What was Thompson thinking?

[RashanGary]

Thompson says he'll trade back if he has many players rated equally and is going back a short enough distance where he knows he can get one of the equally high players rated on his board. If he can't trade back he takes the guy he needs most. He'll trade up if the quality is there. With that in mind and listening to the post draft press conferences, here's what I think happened and what it means.


Jordy Nelson - The Packers didn't need a reciever at all. Based on what Thompson says, he had a few players rated equally so they felt moving back would allow them to pick up an extra pick and get one of the equally rated players. I think Thompson fell in love with Nelson similarly to the way he fell in love with Harrell last year. He didn't want to take an equally rated player at a positoin of need so he dropped back knowing the other guys would get scooped up and he could take the guy he wanted all along. Result, Jordy Nelson is a Packer.
VALUE - Solid value. Thompson loved him and Thompson seems great with WR's. Expect a borderline probowler.

Brian Brohm - Thompson and McCarthy had him rated very high. They said they tried to move up, but luckily he ended up falling in their lap. I think the Packers feel very fortunate to have him for a late 2nd round pick.
VALUE - McCarthy loved him. Expect true competition starting next year.

Patrick Lee - I think there were probably multiple players rated equally, but the Packers need a CB so badly that rather than entertaining offers, they just take the guy they really need and move on. They don't "need" too many extra picks so they make a decisoin that isn't value concious, but rather need concious (the kind I dread because often times they don't live up to their draft position).
VALUE - Poor value. The Packers needed him. Expect a ST's player that never lives up to his draft status. Don't expect much more than you do of Finley or Jeremy Thompson.

Jermichael Finley - Again, like with Patrick Lee, the Packers really needed a TE. They had a couple players available but they don't "NEED" more picks so they just take the guy that their roster needs the most. This again is not a value decision, it's a need decision
VALUE - Moderate value. Thompson said they wanted a TE but only if it made sense. It must have made sense. High potential guyt that could be a probowler and could impregnate 7 females and end up in jail for beating one of them.

Jeremy Thompson - With the Finley decision, I think they had a couple players rated the same. One of the others is this guy. 11 picks after they selected Finley, they move up 11 picks to get this guy. I think he and Finley were on the same tier. Thompson took the need first and moved up to take the other later. I think we can consider these two equally rated prospects.
VALUE - Really good value for the spot. Thompson had to feel he was the best available. Probably just as good of a prospect as Finley even though picked later.

Josh Sitton - A Ted Thompson special. He's sick of moving down. He loves his small school kids. He takes the best player, but since there are many he takes the on that fits need most. He wants more competition at OG. He's sick of the mediocrity.
VALUE - Solid value. Later in the draft, Thompson said it didn't make sense to keep moving back. He wanted higher picks next year, but couldn't get them so he took a guard to compete with the guys we have.

Breno Giacomini - The Packers really need a tackle. The way their board works out, they finially get a chance to take one. Why not take another high potential, high risk guy similar to Tony Moll a few years ago.
VALUE - OK, Thompson will never do anytyhing stupid, but this is a bit of a need pick. Could easily be rated the same as Flynn or Swain.

Matt Flynn - Right now, the Packers don't even want another QB, but they can't believe Flynn is still here. Thompson said in his presser that he couldn't believe the guys that were still available late in the draft. He really doesn't want this position, but he can't pass him up.
VALUE Great value. The Packers don't even want him, but have to take him because they feel he's too good to pass up

Brett Swain - The last thing the Packers need right now is a WR, but they had him rated in the 5th round and at this point they have no choice. They have to take him just because they feel he's too good to pass up.
VALUE - Best value in the draft. They don't want him at all because they have so many good WR's. Based on them picking him, I think he has a chance to beat out Ruvell and Robinson. I woudln't be surpised if next years WR's are Driver, Jennings, Nelson, Jones and Swain. Thompson said he couldn't believe who was available at the end. I think this is another he was talking about.


Like with the Bradon Jackson and Colledge picks, I think there are a few streches here, but Thompson is good at evaluationg talent and I'm sure he wont' reach too badly. I just don't expect Lee and Giacomini to live up to their draft positions and I think Finley has a higher bust rate than the typcical Thompson pick but he over-looked it to fill a need. I also think all of the attention he's getting is going to his head a bit. He feels he can do no wrong so swayed more than usual from what got him here.

[Tarlam!]

Nice post JH. I like how you try and get into TT's pysche. I bet you got close on a few of your observations, particularly on Nelson, Flynn and Swain.

I enjoyed the read. Thanks! :D

[HarveyWallbangers]

Patrick Lee - I think there were probably multiple players rated equally, but the Packers need a CB so badly that rather than entertaining offers, they just take the guy they really need and move on. They don't "need" too many extra picks so they make a decisoin that isn't value concious, but rather need concious (the kind I dread because often times they don't live up to their draft position).

VALUE - Poor value. The Packers needed him. Expect a ST's player that never lives up to his draft status. Don't expect much more than you do of Finley or Jeremy Thompson.

What? Maybe you expect that. Others would disagree. Kind of funny how the guy you don't like is poor value. Nobody has any idea where Lee was on their board. As far as we know, Nelson, Brohm, Lee could have been #28, #29, and #30 on their board.

[Patler]

Patrick Lee - I think there were probably multiple players rated equally, but the Packers need a CB so badly that rather than entertaining offers, they just take the guy they really need and move on. They don't "need" too many extra picks so they make a decisoin that isn't value concious, but rather need concious (the kind I dread because often times they don't live up to their draft position).

VALUE - Poor value. The Packers needed him. Expect a ST's player that never lives up to his draft status. Don't expect much more than you do of Finley or Jeremy Thompson.

What? Maybe you expect that. Others would disagree. Kind of funny how the guy you don't like is poor value. Nobody has any idea where Lee was on their board. As far as we know, Nelson, Brohm, Lee could have been #28, #29, and #30 on their board.

I agree with Harvey. I think your analysis is greatly influenced by your own opinion of the players drafted.

Why did the Packers "need a CB so badly"? Sure, they can always use CBs, everyone can, but they are better off there than they were a few years ago. The team had bigger, more immediate needs than cornerbacks right now.

Probably their biggest need was QB, they had Rodgers and no one after him, at all. After QB, TE was probably their next biggest need, again because they have no one after the starter. Thereafter, OT perhaps even more than CB, especially at left OT where no one has much experience. At least the returning CBs have some experience.

By selecting a CB high, and before more immediate needs at TE and OT suggests that the player picked was perceived as a high value player at that spot by TT.

[Lurker64]

I also honestly think that Sitton wasn't as good value as Giacomini. Virtually everyone and their dog thought that Giacomini should be drafted in the fifth round as a project with a lot of upside. Virtually everyone had Sitton going undrafted.

The difference, of course, is that Sitton might be able to play more this year, but it's not like the Sitton pick didn't come out of "WTF-Nowhere" at the time, since there were much "higher rated" OL on the board, ESPN didn't have any d-roll on the guy, most draft "experts" had the guy undrafted, and Scouts Inc. didn't even have a bio of the guy.

I'm not sure where you get that one is a value and the other isn't. I also think that your ratings are greatly influenced by your personal opinions of these players, particularly your apparent dislike of Patrick Lee. I know if you ask scouts, Flowers gets a much higher grade than Lee (after all he was taken 25 spots earlier), but at the same time if you're asking scouts and say "I need a cornerback to not start, but to groom to play press coverage", Lee gets a much higher rathing that Terrell Thomas, Terrence Wheatly, Charles Godfrey, or Chevis Jackson. Even though this was a "deep" class at Cornerback, all these guys had their warts. You could pick apart any of the corner prospects if you wanted to.

[BF4MVP]

Nice, thoughtful post..It's obviously biased, as some have pointed out..But hey, we're allowed to be..We're not journalists and we all have opinions and expressing them is what this message board is for...

I disagree with the value you placed on Lee..I think that's right about where he should have been drafted and should get significant playing time behind Al Harris and Charles Woodson..

I also disagree with Finley..I think that pick was a great value in the third round..Mel Kiper's Hair says that if he had stayed at Texas a year longer rather than come out after his redshirt sophomore season, he would have been a first round pick..

[Scott Campbell]

It's all interesting speculation, but all that really matters now is how they look once the pads go on, and how they develop. Their ours.

[3irty1]

Jermichael Finley - Again, like with Patrick Lee, the Packers really needed a TE. They had a couple players available but they don't "NEED" more picks so they just take the guy that their roster needs the most. This again is not a value decision, it's a need decision
VALUE - Moderate value. Thompson said they wanted a TE but only if it made sense. It must have made sense. High potential guyt that could be a probowler and could impregnate 7 females and end up in jail for beating one of them.


