MCGINN- "PACK MIGHT TRADE AWAY TOP PICK

[Bretsky]

VERY GOOD ARTICLE

http://www.jsonline.com/story/index.aspx?id=743857

[BF4MVP]

Very nice article. Thanks for the link, B. I agree with it there really is no one likely to be available who is worth the 30th pick..I'm still hoping Talib slips though..Felix Jones would be nice too, because I think he, paired with Ryan Grant, could form a very good 1-2 punch in the backfield..Neither is likely to be available though, so really unless someone falls, anyone we select at 30 would be a reach..

[MadtownPacker]

Unless someone pulls an Aaron Rodgers there is no way TT keeps this pick.

[Tarlam!]

What a shitty day to hold a draft! I hope TT trades up, I really do.

[RashanGary]

The whole premise of this article is based on one faulty statement.


"Let's assume, after months and months of analysis leading to widespread consensus, that the best players go first in the National Football League draft. "


You don't assume that, Bob. Know why? Because it's not true. Demeco Ryans was better than AJ Hawk. Jennings better than anyone before him. Jones better than just about every WR before him. Kampman, Harris, Barnett, Clifton, Tauscher, Favre, Grant, Levens, Freeman. . . . On and on and on.

Every year there are more players later in the draft that out perform these so called "better" counterparts. The draft isn't a situation where the best players go first. The draft is a very inexact science where you never really know what you are going to get. You might take a guy at 30 (logan Mankins for example) and McGinn would write about how you took a 2nd round talent and could have moved up boldly. Well, he's a probowler now. 2nd smecond - players are players and they are found from pick #1 all of the way to the last pick in the draft and sometimes with undrafted guys like Bigby, Grant and Jenkins.


This article does a good job illustrating just how completely unpredictable this pick is, but it did nothing to show that good to great players aren't taken at pick #30. All it did was say "assume all the good ones are picked first" and that was supposed to be some sort of evidence. Yeah right, Bob. You can do better than that.

[RashanGary]

I remember in 2006 - Christl was writing about how the #5 pick is FAR FAR FAR from a sure thing. He was writing about bust rates and how rare it really is to get a great one with that pick.

Now all of a sudden moving up to #12 is supposed to land us an all pro. This whole article is just BS.


IN TED WE TRUST


Good decisions made over and over and over add up to good things. Keep drafting good players, do your homework and you will have studs sprinked in there. It might not be with the 30th pick. It might not be with the 56th. It might not be with the 60th but maybe it's the 90th pick. Maybe it's the 120th. Who knows where luck is going to meet preparation, but there should be no anxiety about not being able to get good players. Just keep picking, be as non biased, hard working, skilled, open minded and flexible as you can be and opportunity will present itself. Good things happen to those who stiffle fear. When it comes to being an NFL GM, I believe desperation is the mother of all f-ups. The reasoning that McGinn just displayed is exactly why there are GM's that will always fail. If we move up, great. If not, there are plenty of good ones and maybe better ones to be had later.

[Bretsky]

The whole premise of this article is based on one faulty statement.


"Let's assume, after months and months of analysis leading to widespread consensus, that the best players go first in the National Football League draft. "


You don't assume that, Bob. Know why? Because it's not true. Demeco Ryans was better than AJ Hawk. Jennings better than anyone before him. Jones better than just about every WR before him. Kampman, Harris, Barnett, Clifton, Tauscher, Favre, Grant, Levens, Freeman. . . . On and on and on.

Every year there are more players later in the draft that out perform these so called "better" counterparts. The draft isn't a situation where the best players go first. The draft is a very inexact science where you never really know what you are going to get. You might take a guy at 30 (logan Mankins for example) and McGinn would write about how you took a 2nd round talent and could have moved up boldly. Well, he's a probowler now. 2nd smecond - players are players and they are found from pick #1 all of the way to the last pick in the draft and sometimes with undrafted guys like Bigby, Grant and Jenkins.


This article does a good job illustrating just how completely unpredictable this pick is, but it did nothing to show that good to great players aren't taken at pick #30. All it did was say "assume all the good ones are picked first" and that was supposed to be some sort of evidence. Yeah right, Bob. You can do better than that.


I think you are nitpicking JH; he could have changed that phrase to


Let's assume, after months and months of analysis leading to widespread consensus, that the "highest graded" players go first in the National Football League draft

I actually thought you'd love the article as it was pretty absent of bias.

I can't remember how many WR's were taken before Jones; some are better IMO. Calvin Johnson is better. IMO Sydey Rice is better.....although some will dispute that based off the stats. He defininitely seems better than the USC dude; and I liked the big USC receiver before the draft

[red]

wow, somehow mcginn has gained access to other teams war rooms and was allowed to see a teams final big board


Cason is rated third on the Cowboys' board, behind Leodis McKelvin and Mike Jenkins and apparently just slightly ahead of Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Aqib Talib. McKelvin should be gone by 10, and if somehow Jenkins were to slide to 22 the Cowboys no doubt would snap him up.

he's just guessing like the rest of us at this point

[texaspackerbacker]

I've never liked McGinn. I sincerely HOPE, however, he is right about one seemingly unbelievable item in his article. He claims Rodgers-Cromartie is no higher than the 4th best Corner and is likely to be there when the Packers come up at #30?

I don't buy the "trade down". In fact, I'm on record in several threads saying I think Thompson will trade UP to get either McKelvin, Rodgers-Cromartie, or Jenkins--the only three (IMO) top level Corners in the draft. If he could get one of those without trading up? Wouldn't that be nice!

[red]

i think theres absolutely no way TT trades up. in fact i'm not even sure he's ever traded up in his 8 years of drafting

and i think mcginn is high if he thinks DRC is falling

[Maxie the Taxi]

McGinn: "The Packers obviously would jump for joy given a shot at the top three cornerbacks. They'd probably also select Talib, a talented but troubled player with a criminal record and three positive tests for marijuana."

I'd be shocked if the Packers selected Talib or any other player with character issues. That's just not their MO.

[Guiness]

PACK MIGHT TRADE AWAY TOP PICK

In other news, a bear shits in the woods...

[Fritz]

I remember in 2006 - Christl was writing about how the #5 pick is FAR FAR FAR from a sure thing. He was writing about bust rates and how rare it really is to get a great one with that pick.

Now all of a sudden moving up to #12 is supposed to land us an all pro. This whole article is just BS.


IN TED WE TRUST


Good decisions made over and over and over add up to good things. Keep drafting good players, do your homework and you will have studs sprinked in there. It might not be with the 30th pick. It might not be with the 56th. It might not be with the 60th but maybe it's the 90th pick. Maybe it's the 120th. Who knows where luck is going to meet preparation, but there should be no anxiety about not being able to get good players. Just keep picking, be as non biased, hard working, skilled, open minded and flexible as you can be and opportunity will present itself. Good things happen to those who stiffle fear. When it comes to being an NFL GM, I believe desperation is the mother of all f-ups. The reasoning that McGinn just displayed is exactly why there are GM's that will always fail. If we move up, great. If not, there are plenty of good ones and maybe better ones to be had later.

Agreed. Absolutely. McGinn is just manufacturing some criticism to fill space.

McGinn suggested a few days ago that TT should be hung if he doesn't trade up. Now he's suggesting TT ought to be hung if he doesn't trade down.

So in his view, the worst thing Ted can do is sit tight and pick a guy at #30.

I'l trust Ted's judgment over McGinn's at this point, thanks.

[run pMc]

wow, somehow mcginn has gained access to other teams war rooms and was allowed to see a teams final big board

LOL

Everybody lies before the draft...DAL probably have their DB's ranked differently. IMO Jerry Jones is more likely to draft Felix Jones in R1 to pair up with Marion Barber than he is to draft a CB that learns from watching Pacman.

[The Leaper]

I like it when McGinn starts posting bullshit. Good things start happening when he does. He wrote up all kinds of bullshit prior to last season, and it got us a 13-3 record and trip to the NFCC game.

