Rough time at bargaining table

[CaliforniaCheez]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d806b55a5&template=with-video&confirm=true&campaign=ec0005

"Whatever (Cory) Williams was worth last September," said one league personnel man, "it's triple that now, and it can only get worse."

No serious negotiations happened after Brandt resigned and before Ball set up his office.

It appears the Packers will either tag Williams or get a late tird round pick for him next year as compensation.

[RashanGary]

I still think the tag would be a good way to go.

[oregonpackfan]

I still think the tag would be a good way to go.

I agree. Harrell hasn't played like a starter thus far. The Packers need Williams.

[Bretsky]

Completely agree; it's likely CW will be the top DL in free agency

Tag him and at least get one more year from him to see if he takes another step. Worst case is we overpay him for a year.

If he gets to FA he's gone

[Lurker64]

How much cap room would he cost if tagged? I believe an exclusive franchise tag would pay him the average of the top 5 paid DTs for 2008, but a non-exclusive franchise tag would pay him the average of the top 5 paid DTs for 2007 but would allow him to negotiate with other teams, but I don't have any numbers. Isuppose tagging him is going to come down to whether or not Ted plans on pursuing any potentially expensive free agents this offseason, as well as what the coaching staff (who knows more than we do) thinks of Harrell's progress.

[BlueBrewer]

Let him go. He is avg at best, Teddy won't spend it anyway.

[Pacopete4]

john jolly is better

[PackerBlues]

I would not expect Thompson to spend that much on keeping Williams. Main reason being that even with him, the D-line was not able to pressure the opposing QB on any of the good teams that the Packers played against anyway. I think and would actually hope, that Thompson will either give Harrell a chance to step up, and/or draft a promising young DT. He could also just give Williams a tender that would at least get the Packers a draft pick if he leaves. I honestly do not think that Williams is worth a franchise tag, and if he is the best DT available, it is simply by default.

It is also my opinion, that Williams is at best a secondary concern compared to our problem with the interior O-line. I do not care if Thompson does it with Free Agency or if he addresses it in the draft, the O-line needs to be fixed. The pocket collapsed far to often last year, and I will say it again........Favre made our Guards look far better than they were, simply by getting rid of the ball quickly, and by doing an outstanding job of avoiding the sack.

Other than that, I think Nutz said it best, when he talked about what an excellent opportunity this off season will be for Thompson to simply improve the teams depth. If nothing else, we should all expect the Packers to be even better next season if Thompson simply went that route, and improves the teams depth. At the very least, that is what I expect to see, and anything more than that will be more than enough to make me happy.

[sepporepi]

He could also just give Williams a tender that would at least get the Packers a draft pick if he leaves.


Which tender ?

He is an UFA. The only "tender" possible which would give us a draft pick if he leaves is the non-exclusive franchise tag.


Personally I think it is a good idea to tag him. Even if we sign 2 big time free agents it should be possible to tag him:

We have about 20millions left, with some cuts and restructuring it will be about 22-25million effectively. We can sign 3 guys for about 6million yearly and still sign our draft picks and have a little extra.

The tag is about 6,5 millions. Lets asume we give 1 guy a 20million sign bonus for 5 years and one guy 10millions for 3 years. That would lead to tag values of roughly 6 and 4,5 millions in year 1 with reasenable low base salaries.

Next year Williams will be gone, we free up 6,5 millions from the cap, Brett retires, we gain another 11millions, the cap goes up again and we sit again 20millions below the cap. So we dont mortify the future. 8-)

[twoseven]

A one year rental is hardly hurting anything with our current cap if you are indeed letting him walk next year, KGB may be going with him. The fact that Allen, Haynesworth, Suggs, etc. are all getting tagged seems the bigger problem. If CW is on the market with all threee of those better players (IMO) his FA price is not nearly what it will be this year if he's out there on his own. Drop the franchise on him and I would hope a couple of those names do reach FA next year, not to mention some others like Vandenbosch, etc. Pay him for the one year. See if Harrell, Jolly, Muir, Cole, the potential draftees, etc might make CW less necessary next season. Then worry about this mess after 08', I have a feeling we'll be in a much better negotiating place.

[red]

let him go

we have pickett, whose our best DT, then we have jolly and cole, both are very good.

then theres last years #1 pick whose also a DT.

we have more then enough talent at DT

CW is good, but nowhere near as good as a franchise tag. one of the top 5 DT's in the nfl? not by a long shot

[Joemailman]

Only one of CW's 7 sacks came after he was inserted in the starting lineup following Jolly's injury. He has proven to be a very good rotational player, but becomes less effective the more he plays. Is this the kind of guy you franchise? I doubt it, especially when you have a 1st round pick waiting in the wings.

[b bulldog]

6.5 for a guy who got 1 sack and 14 tackles in his last 8 games as a starter is a tad steep imo. I hope he goes if he only stays if we over pay him.

