Mel Kiper/KC Joyner Chats :04/24/08

[motife]

Rick-Lowell, MA: Why do I keep hearing that Chris Long may fall out of the top 5? I think Long and Dorsey are the 2 guaranteed not to fall past 5. Am I wrong?

Mel Kiper: I don't think Long. I think Long goes two to St. Louis or 5 to KC. He would be an interest as a 3-4 OLB standpoint. He could play on his feet.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Alex (Tulsa, Oklahoma): Since Miami has primarily addressed their offensive line issue by signing Jake Long as the number 1 pick in the draft, do you see them drafting a QB in the second round or are their other positions they should attend to?

Mel Kiper: You keep hearing that Chad Henne is going to get some consideration at 32. But to me you don't bring in competition if you believe in the young QB in John Beck. We'll know what they think about Beck when they draft 32nd.

Mel Kiper: This team has tons of needs. CB, TE, WR, OG.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bret - Ionia,MI: Everything I've read has the Lions taking RB Mendenhall. I'm worried Chicago might take him first. I think it's a good move for Detroit. What do you think?

Mel Kiper: I don't think Chicago takes Mendenhall at 14. Mendenhall is the kind of guy, you wonder if Detroit would take him. But Jerod Mayo would be a perfect fit for their system. Then in the second round get a Ray Rice or Chris Johnson.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Michael (Houston): What are the chances Baltimore goes with Ellis over Ryan assuming they are both available at 8?

Mel Kiper: No. They have to take the QB. They have to take the QB. The Ravens have to come out of this first round with a QB. Either taking one at 8 or moving back into the first round to get one late. If Ryan's gone, then they might move back in to get Flacco. If Ellis is there at 8, then possibly Baltimore could move from 8 to 10 and allow New Orleans to get Ellis. Then they could hope that Ryan is there at 10. But that's risky. What's to say a team wouldn't move in to 9 to get Ryan.

Mel Kiper: If Ryan's gone at 8, I think Baltimore might look at Rivers or a CB.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Joe (Huntsville,AL): Who is a better pick for the Falcons, Ryan or Dorsey?

Mel Kiper: They could go either way. Dorsey is my No. 1 player in this draft and Ryan is my No. 3. If they feel they can get back into the first round, and get Flacco or someone. They're like Baltimore, they have to get a QB in the first round. They could take Dorsey at 3 and then try to trade back in to get a Flacco, Henne or Brohm. To me, Dorsey is a hard guy to pass up. But they need a QB. I don't think they can go wrong either way.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Kris Chicago, IL: Our Jeff Otah or Chris Williams good enough prospects of being starters early in the season for the bears if either one gets drafted?

Mel Kiper: If you draft the LT, you expect him to play from Day 1. Chicago also needs a RB. Jonathan Stewart is a guy I look at. He could be a really good tandem RB with Benson. They're a team that you look at, there is no WR to take at 14. I don't see them taking a QB at 14. I would say it's a LT like Otah or Clady or someone like that. Or they take Stewart or a Felix Jones.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Rich( N.Syracuse NY): The bills need a quality tight end. Any hope for them in early rounds!!!

Mel Kiper: I think it is. Second round, they could look at John Carlson from Notre Dame or Fred Davis from USC. If they want to go third round, they could look at Kellen Davis or Brad Cottam.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Chuck (San Jose): If Howie Jr and Gholston are available at #4, it is a no brainer for the Raiders to take Howie Jr, right? Please tell me Al will not be seduced by Gholston's speed? This guy is inconsistent and has too many comparsions to Mamula, most likely just a workout wonder.

