Harrell Must be a Pro Bowler

[Farley Face]

Lots of backslapping on the forum today about the great deal we got for Williams. I was in the tag him/trade him boat myself, so I'm happy with how that was executed.

But take a look at the bigger picture. The acccepted logic seems to be we don't need Williams because we drafted Harrell last year. I can agree on some level with that. The thing is, if Harrell and Williams end up being similar players in the long run, we have used the 16th pick last year and a likely 5th or so next year (compensatory pick had we let Williams go in UFA) for a 56th pick this year.

A 1 and a 5 for a 2nd and the gamble Harrell will be a special player. It will be interesting to look back on this in a couple of years and weigh the overall outcome.

[The Leaper]

Harrell is not going to be in the same category as Williams...he's not a pass rusher.

Harrell compares more favorably to Pickett IMO...and could become a dominant run-stuffer in 2-3 more years.

[HarveyWallbangers]

A 1 and a 5 for a 2nd and the gamble Harrell will be a special player. It will be interesting to look back on this in a couple of years and weigh the overall outcome.

The two deals are separate entities.

The first is the gamble that Harrell will turn into a solid player (where they got him, you can expect a "special" player).

This trade is Williams and a 5th in the following year (which corresponds to a 6th round pick this year when looking at trade value) for a 2nd and the hope that Harrell, Muir, or a drafted player are able to replace him.

[The Leaper]

The thing is, if Harrell and Williams end up being similar players in the long run, we have used the 16th pick last year and a likely 5th or so next year (compensatory pick had we let Williams go in UFA) for a 56th pick this year.

Comparing the two players is worthless IMO. There is no evidence that they are viewed as similar components. We did not let go of Williams because of Harrell. We let go of Williams because we felt he was not worth the salary he would command after the season.

We drafted Williams in the 6th round, got several years of very good service out of him, and traded him for a 2nd round pick.

Another way to look at value is in terms of one more year of having Williams (had we not traded him and lost him after this season) versus the worth of what we get from the 56th pick in the foreseeable future.

That's how I look at it...huge win for the Packers either way in all likelihood. The guy(s) we get in return for the 56th pick would have to be complete failures for this trade to not be positive for the Packers.

[Patler]

To pick up any pick in the second round for a draft supposedly very deep in the positions the Packers have the most need at, in return for a player at a position the Packers are supposedly deep at, is a good deal no matter how you look at it today. We can all second guess it next season, but today it looks like a good deal.

[red]

i guess i'm the only one that thinks jolly is a pretty good player

i wouldn't doubt TT takes another DT in the later rounds of the draft too trying to find another diamond

i really don't think we took a step back by trading him, and we good a good pick to help improve us in the process

[The Leaper]

i guess i'm the only one that thinks jolly is a pretty good player

I like Jolly a lot.

The problem we face in 2008 is that our best DTs are all run-stuffing behemoths who can't put pressure on a QB. Pickett, Harrell, Jolly...none of those guys can collapse a pocket.

Williams could do that...which was his valued contribution to our DL.

[Patler]

I am a bit concerned about how ready Jolly will be for next season. Some reports have been very reserved about whether his shoulder surgery will be ready to go by training camp. This probably means an off season of minimal weight work for at least that side of his upper body. 2008 could be a bit of a lost season for him.

[PaCkFan_n_MD]

i guess i'm the only one that thinks jolly is a pretty good player

i wouldn't doubt TT takes another DT in the later rounds of the draft too trying to find another diamond

i really don't think we took a step back by trading him, and we good a good pick to help improve us in the process

I think that most people on the forum like Jolly and thats why I most people are ok with letting Williams walk. With Pickett, Harrell, and Jolly, and say a fourth or fifth round pcik, I think we will be more than ok at DT. I think DE is the spot on the line that we could use the most help. If we hit on a good DE, that would allow Jenkins to back up DE and DT and would afford him more snaps at DT which would make up even deeper there.

[Lurker64]

"Being a Pro Bowler" seems an odd metric for measuring DT performance. How many people honestly know the DTs around the league well enough to really say which ones are the best? I mean, for running backs it's easy: The guys with the most touchdowns, yards, and yards per carry are the best ones.

I'd rather Harrell become a solid inside presence and dominate at times than see him make the pro-bowl.

[Cheesehead Craig]

I am a bit concerned about how ready Jolly will be for next season. Some reports have been very reserved about whether his shoulder surgery will be ready to go by training camp. This probably means an off season of minimal weight work for at least that side of his upper body. 2008 could be a bit of a lost season for him.
He could have a very similar season to Justin Harrell last year.