Before the draft you thought this was Ted's guy and he was drooling over him. Since we got him, I'd say that you were right and this pick is very good value. Many thought that he shouldn't have come out this early and would have easily been a first day pick next year.

I also think that Lee is probably the best athlete we drafted this year and will either boom or bust, not stick around and be a mediocre special teamer. We'll see if his light go on but he sounds like a guy that fits our defense and could wind up being a stud.

[MadtownPacker]

Jermichael Finley - High potential guyt that could be a probowler and could impregnate 7 females and end up in jail for beating one of them.Hahah, you can't get that kind of analysis from ESPN!!

[Scott Campbell]

Jermichael Finley - High potential guyt that could be a probowler and could impregnate 7 females and end up in jail for beating one of them.Hahah, you can't get that kind of analysis from ESPN!!


Were the National Enquirer of the sports world.

[Brohm]

It's all interesting speculation, but all that really matters now is how they look once the pads go on, and how they develop. Their ours.

Indeed, I remember Hodge was a "value" pick in the 3rd round two years ago, but hasn't been able to develop due to injury. Hopefully he can come back this TC and pan out. Can't wait to start seeing all these new guys throw down.

[Merlin]

Hodge was the next coming of Brian Urlacher. He took over for Barnett and pushed Barnett to the outside. Oh wait, that was the speculation then that never came true.

Although I agree with some of what JH said, it is just that, pure speculation along with hints of personal bias.

I agree, let the pads get put on before we go crowning anyone or changing your nickname to one.

[Deputy Nutz]

Hodge was the next coming of Brian Urlacher. He took over for Barnett and pushed Barnett to the outside. Oh wait, that was the speculation then that never came true.

Although I agree with some of what JH said, it is just that, pure speculation along with hints of personal bias.

I agree, let the pads get put on before we go crowning anyone or changing your nickname to one.

I guess this is exactly why I took a step back in terms of the draft. We all got worked up over Hodge and began to speculate about the move to the outside for Barnett. In reality Hodge wasn't even good enough for the coaches to even consider that move.

[The Leaper]

Hodge was the next coming of Brian Urlacher.

What?

When did Hodge play safety at Iowa?

[Tarlam!]

I'm still hopeful Hogde will push Barnett outside...

[woodbuck27]

Brave thread JH.

I feel overall that this was a strange and unfocused draft for us and that TT reached a couple of times and drafted where we didn'y have need. 2X WR and QB?

NO! I'll say this again though. This is TT's season to taske stock. DD is getting up there in age but his marvelous conditioning trumps that.

How many QB's do we need with zero to little NFL experience? I'll buy the Brian Brohm pick as a player that was much higher on TT's board; therefore excellent value, but to pick another QB and WR late on Sunday?

I'm not getting it. I'll welcome any explanation of the merit in 2XQB and 2X WR.

Packers Forever!!

[HarveyWallbangers]

I feel overall that this was a strange and unfocused draft for us and that TT reached a couple of times and drafted where we didn'y have need. 2X WR and QB?

How did you feel about his reaches for Greg Jennings and James Jones?

[Patler]

Very simple. If you truly subscribe to the "best player available" philosophy, it does not matter what position they play. Even apart from that, I think it can be explained:

The Packers had 1 QB. That's it. Drafting two establishes competition of sort for the back-up and gives three to work with for down the road. Three is not too many QBs. Most complained when they carried only two.

TT is still looking for the "burner" at WR. Something they don't have.

Both were 7th round picks. I get the feeling TT felt there wasn't a lot left, anyway. Why not take a chance with some guys that might have developmental potential (Flynn) or provide a missing dimension (Swain).

If you can draft a QB late, work with him a couple years and trade him for a higher pick, you have created value. Flynn could be that type of pick.

[Lurker64]

Both were 7th round picks.

Exactly. It really shouldn't matter what position you pick because 7th round picks don't usually make the team for the teams that drafted them.

Last year we took a TE (Clark Harris) in the 7th round and everybody was relieved that TT took a TE because they were concerned with the fact that we didn't have one. Harris didn't make the team and nobody was broken up over it. Last year's other 7th, Deshawn Wynn wouldn't have made the team were it not for the mess we had at the RB position. He is a longshot to make the team this year. Our 7th round pick the previous year, Dave Tollefson, is no longer with the team. Our two 7th round picks the previous year, Kurt Campbell and Will Whittacker are likewise no longer with the team. In 2004 we actually hit on a guy in the 7th round, getting Scott Wells, but other than Wells and Williams that draft was absolutely horrible. Going back further, in 2003 we had four seventh round picks: Chris Johnson, DeAndrew Rubin, Carl Ford, and Steve Josue; none are currently with the Packers. The last time we had picks in the seventh was 2000 when we took Tauscher (another success), and also Ron Moore, Charles Lee, Eugene McCaslin, and Rondell Measley. The last five for that group made little to no contribution to the Packers.

So from 2000-2007 we have had 14 seventh round draft picks. Two of them of them have turned out to be good players (Tauscher and Wells), one other is currently on the team but may not be for much longer (Wynn). Other them, 11/14 contributed essentially nothing of value to this team.

So spending a 7th round pick on a position you're deep in, isn't any great loss since most 7th round picks end up on the practice squad or get cut anyway.

Personally, I would rather see TT take a flyer on a QB and a WR that he thinks could develop in time into a good NFL player after spending a few years on the practice squad, even though we're deep at those positions, than a DB or RB who will probably never develop into anything but we take because we lack bodies at those positions.

[3irty1]

Both were 7th round picks.

Exactly. It really shouldn't matter what position you pick because 7th round picks don't usually make the team for the teams that drafted them.

Last year we took a TE (Clark Harris) in the 7th round and everybody was relieved that TT took a TE because they were concerned with the fact that we didn't have one. Harris didn't make the team and nobody was broken up over it. Last year's other 7th, Deshawn Wynn wouldn't have made the team were it not for the mess we had at the RB position. He is a longshot to make the team this year. Our 7th round pick the previous year, Dave Tollefson, is no longer with the team. Our two 7th round picks the previous year, Kurt Campbell and Will Whittacker are likewise no longer with the team. In 2004 we actually hit on a guy in the 7th round, getting Scott Wells, but other than Wells and Williams that draft was absolutely horrible. Going back further, in 2003 we had four seventh round picks: Chris Johnson, DeAndrew Rubin, Carl Ford, and Steve Josue; none are currently with the Packers. The last time we had picks in the seventh was 2000 when we took Tauscher (another success), and also Ron Moore, Charles Lee, Eugene McCaslin, and Rondell Measley. The last five for that group made little to no contribution to the Packers.

So from 2000-2007 we have had 14 seventh round draft picks. Two of them of them have turned out to be good players (Tauscher and Wells), one other is currently on the team but may not be for much longer (Wynn). Other them, 11/14 contributed essentially nothing of value to this team.

So spending a 7th round pick on a position you're deep in, isn't any great loss since most 7th round picks end up on the practice squad or get cut anyway.

Personally, I would rather see TT take a flyer on a QB and a WR that he thinks could develop in time into a good NFL player after spending a few years on the practice squad, even though we're deep at those positions, than a DB or RB who will probably never develop into anything but we take because we lack bodies at those positions.

I think Wynn will make the team. Until Ryan Grant was sent from heaven, Wynn was our most productive back.

[Bossman641]

Both were 7th round picks.

Exactly. It really shouldn't matter what position you pick because 7th round picks don't usually make the team for the teams that drafted them.

Last year we took a TE (Clark Harris) in the 7th round and everybody was relieved that TT took a TE because they were concerned with the fact that we didn't have one. Harris didn't make the team and nobody was broken up over it. Last year's other 7th, Deshawn Wynn wouldn't have made the team were it not for the mess we had at the RB position. He is a longshot to make the team this year. Our 7th round pick the previous year, Dave Tollefson, is no longer with the team. Our two 7th round picks the previous year, Kurt Campbell and Will Whittacker are likewise no longer with the team. In 2004 we actually hit on a guy in the 7th round, getting Scott Wells, but other than Wells and Williams that draft was absolutely horrible. Going back further, in 2003 we had four seventh round picks: Chris Johnson, DeAndrew Rubin, Carl Ford, and Steve Josue; none are currently with the Packers. The last time we had picks in the seventh was 2000 when we took Tauscher (another success), and also Ron Moore, Charles Lee, Eugene McCaslin, and Rondell Measley. The last five for that group made little to no contribution to the Packers.

So from 2000-2007 we have had 14 seventh round draft picks. Two of them of them have turned out to be good players (Tauscher and Wells), one other is currently on the team but may not be for much longer (Wynn). Other them, 11/14 contributed essentially nothing of value to this team.

So spending a 7th round pick on a position you're deep in, isn't any great loss since most 7th round picks end up on the practice squad or get cut anyway.

Personally, I would rather see TT take a flyer on a QB and a WR that he thinks could develop in time into a good NFL player after spending a few years on the practice squad, even though we're deep at those positions, than a DB or RB who will probably never develop into anything but we take because we lack bodies at those positions.

Amen

I'm not gonna sit here and complain about any 7th round picks. 7th round picks barely make any contribution. Like Lurker said, if TT thinks they can make something of these guys, then take them and stash them on the PS. It's better then drafting a position of need and then cutting him a couple months later.

[KYPack]

Hodge was the next coming of Brian Urlacher. He took over for Barnett and pushed Barnett to the outside. Oh wait, that was the speculation then that never came true.

Although I agree with some of what JH said, it is just that, pure speculation along with hints of personal bias.

I agree, let the pads get put on before we go crowning anyone or changing your nickname to one.

A lot of people went nuts over Hodge. He was projected as a 1 & people when gaga when we picked him up as a 3. He's a pretty good kid, can fill like crazy. But cover? he can't do it. They kept him for potential and ST. Now. his knees are shot. I don't look for him to get out of camp.

I went nuts on JSO when that draft was over. I went postal bc some dumb shits were saying now that we had Hodge (Like that was a big thing) we should switch to a 3-4! They just have no grasp of what it takes to install a totally different defensive system.

So, I let 'em have it.

Hodge has really fallen off the radar scope. I never hear a thing about his rehab. So it probably, it ain't good.

[run pMc]

Agree it's a brave post, and one that is somewhat biased.


I think Thompson fell in love with Nelson similarly to the way he fell in love with Harrell last year. He didn't want to take an equally rated player at a positoin of need so he dropped back knowing the other guys would get scooped up and he could take the guy he wanted all along. Result, Jordy Nelson is a Packer.

I don't understand this. If two players were rated equally, and one was for a position of need, why wouldn't you pick them? Either Nelson was clearly the BPA at #36 in TT's mind, or he felt WR is a bigger position of need than most fans do. Does anyone think if TT had Brohm rated as the better player, he'd have taken him at #36 instead of Nelson?

As for Harrell, he didn't trade down. Harrell was a BPA pick at a position most fans thought was well stocked. I think TT said he thought Harrell would have been a top 10 pick if he'd been healthy. Meanwhile, many were saying TT should pick Meachem or Bowe.

Maybe I'm missing the point?

[RashanGary]

The point was he fell in love with both players. In Harrells case he would not trade down. He wanted one guy and one guy only at that point.


In Nelsons case he traded down for an excuse to take him. He has a board that goes on quality first and need 2nd. At 30 he had guys that he "needed" more but were rated equally to Nelson so he couldn't take Nelson because it's against his holy book of Draft rules. Instead of breaking one of the unbreakable, he dropped back, letting teh other guys get scooped up and giving him an excuse to take Nelson. In short, he fell in love and did what he had to do to justify picking him. Harrells situation was different in that he declined trades but the same in that he did what he had to do to get him even if it meant passing up good offers.

[HarveyWallbangers]

The point was he fell in love with both players. In Harrells case he would not trade down. He wanted one guy and one guy only at that point.

It may be that he didn't think the offer to him was good enough value or too risky. He turned out to be correct on the trade. He may or may not have picked the wrong guy. Remember that the folks that took the time to actually analyze the offer from Cleveland said that the Packers would have lost on that trade according to the value chart.

I have no doubt that Thompson would trade any player if he felt the value was right.

[Lurker64]

The point was he fell in love with both players. In Harrells case he would not trade down. He wanted one guy and one guy only at that point.

I don't think you're any more capable of reading Ted Thompson's mind than anybody else is.

I'm personally of the mind of "Thompson was sitting there at 30 and there were no players left with first round grades, the Jets called and he figured that if he moved back a few spots he could have his pick of a bunch of guys he had second round grades on." I have found absolutely no reason to believe that Thompson was more in love with Nelson than with Brandon Flowers, for example. He just picked Jordy and not Flowers because Flowers was gone by the time he picked. McGinn had it right, the probability of a guy who had a legitimate first round grade being there at 30 was very slim, so he expected Thompson to trade. Most scouts did not have a first round grade on Keller, Phillips, or Flowers for example. You could make a case for Merling having a first round grade and being good value at that position, but there can be a strong case made for staying away from Clemson DEs with injury problems based on history. I most strongly believe that Thompson traded down since there simply wasn't first round value that he cared for available and he didn't want to reach for a second round player he liked when he could get an extra draft pick out of it instead.

