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View Full Version : Chat w/KC Joyner 04/10/08



motife
04-11-2008, 08:05 PM
Chris(Cali): Hey KC, did you see Scouts Inc redo of the 05 draft? They had Merriman over Ware, in your eyes who's the better player?

KC Joyner: That's a tough call. I'd take the early Merriman over the early Ware but if you asked me where they are today, I'd take Ware over Merriman. Merriman has tailed off just a bit as a pass rusher while Ware seems to be getting better every year.


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Johnny (Shakopee, MN): Is Tarvaris Jackson as bad as the "experts" make him out to be ? If so, do you think it would be an upgrade to target Flacco or Brohm in Rounds 1/2 ?

KC Joyner: I wouldn't put Jackson in the "bad" category at all. After his first year I wasn't sure whether he was a long term answer but a number of performances he had last year (especially late in the year) showed he could be the real deal. I'd not draft a QB early if I were Minnesota.


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Majeed: KC, Is Tuna really going to draft Jake Long or does he just want to bring in all 4 guys to drive down the contract?

KC Joyner: I think it's more of the latter. Parcells wants to drive the value of the #1 pick with other teams while also trying to get a bargain if they end up having to take the pick.


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David Fairborn, OH: Remember when Robert Gallery was drafted in 2004? He was the "surest" pick in the draft. Why do people still insist there are "sure" picks? I don't see any this year, and the last ABSOLUTE sure pick I remember was Orlando Pace.

KC Joyner: If nothing else, guys like Gallery prove that even among the most elite players there is always the potential for downside.


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dan (jackson, Ms): what do you think about the Aaron Glenn signing with NO? What about the talks to trade for lito sheppard-is he worth it?

KC Joyner: Dan, Glenn had a typical Glenn year in 2007. He made some big plays (the int/TD return comes to mind) but he also gave up plenty of big plays. He's not as bad as David, though (that's a backhanded compliment if I've ever given one!).


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Greg, DC: What are the chances the cowboys will trade one of their #1 picks for a guy like Roy Williams?

KC Joyner: I can't see that happening. They have some decent young WRs and when that is added to Owens and Witten, they have more than enough firepower in their receiving corps. They need help at other positions, so expect them to invest there first.


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Johnny(Queens): KC, What do you think the Bengels are going to do about their WR problems? Will they resolve this issue with CJ? Or do they trade him? Do they give TJ the new big contract? And should they look to draft a WR to replace Chris Henry or possibly even CJ?

KC Joyner: Johnny, I think the Bengals will get things worked out with Johnson. He wants some attention and he's getting it. When it comes time to deciding between missing PT and the attention that comes along with it, or sitting things out, I think Johnson will decide to come back.


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Mikey(Lackawanna,NY): What have you heard on the Lito Sheppard situation in Philly? Do you think Lito is a top 10 CB when healthy?

KC Joyner: I keep hearing mixed things on this. Some think Philly is trying hard to move him, others think it's just feelers on their part. He's not a top 10 CB because his YPAs are always in the 7-8 range (and occasionally higher) but he's a top 30 CB.


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Marc (Atlanta): Just curious if you have any clue as to this answer or if there even is an answer. I've seen stats for leading tackler for individual years but can you tell me who the career tackles leader is? I've never been able to find it for the NFL and wonder why people dont mention it. Everyone knows the all-time sacks leader.

KC Joyner: Tackles aren't an official stat because the stat has a lot of subjectivity. This is reflected in the differences between tackle stats from one team versus another. Some trackers will end up giving their best player 150 tackles while another spotter might give a similar player 100 tackles. The variances are so high that it makes the value of the stat lower than it should be.


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Garett (Brighton, MI): Just curious as to your perspective on They way the Lions are going about things. Do you think it would be wise to try and trade roy williams on draft day for a pick or 2, considering the lions are "rebuilding".

KC Joyner: Garrett, I wish I could figure out why Detroit makes the moves they do. Trading Williams doesn't really make sense because they would still need a top WR. Moving Rogers for Bodden made sense (although Bodden is coming off of a subpar year) but otherwise most of what Detroit is doing still makes me scratch my head.


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Matt (Tulsa, OK): KC, please,back to Gallery, Is he an absolute bust? or will a second year with the same coaching staff help him become the player he 'should' have been? It seems he might have had it rough with the ancient blocking lessons of Art Shell

KC Joyner: Count my vote in the "he's a bust" category. He can't pass block to save his or his QBs life and his run blocking metrics have been mediocre every time I've run them.