[Patler]

"Being a Pro Bowler" seems an odd metric for measuring DT performance. How many people honestly know the DTs around the league well enough to really say which ones are the best? I mean, for running backs it's easy: The guys with the most touchdowns, yards, and yards per carry are the best ones.

I'd rather Harrell become a solid inside presence and dominate at times than see him make the pro-bowl.

Very true! Pickett is a pretty darn good DT for the Packers, and not a Pro-Bowl player. If Harrell can be as valuable to the Packers as Pickett has been, he will be fine.

[Patler]

I am a bit concerned about how ready Jolly will be for next season. Some reports have been very reserved about whether his shoulder surgery will be ready to go by training camp. This probably means an off season of minimal weight work for at least that side of his upper body. 2008 could be a bit of a lost season for him.
He could have a very similar season to Justin Harrell last year.

Kind of what I was thinking, except Harrell didn't play much the season before. At least Jolly had 4 pre-season games and 10 regular season games this year, so he won't be as far away from the game as Harrell had been. But strength-wise it could be a similar situation.

[RashanGary]

I think Jolly will be OK. Part of Harrell's problem is that he was a 22 year old kid who was asked to go toe to toe with some of the strongest men in the world who also happen to be perfectionists in their technique and leverage.

Jolly is entering his physical prime. He's had a couple years to work on his technique. Harrell was at the bottom of the strength latter and the lurning curve on top of the injury.


I do think Jolly is going to have to work his butt off rehabbing that shoulder but I think he'll be fine. His legs and core should be strong. His upper body will catch up over the course of TC.

[Patler]

I do think Jolly is going to have to work his butt off rehabbing that shoulder but I think he'll be fine. His legs and core should be strong. His upper body will catch up over the course of TC.

My only concern is when he can really start his rehab in earnest. If, as some have reported, he may not be ready to go at the start of camp, it could set him back quite a bit.

[RashanGary]

It's going to set him back, no question, but I don't think it will be a situation where he's as bad as Harrell last year. Jolly is further along in his technique and in all of his strength training. The only similarity is the arm, but Jolly has way more going for him than Harrell had last year IMO.

[Partial]

I think Jolly will be OK. Part of Harrell's problem is that he was a 22 year old kid who was asked to go toe to toe with some of the strongest men in the world who also happen to be perfectionists in their technique and leverage.

Jolly is entering his physical prime. He's had a couple years to work on his technique. Harrell was at the bottom of the strength latter and the lurning curve on top of the injury.


I do think Jolly is going to have to work his butt off rehabbing that shoulder but I think he'll be fine. His legs and core should be strong. His upper body will catch up over the course of TC.

Actually, Harrell was known for his strength. And Jolly has had one more year than him. Not exactly a huge amount of time. You're a fool if you think you can get an effective workout with out an arm. Clearly, you've never spent time doing squats and deads before.

[Guiness]

Kind of like Teabag on Prison Break!!! 8-)

[Merlin]

Williams and Harrell aren't comparable as many have said. My largest concern with losing Williams is the inconsistent play of Cole and Jolly's injury. I wouldn't be shocked if the Packers have someone in mind to bring in for less money.

[the_idle_threat]

I do think Jolly is going to have to work his butt off rehabbing that shoulder but I think he'll be fine. His legs and core should be strong. His upper body will catch up over the course of TC.

You're a fool if you think you can get an effective workout with out an arm. Clearly, you've never spent time doing squats and deads before.

There's more than one way to skin a cat.

http://www.ironmind.com/ironmind/opencms/ironmind/Main/homesweathome4.html

[MJZiggy]

Williams and Harrell aren't comparable as many have said. My largest concern with losing Williams is the inconsistent play of Cole and Jolly's injury. I wouldn't be shocked if the Packers have someone in mind to bring in for less money.

If there were anyone on their level to bring in, we wouldn't have gotten the trade and Williams' asking price wouldn't have been so high. It's not like Williams is the best player at his position. He simply hit free agency at a young age and when there was a lack of defensive linemen available.

[Patler]

Williams and Harrell aren't comparable as many have said. My largest concern with losing Williams is the inconsistent play of Cole and Jolly's injury. I wouldn't be shocked if the Packers have someone in mind to bring in for less money.

If there were anyone on their level to bring in, we wouldn't have gotten the trade and Williams' asking price wouldn't have been so high. It's not like Williams is the best player at his position. He simply hit free agency at a young age and when there was a lack of defensive linemen available.

We can always hope that TT sees something in someone that many others overlook. Pickett is a good example. While some teams were interested in him, he was not vigorously pursued, and the Packers got him at a reasonable price. He was mired in a line of high draft pick underachievers at St. Louis and many lumped him in with the others, in spite of good statistics.

