Grading the Packer's Draft

[RashanGary]

This was the year after the Covid season. It was, like this year, a historically thin draft. If the grade is a C based on normal expectations, he probably performed at about B level compared to the rest of the league that year.

Likewise, this years draft probably won’t be so great in the mid to later rounds either.

[sharpe1027]

True. You can "grade" a draft for whether the team stuck to a coherent plan, whether they addressed positional needs, and that sort of thing, but you can't grade the picks themselves until you're at least two seasons in, probably three.

So if Quay Walker and Devonte Wyatt don't take that one more step, then you can probably say that draft was not so great, in terms of the first round. They're both starting-caliber, which is good, but both seem to have not quite met the first-round expectations. Though this could be that year.

Your first round expectations are higher than mine.

[run pMc]

This was the year after the Covid season. It was, like this year, a historically thin draft. If the grade is a C based on normal expectations, he probably performed at about B level compared to the rest of the league that year.

Likewise, this years draft probably won’t be so great in the mid to later rounds either.

COVID definitely impacted the draft.
Getting an extra year meant you have more older prospects coming out.

NIL is the other piece to the puzzle. Combined with getting an extra year of eligibility from COVID, players have less incentive to declare early. In 2021 it might have resulted in a thinner draft, but I don't think 2024 was a thinner draft because of it. I actually think NIL makes for more robust drafts -- you have better developed players or players with more demonstrated production at the college level for scouts.

The talent at specific positions also varies by year (this year's QB class = very good, this year's ILB class = not so good)... so RG you're not wrong but I just think there are a lot of factors in play you didn't mention.

[MadScientist]

This year's draft may have been weakened by fewer players starting college in 2020, due to COVID.

[RashanGary]

COVID definitely impacted the draft.
Getting an extra year meant you have more older prospects coming out.

NIL is the other piece to the puzzle. Combined with getting an extra year of eligibility from COVID, players have less incentive to declare early. In 2021 it might have resulted in a thinner draft, but I don't think 2024 was a thinner draft because of it. I actually think NIL makes for more robust drafts -- you have better developed players or players with more demonstrated production at the college level for scouts.

The talent at specific positions also varies by year (this year's QB class = very good, this year's ILB class = not so good)... so RG you're not wrong but I just think there are a lot of factors in play you didn't mention.

There were only 50 juniors that came out. Usually it’s 100. Juniors are staying back because of the NIL and portal. They make money at school now.

Next year there will be more seniors so next years draft will go back to being deeper.

[sharpe1027]

There were only 50 juniors that came out. Usually it’s 100. Juniors are staying back because of the NIL and portal. They make money at school now.

Next year there will be more seniors so next years draft will go back to being deeper.

Until the next lawsuit came me to challenge the NCAA's ability to limit eligibility based years played.

[Scott Campbell]

There were only 50 juniors that came out. Usually it’s 100. Juniors are staying back because of the NIL and portal. They make money at school now.

Next year there will be more seniors so next years draft will go back to being deeper.

Cam Rising (Utah QB) will be 25 in two weeks, and he's back for another year. I think it's something crazy like 7 total because of COVID, injuries and NIL money. I think he's now the George Blanda of college football.