motife
03-18-2008, 05:10 PM
Come draft day, all 32 NFL draft rooms are fully stocked with prospect rankings both by position and regardless of position. General managers package these rankings in a number of different ways to streamline the information and help maintain perspective. This is critical during the stressful and frantic draft weekend.
The "Stacking the Board" document we have shared with you in the past -- and will make available once again beginning in early April -- is an excellent example of a way to organize rankings. It gives the evaluator a quick way to compare player values on a round-by-round basis from one position to the next.
The following breakdown, which I've dubbed "Rankings Tiers", is yet another variation that at least two general managers I know keep handy throughout the process. While it is basic in design, the simplest approach is often the best approach and it can be extremely helpful in laying out the true strength of a draft class.
Since the draft has been broken into two days and seven rounds for several years now, it is commonplace for a prospect to be labeled within those tiers. For example, "Joe Smith is a second-rounder" or "John Doe has the look of a Day 2 player." The problem is those tiers are too broad, so they aren't a great deal of help. But breaking a draft board into more specific tiers can help avoid sweeping generalizations and make it easier to quickly separate players.
The key is allowing the players' skill level to dictate the size of a given tier. For example, I believe this year's Elite Tier is six players deep, which is slightly smaller than the eight players who were there last year.
If followed properly, this list serves two important purposes. First, it can help a team avoid reaching for a position of need. For example, take the Chiefs. Assuming Michigan OT Jake Long is selected in the first four picks, it would be a lot easier for general manager Carl Peterson to reach for Boise State OT Ryan Clady if he's looking at a generic printout that has Long ranked No. 2 and Clady No. 8. After all, Peterson would be taking the eighth-best player with the fifth overall selection. Not too bad, right?
Well, if he's looking at the tiered breakdown below, it's a bit more complicated because he's passing on an "elite" prospect in order to reach for what is considered a second-tier prospect (according to my breakdown, of course).
Second, the tier system can provide a clearer sense for trading value in a given draft. While the famous "Trade Value Chart" is helpful, it must be adjusted annually to match the strength of each draft class, and that's where the tiers come into play. If I believe there are six elite players in this year's class compared to eight elite players in 2007, picks No. 7 and 8 overall should carry less value this year then they did a year ago.
While the rankings will inevitably change slightly between now and draft weekend (April 26-27), below is an early look at what I consider to be the top six tiers of talent in the 2008 class. This is not a mock draft, nor is it a reflection of where I think a player will be selected. It's simply my view on where the top prospects rank in relation to the overall strength of the 2008 draft class.
Elite Tier
Prospect School Position Height Weight Speed Grade
1. Chris Long DE Virginia 6-3 272 4.75 98
2. Darren McFadden RB Arkansas 6-1¼ 211 4.33 98