[Fritz]

Williams made the most of his opportunity, but my sense is that TT just didn't see him as a six million dollar a year player. Good, but not worth that kind of cash. So he got what he could, which is a lot, I think.

Two second rounders now, in a deep draft. I like it. I only cringe to think of all the writers and posters who will clamore for TT to trade it all away so he can move up to the top ten or something...

I'd rather see TT trade down out of the first round, if he's going to do anything.

[PaCkFan_n_MD]

I'd rather see TT trade down out of the first round, if he's going to do anything.

Me to. I would never want to put my whole draft on just one pick. Also, people think that we don't have many needs, but I still see a lot of holes that need filling. We need two CB's for the future, one TE, one OG, one T for the future, one DE, one DT (depth), and one OLB.

[Brohm]

I could see TT trading out of the first (#30) and picking up another 2 + a second day pick. Then maybe trading a 2 for a 3 + 4/5. I think we'll have ~10 draftees again :P

Think about it...Kampman, Jolly, Williams, KGB...where all 5-6 rounders :shock:

[Carolina_Packer]

Williams and Harrell aren't comparable as many have said. My largest concern with losing Williams is the inconsistent play of Cole and Jolly's injury. I wouldn't be shocked if the Packers have someone in mind to bring in for less money.

That's what I was thinking too. They now need another person for depth, even though they have Harrell. If they had to field a D-line today (and assuming all players were healthy enough to go) it would be:

Starters
DE Kampman
DT Jolly
DT Pickett
DE Jenkins

Backups
DE KGB, Montgomery
DT Harrell, Bolton
DT Cole, Muir, Malone
DE Hunter

3rd Down
DE Kampman
DL Jenkins
DL Pickett or Harrell
DE KGB

That's not too shabby, IMO. Another DE for depth and development would be killer.

[Patler]

If they had to field a D-line today (and assuming all players were healthy enough to go) it would be:

...
3rd Down
DE Kampman
DL Jenkins
DL Pickett or Harrell
DE KGB


That part bothers me a little.
In a clear passing situation, it won't be Pickett, and Harrell didn't show much last year. Jolly at least showed awareness of passing lanes and blocked a few passes. He might be the better 3rd down choice, unless Harrell shows something.

[Fritz]

One of the arguments for moving up is that you are more likely to get a player who is NFL-ready. But at what position do the Packers "need" someone who can step in and start immediately?

Guard, maybe? And of all the positions that are most difficult to step into immediately, isn't guard one of the most difficult?

I don't see the need to move up, unless TT and the scouting department are convinced that some guy sitting around #17 or so is a superstar-in-waiting.

I'm hoping TT will take advantage of the depth of the draft, and pick up some guys in the second round and beyond who can develop into excellent players.This team has the luxury of allowing young players to develop now. There is no need to panic and move up, or sign a high-priced free agent just because.

Last year we all almored for Marshawn Lynch, who of course went at #12, I think, to the Bills. Was Lynch demonstrably better than Ryan Grant, who was worth a sixth round pick?

[Patler]

There is no reason not to expect Harrell, Muir and even Jolly to be better players than they were last year. Unfortunately, there is no assurance that they will. The same can be said for the half-dozen guard candidates on the team

[Scott Campbell]

Last year we all almored for Marshawn Lynch, who of course went at #12, I think, to the Bills. Was Lynch demonstrably better than Ryan Grant, who was worth a sixth round pick?


No, he was not.


Wait, was that a rhetorical question?

[Partial]

I'd rather see TT trade down out of the first round, if he's going to do anything.

Me to. I would never want to put my whole draft on just one pick. Also, people think that we don't have many needs, but I still see a lot of holes that need filling. We need two CB's for the future, one TE, one OG, one T for the future, one DE, one DT (depth), and one OLB.

While I agree those positions could afford to be strengthened, they're on the lower end of the roster and won't win or lose you games. We've do need one corner and a TE, but the other holes we did just fine with last year.

[rbaloha1]

Harrell was coming off injury and was never really in football shape. Flashed power and explosion of a future pro bowler.

Expect Harrell to start and be in contention for the pro bowl in year three. Also the scheme is designed for the defensive ends and linebackers have the great stats.

Be patient with Harrell.

[Bretsky]

Harrell was coming off injury and was never really in football shape. Flashed power and explosion of a future pro bowler.

Expect Harrell to start and be in contention for the pro bowl in year three. Also the scheme is designed for the defensive ends and linebackers have the great stats.

Be patient with Harrell.


I saw potential, but I'm not sure I saw explosion yet. I think he'll be alright; I hope he becomes dominant