Mel Kiper: No. I have heard that they'd go Gholston over Chris Long. That's just what I've heard. With McFadden and Ellis in the discussion. Ultimately, Al Davis makes this call, which makes it a very tricky pick to call. I've heard from various sources that it could be Long. I think Gholston or McFadden would make the most sense.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
daniel (norman ok): how about malcom kelly from OU do you think he still has a chance to go in the first round after poor combine and pro day performances

Mel Kiper: Devin Thomas is going to be the first WR taken. He could go as early as 11 to Buffalo. Kelly could go in the late first round. Dallas, Pittsburgh, Tennessee all looking for WRs. If I had to guess right now, I would say Kelly is an early second round pick.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
tom* (parkville, md): How will the Jake Long signing affect picks 2-5 in Saturday's draft?

Mel Kiper: It doesn't effect it at all. It's been about the last three weeks that we've been predicting he would go to Miami. Teams have prepared for that. Once you lock in Long, you knew that the Rams would be looking DT. It really has been laid out for about three weeks now.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Steve (Manchester, NH): Patriots...what is the likelihood that they trade down? If they do who will be their trade partner and what can they expect to get for #7? If they stay at 7....what direction do they go?

Mel Kiper: It could be New Orleans at 10. They could trade with Denver at 12. Carolina at 13. I would think those would be some of the teams that would be looking to move up. The two teams that would definitely be possibilities are New Orleans to get Ellis and Carolina to get Matt Ryan.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jordan (Houston, TX(: The Texans have several needs, what direction do you see them going with their pick at 18?

Mel Kiper: They could go RB and get Jonathan Stewart or Mendenhall. They could take a CB. I would go one of those two positions.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Matt (Boston): Combine time, Dominic Rodgers Cromartie was the hottest name out there for cornerbacks. Why has the talk about him cooled down?

Mel Kiper: A little bit. He was hot for a long time. For the combine, Senior Bowl week. It's just a long process leading up to the draft. He's not a real good run support corner. It wouldn't shock anybody if he went in the top 10 or went 21. He could go from 7-21.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Stephen (Bluefield WV): If the Raiders do not select McFadden at 4, is he definitely going to the Jets? How far could he slide?

Mel Kiper: Oakland has got to consider McFadden. He has got to get consideration from the Jets. Adrian Peterson went at 7, McFadden could go at 6. I don't see him getting past the Jets.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mike (Brooklyn): Hey Mel, you have Tyrell Johnson as your Number 1 safety in the draft. In your opinion, what does he have that Kenny Phillips doesn't?

Mel Kiper: When you compare the two, I thought Johnson had a much better year. He was the Sun Belt Conference DPOY. He had some real strong games against Texas, Tennessee, Memphis, Southern Mississippi. He played against some quality teams, even though he played in the Sun Belt. He's faster than Phillips. Stronger. Just as athletic. His performance was superior.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TD (OH): Mel, The breaking news in you sector of the industry is the Allen trade ... period! How does the trade affect the first ten picks?

Mel Kiper: KC could all of a sudden could look DE over OT. They could look at Chris Long or Harvey over Brandon Albert. I think Harvey, if he goes at 5 would be one of the major reaches of the first round. He's No. 23 on my board.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ryan (SF) : Mel.. Christmas is only a couple of days away.. What can us 49er fans expect to find under the tree? Any chance they can trade back and pick up an extra 2nd or 3rd Rd pick?

Mel Kiper: Possibly. Where they're picking late in the first is usually where you find some activity. They need WR help, OLB, DE, CB. They could be a team that's looking to pick up some choices. If they stay where they are, I think they look OLB or WR.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
JAP (Dallas): Why are the saints not looking at McFadden. With Deuce being hurt and not having much left, shouldnt they consider him?

Mel Kiper: No. No. New Orleans has to look at DT or a CB. They have McAllister coming back and Bush. What this offense really needs is a TE. On defense, they desperately need a DT or a CB.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Louis (DC): Did the Vikings overpay for Allen?

Mel Kiper: They know they're a DE away from being a dominant defense. Allen is a talented football player. They know at 17 they're not going to get a DE of his caliber. The thing about Minnesota is that they don't know if they have the right QB. The jury is still out on Jackson. This is a real good football team that is a QB away.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nick (the Ville): Mel, where do you see Brian Brohm being picked?