[pbmax]

I think JoeM is right, as a situational player, Williams excelled at putting pressure on the QB. I don't think T2 will be paying the following money on a situational player. The amounts below are for non-exclusive Franchise Players I believe:

from the Nashville Tennessean
By PAUL KUHARSKY • Staff Writer • February 7, 2008
http://www.tennessean.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080207/SPORTS01/802070399/1027/RSS0201

HOW TOP FIVE AVERAGE IS DETERMINED

2007 DT salaries that determine 2008 franchise number, according to the NFL Players Association:
Player | Team | Millions
Dewayne Robertson: Jets $7.391
Warren Sapp: Raiders $6.297
Cornelius Griffin: Redskins $6.166
Albert Haynesworth: Titans $6.041
Rod Coleman: Falcons $5.917

FRANCHISE TAG FACTS

Franchise tag salaries for 2008 by position:
Position | Millions
Quarterback $10.73
Cornerback $9.465
Defensive end $8.879
Linebacker $8.065
Wide receiver $7.848
Offensive line $7.455
Defensive tackle $6.363
Running back $6.538
Tight end $4.522
Safety $4.396
Kicker/punter $2.514[/b]

[Bretsky]

let him go

we have pickett, whose our best DT, then we have jolly and cole, both are very good.

then theres last years #1 pick whose also a DT.

we have more then enough talent at DT

CW is good, but nowhere near as good as a franchise tag. one of the top 5 DT's in the nfl? not by a long shot

Cole is very good :?:

[Bretsky]

6.5 for a guy who got 1 sack and 14 tackles in his last 8 games as a starter is a tad steep imo. I hope he goes if he only stays if we over pay him.

Why don't you judge him over the past two years ? Why just select the last 8 games ?

[Spaulding]

Money wise, whether he's worth or not is a non-issue. Barring Allen, Haynesworth or some other high end FA eating our free cap money we have more than we need this off season.

Value wise, no way is CW worth 6+ million. He was exposed for what he is (player who excels in rotation but is average when full time starter) in the last half of the season and given the money we already have invested in the DL it wouldn't make much sense.

The big issue to me would be dynamics. If we pay CW 6+ million for the tender, how does that impact the motivation/chemistry with Jenkins or Kampman who signed contracts within the last 1-2 years and where CW would be making more. Also, other full time starters who make substantially less but have a greater impact, how would they view this?

[RashanGary]

There is a little side issue that I'm concerned with thsi as well.

By drafting well and not going into UFA, you get the benefit of a sheltered lockerroom. Rather than really seeing how overblown some salaries are, our lockerroom only sees what the guys around them get paid. If CW leaves and gets 150% of Kampmans deal, everyone in the Packers lockerroom is going to say WTF, I know what I'm worth. I'm worth more than that and I'm getting much less than that.

[b bulldog]

I judge him over the last 8 games because that was when he played on a every down basis and wasn't given the breaks of being a rotation player. This clearly shows that he is a different player when he is an every down player and he is not even good enough to start here but you want to pay a backup 6.5 next year?? I doubt very highly that TT will do that and I'm thankful that he won't.

[RashanGary]

I judge him over the last 8 games because that was when he played on a every down basis and wasn't given the breaks of being a rotation player. This clearly shows that he is a different player when he is an every down player and he is not even good enough to start here but you want to pay a backup 6.5 next year?? I doubt very highly that TT will do that and I'm thankful that he won't.

Justin Smith of Cincy had a similar situation last year. He played on a thin line, not getting much help and had a bad year. He's still a good player (similar to C-Dub IMO).

No, he's not a difference maker, but you have to remember that this 6.25 franchise tender is REALLY low right now in relation to the inflation. No big deals have been struck since the big increase and this is already the third year after the increase. 6 mil now is like 4 mil three years ago. It's really not a large percentage of the cap and it's only one year.

[Bretsky]

I judge him over the last 8 games because that was when he played on a every down basis and wasn't given the breaks of being a rotation player. This clearly shows that he is a different player when he is an every down player and he is not even good enough to start here but you want to pay a backup 6.5 next year?? I doubt very highly that TT will do that and I'm thankful that he won't.

Nobody argues he's a stud as an everydown player. I'd chose to judge him for what he has done while everybody is healthy. Those sack totals are very good. Truth be told if you breakdown those stats it shows he has a lot of value when he's used the way he should be.

Is he worth franchise money ? No. But many still feel it might be a wise move for a year.

[RashanGary]

I really think JH is going to come on this year and I think Jolly will too. However, I don't want one injury to put us in the situation we were in last year. Just because JH and Jolly might turn out better doesn't mean we can't use antoher good one. The less everyone has to play the better everyone will be (esspecially in the 4th quarter when defenses usually cave)

[RashanGary]

Is he worth franchise money ? No. But many still feel it might be a wise move for a year.

Bretsky, franchise money sin't even franchise money (as we know it). When those deals (the ones effecting the franchise tag) were struck, the cap has gone up 35%. 6 mil is really like 4.44 mil of three years ago.

This is a unique time for the franchise tag. The cap has gone up, but the salaries havn't yet. It really makes the tags affordable and usable on players that don't usually get them.

I stand by my C-Dub should be tagged theory and I think he will be. I don't think everyone is connecting how this is a different year for the tag. They just say "the tag is the tag", but it can be different at different times in each CBA.

[Patler]

6.5 for a guy who got 1 sack and 14 tackles in his last 8 games as a starter is a tad steep imo. I hope he goes if he only stays if we over pay him.

I think that is too much, too, longterm. But for one more year it would not bother me that much.

As for his sacks, his "starts", etc:

1. Three of Williams' sacks came in games he started, 2 against KC, a game he started, and 1 against Detroit, also a game he started.

2. When Jolly was injured, one article mentioned that Williams was playing more snaps/game then Jolly anyway; so what is the significance of "starting".

3. The bigger problem was a number of injuries hit the DL all at one. Cole went down for good the week after Jolly. KGB was hurt that same week, missed the next week and likely was slowed after that. Pickett was hurt two weeks later and missed the final two games. It wasn't just that Williams was "starting", the entire complexion of the DL changed, almost on a weekly basis the last 6 games of the season.