[Bretsky]

I like it when McGinn starts posting bullshit. Good things start happening when he does. He wrote up all kinds of bullshit prior to last season, and it got us a 13-3 record and trip to the NFCC game.

Didn't McGinn predict us to go deep deep into the playoffs at the beginning of last season ?

[HarveyWallbangers]

Didn't McGinn predict us to go deep deep into the playoffs at the beginning of last season ?

Him and Vinnie Iyer were predicting division titles. About the only ones. McGinn is good. Christl was good. They don't hit a homer on every article, but they are better than most.

[The Leaper]

Didn't McGinn predict us to go deep deep into the playoffs at the beginning of last season ?

He did, but he rode Thompson like a rental mule several times for not being aggressive enough in acquiring talent.

[DonHutson]

I've never liked McGinn. I sincerely HOPE, however, he is right about one seemingly unbelievable item in his article. He claims Rodgers-Cromartie is no higher than the 4th best Corner and is likely to be there when the Packers come up at #30?

I had to read it twice myself, but here's what he said:

"With most teams higher on Rodgers-Cromartie than the Cowboys, the assumption is he'll be long gone by 20, let alone be available at 30."

So he's saying DRC is gone by #20. All in all he paints a grim picture of who might be sitting there at #30.

[Fritz]

Don, do you mean to say that there are only 29 top notch, NFL-quality college football players in the whole country available for the draft?

If that's the case this will be the worst draft ever, ever, ever in the NFL.

[RashanGary]

Don, do you mean to say that there are only 29 top notch, NFL-quality college football players in the whole country available for the draft?

If that's the case this will be the worst draft ever, ever, ever in the NFL.

That's what he's saying. And they're all going to get scooped up right in order because NFL teams have this thing figured out do an exact science. There's no way to get a probowl 2nd rounder but the upper picks are pretty much sure things :roll:

[DonHutson]

Don, do you mean to say that there are only 29 top notch, NFL-quality college football players in the whole country available for the draft?

If that's the case this will be the worst draft ever, ever, ever in the NFL.

No, and frankly I'm not sure how you derived anything that drastic from what I said. I think after about #20 or so, the next hundred plus are almost interchangeable this year. Many of that next hundred will be players and many won't. I'd be happy to trade down and build up our odds.

[woodbuck27]

Unless someone pulls an Aaron Rodgers there is no way TT keeps this pick.

At #30 his best allay to create picks and not in his MO to use it today.

TT trades down from #30 if he has any chance that will get him high picks and to cover the 6th round. His best chance is with #30 to set his draft up.

[DonHutson]

Don, do you mean to say that there are only 29 top notch, NFL-quality college football players in the whole country available for the draft?

If that's the case this will be the worst draft ever, ever, ever in the NFL.

That's what he's saying. And they're all going to get scooped up right in order because NFL teams have this thing figured out do an exact science. There's no way to get a probowl 2nd rounder but the upper picks are pretty much sure things :roll:

Thanks for telling me what I was saying JH. I thought I was saying something else entirely, but I guess I was wrong.

[Fritz]

I've never liked McGinn. I sincerely HOPE, however, he is right about one seemingly unbelievable item in his article. He claims Rodgers-Cromartie is no higher than the 4th best Corner and is likely to be there when the Packers come up at #30?

I had to read it twice myself, but here's what he said:

"With most teams higher on Rodgers-Cromartie than the Cowboys, the assumption is he'll be long gone by 20, let alone be available at 30."

So he's saying DRC is gone by #20. All in all he paints a grim picture of who might be sitting there at #30.

It's your last line that lead me to my interpretation, Don. A 'grim picture of who might be sitting there at #30' sounds like there's nobody worth drafting.

I mis-interpreted, then. So what did you mean? Now I'm really curious.

[DonHutson]

I mis-interpreted, then. So what did you mean? Now I'm really curious.

First of all, I'm referring to McGinn's article/mock, not our prospects generally. I said 'he' paints a grim picture and well, doesn't he? McGinn makes it sound like we're screwed. I don't necessarily agree with that, but if it went down as he suggested - a lot of the players I like are gone.

[Fritz]

Okay. Got it.