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Lane (Kukuihaele, HI): Aloha KC. If Parcells keeps the pick why wouldn't he draft Darren McFadden? I know the draft experts have certain players at #1 but he's a Parcells type guy. They could get a quality offensive lineman in round 2.

KC Joyner: Parcells subscribes to the old Al Davis theory that you don't build championship teams around great RBs. I cover that very topic in a chapter in my upcoming book Blindsided. In a nutshell, building around an elite RB isn't necessary to win a title.


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Troy (Milwaukee): Is Ryan Grant and the rest of the committee really the answer in Green Bay or could they use more insurance or a change of pace back?

KC Joyner: Troy, they need new blockers more than they need new RBs. The Packers had defeated run blocks on about 25% of their overall run plays. 10% is a very good number and 20% is borderline acceptable. They were worse than that and that's why they need new O linemen.


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Paul (Omaha, NE): How far does Matt Ryan fall? #5 to KC, #8 to Baltimore or is there a chance he falls out of the top 10? Could he see a Brady Quinn like fall? Personally, I think he is a great player. I have no idea why the Dolphins soured on him, but I am seeing that a lot don't seem him as a franshise guy. What happens with him?

KC Joyner: I don't think he falls out of the top 10. I did tape study on him and he looks very much like a Matt Hasselbeck. He's so much better than Quinn that there is no way KC or Baltimore pass him up.


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Garett (Brighton, MI): Considering your response to my last question, what should the lions do once pick 15 comes along? thanks

KC Joyner: I can tell you what they shouldn't do: pick a WR. Although I do have to say that if they traded Williams, they would need another WR and that just makes me laugh given their draft history.


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Bryon(South Buffalo): Do you think the Falcons would be interested in trading for the Bills QB JP Losman? He is still young, has enough game expierence, and worked in Mike Mularkey's offense before! It makes sense? Maybe for a 3rd round pick? What do you think KC?

KC Joyner: Sounds like a great move to me but I wonder if Mularkey will want him. I've heard the Buffalo coaching staff wasn't exactly sold on some parts of Losman's personality and therefore have to ask if Mularkey was one of those guys. Talent-wise, Losman is a perfect fit but that question has to be answered before an Atl move can be said to be in his future.


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Matt Ryan(Boston): Im so glad experts chalk up my interceptions to lack of talent around me and forget how few legit secondaries the ACC had last year

KC Joyner: I guess my Hasselbeck comment was lost on this person. Hasselbeck forces a ton of passes into coverage (I said in one of my Scientific Football books that he should join Gunslingers Anonymous) and so does Ryan. Both make up for their risk taking with plenty of upside in the rest of their game.


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Scott (Reno): What were Chris Henry's metrics when he wasn't suspended? Some teams are desperate for WR help

KC Joyner: Scott, he had very good vertical numbers but I can't get over the fact that his biggest catch output in a season is 36. He's simply not a guy that a team can know they can count on for an entire season's worth of production.


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PT (Franklin, NC): If Al Davis has a philosophy of not needing an elite RB why do so many "experts" have the Raiders selecting Darren Mcfadden, especially since they already have Micheal Bush?

KC Joyner: It's not that Davis won't select an elite RB. He had Marcus Allen after all. It's just that RB isn't anywhere near the top of his priority list. I would be very surprised to see them take McFadden from that standpoint but if he's the best player left on the board, he could end up there.


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J (Milwaukee): The lions have to trade Roy Williams. That way they can open up a spot to draft a WR at 15!

KC Joyner: Very funny!


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Rick-Lowell, MA: Do you think the Pats should trade down, or take a real top end talent at 7? They have 4 pics in the first 3 rounds already and they have plenty of cap space. Is it time they buck the trend of trying to bring in quantity over quality? Don't get me wrong, they always seem to get plenty of quality, but this is the highest they've been in years and we haven't had a true prospect to be excited about in a while.

KC Joyner: With that many picks early on, I think NE goes ahead and stays put. They have a good draft balance of quantity and quality. I also don't think there will be a player available at #7 that some other team will pay a premium for, so the upside for trading could be limited.


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Vedhas (Spartanburg, SC): Did you see the South Park episode last night? It was making fun of Bill Bellicheck...I think you would enjoy it!

KC Joyner: I can't say that I did but I'm a big South Park fan so I'll be sure to check out the replay.


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Ben (Atlanta): If Jake Long and Glenn Dorsey are off the board, the Falcons HAVE to take Matt Ryan don't they? There is not another play at a position of need worthy of that pick in my opinion.

KC Joyner: I can't see another move making more sense. He'd solve one of their biggest question marks.