[b bulldog]

We can agree to disagree but all I know is that after the Panthers game, our passrush was BAD!!!!!!!!! and as far as I can remember, 99 was getting a great deal of reps than and really never did much. If you read many of the game threads, many in here were voicing the same thing about 99 being MIA when he was really asked to step up. In the long run, if he gets tagged, it doesn't really hurt the team. The way Tt spends money, I doubt he tags him, in fact, I'd be shocked to see TT pay a reserve that kind of money. IMO, it may come down to this, would you like to see TT give 99 all that money when he doesn't even start and you already have a good rotation when healthy or would you like to see TT frontload UFA contracts as he usually does, with a young DB and a OG or a good DE? A rotation of Pickett, Jolly, Harrell, Muir, Cole, and Jenkins if moved inside, would be very strong.

[Patler]

Maybe you can explain the significance of being the "starter" for the Packers DTs, especially since, when both were healthy, Williams was playing more snaps/game than Jolly was? Who cares which player was out there for the opening snap on defense?

[b bulldog]

My point here is that when Jolly was down along with Cole, 99 played much more than he was and was putting up numbers that were quite a bit lower than when he could rest. I doubt he is a dominant player at all when he isn't ian a deep rotation.

[twoseven]

Are we not expecting our DTs to be healthy at season's start this year? If that's when CW was at his most productive it seems to me he could be again, and if our DTs are getting hurt again where are you left on the depth charts if CW is not there? I guess I would like to know why one year rental with our space is a bad idea. To me worst case scenario is Harrel and Jolly prove we don't need CW and he's gone next year.

[RashanGary]

Are we not expecting our DTs to be healthy at season's start this year? If that's when CW was at his most productive it seems to me he could be again, and if our DTs are getting hurt again where are you left on the depth charts if CW is not there? I guess I would like to know why one year rental with our space is a bad idea. To me worst case scenario is Harrel and Jolly prove we don't need CW and he's gone next year.

I agree.


Also, if things pan out like the 1st round pick of #91 would suggest TT thinks they will, we'll have another really good DT in 2008.

Then, if Harrell or Jolly go down. we still have Pickett, Jolly and Williams remainging and Williams will still be in a position to succeed.

DL is the one spot where you pay backups like starters because they play just as much as starters.

[Bretsky]

Is he worth franchise money ? No. But many still feel it might be a wise move for a year.

Bretsky, franchise money sin't even franchise money (as we know it). When those deals (the ones effecting the franchise tag) were struck, the cap has gone up 35%. 6 mil is really like 4.44 mil of three years ago.

This is a unique time for the franchise tag. The cap has gone up, but the salaries havn't yet. It really makes the tags affordable and usable on players that don't usually get them.

I stand by my C-Dub should be tagged theory and I think he will be. I don't think everyone is connecting how this is a different year for the tag. They just say "the tag is the tag", but it can be different at different times in each CBA.


Great Points

I am of the belief TT won't tag CW though. Hard to read either way though

[HarveyWallbangers]

No way I'd tag him. I'd let him walk. Use the money to tie up more important players long-term.

[RashanGary]

We'll know what Ted decides to do within 4 days. The deadline is the 21st. A week after that, the frenzy begins. It should be a fun two months leading up to the draft.

[Deputy Nutz]

No way I'd tag him. I'd let him walk. Use the money to tie up more important players long-term.

See this is what some on here don't understand. the Packers have 26 million dollars in cap space that doesn't need to go to signing new free agents or their own free agents. They can front load extended contracts to guys that will be free agents in 2008 and 2009.

[RashanGary]

I think he's going to get tagged. It makes the most sense.

[red]

i agree with what someone said about pissing off everyone else on the team that is more important if you franchise him. like kampman, pickett or jenkins. they are all better players

we have a plethora of talent at DT, that are all very close to each other talent wise IMO. why overspend to keep one of them? even if we can easily afford it, it just sets a horrible example of overspending when you really don't need too.

this is reminding me of another young DT. CLEDIUS HUNT!!!!!!!!!!!!!

course CW is not a fat lazy pot head, and he has actually showed some potential. but we still might end up paying top dollar for a guy thats just a backup

[RashanGary]

i agree with what someone said about pissing off everyone else on the team that is more important if you franchise him. like kampman, pickett or jenkins. they are all better players

we have a plethora of talent at DT, that are all very close to each other talent wise IMO. why overspend to keep one of them? even if we can easily afford it, it just sets a horrible example of overspending when you really don't need too.

this is reminding me of another young DT. CLEDIUS HUNT!!!!!!!!!!!!!

course CW is not a fat lazy pot head, and he has actually showed some potential. but we still might end up paying top dollar for a guy thats just a backup

No, Jenkins gets 4 mil per. Williams is probably more valuable than that. Plus the price to play goes up every year. Players understand this.

You know what wont' sit will with Kampman and Pickett? If Williams hits UFA and strikes a deal averageing 8.5 million per year with 18 mil up front. Crazy as it sounds, UFA is acctually that crazy. If htye see him leave on a 6 year, 50 million dollar deal you can bet they'll be a lot more pissed than if he gets a one year 6.25 million dollar deal.

There is a little pressure to not let him get away just because it will show everyoen else what they are really worth. The tag does two things, it lessens the chance of revolt because 6.25 is fair in comparision to what Jenkins got and his UFA deal most certainly will not be. The other reason is because C-dub is a really good player and the franchise tag is low right now. He's worth it.

[Guiness]

6.5 for a guy who got 1 sack and 14 tackles in his last 8 games as a starter is a tad steep imo. I hope he goes if he only stays if we over pay him.

Why don't you judge him over the past two years ? Why just select the last 8 games ?

