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motife
04-23-2008, 08:32 PM
Wayne worthy of more respect, accolades
By KC Joyner
ESPN Insider
(Archive)
Updated: April 23, 2008
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This is the first in a series of articles that will use performance metrics to delve into areas of player and team performance that I haven't covered either previously or recently. In each article, I will review some metric in granular detail and list the 10 best and 10 worst in that metric from the 2007 season.

Glossary of terms

This article's topic is vertical pass receivers. Many people think of vertical passing as being comprised exclusively of deep and bomb passes (20-plus yards), but medium passes (11-19 yards) typically account for about 20 percent of pass attempts in a season. As such, this analysis will grade receivers on their combined medium/deep/bomb pass metrics. I set the qualifying mark at 32 or more vertical pass attempts for the season (i.e., at least two attempts per game). These totals do include "pass in the air" penalty attempts and yards (i.e., pass interference, defensive holding, illegal contact, etc.).

Now that we have the preliminaries out of the way, here are the top 10 vertical pass receivers of 2007 on a yards-per-attempt basis:

Player Team Vertical Att Vertical Yds Vertical YPA
Greg Jennings Green Bay 35 547 15.6
Reggie Wayne Indianapolis 70 1,031 14.7
Jerricho Cotchery N.Y. Jets 44 640 14.5
Andre Johnson Houston 39 538 13.8
Marques Colston New Orleans 56 738 13.2
Roydell Williams Tennessee 35 460 13.1
Joey Galloway Tampa Bay 48 629 13.1
Terrell Owens Dallas 76 969 12.8
Santonio Holmes Pittsburgh 58 718 12.4
Roddy White Atlanta 46 564 12.3

Reggie Wayne has been one of the best wideouts in pro football for many years now, but he still doesn't get the publicity he should because he lines up next to Marvin Harrison. To put his numbers in better perspective, consider that Wayne's 1,031 vertical yards would have ranked 21st in total receiving yards. He also had one more vertical yard than Plaxico Burress had overall receiving yards (1,030). An argument definitely could be made that Wayne is the best pass-catcher in the NFL.

Many of the other names on this list are ones that could be expected, but there are three players whose showings have to be considered surprises. The first is Greg Jennings. Jennings had some of the worst overall metrics in the league in 2006, so his best-in-the-league vertical numbers certainly would qualify him for the most improved player of the year honor if such an award were given.

Jerricho Cotchery is another player who isn't given the credit he deserves because he plays with a bigger-name receiver, Laveranues Coles. This past season was the second year in a row that Cotchery outplayed Coles in many metric areas, so it might take a move from the Empire State for Cotchery to get his due.

The third name that caught my attention was Roddy White. That he could put up these kinds of numbers with Joey Harrington, Chris Redman and Byron Leftwich pitching the ball to him is simply amazing. Most pundits overlooked Falcons players because of the Michael Vick/Bobby Petrino issues last year, but if White repeats his 2007 totals, he'll be an underdog Pro Bowl candidate.

Now that we have covered the best of the best, it's time to take a look at the worst. Here are the bottom 10 vertical pass receivers of 2007:

Player Team Vertical Att Vertical Yds Vertical YPA
T.J. Houshmandzadeh Cincinnati 59 517 8.8
Brandon Marshall Denver 66 562 8.5
Ernest Wilford Jacksonville 34 288 8.5
Mark Clayton Baltimore 35 291 8.3
Plaxico Burress N.Y. Giants 79 625 7.9
Bryant Johnson Arizona 44 348 7.9
Hines Ward Pittsburgh 42 316 7.5
Marty Booker Miami 45 300 6.7
Darrell Jackson San Francisco 50 278 5.6
Drew Bennett St. Louis 36 173 4.8

Burress is the biggest name on this list, but given that he played the majority of this past season with injuries that would have put most players in the hospital, he gets a pass from any criticism on this front.

Brandon Marshall did have some impressive outings in his sophomore campaign, and Denver certainly plans to make him its vertical threat. However, taken as a whole, his 2007 vertical pass numbers were quite poor. In fact, his 7.6 short-pass yards per attempt was nearly as good as his vertical YPA. The Broncos might want to stick with Brandon Stokley as their down-the-field player and have Marshall fill the old Rod Smith role if these numbers are indicative of his future performance.

Darrell Jackson's 5.6 YPA here shows why San Francisco wasn't very high on bringing him back, but Bryant Johnson's 7.9 YPA doesn't make it clear why the 49ers brought him in. The 49ers have Arnaz Battle to fill the possession receiver role and signed Isaac Bruce to be the intermediate route runner, so Johnson's vertical abilities are going to be the true test of his value for that team. Unless he shows dramatic improvement over last season, offensive coordinator Mike Martz might still be looking for a vertical receiver in 2009.

KC Joyner, aka the Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. His 2008 releases, Scientific Football 2008 and "Blindsided: Why The Left Tackle is Overrated and Other Contrarian Football Thoughts," are available for preorder. For more, check out KC's Web site, www.thefootballscientist.com.

Guiness
04-24-2008, 03:33 AM
Saying this makes a case for RW to be the best receiver in the league is quite a reach! What it actually tells me is that he's pretty one dimensional. 70 passes for 1000yds on deep routes? Not much for short/crossing routes to keep the defense honest?

He made the most of his opportunity of being the #1 option this past year, but I'll wait and see what happens when he sees a safety over the top all the time this coming season.

Zool
04-24-2008, 08:02 AM
Well he finished the season with 104 catches for 1510 yards. I guess I would say 500 other yards shows he can go on short routes.

The analysis is based off medium/long/bomb passes. Medium are 10-15yards usually. So in the short category, he had 34 catches for 479 yards. Thats 2+ per game.

I don't get into the BS of "best" blah blah anything in sports. Its lame. Reggie Wayne is a stud and would start on 32 of 32 NFL teams.

The Leaper
04-24-2008, 08:09 AM
He made the most of his opportunity of being the #1 option this past year, but I'll wait and see what happens when he sees a safety over the top all the time this coming season.

He saw a safety over the top for most of last season, so I'm not sure what your point is.

Reggie Wayne is one of the 10 best WRs in the NFL. I will agree that claiming he is the best may be a bit of a stretch, but it isn't crazy.

Guiness
04-24-2008, 09:20 AM
Well he finished the season with 104 catches for 1510 yards. I guess I would say 500 other yards shows he can go on short routes.

The analysis is based off medium/long/bomb passes. Medium are 10-15yards usually. So in the short category, he had 34 catches for 479 yards. Thats 2+ per game.

I don't get into the BS of "best" blah blah anything in sports. Its lame. Reggie Wayne is a stud and would start on 32 of 32 NFL teams.

Looked at it more closely and see what you're talking about...he was counting anything over 10yds. So this is pretty much a YPC chart, with the dump off passes removed.

On first read I thought this only counted long (20+) routes.

The Leaper
04-24-2008, 09:23 AM
This is just evidence of how Peyton Manning better shatter Favre's records...if he doesn't, he's clearly not as good of a QB considering the superior talent at WR he has to work with.