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Phil: How come everyone talks about how difficult it is to trade down out of a top pick and then in the same breath says the Patriots will automatically trade down?

KC Joyner: Good point, Phil. This isn't a year where there are enough elite players to drive teams to pay for the privilege of drafting early. I guess they think NE has some special draft mojo that will make teams trade with them.


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Matt, Raleigh: Mike Martz has to help Alex Smith's metrics right? Its not like they could get any worse...

KC Joyner: Matt, we'll find out the answer to this question pretty quickly. What I mean by this is that Martz is the kind of guy who decides fairly quickly if a QB if his kind of QB. If he doesn't think Smith can handle his system physically and/or mentally, Martz will dump him and find someone else. He won't waste time on a player he doesn't believe in.


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Lane (Kukuihaele, HI): Joe Flaaco or Brian Brohm should be around when Atlanta picks in round 2. They would cost less than Ryan. Mike Smith is a defensive guy so I'm sure he's looking to start building his defense first. I think he believes in defense wins championships theory.

KC Joyner: Good point, although I don't think Flaaco or Brohm are quite as good as Ryan. It also depends on who is making the draft day calls, Smith or the front office.


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Danny C (Manahawkin, NJ): Using draft picks to effectively trade Joe Staley for Randy Moss and the #7 overall pick in this years draft might qualify in the special mojo category.......stop hating.

KC Joyner: Not hating at all, Danny! I just don't think other teams are going to give NE enough draft day value to get them to want to move out of that pick. NE won't trade down for nothing is another way to say this, and that's a compliment!


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Bo (Honlulu, HI): Howzit KC, back to Al Davis and the Raiders. Say McFadden, Dorsey, and Gholston are available at pick 4, what would you do? What do you think Al would do?

KC Joyner: I would be shocked if they didn't Gholston in that case. They need D line help and he could be an immediate impact player.


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Dee (Greenville, NC): Taking advantage of the Raiders stupidity is does not give you special mojo. Getting Moss for a 4th rounder is like the Lakers getting Gasol for Kwame Brown.....stupidity.

KC Joyner: Dee makes a non-Philip Rivers related comment!


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Ruben (Highland, Ca): Do you think a Matt Birk trade for Alex Barron of the Rams makes sense for both teams? Rams can then draft Jake Long for RT? That could make for an outstanding line.

KC Joyner: An aging center on the backside of his career for an underachieving young tackle - it would hurt both teams so I guess that would make sense at some level. Don't get me wrong, Birk is a good player but he'd be a stop-gap for Stl at best.


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Carol (Largo, FL): Hello KC--most of the mock drafts I have seen have the Bucs taking a WR in the 1st round. There seems to be questions about all of the top guys and the position itself has been notorious for busts. This draft is loaded with tremendously talented CB's and DE's, so why wouldn't the Bucs take the best player available and then perhaps get Hawkins, Hardy, or Jordy Nelson in a later round? Thank you

KC Joyner: The Bucs do need WR help but I was frankly surprised they didn't do more in that area in free agency. Gruden doesn't work well with youngsters and it is hard for a rookie WR to make an impact in any event. Young defensive players can make impacts in the Tampa two scheme because it is so easy to learn. I'd be with you on the taking a defensive player first because of that.


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Pete C (Newark DE): KC, what's the story with the Dolphins looking to make deals with the top few prospects to drive the value of the pick down a bit, is that a trend we are going to see happen more and more?

KC Joyner: I think this type of thing will keep happening until the league implements a rookie salary cap. Teams want to do all they can to reward performance and not potential but the upper end of the draft is all about rewarding potential.


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Eric (Colorado Springs CO): The Raiders were force to get rid of Moss and everyone knew it. That was like the Pac Man Jones sitituation with the Titans. Talent wise he is worth a 1st round pick but the Titans will be lucky to get a 5th round for him.

KC Joyner: Good counterpoint there. Oakland made the best of what Moss had made into a bad situation.


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Big Steve (Atl): with Jake Long an OT 'tweener, how serious does Gholston get consideration? Parcells has to be bumming there is no clear-cut #1? WOLB in the 3-4 is the money position (sacks), it seems that Gholston would be the "shocker" pick that would wind-up being a solid #1 down the road...thoughts?...

KC Joyner: An interesting question. Parcells is big on pass rushers and Gholston certainly can do that. Miami also has a pretty good O line overall. Having said that, they do need help at tackle and that could possibly be a pressing need. Long goes before Gholston.


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Jordan (Ohio): I've heard from a certain hair style named Mel Kiper Jr. that Cincinnati would have a hard time passing up Rashard Mendenhall at #9. I dont agree with this regarding our recent history drafting running backs. i say stick to defense. You?