I think you're just playing devil's advocate here and you know the reason here...because that's when he was finally called on to be a 'starter' as opposed to 'situational'.

I put quotes around those words because I don't feel they apply. Is Jolly a starter just because he's in at the beginning of the game? By definition only. It just happens to be a running situation.

Obviously, he didn't excel playing obvious running situations - same as KGB didn't when Sherman started putting him in on first down. Then, same as KGB, it seemed to affect the rest of his game.

Although I agree that he's not one of the top 5 DT's in the league, the FT is not about that, and we all know it. It might've been intended that way, and would be if the cap was more stable, but with the cap jumping every year, it's become just a way to retain the services of a good player.

[vince]

JH, you are often correct when analyzing situations like this and making predictions, but I'm throwing down along side Harv, bulldog, joe, etc. on this one. (Sorry to ruin your argument guys.)

Use the money to lock someone up that is part of the long-term plan. I don't think we'll be any worse off for having Harrell, Cole and possibly Muir part of the regular rotation next year. I think Cole is as good as he's going to get, but its very reasonable to expect Harrelll and even Muir to come off their first offseason program as improved professionals. Harrell's athletic enough to have a good chance at becoming a pass rusher in addition to run stuffer.

[RashanGary]

I acctually think there is a good chance Williams is our 4th best tackle next year but we could have some very good ones so it's not that big of a knock.

Pickett is better
Jolly is better and should be even more so next year.
Harrell (I have a lot of confidence in him. He's talented, but he also loves football, has a knack for the game and is willing to work at it)


However, as we found out last year, three good ones aren't enough for the whole year. It's greedy, but I acctually think you need four or five capable DT's and if you have 4 starters, that's not a waste of cap space because they are all used.

I completely disagree with your assesment of Cole. I think he's below average and any time he's playing he makes the team worse. I don't want to count on him. As far as Muir goes, he showed a pretty explosive first step when he played. He could be a good pass rusher from the interior, but I just don't know enough yet so I just can't base my opinion on expecting Muir or Cole to be the guy when we get that one inevitable injury or when we need a rotation player.

Ultimately it's in the hands of TT to make the call. I'll go along with whatever he does but my initial opinion is that Williams is worth the 6.25. If he doesn't get tagged, I think we're all going to look like this :shock: when his contract numbers come out. I think that tag is going to look like a bargain.

[RashanGary]

IF Williams makes it to UFA, I'm predicting his contract to be in the 6 year, 45 million dollar range with about 15 up front.

We're the only team that has the one year, 6.25 option and you have to remember this is the best year of the rest of his career as far as him being in his physical prime.

We'll see, Vince. I see the arguement against him but I think there is more value to the #4 DT than the third starting LB or starting FB. I just think it's a very important position and we have the option between impact and a weakness and it only costs a one year commitment of 6.25 to have impact. You also have to remember that having him trickles down to everyone else. By resting Pickett, Jolly and Harrell they'll all be better when they're in. By having Williams, you can sit down the other guys if they have a moderate knee or ankle rather than forcing them through it. Over the course of the year, that depth would pay off even if it costs 6.25.

[vince]

I wouldn't be the least bit upset if Williams is tagged either.

[Bretsky]

JH, you are often correct when analyzing situations like this and making predictions, but I'm throwing down along side Harv, bulldog, joe, etc. on this one. (Sorry to ruin your argument guys.)

Use the money to lock someone up that is part of the long-term plan. I don't think we'll be any worse off for having Harrell, Cole and possibly Muir part of the regular rotation next year. I think Cole is as good as he's going to get, but its very reasonable to expect Harrelll and even Muir to come off their first offseason program as improved professionals. Harrell's athletic enough to have a good chance at becoming a pass rusher in addition to run stuffer.

Hey, you haven't ruined any argument from what I can see :wink:

I can certainly see the view of those that don't want to throw the franchise on CW because it may offend others or he's simply not worth it....or not part of a longer term plan.

But Coll or Muhr ? I won't count on those guys for much at this point.

Cole is an end of the depth chart DL. Good enough to make a roster IMO but not much more. Nowhere near Williams.

Muhr, we have no idea what we have in him. He's shown glimpses I guess. But it certainly a stretch to count on these two IMO to pick up any slack left from Williams departure.

We could say the same for Harrell as well, although based on his college career it would be reasonable for him to develop into being solid soon.

[Guiness]

I'd generally agree that they should lock guys up Vince, but who do you suggest? No one jumps out at me as needing a new deal.

A couple could stand upgrades. Jolly, but as was pointed out elsewhere, they've got him cheap for a while. Grant - same situation. GJ? Don't know what he's got left. Other than that, there's not a lot that have proven themselves worthy. The proven players on D are locked up, and the rest haven't shown themselves to be anything more than 'just guys'. They're not going to throw money at Montgomery or Walker! An argument could be made for Bigby, but that's it.

What should've happened is that they should have locked up Williams LAST offseason. Hindsight's 20-20 though...

[Bretsky]

I'd generally agree that they should lock guys up Vince, but who do you suggest? No one jumps out at me as needing a new deal.

A couple could stand upgrades. Jolly, but as was pointed out elsewhere, they've got him cheap for a while. Grant - same situation. GJ? Don't know what he's got left. Other than that, there's not a lot that have proven themselves worthy. The proven players on D are locked up, and the rest haven't shown themselves to be anything more than 'just guys'. They're not going to throw money at Montgomery or Walker! An argument could be made for Bigby, but that's it.

What should've happened is that they should have locked up Williams LAST offseason. Hindsight's 20-20 though...


Bingo; part of the reasoning to consider franchising CW is the rising cap, the fact that we are in good shape, and nobdoy near term we have to lock up. Of course part of Vince's views is we should lock Grant up now.....but that is a whole nother argument that has already been debated in some detail.

[Guiness]

Ultimately it's in the hands of TT to make the call. I'll go along with whatever he does but my initial opinion is that Williams is worth the 6.25. If he doesn't get tagged, I think we're all going to look like this :shock: when his contract numbers come out. I think that tag is going to look like a bargain.

Fully agree with the :shock:. Someone's going to look and say "How many sacks? From a DT??? Give him the bank!!!"

[vince]

I'd generally agree that they should lock guys up Vince, but who do you suggest? No one jumps out at me as needing a new deal.

A couple could stand upgrades. Jolly, but as was pointed out elsewhere, they've got him cheap for a while. Grant - same situation. GJ? Don't know what he's got left. Other than that, there's not a lot that have proven themselves worthy. The proven players on D are locked up, and the rest haven't shown themselves to be anything more than 'just guys'. They're not going to throw money at Montgomery or Walker! An argument could be made for Bigby, but that's it.

What should've happened is that they should have locked up Williams LAST offseason. Hindsight's 20-20 though...I'm an advocate for locking Grant up for 4 or 5 years and $15-$20 mil. I believe that would prove to be money very well spent. Also, Tauscher (08), Jennings (09), Jolly (09), Spitz (09), Kampman (09), Bigby (07), Pickett (08), Rodgers (09), Collins (09), Popp (08), Blackmon (09) and others are all possibilities that they'll want to be looking at this year or next. Having the luxury of seeing how next season progresses for these players will also be beneficial, so I'm not saying they should spend it NOW, but for this year's cap... Additionally, I think a free agent OG and possibly SLB could be a possibility this offseason.

[vince]

JH, you are often correct when analyzing situations like this and making predictions, but I'm throwing down along side Harv, bulldog, joe, etc. on this one. (Sorry to ruin your argument guys.)

Use the money to lock someone up that is part of the long-term plan. I don't think we'll be any worse off for having Harrell, Cole and possibly Muir part of the regular rotation next year. I think Cole is as good as he's going to get, but its very reasonable to expect Harrelll and even Muir to come off their first offseason program as improved professionals. Harrell's athletic enough to have a good chance at becoming a pass rusher in addition to run stuffer.

Hey, you haven't ruined any argument from what I can see :wink:

I can certainly see the view of those that don't want to throw the franchise on CW because it may offend others or he's simply not worth it....or not part of a longer term plan.

But Coll or Muhr ? I won't count on those guys for much at this point.

Cole is an end of the depth chart DL. Good enough to make a roster IMO but not much more. Nowhere near Williams.

Muhr, we have no idea what we have in him. He's shown glimpses I guess. But it certainly a stretch to count on these two IMO to pick up any slack left from Williams departure.

We could say the same for Harrell as well, although based on his college career it would be reasonable for him to develop into being solid soon.If Williams is gone, you've got Pickett, Jolly, and Harrell as the main rotation, with Cole in spot rotation. Muir would be on the 53-man, but likely would not suit up and is injury insurance. It's also likely that we'll have another rookie vying for one of those spots. I would have to believe TT goes after someone in the draft in the mid- late rounds that can play inside.

[Bretsky]

JH, you are often correct when analyzing situations like this and making predictions, but I'm throwing down along side Harv, bulldog, joe, etc. on this one. (Sorry to ruin your argument guys.)

Use the money to lock someone up that is part of the long-term plan. I don't think we'll be any worse off for having Harrell, Cole and possibly Muir part of the regular rotation next year. I think Cole is as good as he's going to get, but its very reasonable to expect Harrelll and even Muir to come off their first offseason program as improved professionals. Harrell's athletic enough to have a good chance at becoming a pass rusher in addition to run stuffer.

Hey, you haven't ruined any argument from what I can see :wink:

I can certainly see the view of those that don't want to throw the franchise on CW because it may offend others or he's simply not worth it....or not part of a longer term plan.

But Coll or Muhr ? I won't count on those guys for much at this point.

Cole is an end of the depth chart DL. Good enough to make a roster IMO but not much more. Nowhere near Williams.

Muhr, we have no idea what we have in him. He's shown glimpses I guess. But it certainly a stretch to count on these two IMO to pick up any slack left from Williams departure.

We could say the same for Harrell as well, although based on his college career it would be reasonable for him to develop into being solid soon.If Williams is gone, you've got Pickett, Jolly, and Harrell as the main rotation, with Cole in spot rotation. Muir would be on the 53-man, but likely would not suit up and is injury insurance. It's also likely that we'll have another rookie vying for one of those spots. I would have to believe TT goes after someone in the draft in the mid- late rounds that can play inside.


I will say this; if TT will pony up and sign an URA offensive guard, as you suggested....then taking the gamble of losing CW may be worth it. When you eliminate him from the equations IMO we are painfully thin if an injury occurs.

In another thread I had listed some OG's who might be of interest; I just don't have the confidence TT will pony up the cash to bring them here.

With that being said, our cap is so healthy we could do both as well, and wait a year on Grant.

[Lurker64]

If Williams is gone, you've got Pickett, Jolly, and Harrell as the main rotation, with Cole in spot rotation. Muir would be on the 53-man, but likely would not suit up and is injury insurance. It's also likely that we'll have another rookie vying for one of those spots. I would have to believe TT goes after someone in the draft in the mid- late rounds that can play inside.

I'm also wondering what Thompson saw in Bolston. Was he just injury insurance and a rotation guy, or does he have some upside after an NFL offseason. We saw very, very little of him as fans but our coaches and scouts have seen a lot more about him.