3. Jake Long OT Michigan 6-7 313 5.22 98
4. Glenn Dorsey DT LSU 6-1½ 297 5.10 98
5. Matt Ryan QB Boston College 6-4¾ 228 4.95 98
6. Sedrick Ellis DT USC 6-0½ 309 5.32 97
Second Tier
Prospect School Position Height Weight Speed Grade
7. Vernon Gholston DE/OLB Ohio State 6-3 266 4.67 96
8. Ryan Clady OT Boise State 6-6⅛ 211 4.33 95
9. Rashard Mendenhall RB Illinois 5-10⅛ 225 4.55 95
10. Keith Rivers OLB USC 6-2½ 241 4.60 95
11. Leodis McKelvin CB Troy 5-10½ 190 4.38 95
12. Derrick Harvey DE Florida 6-4⅝ 271 4.85 94
13. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie CB Tennessee State 6-1½ 184 4.33 94
14. Chris Williams OT Vanderbilt 6-6 315 5.17 94
15. Jeff Otah OT Pittsburgh 6-6 322 5.56 93
16. Mike Jenkins CB South Florida 5-10¼ 197 4.38 93
Third Tier
Prospect School Position Height Weight Speed Grade
17. Malcolm Kelly WR Oklahoma 6-3¾ 224 4.50 93
18. Philip Merling DE Clemson 6-4¼ 279 4.71 93
19. Branden Albert G Virginia 6-5⅝ 309 5.17 92
20. DeSean Jackson WR California 5-9¾ 169 4.35 92
21. Jerod Mayo OLB Tennessee 6-1½ 242 4.54 92
22. Brian Brohm QB Louisville 6-4⅞ 230 4.83 92
23. Aqib Talib CB Kansas 6-0¾ 202 4.44 92
24. Limas Sweed WR Texas 6-3⅞ 215 4.55 92
25. Calais Campbell DE Miami 6-7¾ 290 5.04 91
26. Mario Manningham WR Michigan 5-11¾ 181 4.60 91
27. Jonathan Stewart RB Oregon 5-10¼ 235 4.48 91
Fourth Tier (Fringe First Round)
Prospect School Position Height Weight Speed Grade
28. Kentwan Balmer DT North Carolina 6-4½ 308 5.34 90
29. Dan Connor ILB Penn State 6-2⅜ 231 4.60 90
30. Devin Thomas WR Michigan State 6-1⅞ 216 4.40 90
31. Dustin Keller TE Purdue 6-2 242 4.55 90
32. Brandon Flowers CB Virginia Tech 5-10¾ 189 4.55 90
33. Gosder Cherilus OT Boston College 6-6⅜ 314 5.21 89
34. Pat Sims DT Auburn 6-2⅛ 310 5.09 89
35. Kenny Phillips S Miami 6-2¼ 212 4.48 89
36. Fred Davis TE USC 6-3 255 4.70 89
Fifth Tier (Solid Second Round)
Prospect School Position Height Weight Speed Grade
37. Curtis Lofton ILB Oklahoma 6-0 246 4.79 88
38. James Hardy WR Indiana 6-5⅜ 217 4.49 88
39. Chad Henne QB Michigan 6-2⅞ 230 4.92 88
40. Early Doucet WR LSU 6-0⅛ 209 4.56 87
41. Joe Flacco QB Delaware 6-6⅜ 236 4.86 87
42. Tracy Porter CB Indiana 5-10⅞ 188 4.37 87
43. Felix Jones RB Arkansas 5-10⅛ 204 4.47 87
44. Sam Baker OT USC 6-4⅝ 309 5.30 87
45. Lavelle Hawkins WR California 5-11 187 4.59 86
46. Cliff Avril DE Purdue 6-2⅞ 253 4.51 86
47. Trevor Laws DT Notre Dame 6-0¾ 304 5.13 86
48. Ray Rice RB Rutgers 5-8 189 4.47 86
49. Lawrence Jackson DE USC 6-4¼ 271 4.82 85
50. Antoine Cason CB Arizona 6-0¼ 191 4.45 85
51. Quentin Groves DE Auburn 6-3 257 4.57 84
52. Justin King CB Penn State 5-10⅞ 192 4.31 84
53. John Carlson TE Notre Dame 6-5⅛ 251 4.88 84
54. Reggie Smith CB Oklahoma 6-0½ 199 4.55 83
55. Mike Pollak C Arizona State 6-3½ 301 5.02 83
Sixth Tier (Fringe Second Round)
Prospect School Position Height Weight Speed Grade
56. Jammal Charles RB Texas 5-10 200 4.38 82
57. Carl Nicks OT Nebraska 6-4⅞ 341 5.22 82
58. Chilo Rachal G USC 6-5 315 5.23 82
59. Xavier Adibi OLB Virginia Tech 6-1¾ 232 4.69 81
60. Andre' Woodson QB Kentucky 6-4 229 4.84 81
61. Anthony Collins OT Kansas 6-5 317 5.06 81
62. Dejuan Morgan S N.C. State 6-0⅛ 205 4.56 80
63. Patrick Lee CB Auburn 6-0 200 4.41 80
64. Jerome Simpson WR Appalachian State 6-1¾ 199 4.47 80
Todd McShay is the director of college football scouting for Scouts Inc. He has been evaluating prospects for the NFL draft since 1998.
The "Stacking the Board" document we have shared with you in the past -- and will make available once again beginning in early April -- is an excellent example of a way to organize rankings. It gives the evaluator a quick way to compare player values on a round-by-round basis from one position to the next.
The following breakdown, which I've dubbed "Rankings Tiers", is yet another variation that at least two general managers I know keep handy throughout the process. While it is basic in design, the simplest approach is often the best approach and it can be extremely helpful in laying out the true strength of a draft class.
Since the draft has been broken into two days and seven rounds for several years now, it is commonplace for a prospect to be labeled within those tiers. For example, "Joe Smith is a second-rounder" or "John Doe has the look of a Day 2 player." The problem is those tiers are too broad, so they aren't a great deal of help. But breaking a draft board into more specific tiers can help avoid sweeping generalizations and make it easier to quickly separate players.
The key is allowing the players' skill level to dictate the size of a given tier. For example, I believe this year's Elite Tier is six players deep, which is slightly smaller than the eight players who were there last year.
If followed properly, this list serves two important purposes. First, it can help a team avoid reaching for a position of need. For example, take the Chiefs. Assuming Michigan OT Jake Long is selected in the first four picks, it would be a lot easier for general manager Carl Peterson to reach for Boise State OT Ryan Clady if he's looking at a generic printout that has Long ranked No. 2 and Clady No. 8. After all, Peterson would be taking the eighth-best player with the fifth overall selection. Not too bad, right?
Well, if he's looking at the tiered breakdown below, it's a bit more complicated because he's passing on an "elite" prospect in order to reach for what is considered a second-tier prospect (according to my breakdown, of course).
Second, the tier system can provide a clearer sense for trading value in a given draft. While the famous "Trade Value Chart" is helpful, it must be adjusted annually to match the strength of each draft class, and that's where the tiers come into play. If I believe there are six elite players in this year's class compared to eight elite players in 2007, picks No. 7 and 8 overall should carry less value this year then they did a year ago.
While the rankings will inevitably change slightly between now and draft weekend (April 26-27), below is an early look at what I consider to be the top six tiers of talent in the 2008 class. This is not a mock draft, nor is it a reflection of where I think a player will be selected. It's simply my view on where the top prospects rank in relation to the overall strength of the 2008 draft class.
Elite Tier
Prospect School Position Height Weight Speed Grade
1. Chris Long DE Virginia 6-3 272 4.75 98
2. Darren McFadden RB Arkansas 6-1¼ 211 4.33 98
3. Jake Long OT Michigan 6-7 313 5.22 98
4. Glenn Dorsey DT LSU 6-1½ 297 5.10 98
5. Matt Ryan QB Boston College 6-4¾ 228 4.95 98
6. Sedrick Ellis DT USC 6-0½ 309 5.32 97
Second Tier
Prospect School Position Height Weight Speed Grade
7. Vernon Gholston DE/OLB Ohio State 6-3 266 4.67 96
8. Ryan Clady OT Boise State 6-6⅛ 211 4.33 95
9. Rashard Mendenhall RB Illinois 5-10⅛ 225 4.55 95
10. Keith Rivers OLB USC 6-2½ 241 4.60 95
11. Leodis McKelvin CB Troy 5-10½ 190 4.38 95
12. Derrick Harvey DE Florida 6-4⅝ 271 4.85 94
13. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie CB Tennessee State 6-1½ 184 4.33 94
14. Chris Williams OT Vanderbilt 6-6 315 5.17 94
15. Jeff Otah OT Pittsburgh 6-6 322 5.56 93
16. Mike Jenkins CB South Florida 5-10¼ 197 4.38 93
Third Tier
Prospect School Position Height Weight Speed Grade
17. Malcolm Kelly WR Oklahoma 6-3¾ 224 4.50 93
18. Philip Merling DE Clemson 6-4¼ 279 4.71 93
19. Branden Albert G Virginia 6-5⅝ 309 5.17 92
20. DeSean Jackson WR California 5-9¾ 169 4.35 92
21. Jerod Mayo OLB Tennessee 6-1½ 242 4.54 92
22. Brian Brohm QB Louisville 6-4⅞ 230 4.83 92
23. Aqib Talib CB Kansas 6-0¾ 202 4.44 92
24. Limas Sweed WR Texas 6-3⅞ 215 4.55 92
25. Calais Campbell DE Miami 6-7¾ 290 5.04 91
26. Mario Manningham WR Michigan 5-11¾ 181 4.60 91
27. Jonathan Stewart RB Oregon 5-10¼ 235 4.48 91
Fourth Tier (Fringe First Round)
Prospect School Position Height Weight Speed Grade
28. Kentwan Balmer DT North Carolina 6-4½ 308 5.34 90
29. Dan Connor ILB Penn State 6-2⅜ 231 4.60 90
30. Devin Thomas WR Michigan State 6-1⅞ 216 4.40 90
31. Dustin Keller TE Purdue 6-2 242 4.55 90
32. Brandon Flowers CB Virginia Tech 5-10¾ 189 4.55 90
33. Gosder Cherilus OT Boston College 6-6⅜ 314 5.21 89
34. Pat Sims DT Auburn 6-2⅛ 310 5.09 89
35. Kenny Phillips S Miami 6-2¼ 212 4.48 89
36. Fred Davis TE USC 6-3 255 4.70 89
Fifth Tier (Solid Second Round)
Prospect School Position Height Weight Speed Grade
37. Curtis Lofton ILB Oklahoma 6-0 246 4.79 88
38. James Hardy WR Indiana 6-5⅜ 217 4.49 88
39. Chad Henne QB Michigan 6-2⅞ 230 4.92 88
40. Early Doucet WR LSU 6-0⅛ 209 4.56 87
41. Joe Flacco QB Delaware 6-6⅜ 236 4.86 87
42. Tracy Porter CB Indiana 5-10⅞ 188 4.37 87
43. Felix Jones RB Arkansas 5-10⅛ 204 4.47 87
44. Sam Baker OT USC 6-4⅝ 309 5.30 87
45. Lavelle Hawkins WR California 5-11 187 4.59 86
46. Cliff Avril DE Purdue 6-2⅞ 253 4.51 86
47. Trevor Laws DT Notre Dame 6-0¾ 304 5.13 86
48. Ray Rice RB Rutgers 5-8 189 4.47 86
49. Lawrence Jackson DE USC 6-4¼ 271 4.82 85
50. Antoine Cason CB Arizona 6-0¼ 191 4.45 85
51. Quentin Groves DE Auburn 6-3 257 4.57 84
52. Justin King CB Penn State 5-10⅞ 192 4.31 84
53. John Carlson TE Notre Dame 6-5⅛ 251 4.88 84
54. Reggie Smith CB Oklahoma 6-0½ 199 4.55 83
55. Mike Pollak C Arizona State 6-3½ 301 5.02 83
Sixth Tier (Fringe Second Round)
Prospect School Position Height Weight Speed Grade
56. Jammal Charles RB Texas 5-10 200 4.38 82
57. Carl Nicks OT Nebraska 6-4⅞ 341 5.22 82
58. Chilo Rachal G USC 6-5 315 5.23 82
59. Xavier Adibi OLB Virginia Tech 6-1¾ 232 4.69 81
60. Andre' Woodson QB Kentucky 6-4 229 4.84 81
61. Anthony Collins OT Kansas 6-5 317 5.06 81
62. Dejuan Morgan S N.C. State 6-0⅛ 205 4.56 80
63. Patrick Lee CB Auburn 6-0 200 4.41 80
64. Jerome Simpson WR Appalachian State 6-1¾ 199 4.47 80
Todd McShay is the director of college football scouting for Scouts Inc. He has been evaluating prospects for the NFL draft since 1998.