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View Full Version : Draft Rounds of Starting NFL QB's and Analysis



Carolina_Packer
04-15-2008, 10:33 AM
Depth Charts according to Yahoo Sports

AFC East
Buffalo-Trent Edwards, 3rd
Miami-Josh McCown, 3rd
New England-Tom Brady, 6th
New York-Chad Pennington, 1st

Avg. Round: 3.25

AFC North
Baltimore-Steve McNair, 1st
Cincinnati-Carson Palmer, 1st
Cleveland-Derek Anderson, 6th
Pittsburgh-Ben Roethlisberger, 1st

Avg. Round: 2.25

AFC South
Houston-Matt Schaub, 3rd
Indianapolis-Peyton Manning, 1st
Jacksonville-David Garrard, 4th
Tennesee-Vince Young, 1st

Avg. Round: 2.25

AFC West
Denver-Jay Cutler, 1st
Kansas City-Brodie Croyle, 3rd
Oakland-JaMarcus Russell, 1st
San Diego-Philip Rivers, 1st

Avg. Round: 1.5

Average AFC Draft Round Per Team (Per Starting QB): 2.3
No Undrafted Free Agents Starting

NFC East
Dallas-Tony Romo, Undrafted Free Agent
New York-Eli Manning, 1st
Philadelphia-Donovan McNabb, 1st
Washington-Jason Campbell, 1st

Avg. Round: 2.75

NFC North
Chicago-Rex Grossman, 1st
Detroit-Jon Kitna, Undrafted Free Agent
Green Bay-Aaron Rodgers, 1st
Minnesota-Tarvaris Jackson, 2nd

Avg. Round: 3

NFC South
Atlanta-Chris Redman, 3rd
Carolina-Jake Delhomme, Undrafted Free Agent
New Orleans-Drew Brees, 2nd
Tampa Bay-Jeff Garcia, Undrafted Free Agent

Avg. Round: 5.25

NFC West
Arizona-Matt Leinart, 1st
San Francisco-Alex Smith, 1st
Seattle-Matt Hasselbeck, 6th
St. Louis-Marc Bulger, 6th

Avg. Round: 3.5

Average NFC Draft Round Per Team (Per Starting QB): 3.6
4 Undrafted QB's Starting

Entire NFL Avg. Round Per Team (Per Starting QB): 2.98

NOTE: Undrafted Free Agents were counted as an 8th rounder, since there are 7 rounds in the current NFL Draft.

Number of 1st Rounders=16 50%
Number of 2nd Rounders=2 6%
Number of 3rd Rounder=5 15%
Number of 4th Rounders=1 3%
Number of 5th Rounders=0
Number of 6th Rounders=4 12%
Number of 7th Rounders=0
Number of Undrafted Free Agents=4 12%

Avg. NFL Starting QB Round of Non-1st Rounders=4.9 (almost a 5th round average!!)

So on average, half the league has a 1st rounder and half the league has a 5th rounder starting at QB.

Looks like the trend (again, on average) is to either draft a QB high (56% taken in rounds 1 and 2) or find a diamond in the rough (25% taken round 6 or later). Rounds 3-5 make up 18% of the current starting QB's.

That's just overall draft pick numbers and percentages. You could also take the last three years of each team and figure the winning percentage by the round of each starting QB to figure how much it matters which round a starting QB was chosen. Overall, it still favors the high draft picks, but 25% for later round picks is pretty interesting.

I don't think the Packers will pick a high draft choice at QB, but I could see them going 3rd round or even developmental pick at 6th round or undrafted, since the percentages are either with the higher rounds or 6th round/undrafted.