[Guiness]

I'm an advocate for locking Grant up for 4 or 5 years and $15-$20 mil. I believe that would prove to be money very well spent. Also, Tauscher (08), Jennings (09), Jolly (09), Spitz (09), Kampman (09), Bigby (07), Pickett (08), Rodgers (09), Collins (09), Popp (08), Blackmon (09) and others are all possibilities that they'll want to be looking at this year or next. Having the luxury of seeing how next season progresses for these players will also be beneficial, so I'm not saying they should spend it NOW, but for this year's cap... Additionally, I think a free agent OG and possibly SLB could be a possibility this offseason.

Looking at this list, IMO that's kind of my point. Popp and Collins seem to be 'just guys'. Blackmon is totally unproven. Jennings, Jolly and Bigby I mentioned. You put Bigby as 07, but he's exlusive rights, so isn't going anywhere.

Tauscher's a tough call, but wouldn't hurt to extend him. Pickett, of course. I hope they talk to him this season. Kampman's got another season, and they just gave him more money...

That leave Spitz and Rodgers. Spitz won't be much money at this point. Rodgers is a wild card. Who know what happens with him???

[twoseven]

Funny how two of the DTs whose salaries are determining the franchise price (Coleman and Sapp) are without a job.

[b bulldog]

Don't forget Rodgers and I wouldn't jumop the gun with Grant either. Let him show us all he can do it for more than one season, nothing wrong with that. Jennings may also be looked at after next season for an extension.

[vince]

I'm an advocate for locking Grant up for 4 or 5 years and $15-$20 mil. I believe that would prove to be money very well spent. Also, Tauscher (08), Jennings (09), Jolly (09), Spitz (09), Kampman (09), Bigby (07), Pickett (08), Rodgers (09), Collins (09), Popp (08), Blackmon (09) and others are all possibilities that they'll want to be looking at this year or next. Having the luxury of seeing how next season progresses for these players will also be beneficial, so I'm not saying they should spend it NOW, but for this year's cap... Additionally, I think a free agent OG and possibly SLB could be a possibility this offseason.

Looking at this list, IMO that's kind of my point. Popp and Collins seem to be 'just guys'. Blackmon is totally unproven. Jennings, Jolly and Bigby I mentioned. You put Bigby as 07, but he's exlusive rights, so isn't going anywhere.

Tauscher's a tough call, but wouldn't hurt to extend him. Pickett, of course. I hope they talk to him this season. Kampman's got another season, and they just gave him more money...

That leave Spitz and Rodgers. Spitz won't be much money at this point. Rodgers is a wild card. Who know what happens with him???Every one of those guys are starters or projected starters and, assuming they project out, will need to be re-signed. You can put question marks on some of them, but you can't ignore 'em... They all add up quickly when you're talking about needing to sign them in short succession.

Add in some or all of Colledge, Coston, Moll, White, Williams, Bush, Martin, Robinson, Ryan, and others as key veteran depth in the next two years, and you've got a shitload of contributors that you'd like to hold onto for as cheap as possible...

I'm usually not wishy-washy, but in this case I'm not really against tagging Williams either. Doing so would be a positive for next year, which could be the year the trophy returns...

[Patler]

No defensive tackle in the NFL has as many or more sacks over the last two years than Corey Williams has. I'm not sure what that means, but it is what it is. It wasn't because of a fluke year. He has had seven each year.

As for him fading when called on to start, has everyone forgotten that he was the starter for most of 2006? His production was virtually identical to what it was this year, 7 sacks each year, 26 solo tackles each year, 2 passes defensed in 2006, 1 pass defensed and 1 interception in 2007.

[MJZiggy]

Could any of the sacks be coming from pressure elsewhere, like, say Kampman driving the QB right at Williams?

[b bulldog]

Kampy is our sack guy, he usually commands the attention. I don't see much collapsing of the pocket, I think if anything, KGB and Kampy usually force the QB to step up in the pocket, which would help 99 in regards to sacks.

[HarveyWallbangers]

I acctually think there is a good chance Williams is our 4th best tackle next year but we could have some very good ones so it's not that big of a knock.

Pickett is better
Jolly is better and should be even more so next year.
Harrell (I have a lot of confidence in him. He's talented, but he also loves football, has a knack for the game and is willing to work at it)

I also think Thompson will look to acquire even more DL talent. Jenkins can move inside also.

[b bulldog]

In my perfect scenario, we pick up a good DE who can play every down and move 77 inside and let 99 walk. Nick, I don't see where your observations on Harrel come from?? I hope he really turns it on next season but to say he has a knack for football and is willing to work at it, where does this come from??

I posted a few months ago that Harrell told McCarren that he wants to stay in GB all offseason to work out but I need to to see him do this, not just talk about doing it..

[RashanGary]

In my perfect scenario, we pick up a good DE who can play every down and move 77 inside and let 99 walk. Nick, I don't see where your observations on Harrel come from?? I hope he really turns it on next season but to say he has a knack for football and is willing to work at it, where does this come from??


Everything about Harrell coming out was that he was a warrior on the field and a hard worker off of it. I've heard mulitple quotes on Harrell, including one as the season ended from Thompson saying he wants to be good and he's going to work at it. Everything that's ever been said about his character has been glowing.

I'm excited to see him and Jolly (hopefully Jolly can keep his legs strong with the shoulder recovering).

[RashanGary]

The only good DE out there is Justin Smith. He'd be a good addition though and sliding Jenkins inside as the pass rush specialist would be ideal.

UFA's command top dollar though. It would be hard to compete with teams willing to slit their own throat for a good but nothing special player.

EDIT: Wait, the Titans had a couple decent ones on the open market too, right?

[Bretsky]

The only good DE out there is Justin Smith. He'd be a good addition though and sliding Jenkins inside as the pass rush specialist would be ideal.

UFA's command top dollar though. It would be hard to compete with teams willing to slit their own throat for a good but nothing special player.

EDIT: Wait, the Titans had a couple decent ones on the open market too, right?

Hayenworth was the guy everybody liked, but he'll get tagged

Antwan Odom is a very good DE; here is a blurp. He'll get huge bucks though

2. Antwan Odom, DE, Tennessee Titans: In a league starved for pass rushers, here's a 26-year old coming off an eight-sack season. The Titans will be hard-pressed to keep him considering they will have to franchise Haynesworth.

[RashanGary]

It's tough. You have to draft well, that's the bottom line. I'm really hoping for some big time DE's over the next couple years from the draft. I just don't see us ever diving too deeply into the FA pool. There are going to be some contracts taht make your jaw drop over the next couple weeks.

[KYPack]

Man, this is a great thread. I'm sure they did try to tie Williams up, but these guys have agents. His agent knew if he came with a decent sack year, he'd break the bank. Either he gets tagged or he hits FA as a top Dtackle. Either way, the kid's a millionaire.

He will walk. We've got other options. Teams have to let quality players walk when they exceed the team's figure they have budgeted for that guy & his spot. Look at NE, they've let superstar talent walk because they don't fit their dollar matrix. We will do the same and Corey will become an FA.

[Bretsky]

Man, this is a great thread. I'm sure they did try to tie Williams up, but these guys have agents. His agent knew if he came with a decent sack year, he'd break the bank. Either he gets tagged or he hits FA as a top Dtackle. Either way, the kid's a millionaire.

He will walk. We've got other options. Teams have to let quality players walk when they exceed the team's figure they have budgeted for that guy & his spot. Look at NE, they've let superstar talent walk because they don't fit their dollar matrix. We will do the same and Corey will become an FA.

Yes, kudos to this thread; nice to see some good Packer football talk being effectively debated in the slow times

[The Leaper]

Damn.

Some of you are the same ones crying for KGB's head on a platter...wanting the guy cut yesterday because of his salary...then you are ready to fork over $6M+ to a guy who has not proven whatsoever that he is a consistent starter?

If someone is willing to fork over a $10M signing bonus for Williams in free agency, you go girl. Harrell was selected precisely because of this impending departure...and I expect Harrell will become the better player down the road.

[KYPack]

Damn.

Some of you are the same ones crying for KGB's head on a platter...wanting the guy cut yesterday because of his salary...then you are ready to fork over $6M+ to a guy who has not proven whatsoever that he is a consistent starter?

If someone is willing to fork over a $10M signing bonus for Williams in free agency, you go girl. Harrell was selected precisely because of this impending departure...and I expect Harrell will become the better player down the road.

Leap, the market has gone so crazy, I think you about hit Corey's signing bonus. 8-10 Mil SB. The team will want at least a 5 yr deal. I don't think a 40 - 50 mil package is that outrageous. We would have some slight leverage if we tagged him, but there is very little chance in that.

Williams will just be the first of some pretty good players to get roster squeezed and leave. That's the hidden downside of the ability to discover good talent. You can have too much of it.

[cpk1994]

IF Williams makes it to UFA, I'm predicting his contract to be in the 6 year, 45 million dollar range with about 15 up front.

We're the only team that has the one year, 6.25 option and you have to remember this is the best year of the rest of his career as far as him being in his physical prime.

We'll see, Vince. I see the arguement against him but I think there is more value to the #4 DT than the third starting LB or starting FB. I just think it's a very important position and we have the option between impact and a weakness and it only costs a one year commitment of 6.25 to have impact. You also have to remember that having him trickles down to everyone else. By resting Pickett, Jolly and Harrell they'll all be better when they're in. By having Williams, you can sit down the other guys if they have a moderate knee or ankle rather than forcing them through it. Over the course of the year, that depth would pay off even if it costs 6.25.
You are making a mighty big assumption that CW will play one year for 6.25 mil. Even if CW gets tagged, he is under no obligation to accept the 1 year deal. If he isn't going to take it now, why whould he then?

[twoseven]

IF Williams makes it to UFA, I'm predicting his contract to be in the 6 year, 45 million dollar range with about 15 up front.

We're the only team that has the one year, 6.25 option and you have to remember this is the best year of the rest of his career as far as him being in his physical prime.

We'll see, Vince. I see the arguement against him but I think there is more value to the #4 DT than the third starting LB or starting FB. I just think it's a very important position and we have the option between impact and a weakness and it only costs a one year commitment of 6.25 to have impact. You also have to remember that having him trickles down to everyone else. By resting Pickett, Jolly and Harrell they'll all be better when they're in. By having Williams, you can sit down the other guys if they have a moderate knee or ankle rather than forcing them through it. Over the course of the year, that depth would pay off even if it costs 6.25.
You are making a mighty big assumption that CW will play one year for 6.25 mil. Even if CW gets tagged, he is under no obligation to accept the 1 year deal. If he isn't going to take it now, why whould he then?
CW cannot afford to sit out the season. CW's value drops drastically if he spends the year at his house instead of on the field, big guys tend to have problems staying healthy at home. Meanwhile he exhibits character issues to potential suitors for the following season by not reporting. Briggs tried to play this angle and crumbled when the season came along, and he had burned bridges pretty good before he slinked back for the 7 mil one year rental. CW would be getting a huge pay raise to take that 6 million even for just the year. No way he sits, too much to lose, nothing at all to gain.