Mel Kiper: He could go late first round to a team trading back in to Round 1. I would say early to mid second round. You could look at Chicago, Carolina, Minnesota, Atlanta. Those are the possibilities in Round 2.

Mel Kiper: Enjoy the draft! We've been doing this since August. We'll do a review chat at some point next week. Stay tuned for that.

[motife]

don buffalo: Did Nate Clements live up to expecations last year?

KC Joyner: He didn't live up to $80 million expectations, that's for sure. He had a 7.9 YPA and teams threw around 100 passes at him. Neither of those are close to shutdown numbers.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Landon(Boulder): What are your thoughts on the Jared Allen trade? I think MN now has the best DL and OL in the league. Tavaris should be much better in his second full season and the Vikes are going to be tough to beat in the NFC.

KC Joyner: I know this may sound crazy but Minnesota could now be a darkhorse NFC title candidate if Jackson keeps progressing. Berrian should solve some of their offensive woes (though he isn't as good as is generally said) and Allen gives them an instant pass rush. The NFC North should be down a bit with Favre leaving GB so the Vikes could be on the inside track to that division title.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Zac (MN): Hey KC, what did you think of the Jared Allen trade? Fair, one sided? what do Allen's metrics say?

KC Joyner: Allen's metrics say he is the most dominant pass rusher in the NFL. He split his one on one sacks almost evenly between speed moves and power moves and that's rare to have a player do that.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Zac (Bay Area): Why would the Raiders take Gholston over Howie Jr? The reports on Gholston say he takes plays off, losses focus. This is exactly what they do not need. They have had a roster full of these type of players. Even though Howie Jr might not be as gifted an athlete, his report says he has a motor that does not stop. Give me the guy who does not have a sense of entitlement and will bust his butt any day over some freak athlete who looks as if he doesn't care half the time.

KC Joyner: The only reason I could think of is upside. If Gholston's issue is maturity and the Raiders help him get that, then he's the better long term pick. I don't think that much talent separates the two, however, so I'd agree with you that taking Jr. is the higher percentage play.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Scott (Reno): Which trade do your metrics say will have a bigger impact? Pacman or Allen?

KC Joyner: Allen. When Pacman is on, he's a dominant CB (he had a YPA in the five yard range a couple of seasons ago) but he's replacing Jacques Reeves. Reeves had a 7.9 YPA last year, which isn't bad, so Pacman may only help them cut that by a yard or two.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pete (Austin, TX): Would Lito be a good fit in New Orleans, assuming they can work something out?

KC Joyner: As much as NO needs secondary help, it's not like Lito would be a big upgrade. He had an 8.1 YPA last year and only two picks. I don't see how he helps enough to justify a big payout in a trade.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Luis (SB, CA): KC, isn't it nuts how nobody is talking about a certain 2005 MVP who was just released? Do you think he still has value to a team?

KC Joyner: Great point, Luis! The issue with Alexander last year was largely due to the Seahawks O line. I did a metric review on them last season and they had horrible blocking success percentages pretty much across the board. No one was going to get much behind them. Alexander still has some gas left in the tank.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
J (Milwaukee): Did Lee Evans not qualify for your deep ball metrics, or was he just not as effective this year?

KC Joyner: He had 54 vertical passes thrown his way, so he did qualify. His 11.3 YPA on those passes was pretty good but just wasn't as dominant as it had been in years past.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jeff (B-More): Who is a better bet for QB for the Ravens, Troy Smith, Kyle Boller, or Matt Ryan?

KC Joyner: If it's my pick, I go Ryan. I think Ryan has the potential to be another Matt Hasselbeck. That's a Super Bowl caliber QB and as good as Smith might be, I don't know that he has that upside.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Travis(WI): In about 3 of your articles you mentioned being surprised that Roddy White was such a good WR. Isn't it possible that he is a pro-bowl caliber WR who was always held back by an unconventional(to put it nicely) QB?

