WR battle

[Smidgeon]

Hello ND, good to see you.

I will say this in defense of Janis and this is from someone who has been consistently disappointed by him since he first preseason breakout three years ago.

He caught two other balls on two other routes against the starting D, or some starters and some backups. That is progress from the 9 route specialist he had become.

He has not been the talk of camp, so its still unclear whether he has demonstrated these new skills to the coaches and QB yet. But progress is better than the previous two off seasons. Its not enough to see his as a Pro Bowler, but he is good enough on ST that he will stick again and get another year to improve.

Problem is that not many WR break out in their fourth or fifth year.

Correct on the fifth year, not correct on the fourth year.

Jordy Nelson was a D2 and had 300 yard seasons his first two years, a 580 yard season his third, then exploded his fourth year with 51% more catches and 117% more yards versus the prior year (1263 yards on 63 receptions following a 582/45 season).

Donald Driver was a D7 (like Janis) who only had 13 receptions his third year. In his fourth year, he had 70 for 1064 yards, basically an insane turnaround completely unpredictable according to stats.
James Jones' rookie season was pretty good (676 on 47), but he didn't top it again until his fourth year (679 on 50), Cobb's second season was his breakout season, and Greg Jennings started like Jones but then kept improving every year.

Right now, Janis' stats are barely less than Driver's thus far. The difference is Driver entered his fourth season as a starter. Janis is still WR5 or WR6 right now. It is unlikely he makes a big step like that this year. But considering how raw he was, it's possible he's a year or two behind Driver. If he puts up 20ish catches this year, he might still have a shot at a later breakout. If he puts out less than that, statistically it is unlikely he'll ever put out more than 10-15 catches per year.

[pbmax]

Correct on the fifth year, not correct on the fourth year.

Jordy Nelson was a D2 and had 300 yard seasons his first two years, a 580 yard season his third, then exploded his fourth year with 51% more catches and 117% more yards versus the prior year (1263 yards on 63 receptions following a 582/45 season).

Donald Driver was a D7 (like Janis) who only had 13 receptions his third year. In his fourth year, he had 70 for 1064 yards, basically an insane turnaround completely unpredictable according to stats.
James Jones' rookie season was pretty good (676 on 47), but he didn't top it again until his fourth year (679 on 50), Cobb's second season was his breakout season, and Greg Jennings started like Jones but then kept improving every year.

Right now, Janis' stats are barely less than Driver's thus far. The difference is Driver entered his fourth season as a starter. Janis is still WR5 or WR6 right now. It is unlikely he makes a big step like that this year. But considering how raw he was, it's possible he's a year or two behind Driver. If he puts up 20ish catches this year, he might still have a shot at a later breakout. If he puts out less than that, statistically it is unlikely he'll ever put out more than 10-15 catches per year.

Yes, but do Nelson, Adams, Cobb really matchup with Jennings, Driver, Jones?

Nelson was in a serious logjam. There have been snaps available to Janis during the long offensive drought and from injuries.

I would argue that we knew Nelson was good by Year 4, even if that was the first sign of the monster to come.

[Smidgeon]

Yes, but do Nelson, Adams, Cobb really matchup with Jennings, Driver, Jones?

Nelson was in a serious logjam. There have been snaps available to Janis during the long offensive drought and from injuries.

I would argue that we knew Nelson was good by Year 4, even if that was the first sign of the monster to come.

Only kinda sorta. The comparison with Nelson at the time was who was better, him or James Jones. Going into Nelson's fourth year, it was anyone's guess. Jones started out strong his rookie year, then regressed the next two before matching his rookie year. Nelson started weaker in the first two years and grew a little bit in the third. I remember a lot of people couldn't decide who was going to be better, but I think the general consensus leaned towards Jones. There was a logjam, but they were fighting for the #3 spot after Driver and Jennings.

[hoosier]

Yes, but do Nelson, Adams, Cobb really matchup with Jennings, Driver, Jones?

Nelson was in a serious logjam. There have been snaps available to Janis during the long offensive drought and from injuries.

I would argue that we knew Nelson was good by Year 4, even if that was the first sign of the monster to come.

Not to turn this into a sideshow but first sign of Nelson's emergence was in his thirrd year, at the end of 2010, in that late December game against NYG and then the huge game against Pittsburgh in the SB. In his fourth year he went over 1200 yards receiving. I agree with your main point, which is that there have been ample opportunities for Janis to earn playing time whereas Nelson had to split time for his first three years. Moreover, the comparison really isn't apt because Nelson was much more polished coming in and he got plenty of playing of time from the get go. Janis was much greener and has never really dispelled his initial limitations.