[The Leaper]

CW cannot afford to sit out the season.

I agree. Pretty much no NFL player is doing himself a favor by sitting out. Players have a finite amount of time to accumulate earnings before injury/age renders them useless to an NFL team.

The tag would not make Williams happy, but he would certainly play if he were slapped with it.

[twoseven]

CW made $875,920 last season. He's going to turn down 6+ mil?

[HarveyWallbangers]

Antwan Odom is a very good DE; here is a blurp. He'll get huge bucks though

2. Antwan Odom, DE, Tennessee Titans: In a league starved for pass rushers, here's a 26-year old coming off an eight-sack season. The Titans will be hard-pressed to keep him considering they will have to franchise Haynesworth.

Is this the same publication that had Corey Williams #4? Personally, I think Odom is decent, but not this good. He has sacks--just like Williams. However, he's not a real difference maker. He played opposite Kyle Vanden Bosch. That helps--just like it helped KGB (and his 9.5 sacks) playing across from Aaron Kampman. Haynesworth--when his head is on right--can be a real difference maker, but he did get tagged.

[b bulldog]

Why not tag him and than try to trade him for as much as we could get for him? I could see TT doing this and than if we get nothing of value for him, we have another good player on the DL for our rotation but I'd really like to see what he could bring trade wise.

[Farley Face]

Bedard just had an insightful comment on this subject on his JSO blog. He applied a statistical formula that concluded CW would be a relative good deal at the franchise salary.

Unlike some of the Cletidus Hunt comparisons, you are only making a one year commitment, and we aren't in a corner where we have to commit our last cap dollars to execute the tag (ala sign Hunt or Holiday, we couldn't afford both).

I vote for tagging him, testing the trade waters, and worst case he plays next year for a shot at the big bucks. Win win in my opinion. Letting him go for nothing seems illogical.

[b bulldog]

I am now solidly in this camp also.

[vince]

bulldog, you traitor!!!

C'mon man, you remember the last 8 games don't ya?!?! :lol:

[b bulldog]

Yes but evn if TT could get a 3rd or 4th rounder for 99, it would be better than letting him walk. Bedard did state that he thinks 99 is overrated for whatever it is worth.

[PaCkFan_n_MD]

Yes but evn if TT could get a 3rd or 4th rounder for 99, it would be better than letting him walk. Bedard did state that he thinks 99 is overrated for whatever it is worth.

But wouldn't you probably get a 3rd or 4th in composition the following year anyways? Does it matter if we get that pick this year or next?

[MJZiggy]

Yes but evn if TT could get a 3rd or 4th rounder for 99, it would be better than letting him walk. Bedard did state that he thinks 99 is overrated for whatever it is worth.

But wouldn't you probably get a 3rd or 4th in composition the following year anyways? Does it matter if we get that pick this year or next?

Actually that depends on how he performs (is it compared to the player who replaced him or just how he performs?)

[vince]

It's a combination of the contract he signs and performance. I'm not certain how it's computed, and I think it's a bit arbitrary as decided by some NFL committee...

[Bretsky]

I am now solidly in this camp also.


Welcome to the Light

Leave the detractors behind :lol: :lol: (ode to Tex)

[Bretsky]

Yes but evn if TT could get a 3rd or 4th rounder for 99, it would be better than letting him walk. Bedard did state that he thinks 99 is overrated for whatever it is worth.

But wouldn't you probably get a 3rd or 4th in composition the following year anyways? Does it matter if we get that pick this year or next?


Teams always feel screwed when their expectations of what they think they will get are compared with what they actually do get

[Farley Face]

Yes but evn if TT could get a 3rd or 4th rounder for 99, it would be better than letting him walk. Bedard did state that he thinks 99 is overrated for whatever it is worth.

But wouldn't you probably get a 3rd or 4th in composition the following year anyways? Does it matter if we get that pick this year or next?


Teams always feel screwed when their expectations of what they think they will get are compared with what they actually do get

I still haven't figured out how compensatory picks are valued. Is it based on size of contract, or actual production of the player? Ahman Green is a perfect example. Based on the contract he signed, I would expect a high midround pick. Based on production, we should anticipate far less.

Considering how draft picks are so coveted I'm surprised more science isn't applied, or at least made public, to this process.

[Bretsky]

Yes but evn if TT could get a 3rd or 4th rounder for 99, it would be better than letting him walk. Bedard did state that he thinks 99 is overrated for whatever it is worth.

But wouldn't you probably get a 3rd or 4th in composition the following year anyways? Does it matter if we get that pick this year or next?


Teams always feel screwed when their expectations of what they think they will get are compared with what they actually do get

I still haven't figured out how compensatory picks are valued. Is it based on size of contract, or actual production of the player? Ahman Green is a perfect example. Based on the contract he signed, I would expect a high midround pick. Based on production, we should anticipate far less.

Considering how draft picks are so coveted I'm surprised more science isn't applied, or at least made public, to this process.

Believe it's a combo of contract size, production, and that is measure up against what you gained in free agency if any

Last yr Ahman Green left and we got Frank Walker

Would not surprise me if it gives us a 6th

[Scott Campbell]

I still haven't figured out how compensatory picks are valued. Is it based on size of contract, or actual production of the player? Ahman Green is a perfect example. Based on the contract he signed, I would expect a high midround pick. Based on production, we should anticipate far less.


If it were fair, we'd owe the Texans a 3rd rounder. And we might owe the Giants a 2nd rounder.

:lol: