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RashanGary
02-23-2008, 09:49 AM
ESPN Insider
Todd McShay

Perhaps the biggest storyline of the day was the highly anticipated coin flip that decided whether the Atlanta Falcons, Oakland Raiders or Kansas City Chiefs -- who all finished at 4-12 and had identical strength-of-schedule ratings -- would get the No. 3 overall pick in this year's draft. The Falcons came out on top and only time will tell how much the benefit from winning the toss, but as things stand right now they could benefit significantly.

If Boston College QB Matt Ryan is not Miami's pick at No. 1 overall then it seems likely he will end up in Atlanta. If Ryan is the top pick -- and that is the scenario that plays out in my updated top 10 -- then the Falcons and Raiders could both end up selecting defensive tackles. The Raiders are a wild card at No. 4 because owner Al Davis calls the shots and has proven erratic in his draft strategies, and it is very possible that he would take a bad deal and trade out of the top five simply to save money. Either way, the Falcons should not be that concerned about a team trading up to take the prospect Atlanta covets.

Here is how I see the top 10 picks playing out right now:


1. Miami (1-15) -- Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College
2. St. Louis (3-12) -- Chris Long, DE, Virginia
3. Atlanta (4-12) -- Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU
4. Oakland (4-12) -- Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC
5. Kansas City (4-12) -- Jake Long, OT, Michigan
6. NY Jets (4-12) -- Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas
7. New England (16-0) (via 5-11 San Francisco) -- Vernon Gholston, DE/OLB, Ohio State
8. Baltimore (4-12) -- Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy
9. Cincinnati (7-9) -- Phillip Merling, DE, Clemson
10. New Orleans (7-9) -- Keith Rivers, OLB, USC



Friday's measurements
• It is no secret that California WR DeSean Jackson is undersized, but few expected him to weigh in as low as 169 pounds. The lack of weight raises concerns about Jackson's ability to take the pounding NFL receivers absorb over the course of a 16-game season. He had problems staying healthy in college, remember, and his lack of bulk also raises questions about how well he'll be able to handle press coverage on the outside.

• Jackson's measurements certainly weren't the only disappointing ones of the day. In fact, eight of the 33 running backs here weigh less than 200 pounds. They are: Rutgers' Ray Rice (5-foot-8, 199 pounds); Houston's Anthony Alridge (5-9, 170); Cal's Justin Forsett (5-8, 194); East Carolina's a href="http://insider.espn.go.com/nfldraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&id=11492">Chris Johnson (5-11, 197); Kentucky's Rafael Little (5-8¾, 194) Oklahoma's Allen Patrick (6-0¾, 198); Oklahoma State's Dantrell Savage (5-8¼, 187); and West Virginia's Steve Slaton (5-9⅛, 197).

• For teams like Washington and Buffalo that are looking to add a big receiver, Friday's weigh-in was a reminder of how much supply will be available to match their demand. In fact, ten of the 53 receivers in Indy are taller than 6-foot-3. They are: Texas' Limas Sweed (6-3⅞, 215); Oklahoma's Malcolm Kelly (6-3¾, 224); Arkansas' Marcus Monk (6-4¼, 222); Stanford's Evan Moore (6-6, 233); Indiana's James Hardy (6-5⅜, 217) Virginia Tech's Justin Harper (6-3½, 213) Kansas' Marcus Henry (6-3⅝, 207); Iowa State's Todd Blythe (6-4⅛, 214); Nebraska's Maurice Purify (6-3⅛, 224); and Louisville's Mario Urrutia (6-5⅜, 232).

• After weighing in at just 185 pounds less than a month ago at the Senior Bowl, Hawaii QB Colt Brennan turned some heads when he weighed in at 207 pounds on Friday morning. Putting on 22 pounds in four weeks brings a mix of concern and curiosity from scouts. The first concern is whether the new weight will affect Brennan's overall mobility. Scouts will keep a close eye on Brennan's test times and footwork during individual drills. On a more positive note, added lower-body strength and size can affect a quarterbacks velocity and scouts will be interested to see whether Brennan has more zip on his passes this week after he struggled to make some throws at the Senior Bowl.

• Delaware QB Joe Flacco's draft stock has soared since the end of the season and on Friday he showed off prototypical size for an NFL pocket passer, checking in at 6-6⅜, 236. On the flipside, Louisville's Brian Brohm (6-2⅞), Michigan's Chad Henne (6-2⅞) and USC's John David Booty (6-2⅜) all came in slightly under the 6-foot-3 mark.


• Jake Long continued his conquest of Indianapolis by bench pressing 225 pounds an impressive 37 times. Long showed excellent endurance and explosiveness throughout the exercise, reinforcing the belief that he has the punch to jar defenders as a drive blocker and will still be able to get his hands on edge rushers late in the game.


• McFadden is the top running back on our board and it will take something unforeseen for that to change. However, some experts are saying that Rashard Mendenhall of Illinois is as good as -- if not better than -- McFadden, and that Oregon's Jonathan Stewart is in the mix as well.

Mendenhall weighed in at 225 pounds and Stewart at 235, while McFadden was 211. In addition, McFadden fielded several questions concerning his character during his press conference, many stemming from from an incident outside a nightclub. Perhaps the stiff competition he's facing and the damage to his image factored into McFadden's decision to run the 40 and participate in some agility drills this week.


• Coastal Carolina WR Jerome Simpson (6-1¾, 199) didn’t measure as tall as some thought he would, but his arm length measured 34 ½ inches and his hand span is 11 inches. While the arm length is impressive on its own, the size of his hands is eye-opening considering they are as big as Long's. With arms and hands that size Simpson is a player who can go up and snatch the ball out of the air even without prototypical height.

RashanGary
02-23-2008, 09:52 AM
5 DL in the top 10 :shock:


I don't know what to think about that. I really want DE's, but at the same time, if everyone is overrating them, I'd be just as satisfied with an OT, CB or stud at any other position over a decent DE.

RashanGary
02-23-2008, 09:57 AM
I was really starting to look at Phillip Merling. Looks like he's shooting up though.


I don't think we're going to have a DE when it's our turn to pick. They are just too overrated right now. I'd rahter have a stud LB, RB or WR than a solid DE.

Bretsky
02-23-2008, 09:58 AM
5 DL in the top 10 :shock:


I don't know what to think about that. I really want DE's, but at the same time, if everyone is overrating them, I'd be just as satisfied with an OT, CB or stud at any other position over a decent DE.


Being the win now guy :lol: I'd be disappointed in we took an OT in round 1

I think Tauscher and Clifton have a couple good years and hopefully College can step into one of those spots

Remember if we had the chance to draft a stud DE Jenkins could always go back inside as well. I still think he was banged up all last year and I expect him to bounce back next year

RashanGary
02-23-2008, 10:11 AM
Bretsky, I don't know how easy a draft pick will start on this team.


FB? I doubt it
RB? I doubt it
QB? No
WR? No
TE? Rookie? I doubt it
OT? I doubt it
OC? Rookie? I doubt it
OG? Rookie? Very difficult to start as a rookie even if our guys aren't studs

LB? Possible, but Poppinga is a pretty good two down LB. I can't imagine a rookie holding the point and blowing up blocks like Poppinga. We could get a faster, better cover LB, but we have two of those already. Poppinga is acctually a good compliment to the guys we have IMO. Any rookie would get flushed out and run on. Poppinga blows blocks up, not the other way around and because of Hawk and Barnett we dont' need him to be a 3 down guy.
S? Maybe, but a rookie starting is tough.
CB? Nickle very possible
DE? Rookie? Doubt it
DT? Rookie? Doubt it
P? Maybe
K? Maybe

It's going to be hard for a rookie to be a right now guy anyway. We'll be far better off with the best guy available IMO. The roster is constantly turning over with age, injury and financial reasons.

Bretsky
02-23-2008, 10:33 AM
Bretsky, I don't know how easy a draft pick will start on this team.


FB? I doubt it
RB? I doubt it
QB? No
WR? No
TE? Rookie? I doubt it
OT? I doubt it
OC? Rookie? I doubt it
OG? Rookie? Very difficult to start as a rookie even if our guys aren't studs

LB? Possible, but Poppinga is a pretty good two down LB. I can't imagine a rookie holding the point and blowing up blocks like Poppinga. We could get a faster, better cover LB, but we have two of those already. Poppinga is acctually a good compliment to the guys we have IMO. Any rookie would get flushed out and run on. Poppinga blows blocks up, not the other way around and because of Hawk and Barnett we dont' need him to be a 3 down guy.
S? Maybe, but a rookie starting is tough.
CB? Nickle very possible
DE? Rookie? Doubt it
DT? Rookie? Doubt it
P? Maybe
K? Maybe

It's going to be hard for a rookie to be a right now guy anyway. We'll be far better off with the best guy available IMO. The roster is constantly turning over with age, injury and financial reasons.


I'd agree it will be a challenge to find a starter in round one

I could see a starter at the following positions blossoming from a draft pick
OG, S, FB, LB, P

But OT is the one spot where a guy probably sits dormant on the bench so I'm hoping they don't go with that spot too early

As for the other positions, even if a guy does not start I could see them contributing to our success even with no injuries

RashanGary
02-23-2008, 10:47 AM
1 RB
2 DE
3 DT
4,5 RB CB
6,7 WR QB
8 OT
9,10,11 RB DE QB
12,13 S CB
14 OG
15-20 WR TE LB LB S


This is your draft board. Italics are gone. Bold are available.




You're picking 16th. Nobody's willing to trade up. Who do you pick? You can have the guy you think is the 8th best player in the draft with the 16th pick or you can pick one of the 15th-20th best at either WR, TE or LB.

Bretsky
02-23-2008, 10:56 AM
Agree; for what it's worth I'd have no problem if they take a WR in round one.
OT is the only spot I'd like to see them wait on til round 4 or after

RashanGary
02-23-2008, 11:13 AM
I'd take the OT because me (being the GM) and my scouts are really high on him. Maybe he's Ryan Clady and we think this guy is going to be a hellofa OT for many years.

Clifton turns 32 this TC. He's missed TC and practice on and off for the last two or three years. Like Rivera he's been reliable as a labrador on game day, but there's no guarantee he's going to be around forever. We ride him out ages 32 and 33. Then there's nothing wrong with cutting an expensive vet at age 34 and replacing him with a strong up and comer.

Do we really want to be caught with our pants down when the OT's expire?


Sure, more than likely we don't get much help this year, but by taking the best player we secure an important position for another decade. Either that or we take Bubba Franks. We get a decent player for 10 years, but we always regret not taking the stud OT.

RashanGary
02-23-2008, 11:45 AM
I just listened to Thompson's press conference.

Here is a DIRECT QUOTE (without the uh's ah's) from Thompson. This is the first time I've heard him say it this directly. . .

Do you think you can take a player of need over the best player?

"No, I don't think you can do that. This is an exaggerated situation, but if you have a guy who you think will be a probowl player eventually as opposed to a guy that is just going to get you by but it's a position where you're really hurting, I think it's a bad decision for the long term and it's a bad decision for the short term becuase you never know what injury situation might occur. We think it's best to stay true to what we're thinking"


I love Ted Thompson :)

RashanGary
02-23-2008, 11:50 AM
On the OG's

We didn't have the flexibility to do much. I didn't do a good job replacing them. We felt the offensive line was very deep in 2006. We got three players that we feel pretty good about. We have Juice Coston from the 05 draft. We have good coaches and a good off season program. It's getting better, but it didn't start out as well as I had hoped"

This draft. . .

"I do think this is a good draft for the offensive line. There are good players not only early, but later on"

RashanGary
02-23-2008, 11:59 AM
I can't go back and piece together everything Ted Thompson has said over the last 3 years, but these comments are very consistant with what he's said and he also seems more confident, more cocky and IMO more stupid for giving up what he does so directly but anyway, here is what I think we can take from what Thompson just said.


1. He's going to take the best player. He just said so. He said it very directly and gave an analogy as to why he'll do it. Connecting things he's said in the past, there is a line he draws where he won't take 7 quarterbacks or 3 kickers, but for the most part he's consistant in saying he'll stay true to his board. Honestly, if a top DT drops, I think Thompson will take him.

2. He said the Williams decision was fairly straight forward. He's a good player and the CBA is set up in a way where they can gain more control of the situation by using the tag. They used it. Then he was asked about the quality of his DT's and this is indirect but Thompson gave a little hint as to what he's thinking. He said they like their group as a whole more than if they broke it apart and anylized it seperately. He said he liked how they rotated in and out. . . . I think Thompson was saying that Williams is more of a pass rusher. They like him. They wanted to keep him in the rotation, but they don't value him as a top all around DT because he's not complete.

I don't think the tag indicates that they do think he's a top DT. The tags are low this year. It was an oppertunity they had to keep a good player below what they think the market was going to pay. They took it.


3. This is a deep year for offensive lineman. He said it's strong in the top and later on.

He also said Dlineman and Olineman were hard to find and important pieces. Seems like he might have learned his lesson about undervaluing OG's.

Harlan Huckleby
02-23-2008, 12:09 PM
Is Matt Ryan that great? I don't get it. He's a pro-style pocket passer with a good arm. So was Rich Campbell.

HarveyWallbangers
02-23-2008, 12:14 PM
We need to get an OT. He could help this year (injuries?), but more for down the line. Remember they year we took Clifton in round 2. A lot of people were surprised. He ended up starting his rookie year and ever since.

The need for an OT is less if we decide Colledge is an OT (which I don't think they are ready to do yet), and we find an OG to replace him.

Bretsky
02-23-2008, 12:20 PM
Is Matt Ryan that great? I don't get it. He's a pro-style pocket passer with a good arm. So was Rich Campbell.


Rich Campbell didn't have a good arm; in fact Bob Schnelker, their current OC, questioned whether RC's arm was strong enough to be a successful NFL QB right off the bat.

Lurker64
02-23-2008, 12:23 PM
We're going to take the BPA unless he's a QB, and even then I wouldn't be surprised. This is Ted we're talking about, remember?

b bulldog
02-23-2008, 01:12 PM
I think OG is where they need to go and put DC in his best position which is tackle.

Fritz
02-23-2008, 01:22 PM
"Friday's measurements"

You missed one, JH:

"Mike Hart, University of Michigan running back, surprised the scouts with his measurements. Most had him at 6 inches, but Hart measured a solid 8 inches."

Just don't miss a trick, these scouts. I think Hart's value just went...up.

Fritz
02-23-2008, 01:25 PM
Look, it seems to me that the kind of offensive linemen required for the zone system are quicker and not as big as the traditional type. That means TT can find just what he needs in later rounds - he's not in the absolute dire spot he was when he took Colledge and Spitz in rounds two and three back in '06. I see TT doing the BPA, whether offensive line, d-line, QB, even wide receiver. Then he'll get his need stuff later. As much as I like the BPA idea, it's not absoulte. Like, what if you drafted a QB in round one - he's the BPA - and then in your next two rounds, the guy in front of you is the BPA - and he's a QB, too. Do you draft three rookie QB's? Prolly not.

RashanGary
02-23-2008, 02:38 PM
Look, it seems to me that the kind of offensive linemen required for the zone system are quicker and not as big as the traditional type. That means TT can find just what he needs in later rounds - he's not in the absolute dire spot he was when he took Colledge and Spitz in rounds two and three back in '06. I see TT doing the BPA, whether offensive line, d-line, QB, even wide receiver. Then he'll get his need stuff later. As much as I like the BPA idea, it's not absoulte. Like, what if you drafted a QB in round one - he's the BPA - and then in your next two rounds, the guy in front of you is the BPA - and he's a QB, too. Do you draft three rookie QB's? Prolly not.

Right and Thompson has said that in the past. There are times where you don't keep picking the same position, but what he's saying is that he's not going to take a guy he shouldnt' take just because he needs them. Unless something unusual comes up Thompson says he will stick with the best guy.

Lurker64
02-23-2008, 03:06 PM
Apparently Jake Long ran a glacial 5.17 today after being rumored to run a 4.8. That should drop him out of contention for 1st overall unless he rebounds on his Pro Day, I wonder how far he'll go. The conventional wisdom is that the Chiefs will take him if he's there, but I'm not sure.

red
02-23-2008, 03:29 PM
Apparently Jake Long ran a glacial 5.17 today after being rumored to run a 4.8. That should drop him out of contention for 1st overall unless he rebounds on his Pro Day, I wonder how far he'll go. The conventional wisdom is that the Chiefs will take him if he's there, but I'm not sure.

see this is where the combine gets stupid

he's a OT, who cares how fast he can run? can he shut down the backside pass rusher? thats all that should matter. o-linemen and DT's shouldn't even run the 40

at no point will that OT ever have to sprint more then 10 yards or so in his career.

there was one guy that ran a 5.5 something, and they were saying he's done. he was like a OG or something. how does that matter? honestly

]{ilr]3
02-23-2008, 04:08 PM
Apparently Jake Long ran a glacial 5.17 today after being rumored to run a 4.8. That should drop him out of contention for 1st overall unless he rebounds on his Pro Day, I wonder how far he'll go. The conventional wisdom is that the Chiefs will take him if he's there, but I'm not sure.