KC Joyner: The issue with the Bengals and defense hasn't been a lack of collecting talent, but rather keeping those players healthy. From a pure talent perspective, they aren't in bad shape on D, so I could see where Mel is coming from on this one.


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SprungOnSports (Long Island): What's your take on the CB Rodgers-Cromartie and should he be taken over proven guys like Talib and Jenkins just because of a superior combine? Shouldn't superior competition outweigh that?

KC Joyner: Couldn't agree with you more. Tape results should outweigh combine results by a big margin.


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dan, maine: I think the bengals also have a problem with keeping their players out of jail......that one was too easy. You did that one on purpose.

KC Joyner: I was actually thinking about their LB corps last year, but you do make a good (and funny) point!


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Ed (Fond du Lac, WI): Come on KC, question on Green Bay corner backs. How much longer do Woodson and Harris have to be effective, and who in the draft looks to be in their mold as a bump and run specialist?

KC Joyner: Ed, I'll be doing a CB metric article here in the next couple of weeks, so I'll hit on Woodson/Harris then. I will say that I think they need to worry a lot more about the nickel CB position right now as opposed to replacing starters long-term.


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Brian (San Francisco): It wasn't all combine for DRC. He played very well at the Senior Bowl against some of the top competition in the draft.

KC Joyner: A counter point for DRC! Well, hate to cut it short but I do have to hit the road. Before I go, I do want to let everyone know that Scientific Football 2008 and Blindsided, Why The Left Tackle Is Overrated and Other Contrarian Football Thoughts, are both available for pre-sale via www.thefootballscientist.com. Hope to see you all next week!

Bretsky
04-11-2008, 08:13 PM
Troy (Milwaukee): Is Ryan Grant and the rest of the committee really the answer in Green Bay or could they use more insurance or a change of pace back?

KC Joyner: Troy, they need new blockers more than they need new RBs. The Packers had defeated run blocks on about 25% of their overall run plays. 10% is a very good number and 20% is borderline acceptable. They were worse than that and that's why they need new O linemen.

red
04-11-2008, 10:20 PM
HA finally some agreement that out interior o-line sucks

and he has some numbers to prove it

Packnut
04-12-2008, 08:33 AM
No surprise to those who pay attention to the game. Our interior line is our achilles heal.......... :shock:

RashanGary
04-12-2008, 10:07 AM
To packnut (who said the WR's would be the downfall of Ted last year)



Imagine

Imagine no doom and gloom
I wonder if you caaann...
No need for bitching or whining
A vaginaless man

Imagine all the people
Sharing a doomless world
you-hooo ooooo

You may say I'm a dreamer
But I'm not the only one
I enjoyed sticking 13-3 in your face
And I'll enjoy this next one as well

red
04-12-2008, 10:26 AM
yup, you're right jh

this team went 13-3 last year, we're obviously a perfect team with no need to improve or critique

imagine what might have happened last year with randy moss and a decent interior line

falco
04-12-2008, 12:23 PM
To packnut (who said the WR's would be the downfall of Ted last year)



Imagine

Imagine no doom and gloom
I wonder if you caaann...
No need for bitching or whining
A vaginaless man

Imagine all the people
Sharing a doomless world
you-hooo ooooo

You may say I'm a dreamer
But I'm not the only one
I enjoyed sticking 13-3 in your face
And I'll enjoy this next one as well

wow JH nothing personal but thats the gayest shit i've ever read, you gotta do better than that

Joemailman
04-12-2008, 12:43 PM
Almost makes me miss Ted Is Trapped In The Closet. Almost.

motife
04-12-2008, 01:10 PM
tank showed some of the "mad genius" in his poems. I enjoyed them.

Lurker64
04-12-2008, 01:46 PM
So, we had defeated run blocks 25% of plays. I would be fascinated to see a game by game breakdown on that one. Since there's different conclusions to draw depending on whether that's: 1) Consistent mediocrity, 2) Several Abyssmal games and mostly average games, or 3) A gawdawful start followed by some steady improvement.

It would also be interesting to figure out what the failure rate was with certain personnel combinations. The people who know these things likely won't tell me, though.

Joemailman
04-12-2008, 01:53 PM
The running game was wildly inconsistent. Better in the second half of the season, but still too many plays where the running back had no chance. Colledge is the key, I think. They were pretty good running the ball with Grant in the lineup if Colledge played well.

motife
04-12-2008, 02:00 PM
what was concerning even when the running game was good, it "seemed" as if a lot of the running game were the big runs by Grant up the middle, almost like draw plays, and somewhat played off the spread offense.