KC Joyner: Travis, White is definitely a Pro Bowl caliber WR. Last year's QBing for Atlanta wasn't unconventional; it was just plain bad. Give White a good QB for a year and he's Hawaii bound in February.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Kelvin (Dayton): Do you believe the Bengals were wrong to refuse the trade with Washington? It sounds as if that was a generous offer all things considered (unless they expect to get more).

KC Joyner: I don't have any inside skinny on this but I'm betting they aren't going to play this like their backs are up against the wall. If they get a home run deal, great, but if they don't, I think they are willing to tell Johnson that he's a Bengal and he's got to deal with that.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jake (SF): I hate drafting on "upside." How many players actually reach their so called upside? It is always better to take the player who can play now than one who MIGHT be special one day IF he reaches his potential. why do teams fall into this trap all the time?

KC Joyner: Because the draft is all about physical talent. Teams will convince themselves they can solve problems that the college coaching staffs couldn't. It's a low percentage play but when they see a guy who can do things very few others can, they get blinders on. Plus they don't want to see the guy do well elsewhere and have to explain to ownership why they passed up on him.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
don buffalo: Jake. Antonio Cromartie...classic example. First one that came to mind.

KC Joyner: Good example, Don!


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Joe (Detroit): What do you think the Lions need to do in the draft? Mayo and Rice sound pretty good to me.

KC Joyner: That sounds like some kind of ingredient mix for a meal! Seriously, though, I can't see them going anywhere else but defense. They need D line help more than LB in my view, so I'd be surprised if they don't take the best D lineman on the board.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Chris (Seattle): Sorry KC, Alexander was running on Fumes all last year. He's done, he's slow, soft and injury prone.

KC Joyner: I wouldn't go that far Chris, but I will point out that even in Alexander's best years the Hawks O line wasn't very good metric wise. He was always able to put up numbers without much blocking and that he couldn't do so last year is an indicator he could be on the downside. I still think in the right situation he has the ability to be a very good featured back, though.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
George (NY): KC: Chances the Jets land Chris Long either with pick #6 or by trading up? Also, Gholston, Ryan or McFadden in the likely event C. Long is not there?

KC Joyner: I don't think Long will be there but I'd bet McFadden is there unless another trade is made in front of the Jets pick.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jake (SF): Don, that's one, and I am sure there are others. I could list hundreds, probably just from the Raiders, who have not lived up to it. I'm not saying Gholston will be a bad pick, but he has a lot of Mamula in him....

KC Joyner: Jake's retort. I'd don't quite see Mamula in Gholston, as Mamula just didn't have good football skills, but I do see the potential for a Shaun Rogers.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nick (Portland): S. Alexander to Denver?

KC Joyner: Maybe, but Denver gets production out of just about anyone so they won't pay top dollar for Shaun.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Randy (Wyoming(: Do you see the Broncos taking a skill player in the first round Mendahall, Stewart, or Kelly? Or is it an O-line all the way?

KC Joyner: I'd bet O line all the way, although it should be pointed out that McShay says Denver might go with an RB.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ed (fond du lac, WI): If the Packers draft a CB, how long until Harris is supplanted as a starter? Is there a late 1st round CB that you like to fit in their system?

KC Joyner: Ed, all coaches hate starting rookies, especially rookie CBs, but if Harris puts up another 9.7 YPA season like he did last year, they might end up having no choice but to play a youngster. Harris needs to go back to focusing on coverage instead of focusing on trying to make the big play. He was a 6 YPA guy in 2006 when he did that and that's what GB needs him to get back to.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Randy (Wyoming): I've also heard the Broncos taking Mayo at 12! Would that be a reach?

