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motife
03-20-2008, 03:04 PM
Reversing the curse
Rodgers needs to overcome a disturbing trend to find success
By Matt Sohn (msohn@pfwmedia.com)

The pressure is on for Aaron Rodgers. After three years of riding the pine, the Packers’ 2005 first-round draft pick will be front and under center in 2008. Finally, he gets his turn to write his own chapter to a quarterbacking legacy that began when he was still in elementary school. For his sake, I certainly hope it’s a chapter far different from what was written before him, because the quarterbacking legacy he’s continuing is not a proud one.

It’s a legacy of wasted talent and unfulfilled promise. A legacy marked by heads hanging low and a short supply of high-fiving. A legacy that proves the phrase “perpetual inconsistency” isn’t so oxymoronic.

I try to find silver linings in most situations, but when looking at the quarterbacking lineage Rodgers is coming from, it’s awfully difficult to find one. True, there’s one Super Bowl ring in the mix, but that was won mainly because of a dominating defense.

That ring aside, Trent Dilfer’s career is a study in mediocrity. But even that is more than the other representatives of this legacy can say. Akili Smith, the poster boy for the Bengals’ futility in the post-Boomer Esiason era, made just 22 NFL appearances before trudging up to the Canadian Football League. David Carr epitomized similar ineptitude in Houston and then, last year, was benched in Carolina in favor of 43-year-old Vinny Testaverde and undrafted rookie Matt Moore. While Moore’s not a member of this most tarnished fraternity, his predecessor in high school, Kyle Boller, is. Boller has 18 more turnovers than touchdowns during his five years in Baltimore, a stint that you know has been bad when the fans look back nostalgically on the Dilfer days. Joey Harrington has taken turns flopping in Detroit and Miami but was just re-signed by Atlanta, a surprise considering he’s coming off a seven-touchdown, eight-interception season. After seeing your $100 million man banished behind bars for slaying canines, I suppose an affable piano player is a suitable option, regardless of how badly he stinks up the field on Sundays.

But being the unwitting owners of forgettable NFL careers isn’t what links Dilfer, Smith, Carr, Boller and Harrington. What does link them is that all were first-round busts who honed their games under Jeff Tedford.

Just 46 years old, Tedford stands as one of college football’s most accomplished QB tutors. After serving as offensive coordinator at Fresno State (1993-97) and Oregon (1998-2001), he has spent the last six years raising California to national prominence as head coach. At all three stops, his success was largely based on making stars out of quarterbacks such as the aforementioned five — though it should be noted that he worked with Carr only during the quarterback’s first year at Fresno State.

But unlike other renowned college QB gurus, such as Norm Chow — who worked with Steve Young and Carson Palmer, among others — Tedford’s products have gone belly-up when they reached the pro game. But finding a reason why is a tough task. It’s not as if he runs a gimmicky, pass-happy offense like June Jones at Hawaii or Mike Leach at Texas Tech, a pair of offenses that produce gaudy numbers but don’t prepare quarterbacks to run the more balanced systems of the NFL. Since 2004, Tedford has seen RB J.J. Arrington rush for a 2,000-yard season and RB Marshawn Lynch get drafted in the first round. So, why have the passers flopped? More importantly, is there reason to believe Rodgers, the sixth first-round Tedford quarterback, will be different?

In Tedford’s eyes, he’s almost a victim of his own success.

“I think (my disappointing NFL QBs) get magnified because there are six (including Rodgers) of them that were first-round picks that I just happened to have coached,” Tedford said. “There’s just so many of them that have come from my system that they get lumped together. I wish somebody would do a study about first-round quarterbacks and how successful they are. I think there’s a lot of them who have ended up in the same boat. Think about the Heath Shulers of the world and the David Klinglers, the Andre Wares and the Tim Couches.”

http://www.profootballweekly.com/NR/rdonlyres/edaoh6ozaqvft5uidwfpulq6zubh7zi4npkb6i2en6k2atpgwp qwbptkafuge4ajkuqapve4uttu6n/RodgersTedford200.jpg
Packers QB Aaron Rodgers
and Cal QB guru Jeff Tedford

He raises a good point. In the absence of a tangible reason as to why Tedford’s quarterbacks haven’t fared well in the pros — and neither he nor I have found one — it’s fair to question whether five players is too small a sample size to draw a broad conclusion that future Tedford products will similarly fail. It probably is, although it does seem to be a pretty big coincidence.
When comparing Rodgers to the others, there are significant differences with the situations they were put in. Rodgers sat for three years behind Brett Favre, while the other five were thrust into the starting lineup in their rookie seasons, with Boller and Carr getting the nod in Week One.

Whether or not playing immediately hinders a quarterback’s development, or waiting helps him, I don’t know. There are examples supporting both claims.

However, I do think there’s one situational difference that bodes well for Rodgers: The Packers have talent. Lots of it. With the league’s youngest roster in 2007, they still came within a field goal of reaching the Super Bowl, and the key ingredients are coming back. The offense is particularly loaded, courtesy of a stout line, a punishing running back in Ryan Grant and a trio of quality receivers in Greg Jennings, Donald Driver and James Jones. None of the other Tedford quarterbacks had nearly the supporting cast that Rodgers will have.

Essentially, Rodgers doesn’t need to be spectacular, or force the issue, for the Pack to win. He needs to make sound decisions, which is something I’m confident he’ll be doing after seeing him execute one of the most memorable quarterbacking displays I’ve ever seen on Oct. 9, 2004.

Facing top-ranked USC at the L.A. Coliseum his final year at Cal, Rodgers played small ball up and down the field. The Trojans were sitting back in a soft zone, and Rodgers responded by firing quick, direct passes throughout the game, none of which exceeded 10-15 yards. He completed 23 straight passes to start the game. Was it the most breathtaking performance? Hardly. But it was memorable because of the incredible patience he showed, not once tempted to force the deep ball.

“He tucked it and ran it a couple times, and he hit guys on some plays that weren’t the intended target,” Tedford added. “Most of the time it was just him making the right read and being very accurate. He went into that game with a great deal of confidence and an understanding of what he was doing.”

Didn’t matter that Cal ultimately lost by six points. He made a believer out of me that day. But now he must do it in the NFL all over again, something his former coach is confident he’ll succeed in doing.

“Aaron is as well-rounded as any quarterback I’ve coached, as far as having poise, having intelligence, having arm strength and being efficient,” Tedford said.

Will Rodgers be the next Brett Favre? I highly doubt it. But I’d be even more surprised if he’s the next David Carr.

packrulz
03-20-2008, 04:44 PM
I think this whole idea that all Tedford coached QB's will fail in the NFL is stupid, like it's some sort of hex or something. Arod will do fine as long as he plays his game, and not try to be Brett Favre. I don't mind if he throws a lot of 5 yard passes, as long as he can get the first down. A lot of Tedford QB's were thrown into the fire without the chance to learn the plays and speed of the NFL, that's why they failed.

run pMc
03-21-2008, 08:58 AM
I agree. I don't care if he throws a bunch of 5 yd passes, especially if he complete 20+ in a row... It's not very exciting for some to watch, but it means long drives and that keeps the D off the field.

The writer points out JJ Arrington had a 2000 yd season...but he failed to mention this wasn't in the NFL. It's possible that the QB hex is as much about supporting cast and coincidence as it is for the RB's: consider that Arrington has bombed in the pros (in ARI) while Lynch played well in BUF.

Pack-man
03-21-2008, 09:37 AM
Isn't the true West Coast offense an short passing ball control offense? So throwing 5 yard passes is just fine. If he plays like he did against Dallas and just manages the game, with short passes the Pack will be just fine.

mission
03-21-2008, 10:11 AM
think about it ...

how important was that dallas game for everybody? especially rodgers but man, i was a big time rodgers non-believer but after that one half, im just fine with watching him manage us to some wins this year. after seeing eli win a super bowl and realizing that we dont need a peyton at the helm to do it, im ok...

but it's funny because if that half or whatever it was never happened, the tone of this forum would be 180 degrees different. it would be bedlam!! serious... one half calms the contingency nerves for a whole off season? it's kind of funny.

im sure folks will chime in and say how they're nervous or the whole injury thing which definitely has me nervous as well but we'll see ... i like his swagger. he's cocky ... that's so important. im lookin forward to this year.

brett's done, nothing we can do about it. let's see where it goes now.

Pack-man
03-21-2008, 10:23 AM
think about it ...

how important was that dallas game for everybody? especially rodgers but man, i was a big time rodgers non-believer but after that one half, im just fine with watching him manage us to some wins this year. after seeing eli win a super bowl and realizing that we dont need a peyton at the helm to do it, im ok...

but it's funny because if that half or whatever it was never happened, the tone of this forum would be 180 degrees different. it would be bedlam!! serious... one half calms the contingency nerves for a whole off season? it's kind of funny.

im sure folks will chime in and say how they're nervous or the whole injury thing which definitely has me nervous as well but we'll see ... i like his swagger. he's cocky ... that's so important. im lookin forward to this year.

brett's done, nothing we can do about it. let's see where it goes now.

Good points. The Dallas game made me feel alot better, yeah I'm worried about the health issue. But lets face it Brett Favre was a freak, no QB plays that many games without missing a game.

I think they need to continue to improve the "D". If the "D" can become dominant then all we need ARod to do is "manage" the game like Eli did.

Guiness
03-21-2008, 10:26 AM
So much has been made of the 'Tedford QB's'.

I disagree with the writer that 5 QB's aren't enough to start to draw conclusions. 5 first round players at one position is certainly enough to look at some trends.

I think I subscribe to the theory that he gets the most out of his QB's, and they're at or near their full potential by the end of their college careers - but I also think that QB's that get thrown in to start almost immediately have much less chance of succeeding. Dilfer's accomplished the most out of the 5, and I don't just mean the ring...he's played in the league, mostly as a starter, which some success, for some time.

edit: I don't know if I had a point here :D

RashanGary
03-21-2008, 10:38 AM
Haha Mission, you hit it right on the head. Everyone is calm as tibetan cows but really, with the success of QB's following legends we could easily be panicking. I'll admit, before that game I doubted Rodgers would pan out. I still worry that he's going to suck it up. That one half of football was promising though. As soon as Rodgers came in, the Packers played well. It was like Wolf used to say about Favre, when he came in the game, the field titled in his teams favor. That sort of happened with Rodgers. As soon as he came in we started driving down the field. We'll see how it goes, but that one half of football definitly seems to be influencing everyones calm attitudes. I also think Favre retiring calmed people down from the "sell the farm for Favre" mentality. Now Favre fans just sort of don't post and all we're left with is level headed packer fans. It's kind of boring :(

BallHawk
03-21-2008, 10:57 AM
Everyone is calm as tibetan cows

Judging the current situation in Tibet, maybe that isn't the best analogy. :lol:

And what Favre fans do we have that aren't posting as much now?

red
03-21-2008, 11:01 AM
in our offense with driver, jennings and jones, all he has to do is throw those 5 yards passes and lets those guys turn them into huge plays

thats our system, he should fit it perfectly

mission
03-21-2008, 11:02 AM
Haha Mission, you hit it right on the head. Everyone is calm as tibetan cows but really, with the success of QB's following legends we could easily be panicking. I'll admit, before that game I doubted Rodgers would pan out. I still worry that he's going to suck it up. That one half of football was promising though. As soon as Rodgers came in, the Packers played well. It was like Wolf used to say about Favre, when he came in the game, the field titled in his teams favor. That sort of happened with Rodgers. As soon as he came in we started driving down the field. We'll see how it goes, but that one half of football definitly seems to be influencing everyones calm attitudes. I also think Favre retiring calmed people down from the "sell the farm for Favre" mentality. Now Favre fans just sort of don't post and all we're left with is level headed packer fans. It's kind of boring :(

exactly.

last year ... shit...

between "we're going to win 3 games" and "fire ted thompson", this place was out of control! i think i might even have my name on the old (no longer around) fire ted thompson petition. boy, was i adamant!

just goes to show we're all passionate, we all know EVERYTHING but at the end of the day, we're just a bunch of fans and the reason the NFL is so popular is cuz you just never gonna know how it'll turn out. every market has a hope...

and im really excited, honestly, about where TT is takin this franchise. for better or worse, i was ready for something new. i love brett, ive been quoted as saying i would boo jesus before booing brett favre but really, im old enough to have seen his whole career. im curious now... this is the most excited ive been for a new season since probably 97-98 ...

POLISHHAWK
03-21-2008, 12:35 PM
NFL Blitz (Siruis Radio). Wilcots believes GB Offense will be BETTER this year because AROD will add another dimension to the offense - can scramble. He also believes he will stay more in the system than Favre did, and not make the foolish mistakes.

MadtownPacker
03-21-2008, 01:11 PM
NFL Blitz (Siruis Radio). Wilcots believes GB Offense will be BETTER this year because AROD will add another dimension to the offense - can scramble. He also believes he will stay more in the system than Favre did, and not make the foolish mistakes.I dont remember the playbook calling for the QB to run for first downs. In fact I thought the scheme calls for the QB to take the short pass and allow the receiver to get some YAC.

ARod will be luck to have one season in his whole career like the one Favre did last year.

and JustineHarrell, I'm a "Favre fan" and Im still here ready to bitchslap your "levelheaded" ass at a moments notice.

Pack-man
03-21-2008, 01:21 PM
NFL Blitz (Siruis Radio). Wilcots believes GB Offense will be BETTER this year because AROD will add another dimension to the offense - can scramble. He also believes he will stay more in the system than Favre did, and not make the foolish mistakes.

I can't argue with this. I do believe the offense can be better. The young OL & WR both have another year under their belts. Having Grant all year should help! IF Rogers doesn't try to be Brett Favre he will be just fine. No reason the offense can't be more productive!

Bretsky
03-21-2008, 04:35 PM
NFL Blitz (Siruis Radio). Wilcots believes GB Offense will be BETTER this year because AROD will add another dimension to the offense - can scramble. He also believes he will stay more in the system than Favre did, and not make the foolish mistakes.

I can't argue with this. I do believe the offense can be better. The young OL & WR both have another year under their belts. Having Grant all year should help! IF Rogers doesn't try to be Brett Favre he will be just fine. No reason the offense can't be more productive!


Favre has an ability to often feel the rush and get rid of the ball; the fact that running was of no interest to him helped him with what is the greatest record of all time

It's great AROD is mobile; but his mobility will also make him quite succeptible to further injury. It could also be a downfall when you consider this.

Partial
03-21-2008, 10:42 PM
NFL Blitz (Siruis Radio). Wilcots believes GB Offense will be BETTER this year because AROD will add another dimension to the offense - can scramble. He also believes he will stay more in the system than Favre did, and not make the foolish mistakes.

He's dead wrong.

Merlin
03-21-2008, 10:53 PM
NFL Blitz (Siruis Radio). Wilcots believes GB Offense will be BETTER this year because AROD will add another dimension to the offense - can scramble. He also believes he will stay more in the system than Favre did, and not make the foolish mistakes.

Favre made our offensive line look better then it was for the past two seasons because of his pocket presence, ability to get rid of the ball, and his ability to avoid the sack. Rodgers can scramble, and?

I think too little is being made of Tedford QB's here. It's fine to support Rodgers, hell we have no choice. But all this about "new dimension", "5 yard passes" is just a bunch of crap. When Rodgers decides not to lock onto his primary receiver and only throw to his primary receiver (I bet you missed that in the Dallas game), then his scrambling will be relevant. Until then, it will take teams 1 game to figure out he can't read the defense and then all that scrambling will be for 5 yards on 3rd down when we need 10. I support the guy, but let's not get all stupid about it. He hasn't shown any ability what-so-ever that he is a starting QB in the NFL. The Dallas game helped prove some things, but be realistic about it. Dallas didn't prepare for Rodgers, they prepared for Favre. Of course he gets an advantage from that. There was no film on Rodgers, now there is. Gee, what do you think teams will do come regular season? Plan for Favre or plan for a guy who can't look off his primary receiver and runs with the ball? My bet is that they won't be planning for Favre...

BZnDallas
03-22-2008, 12:12 AM
you make some good points merlin... i can tell you that being down here in dallas people said the same things about romo... "wait until defenses have film on him then see"... i was one of them... but i gotta say that i'm much more optimistic about rodgers having seem some type of production and knowing he is not going to throw the ball into the ground everytime he steps back to pass... i think ted has done a fine job at putting together a football team made of football players and that can only help the qb position and/or rodgers...

Chester Marcol
03-24-2008, 10:35 AM
NFL Blitz (Siruis Radio). Wilcots believes GB Offense will be BETTER this year because AROD will add another dimension to the offense - can scramble. He also believes he will stay more in the system than Favre did, and not make the foolish mistakes.

I can't argue with this. I do believe the offense can be better. The young OL & WR both have another year under their belts. Having Grant all year should help! IF Rogers doesn't try to be Brett Favre he will be just fine. No reason the offense can't be more productive!


Favre has an ability to often feel the rush and get rid of the ball; the fact that running was of no interest to him helped him with what is the greatest record of all time

It's great AROD is mobile; but his mobility will also make him quite succeptible to further injury. It could also be a downfall when you consider this.

Unfortunately none of those abilities were able to get us another Super Bowl win, let alone many playoff wins. The talk here is like we had a quarterback who won us a ton of Super Bowls.

There are 2 things about Rodgers that has me more optimistic that he will have a better playoff record than Favre. 1 is, I don't think Rodgers will have free reign to do the risky crap that Favre did. I think Rodgers will have to play within the offense and will do it a lot better than Favre. I say in a similar situation as the playoff loss(and to many other numorous times to count), Rodgers hits the player that is wide open, not force a pass and getting picked off. 2, after watching Favre against the Giants, he really didn't seem to be all there. Not that I believe Favre was phoning it in, I just think Rodgers will be more hungry to get to a Super Bowl no matter the weather. With the team being built more complete and not QB centric, I think Rodgers will have a lot better playoff record than Favre.

Pack-man
03-24-2008, 11:28 AM
NFL Blitz (Siruis Radio). Wilcots believes GB Offense will be BETTER this year because AROD will add another dimension to the offense - can scramble. He also believes he will stay more in the system than Favre did, and not make the foolish mistakes.

I can't argue with this. I do believe the offense can be better. The young OL & WR both have another year under their belts. Having Grant all year should help! IF Rogers doesn't try to be Brett Favre he will be just fine. No reason the offense can't be more productive!


Favre has an ability to often feel the rush and get rid of the ball; the fact that running was of no interest to him helped him with what is the greatest record of all time

It's great AROD is mobile; but his mobility will also make him quite succeptible to further injury. It could also be a downfall when you consider this.

You are right that Favre did feel the rush and would get rid of the ball. This is something that has to be learned from experience. Hopefully ARod will also learn to throw the ball out of bounds when he feels the rush. This is something that Favre never really learned. He always felt he could make a play. He got in trouble many time by just getting rid of it and chucking it up and having in intercepted. Granted more often he did complete the pass.

Being mobile can only help for so long, eventually scrambling/running QB's get hurt and go down. This may very well be his downfall.

MadtownPacker
03-24-2008, 12:14 PM
Being mobile can only help for so long, eventually scrambling/running QB's get hurt and go down. This may very well be his downfall.That is what Im thinking too. Both of Rodgers injuries have been legs/foot stuff so I really dont want to see him running unless a giant hole is in front of him and he better slide of we will be starting a new QB by week 4.

Tarlam!
03-24-2008, 12:27 PM
The fact is, Tedford QBs have crashed and burned in the NFL - without exception. The law of averages must be in A-Rod's favour!! Nothing lasts forever, not even the Tedford QB's suck streak!!! :)