He was probably still tired after putting up the wieghts 37 frikin times! :shock:

Pretty impressive for a guy that height and with a seriously long reach 8-)

KYPack
02-23-2008, 04:57 PM
Apparently Jake Long ran a glacial 5.17 today after being rumored to run a 4.8. That should drop him out of contention for 1st overall unless he rebounds on his Pro Day, I wonder how far he'll go. The conventional wisdom is that the Chiefs will take him if he's there, but I'm not sure.

see this is where the combine gets stupid

he's a OT, who cares how fast he can run? can he shut down the backside pass rusher? thats all that should matter. o-linemen and DT's shouldn't even run the 40

at no point will that OT ever have to sprint more then 10 yards or so in his career.

there was one guy that ran a 5.5 something, and they were saying he's done. he was like a OG or something. how does that matter? honestly

You got it Red.

An OT? How good is his kick step?

If your tackles are running 40 yards, something is wrong with your O.

Why even run some of these tests for some of the positions?

You can see why guys skip this thing.

KYPack
02-23-2008, 05:20 PM
Apparently Jake Long ran a glacial 5.17 today after being rumored to run a 4.8. That should drop him out of contention for 1st overall unless he rebounds on his Pro Day, I wonder how far he'll go. The conventional wisdom is that the Chiefs will take him if he's there, but I'm not sure.

Same thing happened to this kid.

Pitt offensive tackle Jeff Otah ran a poor time in the 40-yard dash.

One scout had Otah's time clocked at 5.55 seconds.

Otah is regarded as having first-round potential. But running too slow at the Combine could hurt him.

Hey, let's draft him in the 3rd round. Most starting NFL tackles couldn't run a 50 under 6 seconds.

RashanGary
02-23-2008, 05:52 PM
+1 on the ridiculous notion that OT's need to run fast 40's.


Jeffrey Otah is intriguing acctually. Maybe one of these kickass OT's with slow 40 times can fall in our lap.

twoseven
02-23-2008, 05:58 PM
see this is where the combine gets stupid


You say that like the 40 times and how they are intepreted are the only example of stupidity.

To me combine and stupidity have almost become synonymous in regards to how much they influence the rise and fall of the players in the draft.

MJZiggy
02-23-2008, 10:29 PM
Apparently Jake Long ran a glacial 5.17 today after being rumored to run a 4.8. That should drop him out of contention for 1st overall unless he rebounds on his Pro Day, I wonder how far he'll go. The conventional wisdom is that the Chiefs will take him if he's there, but I'm not sure.

see this is where the combine gets stupid

he's a OT, who cares how fast he can run? can he shut down the backside pass rusher? thats all that should matter. o-linemen and DT's shouldn't even run the 40

at no point will that OT ever have to sprint more then 10 yards or so in his career.

there was one guy that ran a 5.5 something, and they were saying he's done. he was like a OG or something. how does that matter? honestly

You got it Red.

An OT? How good is his kick step?

If your tackles are running 40 yards, something is wrong with your O.

Why even run some of these tests for some of the positions?

You can see why guys skip this thing.

On the flipside of that one, I've seen Kampman run himself all over the field to chase down the play and make a tackle...don't know how fast he goes, but ya gotta love his motor.

the_idle_threat
02-24-2008, 12:00 AM
Apparently Jake Long ran a glacial 5.17 today after being rumored to run a 4.8. That should drop him out of contention for 1st overall unless he rebounds on his Pro Day, I wonder how far he'll go. The conventional wisdom is that the Chiefs will take him if he's there, but I'm not sure.

see this is where the combine gets stupid

he's a OT, who cares how fast he can run? can he shut down the backside pass rusher? thats all that should matter. o-linemen and DT's shouldn't even run the 40

at no point will that OT ever have to sprint more then 10 yards or so in his career.

there was one guy that ran a 5.5 something, and they were saying he's done. he was like a OG or something. how does that matter? honestly

You got it Red.

An OT? How good is his kick step?

If your tackles are running 40 yards, something is wrong with your O.

Why even run some of these tests for some of the positions?

You can see why guys skip this thing.

Although I agree with both of you, red and KY, you gotta love the adjective "glacial." :lol: