A Trade down scenario

[No Mo Moss]

Someone on the JSO site had listed tradedown scenarios according to the value chart that you always hear about. There is really only one that makes sense and that is to trade two spots down to #8 while picking up a third rounder. And while that could turn into a second on draft day it is an interesting idea. If the Raiders move up it would be for Young or Cutler. The Niners would then take Hawk or Davis, but word is they really like Davis, which would make sense with their young QB.

That would still leave us with Hawk. An interesting idea however would be this....

MN is rumored to be very much in favor of using their picks to get into the top ten for a QB. While they don't have the ammunition to get to #5, they would to get to #8. Apparently Childress really likes both Young and Cutler and even at #8 you would have to assume that one of those guys would still be there. That would cost them their 1st #17, their 2nd, and a 3rd.

If things go poorly with Walker we may get a 2nd for him. If that hapens and TT is able to really generate picks from that #5 spot the way I explained it...this is what we would have on draft day.

1-1st rounder #17, 3-2nd rounders, 3 3rd rounders....that would be 7 picks in the first 90 selections of the draft. TT would be a freaking genius, plus he could draft Marooney just to really chap some MN asses.

What do you think? Certainly far more possible than many other scenarios on here I think.

[Harlan Huckleby]

If things go poorly with Walker we may get a 2nd for him.

I'm a little confused by this. You mean if things go poorly between now and the draft? not much doubt there.

i don't think Walker has much value right now because of the injury. Teams will want to work him out before givign up a #2.

[HarveyWallbangers]

Have fun figuring out these scenarios, but I wouldn't get my hopes up about any blockbuster. If we do trade, I'd see us trading down a couple of spots and picking up an extra 2nd round pick. I can't see us trading down to the second half of the first round.

[MJZiggy]

I thought teams usually didn't trade picks with divisional rivals.

[No Mo Moss]

If TT can get that many picks in two trade downs I bet he does it.

[MJZiggy]

But then he loses his shot at the best potential at the top of the draft.

[No Mo Moss]

Right but this is supposed to be one of the deepest drafts in history and it would increase our chances of hitting on talent 3-fold.

[HarveyWallbangers]

I don't think the draft is that deep in the middle and bottom. It's just really good at the top. There are a lot of positions that aren't deep. LB is great at the top, but after the middle rounds it falls off. QB is three deep. RB is deep. WR is weak. TE is strong in the first few rounds, but then falls off. OG is pretty deep. DE and DT aren't very deep. Safety is pretty deep. Corner is not deep. K/P is weak. I think the depth of this draft was greatly exaggerated. The strength of this draft is that the top is really strong, and there are a few positions that are 3-4 rounds deep (LB, RB).

[No Mo Moss]

Harv, I agree.


I just don't remember there being this much high quality players that will reach into round 4-5 in very many previous drafts. The depth and LB, RB and TE is very impresssive. I also think there is a lot of quality interior O-Line. More and more I think we should trade down once or twice and have a field day in rd 2 and 3 while still getting a good player in the first.

[HarveyWallbangers]

I think we need to get a superstar at the top though, so I don't want to trade down--unless it's just a couple of spots and we still have a chance at Hawk or Davis. I'm not that high on Huff. Safety really is the least important position on defense, and I think we are fine there with Collins and Manuel.

[jack's smirking revenge]

I don't agree with doing a blockbuster deal within the division and handing the Vikes Cutler or Young. Let someone else build their team. We'd never hear the end of it if we traded down with them and delivered them one of the top QBs in the draft. I agree with moving if the price is right; just not in our division.

tyler

[No Mo Moss]

Harv, there will most definately be superstars in the second round. Look at some of them from last year.

Jack, It could work both ways though. Imagine if the Vikings take Cutler who essentially ends up being Losman while we take Demeco Ryans, Bobby Carpenter, Nick Mangold, Brian Calhoun, and Brian Williams.

[KYPack]

I don't think the draft is that deep in the middle and bottom. It's just really good at the top. There are a lot of positions that aren't deep. LB is great at the top, but after the middle rounds it falls off. QB is three deep. RB is deep. WR is weak. TE is strong in the first few rounds, but then falls off.

I was hoping you'd post something I disagree with, I've been nodding at most of your posts for the last couple months.

This is THE deepest TE draft, maybe in NFL history. It's solid at the top, great in the middle and there are some late round guys that have great potetial. There's all kinds of big kids with great hands running fast 40's at the TE position this year.

The overall crop is very rich and deep, also. The wierd part is the top guys. We've all beat the Mario Williams thing to death. One of the all-time top tier propects that could be a bust. I don't think Hawk will bust, but he could. Two of the top 3 QB guys could also be bust, hell maybe all 3.

I'd like to see us trade down, too. It's just hard to turn your back on yop 5 talent, and I don't think TT will do it.

[billy_oliver880]

I know I will get flamed for this but I think Bush could be a real bust. How many times have we heard before that a prospect is a no-brainer and they don't pan out?

[K-town]

"no-brainer"
You mean like Tony Mandarich (#2), Brent Fullwood (#4) and Terrell Buckley (#5)? Everyone makes mistakes, and the "experts" can be fooled just like the rest of us.
I think Bush is the real deal, though in playing for the Texans it may be a while before he can shine. Maybe he's like Marshall Faulk and he doesn't truly blossom until he escapes from a bad tesm (the horrible mid-90s Colts situation somewhat like the disarray of the Texans).
I'd rather we keep our pick at five; as much as I am uncomfortable with this, I agree with Christl that the chances of getting a true impact player go down steeply as you go further back in round one.

[billy_oliver880]

"no-brainer"
You mean like Tony Mandarich (#2), Brent Fullwood (#4) and Terrell Buckley (#5)? Everyone makes mistakes, and the "experts" can be fooled just like the rest of us.
I think Bush is the real deal, though in playing for the Texans it may be a while before he can shine. Maybe he's like Marshall Faulk and he doesn't truly blossom until he escapes from a bad tesm (the horrible mid-90s Colts situation somewhat like the disarray of the Texans).
I'd rather we keep our pick at five; as much as I am uncomfortable with this, I agree with Christl that the chances of getting a true impact player go down steeply as you go further back in round one.

Exactly what I mean. He is a special player but he could be fragile....was he even a full time back for USC?

[MJZiggy]

I thought he shared time with LenDale.

[KYPack]

I thought he shared time with LenDale.

Yer absolutely right, Zig.

Bush was a spot player at SC.

Pete Carroll has so much talent in that program, he can use all his players perfectly.

With Bush, he put him in situations where he could be in match-ups. When you try to single up Bush, you lose. In Houston, they want Bush to be A DRAWING CARD.

This could get this fine prospect injured early in his pro career and labeled another high pick bust like the others discussed in this thread.

[billy_oliver880]

I thought he shared time with LenDale.

Yer absolutely right, Zig.

Bush was a spot player at SC.

Pete Carroll has so much talent in that program, he can use all his players perfectly.

With Bush, he put him in situations where he could be in match-ups. When you try to single up Bush, you lose. In Houston, they want Bush to be A DRAWING CARD.

This could get this fine prospect injured early in his pro career and labeled another high pick bust like the others discussed in this thread.

You just explained the theory floating around in my head. :cool: