Brady 4 Game Suspension Upheld

[mraynrand]

There is no physical evidence that air was let out of the footballs. The underlying crime does not appear to have occurred. Do you have a murder conviction sustained when someone has not died?

WTF kind of bullshit question is this? This is perhaps the worst analogy I've ever seen you make. The 'body' here is a slightly deflated football. (like a subtle attempted murder, perhaps with maybe one very low dose of rat poison).

What kind of evidence do you want? There's plenty of circumstantial evidence for an effort to adjust the inflation of the footballs. It's not well supported (I guess there is a missing phone or something?) but it exists.

Ya know, there was nothing on those 18 minutes of White house tapes and nothing on that server either. "Absence of proof is proof of absence!"

[pbmax]

WTF kind of bullshit question is this? This is perhaps the worst analogy I've ever seen you make. The 'body' here is a slightly deflated football. (like a subtle attempted murder, perhaps with maybe one very low dose of rat poison).

What kind of evidence do you want? There's plenty of circumstantial evidence for an effort to adjust the inflation of the footballs. It's not well supported (I guess there is a missing phone or something?) but it exists.

Ya know, there was nothing on those 18 minutes of White house tapes and nothing on that server either. "Absence of proof is proof of absence!"

If you are going to punish someone for illegally tampering with football equipment, then evidence of that tampering would be useful.

The evidence, based on pre-game and halftime measurements, does nothing to bolster the case that the balls were tampered with. Without even accouningt for the time delay in measuring the Colts four balls at halftime, 8 of 11 of the Patriots balls were within suspected tolerances. And halftime is a natural experiment, because no one is accusing the Colts of tampering. Weather and use had the same effect on each team.

The League's own expert says the single most important factor here is time. And we do not have any records when the balls were measured, meaning the three remaining outside tolerance could be explained simply by the order in which each was examined.

They have the body. The medical examiner cannot determine cause of death.

[mraynrand]

If you are going to punish someone for illegally tampering with football equipment, then evidence of that tampering would be useful.

The evidence, based on pre-game and halftime measurements, does nothing to bolster the case that the balls were tampered with. Without even accouningt for the time delay in measuring the Colts four balls at halftime, 8 of 11 of the Patriots balls were within suspected tolerances. And halftime is a natural experiment, because no one is accusing the Colts of tampering. Weather and use had the same effect on each team.

The League's own expert says the single most important factor here is time. And we do not have any records when the balls were measured, meaning the three remaining outside tolerance could be explained simply by the order in which each was examined.

They have the body. The medical examiner cannot determine cause of death.

No, no no. The "ME" knows the balls are deflated; he can't say how. For example, the old man died from injuries sustained tumbling down the stairs. The ME CANNOT determined whether his wife pushed him or he misstepped. So they have to look on the old bag's cell phone to see whether she texed someone that she can't stand the old bastard one more day. Ooops, the cell phone/server/tapes are missing!

[pbmax]

No, no no. The "ME" knows the balls are deflated; he can't say how. For example, the old man died from injuries sustained tumbling down the stairs. The ME CANNOT determined whether his wife pushed him or he misstepped. So they have to look on the old bag's cell phone to see whether she texed someone that she can't stand the old bastard one more day. Ooops, the cell phone/server/tapes are missing!

No, that doesn't work either because we (in ME case) know the method of the injury. Better to say kidney failure? Maybe blunt force trauma that could have multiple causes?

And the texts are not all missing. They have the employees texts to Brady and the complete phone/text records from AT&T. If Roger wanted Brady's copies of those other messages, he could retrieve them from the 28 NFL related people he conversed with. The evidence did not disappear like Nixon on tape. No one has bothered to retrieve the backup copy in Haldeman's safe.

[sharpe1027]

No, that doesn't work either because we know the method of the injury. Better to say kidney failure? Maybe blunt force trauma that could have multiple causes?

And the texts are not all missing. They have the employees texts to Brady and the complete phone/text records from AT&T. If Roger wanted Brady's copies of those other messages, he could retrieve them from the 28 NFL related people he conversed with. The evidence did not disappear like Nixon on tape. No one has bothered to retrieve the backup copy in Haldeman's safe.

