McCarthy decided that the Packers would RUN into the teeth of the Seattle defense on the next two plays and then punt on 4th down.
McCarthy owns those decisions and must explain and defend those decisions to his players and to GB fans. So far, to my knowledge, he has not done so.
Here is how Eric Baranczyk and Pete Dougherty of Packernews.com described McCarthy's series of decisions at that point of the game:
Vince, as you say correctly, deciding on a PASS play does not guarantee first down yardage or a different outcome to the game, but it certainly is a debatable decision, subject to criticism.On the ensuing series the Packers lost four yards on three runs, and punted. There were execution errors on each run, but the biggest mistake was McCarthy's decision to play it safe, to play not to lose.
The Packers' offensive line might be the best pass blocking group in the NFL. It had a fantastic game protecting Aaron Rodgers on Sunday against one of the best pass-rushing lines in the NFL. Really impressive. But it's middle of the road as a run-blocking unit, and the Seahawks were looking run all the way. Getting a first down on the ground probably was asking too much.
Also, Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman was obviously playing one-armed because of an injured elbow. He was ripe for targeting. The Packers have a booth full of assistant coaches and spotters upstairs. They had to know it.
You have Rodgers, the presumptive league MVP and a guy who protects the ball as well as anyone. Put the game in his hands to keep the clock moving.
On the first play the Seahawks had 10 men in the box and the 11th only seven yards deep. They were selling out against the run. On second down, even against three wide receivers, it was seven in the box, press coverage and a single safety 10 yards deep. Match up Nelson with Sherman and throw him a jump ball. Nelson would have a huge edge.
In fact, on third-and-16, Nelson was matched against Sherman on the outside. You would have had to have liked Nelson's chances of coming down with the catch against a one-armed player. But McCarthy called a run instead.
Moreover, the importance of that decision cannot be dismissed by tired canards like "players play the game" or by red herrings like head coaches are to be held blameless because they must show "confidence in their guys."