NEW TRADE CHART

[red]

pft.com is reporting that teams are circulation a new pick value trade chart

looks like things have finally changed

heres the new chart

http://www.profootballtalk.com/2008/04/15/new-draft-trade-chart/

it now only takes a 4th round pick to move up from the #2 to the #1 spot. it use to take almost a second rounder

[Zool]

5 1,675
6 1,635
7 1,570

anyone else find that odd?

[sheepshead]

as I have said, and this is just a step, the first round is a mine field that can literally decimate a team. This should be dumbed down even further AND a rookie cap needs to be put in place.

[MadScientist]

There's definitely some first round psychology going on in this chart, the difference between picks 32 an 33 is the same as between 1 & 2. None of the other rounds have any extra jump at all.

Also I know comp picks can't be traded, but shouldn't their presence change the value of the picks that come after them?

[Spaulding]

Interesting on the values. Looks like if did trade our 30th overall pick and the 2nd rounder from Cleveland (#54) which would total 720+360 = 1080 that we'd might be able to jump to #17 or #18.

Based on Kiper's last mock this might give us our pick of the first CB taken. A lot of if's (add the buts along with candy and nuts) but could happen. If TT valued one of the top flight corners (McKelvin, Jenkins, etc.) I could almost see it happening if either the Vikes (not likely given the division rivalry) or Titans were willing to trade down.

Would love to see Jenkins in Green and Gold though.

[Gunakor]

Our first and our third would get us up to #24 or #25. That would be more ideal if TT is looking at the lesser of the first round corners. It would get us ahead of Dallas, who seem just as interested in a cornerback in the first round. It would also make sure we still have 3 of the top 60 picks, so we have a better chance at a talented TE or depth on the offensive line.

[HarveyWallbangers]

a rookie cap needs to be put in place.

I'm guessing that will come with the next CBA.

[Bretsky]

Our first and our third would get us up to #24 or #25. That would be more ideal if TT is looking at the lesser of the first round corners. It would get us ahead of Dallas, who seem just as interested in a cornerback in the first round. It would also make sure we still have 3 of the top 60 picks, so we have a better chance at a talented TE or depth on the offensive line.


It would not surprise me at all if Dallas goes for a RB like Felix Jones or Stewart if either are still there either. I'd be surprised if TT trades up; with this draft it probably makes more sense to move back 10 spots. A solid CB will still be there and he could add another pick that could be a quality TE, OG, S, or another CB...etc

[Gunakor]

Our first and our third would get us up to #24 or #25. That would be more ideal if TT is looking at the lesser of the first round corners. It would get us ahead of Dallas, who seem just as interested in a cornerback in the first round. It would also make sure we still have 3 of the top 60 picks, so we have a better chance at a talented TE or depth on the offensive line.


It would not surprise me at all if Dallas goes for a RB like Felix Jones or Stewart if either are still there either. I'd be surprised if TT trades up; with this draft it probably makes more sense to move back 10 spots. A solid CB will still be there and he could add another pick that could be a quality TE, OG, S, or another CB...etc


You are right. I guess I have grown attached to Cason. The more I see the more I like how he fits our defense. He's physical, he's good in press coverage, and he is rumored to be very much desired by the Dallas Cowboys. This modest move would put us ahead of them while preserving both second round picks, so it would be a good move if we were targeting him specifically. But you are absolutely right, should TT trade down there will likely still be a Brandon Flowers and a Justin King on the board at #40 or so.

[Bretsky]

Our first and our third would get us up to #24 or #25. That would be more ideal if TT is looking at the lesser of the first round corners. It would get us ahead of Dallas, who seem just as interested in a cornerback in the first round. It would also make sure we still have 3 of the top 60 picks, so we have a better chance at a talented TE or depth on the offensive line.


It would not surprise me at all if Dallas goes for a RB like Felix Jones or Stewart if either are still there either. I'd be surprised if TT trades up; with this draft it probably makes more sense to move back 10 spots. A solid CB will still be there and he could add another pick that could be a quality TE, OG, S, or another CB...etc


You are right. I guess I have grown attached to Cason. The more I see the more I like how he fits our defense. He's physical, he's good in press coverage, and he is rumored to be very much desired by the Dallas Cowboys. This modest move would put us ahead of them while preserving both second round picks, so it would be a good move if we were targeting him specifically. But you are absolutely right, should TT trade down there will likely still be a Brandon Flowers and a Justin King on the board at #40 or so.