They don't need the texts to make a case. Is it a winner? IDK, but it is a hell of a lot more convincing that you are stating.

[pbmax]

They don't need the texts to make a case. Is it a winner? IDK, but it is a hell of a lot more convincing that you are stating.

Could be. But the lack of texts from Brady is now being cited as one of the two charges against him (the other being clear and convincing/more probable than not knowledge of a scheme).

Knowledge of the scheme, by the way, is a new rule. See Jay Feely.

[sharpe1027]

Could be. But the lack of texts from Brady is now being cited as one of the two charges against him (the other being clear and convincing/more probable than not knowledge of a scheme).

Knowledge of the scheme, by the way, is a new rule. See Jay Feely.

What's wrong with that charge exactly? Is it the NFL's duty to seek out the data that Brady made difficult, if not impossible, to retrieve? Does it matter to the issue of what Brady did that there might be an alternative way of getting the data?

[mraynrand]

No, that doesn't work either because we know the method of the injury.

I don't follow you here at all. The balls were deflated. That's the result. That could have happened 'naturally/acidental' (cooling environment, old man loses equilibrium) or 'unnaturally/deliberately' (needle, old lady pushes)

And the texts are not all missing. They have the employees texts to Brady and the complete phone/text records from AT&T. If Roger wanted Brady's copies of those other messages, he could retrieve them from the 28 NFL related people he conversed with. The evidence did not disappear like Nixon on tape. No one has bothered to retrieve the backup copy in Haldeman's safe.

yes, not all the tapes were missing; not all the server contents are missing. Not all the cell phone chatter is missing. What remains isn't helpful to the argument that deflation wasn't deliberate. But your observation begs the question: what about the missing chatter?

Given my awful experiences with AT&T, would not be surprising if they couldn't retrieve a cold beer from a fridge, let alone 'missing' texts.

[pbmax]

I don't follow you here at all. The balls were deflated. That's the result. That could have happened 'naturally/acidental' (cooling environment, old man loses equilibrium) or 'unnaturally/deliberately' (needle, old lady pushes)

You know the fall and the stairs (+ gravity) caused the injury. The method of football pressure loss is still being debated. In the former, the location and method of injury is known. In the latter both are unknown.

[mraynrand]

You know the fall and the stairs (+ gravity) caused the injury. The method of football pressure loss is still being debated. In the former, the location and method of injury is known. In the latter the method of pressure loss is unknown.

really PB?

loss of pressure = fall/injury. There are various possible explanations for the loss of pressure as for the fall. The point being that the result on it's own is insufficient to determine cause.

The point in this case is that the loss of pressure isn't definitive, so it can't rule in or out claims either way. Have to look elsewhere.

[sharpe1027]

You know the fall and the stairs (+ gravity) caused the injury. The method of football pressure loss is still being debated. In the former, the location and method of injury is known. In the latter both are unknown.

This seems to miss the point, but can we just end the analogy discussion? The scientific evidence for whether a needle was used is inconclusive either way. Agree to move on?

[sharpe1027]

If you are going to punish someone for illegally tampering with football equipment, then evidence of that tampering would be useful.

The evidence, based on pre-game and halftime measurements, does nothing to bolster the case that the balls were tampered with. Without even accouningt for the time delay in measuring the Colts four balls at halftime, 8 of 11 of the Patriots balls were within suspected tolerances. And halftime is a natural experiment, because no one is accusing the Colts of tampering. Weather and use had the same effect on each team.

The League's own expert says the single most important factor here is time. And we do not have any records when the balls were measured, meaning the three remaining outside tolerance could be explained simply by the order in which each was examined.

They have the body. The medical examiner cannot determine cause of death.

PB, they have evidence of tampering. We've been through 100 times this but you keep going back to the well. Just assume the evidence on PSI is inconclusive so we can move on, and not have to rehash again.

The guy basically stole the balls from the refs and took them directly into the bathroom (and he is not even in charge of the balls). When they investigated his text messages, and they were ridiculously damning. Brady destroyed a phone that might have further damning text messages. I say hang 'em high.