If the Packers HAD to run the ball, they'd be up shit creek. That showed in the bad weather games.

motife
04-12-2008, 02:06 PM
here's a summary of the Packer's run game last year :

At midseason, the Packers ranked last in yards (72.1) and 30th in yards per rush (3.30). Thanks to Ryan Grant, they finished 21st (99.8) and 12th (4.12). Through six games, the revolving running back corps of DeShawn Wynn, Brandon Jackson and Vernand Morency was averaging 65.67 and 3.26. That all changed when Grant replaced an injured Wynn five plays into the Week 7 game in Denver. Over the last 12 games, the Packers averaged 122.17 and 4.64. Grant rushed for 929 yards in the final nine regular-season games, second in the NFL behind San Diego's LaDainian Tomlinson (947). In all, Grant carried 228 times for 1,186 yards (5.2) and 11 TDs. He had 16 gains of 20 yards or more, 15 rushing. By comparison, Ahman Green had four in '06 and only one in '05. Green's high was 21 in '03. At midyear, the Packers had rushed merely 35.3% of the time. By the end, their rush rate was up to 39.4%, well below the NFL average of 43.5% and 25th in the league. Grant's calling card was finding the cutback lane on outside zone plays. His breakaway burst piled up yardage and served to hide some of the down-to-down deficiencies. There were 96 1/2 "bad" runs charged to the offensive line, 18 more than last season and the most in any season this decade. According to STATS LLC, the Packers were last in the NFL in conversion rate on third- and fourth-and-1 (35.7%). It reflected an inability to get the tough yard in crunch time and underscored one of the major failings of the zone scheme. Korey Hall and former Steeler John Kuhn split time at fullback and were OK. Blocking by wide receivers was adequate, at best.

motife
04-12-2008, 02:12 PM
and the O-Line :

Allen Barbre: Only had a few chances to play but still gave up a whopping 7 1/2 "bad" runs and 1 1/2 "pressures."

Chad Clifton: Cut his "bad" runs from 12 to 10 1/2 and had just two false-start penalties, a major improvement.

Daryn Colledge: Played six really poor games.

Junius Coston: . Allowed 16 1/2 "bad" runs and "pressures," far too many for a part-time starter.

Tony Moll: started three games (all victories) back at RG. Gave up 5 1/2 "pressures" and 5 "bad" runs.

Jason Spitz: Reduced "bad" runs from 17 1/2 to 12 1/2 and "pressures" from 19 1/2 to 12. Started nine times at RG, three at C and two at LG.

Mark Tauscher: Allowed more "pressures" (29 1/2, including team-high 3 1/2 sacks) than any other lineman but also the fewest "bad" runs (7 1/2).

Scott Wells: . Had the fewest "pressures" (8) among linemen but also the most "bad" runs (19 1/2). The Packers value Wells much more than some opposing scouts.

red
04-12-2008, 02:51 PM
nice find mot

so what was a "bad run"? no gain?

RashanGary
04-12-2008, 02:58 PM
Nice stuff, Motife.

Looks like Spitz, Cliffy and Tausch are the most solid.
Then Wells
Then Colledge, Coston and Barbre tied for last. I think this is the last shot for DC.

motife
04-12-2008, 03:05 PM
so what was a "bad run"? no gain?

I would think so Red. Probably anything less than 3 yards could be considered "bad" unless it was a short yardage play. I don't know the exact definition.

woodbuck27
04-12-2008, 03:16 PM
yup, you're right jh

this team went 13-3 last year, we're obviously a perfect team with no need to improve or critique

imagine what might have happened last year with randy moss and a decent interior line

Hear hear, sorta. :D

The fact Randy Moss in Green Bay would have given us a lot is always challenged here and that fact slips by me.The OL was bad at the beginning of the season and did improve for pass protection mostly in my view.

I'll add this as well.

How many games did it take for Ryan Grant to get up to speed. We all saw that the RB situation looked weak after the Pre-season schedule and desperation brought us Ryan Grant. That was left too long.

How many people here really believed in Morency and Rookies '' RB by committee '' prior to the season opening ?

PACKERS FOREVER!

Joemailman
04-12-2008, 05:53 PM
Not sure what you meant by left too long. If you meant it took too long to get Grant in the lineup, I think that was a matter of him not knowing the offense. A running back who doesn't know his blitz pickups can get your QB killed. I thought Morency/Jackson would work, but of course the injury to Morency killed that idea. Really, the RB by committee was a revolving door due to injuries, until Grant was inserted in the starting lineup.