Who stalled the drives, Rodgers or McCarthy? M3 loves throttling down in FG range to eat clock.
Who stalled the drives, Rodgers or McCarthy? M3 loves throttling down in FG range to eat clock.
Bud Adams told me the franchise he admired the most was the Kansas City Chiefs. Then he asked for more hookers and blow.
I only see one instance of that in the examples listed. I said that one is not on him with the blocked fg vs. Chicago. A stalled drive and a punt, or a interception to end the game....Aaron has to take a lot of blame for those. That is mostly what i am seeing. Missing a 52 yd fg is not a blunder or misshap. That happens. Even the last game, we didn't settle for a fg or run out of time....we were unable to get a first down to push for a win. And yes that is what we needed...I knew we would not win in OT.Originally Posted by pbmax
There are five cases where Rodgers drove them into FG and a FG was attempted. That was precisely my point.
Interceptions to end games are precisely what the criticism is about, though in reverse of your claim. The theory about his comeback record that has been put forward is that he doesn't take enough risks at the end of the game when behind, when those risks are justified by the game situation.
So if you wish to claim that INTs are the reason he doesn't produce more 4th Quarter comebacks, then you need to explain why subsequent seasons, when his INT numbers have plummeted, the 4th Qtr comebacks are still not plentiful.
The "people who analyze QB play" are actually saying there should be more INTs in certain situations in order to increase the odds of making a 4th Quarter comeback.
Bud Adams told me the franchise he admired the most was the Kansas City Chiefs. Then he asked for more hookers and blow.
Sigh..... I am saying that when you are trailing in the last minutes of the game and you turn the ball over or are unable to keep the drive going, you bear a good portion of that responsibility as a quarterback. I am not saying interceptions are THE reason he doesn't have more fourth quarter comebacks, but that obviously him throwing a game ending interception is an example of him failing to engineer one?
I only see 3 of the 8 examples involving us attempting a field goal. One we made, one we missed, and was blocked. The one that we made, there was still a game ending pick that Aaron threw after that sequence when we need a touchdown. The one we missed was a 52 yarder outside, and is never what you want or would you ever settle for a 52 yarder. The one that was blocked, Aaron did his job and special teams failed.
I love how you guys parse and beat quotes into the ground. Anyone with a logical brain can analyze qb play. I watch the damn games. Aaron has great numbers and has been good at beating the shit out of bad teams for the most part. But in close games, which against good teams you tend to find yourself in, he struggles. I actually thought he made great strides in regards to clutchness this season....the Miami game obviously, vs NE when Adams dropped what would have sealed the game as a td, and the Dallas game. But when the Seattle game took me back to those frustrating places, where you feel like he can't lead us to victory when we need it the most. I know his calf, wah wah. He hasn't played Seattle much better at full strength, so I just don't buy it. The excuse parade just never ends.
1. You cannot talk about 4th Quarter comebacks and then only talk about the last drive with Rodgers. Thats apples to carrots. In your citing of QB observers and the other QBs who have more 4QC than Rodgers, you do not limit them to the last drive of the game for inclusion.
2. If a drive (not the last drive of a game) ends in a FG to tie or take the lead, the QB has likely done his job and his coach is satisfied with the result. Because unless I am mistaken, the coach calls out the FG unit, not the QB.
Bud Adams told me the franchise he admired the most was the Kansas City Chiefs. Then he asked for more hookers and blow.
The same criteria apply for Aaron to be given credit for a 4qcb, as do for Jay Cutler, Tom Brady, Jon Kitna whoever. You seem like a smart dude, but I really think you are an apologist. Aaron doesn't have a good 4qcb %, irrelevant. He doesn't produce a lot of game winning drives, doesn't matter. He struggles in tough spots in the playoffs, it's the calf and the coaching and the rain and the defense and the receivers and the refs. It's not his fault. That's what I am hearing.
Well it's not ALL his fault, but a good portion is. I'll say it again if he doesn't play better we won't win superbowls. I'm sure if we lose another close game next year in January, there will be a million excuses, but as I said losers make excuses, winners see adversity that they can overcome.
I fully recognize that he isn't good, or even average by the 4QC measure. But the 4QC is not a measure solely within the control of the QB. Its very problematic to judge. So much depends on your coach, the defense and the special teams. The best that can be done within it is to find instances where the QB leads his team to a comeback 4QLead, and then determine if the rest of the team is able to hold onto it.
However, you seem to prefer to look at the last offensive possession to isolate the QB from the D and ST. Problem is, outside of going game by game like we have for 2008, we don't have that data for other QBs. Perfect example is Brady in the SB. He took a lead, but his defense had to make it stand up with a last second near-miracle.
So when, in your breakdown of his 2008 close games, there is a consistent failure to recognize where he had driven the team to a late lead. You recognize only one FG that was blocked as bad luck, the rest were not enough because they weren't determinative. So the 4QC info is telling us something about the Packers, but it may not be telling us something about Rodgers. You have data that is inextricably linked to the coach, the D and the ST and does not isolate the QB at all.
There are two areas that have been further pursued; one was 538 breaking down late INTs, as an estimate of risk taking late. The other was either Chase Stuart or Scott Kacsmar doing a breakdown of defensive breakdowns after its team (and its QB) had retaken the lead. Guess what? Rodgers was among the leaders in his defense giving up a lead. Both these sets of data are in threads on this site.
The conclusion I draw from this is that its a terrible stat to judge QBs on as is. It is by no means clear it can capture a finite quality or capability of a QB, and by no means is it good at distinguishing good QB play from excellent QB play.
Last edited by pbmax; 02-04-2015 at 11:59 AM.
Bud Adams told me the franchise he admired the most was the Kansas City Chiefs. Then he asked for more hookers and blow.
New Theory: If my QB and game planning tended to put me in an early lead against almost all other teams, my goal would be to become an expert on holding that lead and minimizing the chances of a comeback. Outside of basics, I would not worry in the slightest about 4QC.
Anyone want to claim McCarthy and the team has that figured out yet? I do agree with Vince that the safest path is the low risk, low variance, time eating strategy. But I am not sure that is the most best way to close out the game with a win. Being a little riskier when you have all the advantages is probably warranted. The Seattle game might have been the worst example because the greatest edge you have is injured and can't play action.
McCarthy is successful and established enough to employ a strategy of eating clock and living with the consequences of that strategy when it doesn't work out. So he is not afraid to use a plan whose principle feature is to enhance the chances of winning rather than avoiding post-game criticism. If he were to switch to pushing aggressively when he has leverage at any point in the game, he is well positioned to survive whatever criticism might occur during the transition.
Bud Adams told me the franchise he admired the most was the Kansas City Chiefs. Then he asked for more hookers and blow.
And this is his first year as a starter. Most QBs don't set the world on fire in their first season as a starter.
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