I think it's about 50/50 that Cason is there when we pick

[red]

ok hows this one for a twist

we trade our 1st and our third to move up ahead of the cowboys and draft maybe one of the top 3 cb's if they are still there

TT then trades our 30th pick in the second, for a middle 3rd round and a middle 4th round pick

the trade down sounds like something might pull off, even without the trade up

or if we trade the pick we got from the browns we could get a high 3rd and 4th round picks

that would give us 7 picks in the first 4 rounds

we would have something like

30
59
66
89
108
128
and the comp pick

[Bretsky]

ok hows this one for a twist

we trade our 1st and our third to move up ahead of the cowboys and draft maybe one of the top 3 cb's if they are still there

TT then trades our 30th pick in the second, for a middle 3rd round and a middle 4th round pick

the trade down sounds like something might pull off, even without the trade up

or if we trade the pick we got from the browns we could get a high 3rd and 4th round picks

that would give us 7 picks in the first 4 rounds

we would have something like

30
59
66
89
108
128
and the comp pick


I can see TT trading down with one of the two second round picks; if he doesn't move down much he could still get one of the top TE's in the draft and with the extra pick he could nab a QB or OG. Love that idea.

Not too fond of trading up in round one when there will be very good CB's to be had in through the middle of round two.

I'd much rather see him trade down in round two if a player like Stewart falls..........which is probably the only way a team might be willing to trade up.

Otherwise, I hope he takes the BPA that is not an offensive tackle or QB with the round one pick

[woodbuck27]

pft.com is reporting that teams are circulation a new pick value trade chart

looks like things have finally changed

heres the new chart

http://www.profootballtalk.com/2008/04/15/new-draft-trade-chart/

it now only takes a 4th round pick to move up from the #2 to the #1 spot. it use to take almost a second rounder

Based on that chart TT can package our #30 and #56 and move up to #18 or #30 and #60 and move up to #19. That way we get a solid player.

ie Like any of these fella's?

17. Mike Jenkins CB South Florida :D

18. Jeff Otah OT Pittsburgh

19. Kenny Phillips S Miami (FL) :D

20. Devin Thomas WR Michigan St.
21. Gosder Cherilus OT Boston College
22. Limas Sweed WR Texas
23. Chris Williams OT Vanderbilt
24. DeSean Jackson WR California

25. Brian Brohm QB Louisville
26. Felix Jones RB Arkansas
27. Reggie Smith S Oklahoma :D

Packers Forever!

[Guiness]

a rookie cap needs to be put in place.

I'm guessing that will come with the next CBA.

IF there is a next CBA :!:

[sepporepi]

I do not believe any team uses this chart.
The drop from 5 to 6 is 40, but from 6 to 7 to 8 to 9 to 10 it is 65. From
10 to 11 to 12 it is 55. Then it is 45, but from 15 to 16 it is 30 and 40 afterwards.
The drop from 17 to 18 to 19 to 20 is 30 each time, but from 20 to 21 it is 35.

It makes no sense to me. Why should be the dropoff from 20 to 21 be bigger than from 19 to 20? I can not believe that the contracts make an impact in that area. I understand the devaluation (is this a word :lol: ?) of the top picks due to the contracts, but I believe the drop-off shoudl still be monotonic.


The GMs aren't idiots (ok, Millen is :lol: ), but maby the pft guys are.

[woodbuck27]

I do not believe any team uses this chart.
The drop from 5 to 6 is 40, but from 6 to 7 to 8 to 9 to 10 it is 65. From
10 to 11 to 12 it is 55. Then it is 45, but from 15 to 16 it is 30 and 40 afterwards.
The drop from 17 to 18 to 19 to 20 is 30 each time, but from 20 to 21 it is 35.

It makes no sense to me. Why should be the dropoff from 20 to 21 be bigger than from 19 to 20? I can not believe that the contracts make an impact in that area. I understand the devaluation (is this a word :lol: ?) of the top picks due to the contracts, but I believe the drop-off shoudl still be monotonic.


The GMs aren't idiots (ok, Millen is :lol: ), but maby the pft guys are.

Yes. Is this chart NFL approved?

[Guiness]

first of seen of this, and it is posted by Florio...so I doubt very much it's official! Then again, was the old chart 'official', or just generaly accepted?

Obviously there's a mistake from 5 to 6.

One interesting thing though, moving from, say, #5 to #1 (a la Giants) should only cost your 3rd and 4th...not the rest of your draft, and next year's first! If this chart was used, you might see more movement at the top.

[sepporepi]

Yes. Is this chart NFL approved?

This isn't something the NFL needs or will approve. Obviously it is up the any team/GM how to value the picks. It just makes deals easier if two teams have some common ground for the negotiation. I guess most teams adjust their chart to the specific draft/ the players still available.

TT certainly does, he often traded down and came up short due to the (old) chart.

[red]

I do not believe any team uses this chart.
The drop from 5 to 6 is 40, but from 6 to 7 to 8 to 9 to 10 it is 65. From
10 to 11 to 12 it is 55. Then it is 45, but from 15 to 16 it is 30 and 40 afterwards.
The drop from 17 to 18 to 19 to 20 is 30 each time, but from 20 to 21 it is 35.