KC Joyner: Given where the mocks have Mayo going, yes it would be a reach.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mike (az): KC, How bout some cardinal talk. Everyone knows they need help in the secondary but do your metrics suggest its a lack of pass rush or simply a lack of talent in the secondary. I believe having Antrel Rolle now at FS will be a major upgrade (i predict real real big things for him this year!) but they still are very thin at CB. Whats your take, which one of the top CB's fits Clancy's system the best ( please dont say talib, that guy has terrible form!)

KC Joyner: I like Jenkins as the best fit but he's not likely to be there. It'll have to be McKelvin or Cromartie-Rodgers.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cindy ( Charlotte): Can John Fox and Company afford to draft Matt Ryan? How would he help the team win now and take Fox off the hot seat? Wouldn't Otah make more sense for them, shore up the O-Line?

KC Joyner: They need to win now and as good as Ryan's long-term upside is, he's very unpolished and is not ready to make an impact today. They'll go O or D line all the way.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ed (fond du lac, WI): News flash: Favre to announce tonight on Letterman that he's on the cover of Madden 09 next year. That means he's either going to break the jinx, or come back and get injured - but either way, looks like Favre isn't playing next year! (sadly)

KC Joyner: Not sure if this is true but if it is, I don't quite get it. I understand that Favre is the best known player in the NFL but how does putting a retired guy on the cover help a game? Is it to tell Packers fans they can still act as if Favre is still around? Why not put Eli on there instead?


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mikey(Lackawanna,NY): KC, I have a feeling the Buffalo Bills will select a CB like Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie with the 11th overall pick? Than trade back up into the late 1st or early 2nd rd(Like they have 3 out of the last 4 yrs) and draft a WR like a Limas Sweed, Malcolm Kelly, James Hardy, or Jordy Nelson?

KC Joyner: I could see that happening. The good news from both the Bills and the Cards perspectives is that even though there aren't any "elite" 1st round level CBs in this draft, there are still plenty of talented CBs out there. I could see as many as 6 CBs going in round 1.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Majeed: KC, Can Miami trade JT to Philly or jax for their #1?

KC Joyner: That's an interesting thought. I could see Jax more than Philly in that the Jags are but one or two players away from really making a Super Bowl run. Philly is a bit further off and they don't tend to build around one year plans either.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Chase (brewtown): Hey KC, what do you think of the packers trading a third or a second round pick for jason taylor? And what about packaging one of those second round picks with their first rounder to move up and grab the human battering ram Mendenhall? Both of these players could help the packers make the next step to the superbowl, couldnt they?

KC Joyner: Chase, I see GB being a lot like Philly. They build around youth. If Favre were still there they could make the case for making a Super Bowl run and taking the chance on trading for a vet but with Rodgers there it ain't gonna happen.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Anthony (NYC): KC were Antrell Rolle's metrics that bad as a CB that the Cards had to move him over to safety?

KC Joyner: Absolutely yes. A 10.3 YPA is a definite sign a CB needs to be moved/replaced.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Eric (Long Island, NY): KC my friend thinks Mike Jenkins the CB from South Florida is a future star. If he is there at 11 do you think the Bills should take him over any of the wr's?

KC Joyner: Jenkins is that good but with the way the Buffalo secondary played last year (which is to say pretty well), they might be better suited to take a WR. Having said that, guys like Jenkins don't come along every day and there aren't any dominant WRs in this year's draft, so they'd have to go with Jenkins.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Matt, Raleigh: Hey KC...don't you think that horrible pass rush in SF had something to do with Clements numbers?

KC Joyner: That would have been my first inclination but Walt Harris put up a 7.3 YPA, which is .6 better than Clements. And, as I mentioned earlier, teams didn't avoid Clements despite the 49ers having many other pass coverage weaknesses. That means NFL OCs aren't that worried about throwing at him.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tyler (PHX, az): KC, prior to last season you said that based on metrics, you thought Rod Hood was one of the best free agent signings. What do your metrics say after watching him perform in a starting role this past season? Did he live up to your expectations?

