Vic Ketchmab calls a spade a spade with fans who live in fantasy

[vince]

You are assuming a 56 yard FG attempt is a probably make. I think its about 50% for Mase this year. Its 56.7% for the League in 2016.

Obviously McCarthy would have preferred yard gainage over Spriggs' whiff. But that's fanboy after-the-fact second-guessing.

McCarthy's finger on the pulse of his team and confidence in his guy in this situation was well placed and correct. Indoor stadium, no wind, plenty of leg, very consistent year, brimming with confidence, etc., etc. Your lack thereof based on past percentages going back many years in a wide variety of situations proved to be wrong and out of touch. Maintaining you were right after the facts prove the opposite is very hard to understand - the height of stubbornness perhaps...

P.S. - perhaps it was just this kind of belief, confidence and overall approach from McCarthy had some role in inspiring Crosby's confidence and methodical success in nailing three consecutive clutch kicks from 50+. The stats you cite would indicate that being VERY unlikely but Crosby was, in fact, money - repeatedly - in that environment, time, and situation. Crosby did it of course, but his coach was absolutely right in believing he would.

[hoosier]

Obviously McCarthy would have preferred yard gainage over Spriggs' whiff. But that's fanboy after-the-fact second-guessing.

McCarthy's finger on the pulse of his team and confidence in his guy in this situation was well placed and correct. Indoor stadium, no wind, plenty of leg, very consistent year, brimming with confidence, etc., etc. Your lack thereof based on past percentages going back many years in a wide variety of situations proved to be wrong and out of touch. Maintaining you were right after the facts prove the opposite is very hard to understand - the height of stubbornness perhaps...

P.S. - perhaps it was just this kind of belief, confidence and overall approach from McCarthy had some role in inspiring Crosby's confidence and methodical success in nailing three consecutive clutch kicks from 50+. The stats you cite would indicate that being VERY unlikely but Crosby was, in fact, money - repeatedly - in that environment, time, and situation. Crosby did it of course, but his coach was absolutely right in believing he would.

One could just as easily say that you are thinking like a results merchant. Just because the end result was good doesn't mean that the chain of decisions that led up to it was the percentage play. In this particular case things worked out, but what would we be thinking if Dallas had marched down the field and scored a TD or if the game had gone to OT?

[vince]

One could just as easily say that you are thinking like a results merchant. Just because the end result was good doesn't mean that the chain of decisions that led up to it was the percentage play. In this particular case things worked out, but what would we be thinking if Dallas had marched down the field and scored a TD or if the game had gone to OT?

Thank you. Results are real - and what matters. Saying, "Had the results been different, I'd have been right. Therefore, I am right." is not based in reality.

The results McCarthy has achieved successfully finishing games at the world's highest level of this sport - more effective than every other play-caller in the last six years - are also real.

Yet people continue to insist that, "If he wasn't so effective, he'd be ineffective. Therefore, he sucks in those situations." or, "Man. He was ALMOST ineffective if I cherry-pick the two plays that didn't "work" (according to my definition) and divine some non-real greater success in those plays (or non-real subsequent failure "averted") with an alternative strategy. Therefore, he sucks - despite the fact that he's actually proven to be the league's most effective at driving the desired results in those situations."

Regarding your hypothetical failure scenario, hoosier, isn't it ironic that none of the Stubby Crew recognizes (I won't say "understands" because in most cases I know better) that - in reality - that's EXACTLY the scenario that McCarthy helped avoid with his approach in that situation?

It could have happened (but didn't thanks to the significant impact McCarthy's play selection actually had on offsetting those possibilities), therefore McCarthy doesn't know how to deal with that situation/can't "think on the fly" I believe he was characterized/etc., etc.

Or, "It happened in Seattle and I'll choose to ignore the other 110 similar situations which had a different result, therefore he's incompetent."

Surely people can see the futility in that kind of logic, no?

McCarthy's consistent success thinking on the fly, at times against "percentages" is, in reality, a significant strength and a foundation of this team's confidence, togetherness, momentum, achievement, etc. The actual results of this game - combined with his entire history of elite success - demonstrate that. That's reality and those are the results he takes to the bank - despite the second-guessing fantasy crew.

[bobblehead]

Thank you. Results are real - and what matters. Saying, "Had the results been different, I'd have been right. Therefore, I am right." is not based in reality.

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I was at this party drunk in college and I grabbed this hot chic right between the legs, pushed her to the wall and kissed her. She went home with me. I made the right call....clearly...cuz I got laid.

[bobblehead]

Obviously McCarthy would have preferred yard gainage over Spriggs' whiff. But that's fanboy after-the-fact second-guessing.
.

I disagree. When the entire NFL, kids at home, and millions watching around the world know you are going to run into the teeth of the D twice and then hope AR bails you out on 3rd and 14, its not second guessing. If we are in the exact same scenario v. atlanta and he calls a run, it will lose yards. Why? Because MM has been so predictable in that call for over a decade that guys line up to blow it up. Run a naked bootleg with cobb on the field and releasing just one out of 6 times on second down there and the success of the other 5 goes up immensely. Also, the odds of getting a first on that 1 of 6 is pretty good.

[pbmax]

I disagree. When the entire NFL, kids at home, and millions watching around the world know you are going to run into the teeth of the D twice and then hope AR bails you out on 3rd and 14, its not second guessing. If we are in the exact same scenario v. atlanta and he calls a run, it will lose yards. Why? Because MM has been so predictable in that call for over a decade that guys line up to blow it up. Run a naked bootleg with cobb on the field and releasing just one out of 6 times on second down there and the success of the other 5 goes up immensely. Also, the odds of getting a first on that 1 of 6 is pretty good.

I do think he has adjusted this year. Much less 8 minute appearances of the 4 minute offense and he has passed more late in games.

But when they got into FG range you could just sense it happening. Not quite the same as Seattle as there was much less time, but still, he was going to run each down.

[bobblehead]

I do think he has adjusted this year. Much less 8 minute appearances of the 4 minute offense and he has passed more late in games.

But when they got into FG range you could just sense it happening. Not quite the same as Seattle as there was much less time, but still, he was going to run each down.

Agreed. He is better. Thus I only criticized 2 plays. The D did not go into a shell to prevent the big play in the middle of the 3rd Q either. He is getting better. If he would just read our posts the sky is the limit!!