It makes no sense to me. Why should be the dropoff from 20 to 21 be bigger than from 19 to 20? I can not believe that the contracts make an impact in that area. I understand the devaluation (is this a word :lol: ?) of the top picks due to the contracts, but I believe the drop-off shoudl still be monotonic.


The GMs aren't idiots (ok, Millen is :lol: ), but maby the pft guys are.

Yes. Is this chart NFL approved?

the nfl didn't approve the last one either

i think jimmy johnson came up with the other one

its just a guide for teams to use if they all agree with it. otherwise who the hell knows what each pick is worth?

as for the difference in draft values around #5. i'm guessing that those spots are the premium spots that all teams would want. you get a good player, and i think the contracts right around that spot always end up just about the same

[cheesner]

I do not believe any team uses this chart.
The drop from 5 to 6 is 40, but from 6 to 7 to 8 to 9 to 10 it is 65. From
10 to 11 to 12 it is 55. Then it is 45, but from 15 to 16 it is 30 and 40 afterwards.
The drop from 17 to 18 to 19 to 20 is 30 each time, but from 20 to 21 it is 35.

It makes no sense to me. Why should be the dropoff from 20 to 21 be bigger than from 19 to 20? I can not believe that the contracts make an impact in that area. I understand the devaluation (is this a word :lol: ?) of the top picks due to the contracts, but I believe the drop-off shoudl still be monotonic.


The GMs aren't idiots (ok, Millen is :lol: ), but maby the pft guys are.
You are probably right that no team actually uses a chart.

The chart should vary from team to team depending on their evaluations. Right now, some teams have a higher value on pick 3-5 than No. 1 overall. The top end of the draft has about 5 players who are all about the same. If you draft at 5 you get a guy who is as good as No. 1, for far less money. Teams are actually valuing those picks more than the No. 1. Like a GM said last year when questioned if he was interested in getting the No. 1 overall pick. He stated something like 'it depends on what else the Raiders toss in'.

These charts are nonsense and are only loosly considered by GMs. What do you do if TTs No. 5 overall player is available at 25? Is he now only worth the #25 value on the chart? Hell no. TT would toss in a 2nd to move and get someone he regards that highly.

[The Leaper]

These charts are nonsense and are only loosly considered by GMs. What do you do if TTs No. 5 overall player is available at 25? Is he now only worth the #25 value on the chart? Hell no. TT would toss in a 2nd to move and get someone he regards that highly.

I agree with that.

I think the charts a GM would create and go by reflect prospect values...not pick values. Prospect values change from year to year, and will have different weights at different points of the draft, as you suggest.

[Gunakor]

pft.com is reporting that teams are circulation a new pick value trade chart

looks like things have finally changed

heres the new chart

http://www.profootballtalk.com/2008/04/15/new-draft-trade-chart/

it now only takes a 4th round pick to move up from the #2 to the #1 spot. it use to take almost a second rounder

Based on that chart TT can package our #30 and #56 and move up to #18 or #30 and #60 and move up to #19. That way we get a solid player.

ie Like any of these fella's?

17. Mike Jenkins CB South Florida :D

18. Jeff Otah OT Pittsburgh

19. Kenny Phillips S Miami (FL) :D

20. Devin Thomas WR Michigan St.
21. Gosder Cherilus OT Boston College
22. Limas Sweed WR Texas
23. Chris Williams OT Vanderbilt
24. DeSean Jackson WR California

25. Brian Brohm QB Louisville
26. Felix Jones RB Arkansas
27. Reggie Smith S Oklahoma :D

Packers Forever!


I will be the first to throw a tomato at TT if he drafts a QB or a RB in the first round. Absolutely no reason for that. The only QB I would say is first round quality is Matt Ryan, and he'll be long gone by the pick we'd get even by trading #30 and #56 together. Brohm and Henne might go in the first, but aren't first round QB's IMO. Regardless of that, they could get a good player at QB in the 4th or 5th rounds to be the backup.

Harvey had a really good idea when he suggested someone like Josh Johnson in the 4th and Kyle Wright in the 7th to be our #3. Josh Johnson could be a quite capable backup IMO. To tell the truth, I don't know if he's the best option as a #2 QB right away this season, but given our coaching staff's incredible ability working with QB's, I think he could develop into a very fine NFL QB. Kyle Wright doesn't impress me, but then again neither does Craig Nall. At least Wright is young enough to improve, whereas Nall is pretty much a lost cause.

[woodbuck27]

A lot of very interesting thoughts in this thread.

Lots of interesting ideas. It seems to me a consensus of opinion says NO to a QB or Offensive tackle in rounds one or two. If a top RB falls to us? Use him "as bait" to grap picks in lower rounds.

We seem to like a defensive player with our #30; then again, trade that #30 for another pick, and grap a CB with value in the second.

Some fans here like a TE in the second round (or early ie third round) as well.

It's all very interesting. :D

PACKERS FOREVER!