KC Joyner: He ended up ranking 24th in YPA and had a 50.5% success rate, so I'd say he lived up. And he did that despite facing 99 passes, so teams were testing him and failing for the most part.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bill (Green Bay): Do you think that Jake Long was what the Dolphins needed? Who do you think the best player in the draft is?

KC Joyner: Jake Long was exactly what the Fins needed. It isn't well known because of their bad record in 2007, but Miami actually has a very good O line. Left tackle was the one position they were lacking in and Long takes care of that problem. Look for a lot of offensive improvement out of Miami next year because of their top of the line O line.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Anthony (NYC): KC wouldn't the Bills be better off drafting DE- Harvey to apply pressure on the QB, they're secondary is pretty good.

KC Joyner: They would be if they believe Youboty is still going to be a top line CB. If that's the case (and the jury is still out on Youboty in my estimation), then going for a WR or DE makes sense.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aaron (Denver): What the heck!!! I just read that the Broncos traded for D. Robertson for pick or picks. I know he hasn't missed much playing time over the last couple season but if a player fails a physical don't you nix a trade? I don't understand.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Randy (Wyoming): KC espn just reported that the Broncos traded for Dewayne Robertson for an undisclosed draft pick? What do you think of the move?

KC Joyner: Guys, don't forget the Broncos track record. When it comes to D linemen, they like to take players with a lot of talent who didn't pan out elsewhere. This move fits right into their mindset. I think Robertson has bust potential written all over him, but you aren't going to get the Broncos to change they way they do things.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Eric (Long Island, NY): kc when will you finally admit you're a bills fan? glad to have you aboard!

KC Joyner: Eric, my emails are split between people who think I'm a Bills basher and those who think I'm a Bills fan. I was a Dolphins fan for many years before doing this but since I started writing for a living, I've given up my Aqua and Orange glasses and try to see things for how they are.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Raymond (Detroit,MI): The NFL should move the Draft to other cities like the supwe bowl,what do you think of that idea?

KC Joyner: Love it. All it takes is some floor space and a podium, so it's not like it has to be held in NYC. Let the fans in other cities enjoy it up close and personal.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
jay (ny): Do you see the Giants trading Shockey to the Saints? If so, what would they do with that 2nd round pick? A safety(t. Johnson) or a linebacker someone like dan conner.

KC Joyner: I don't understand why NO would be willing to pay so much for Shockey. Shockey's metrics over the years have been mediocre and NO has a decent TE situation going for them right now. No need to give up good draft value for a guy who is likely to drop off in productivity over the next few years.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tubs (Miami): If you're a Dolphins fan then answer a Dolphins question. Will the Dolphins draft a QB in the first three rounds? I hope not, because it means Beck can play.

KC Joyner: Tubs, I used to be a Fins fan. It turned out to be good timing because I didn't have to go through the 1-15 year as a fan! To answer the question, though, I wouldn't be surprised to see them go for a QB. Beck certainly didn't look like the answer last year and this draft has enough quality prospects that Miami should be able to get one in the later rounds.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
George (NY): The Super Bowl rotates around 4 or 5 spots, keep the draft in NYC! NYC will never get the SB.

KC Joyner: George, I'll trade you the Super Bowl for the draft. Move them both to cities that they haven't been in for a while!


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ron (Washington DC): Giants fans everywhere are sick with the thought of ELI on the cover of Madden. the jinx is real

KC Joyner: Maybe Eli was offered the cover and backed out because of that! That actually wouldn't surprise me at all and would be just another sign of improved maturity on his part. Well, I've got some calls coming in so I've got to hit the road. Just an FYI, you can find the chapter listing for my upcoming book "Blindsided, Why The Left Tackle Is Overrated and Other Contrarian Football Thoughts" on my website, www.thefootballscientist.com. Hope to see you all next week!

[packrulz]

I could see trading one of the 4th rounders for Jason Taylor but no higher, he's getting old & expensive, I think KGB can get 10-12 sacks.