But I don't get to see TT's draft board, and neither do you, so I would suggest you avoid making definitive statements that imply you are some kind of mindreader, unless of course you are in which case you should get a job with the Packers to predict what play the opponent will run or what other teams will do in the draft. We could use a guy who can read minds in the front office.

[Bretsky]

The point was he fell in love with both players. In Harrells case he would not trade down. He wanted one guy and one guy only at that point.

It may be that he didn't think the offer to him was good enough value or too risky. He turned out to be correct on the trade. He may or may not have picked the wrong guy. Remember that the folks that took the time to actually analyze the offer from Cleveland said that the Packers would have lost on that trade according to the value chart.

I have no doubt that Thompson would trade any player if he felt the value was right.


I'm not sure I'd say TT turned out to be right on the trade ? I don't know if I agree or disagree with that to be honest. The value charts are outdated. If you look at the value charts from this year TT lost on almost every deal he made

Harrell, to me showes a bit of potential, but not enough for me to argue anything for him. Would I rather have had Harrell, or Mendenhall or Jenkins..or others there at 22 that were available ? Debateable IMO

TT chose to stand firm last year and that was his perogative. Time will tell.

[HarveyWallbangers]

I'm not sure I'd say TT turned out to be right on the trade ?

He turned out to be right because if he had made the trade, he would have traded the 16th pick in a draft for the 22nd pick in the following draft. Even though it looked like Cleveland would have a bad pick, he decided it wasn't worth the risk. The way teams rise and fall in the NFL he turned out to be 100% correct on his decision not to make that trade. Anyway anybody wants to spin it otherwise is hogwash.

His choice of the player he drafted cannot not be analyzed at this time. Let's see what Harrell turns into before we write him off.

I'll take Grant over Mendenhall right now.

[Bretsky]

I'm not sure I'd say TT turned out to be right on the trade ?

He turned out to be right because if he had made the trade, he would have traded the 16th pick in a draft for the 22nd pick in the following draft. Even though it looked like Cleveland would have a bad pick, he decided it wasn't worth the risk. The way teams rise and fall in the NFL he turned out to be 100% correct on his decision not to make that trade. Anyway anybody wants to spin it otherwise is hogwash.

His choice of the player he drafted cannot not be analyzed at this time. Let's see what Harrell turns into before we write him off.

I'll take Grant over Mendenhall right now.


Didn't we also get a high 2nd as part of that deal ?

[Lurker64]

Didn't we also get a high 2nd as part of that deal ?

No, the deal that Cleveland offered Thompson (and other teams) was "2008 first round picks and swap 2nd, 3rd, and 4th picks in 2007." That was a lowball offer and would have been a mistake for any of those teams (including ours to make).

The deal that Cleveland ended up giving Dallas was 2007 Round 2 and 2008 Round 1. They had to sweeten the deal for Dallas as Kansas City was picking at 23, one behind Dallas, and the Chiefs had made it public that if Quinn were available they would take him. So the Browns either had to make an offer that was sweet enough for the Cowboys to take, or not get Quinn. They were under no similar compunction not to lowball Green Bay, since if Green Bay didn't take their offer they still had the opportunity to work out a deal with Jacksonville, Denver, Cincinnati, Tennessee, the Giants, or the Cowboys. So Cleveland ended up lowballing all the teams before Dallas, hoping they'd bite on the promise of a "very high pick in 2008", to get a deal which was in their favor. None of those teams (not just ours) took the bait. In retrospect, those teams were correct to do so. Dallas made out only about even since they traded the 22nd pick in 2007 for the 22nd pick in 2008 and the #36 pick in 2007 (which they traded).

It is dangerous to become enamored with "that team will do very poorly next season so that will be a very good draft pick" since the team trading you the pick is going to do their darnedest to devalue that pick during the season.

In his 2007 post draft press conference Thompson specifically said that he didn't want to take the Cleveland deal since it would have resulted in a net loss in number of picks in 2007. So we weren't offered a second round pick. In theory you could imagine how Thompson might have been able to talk them into throwing in a second, but that would be difficult to do considering that there were six other teams they could negotiate with who might take a better deal (for the Browns.)

[Bretsky]

Didn't we also get a high 2nd as part of that deal ?

No, the deal that Cleveland offered Thompson (and other teams) was "2008 first round picks and swap 2nd, 3rd, and 4th picks in 2007." That was a lowball offer and would have been a mistake for any of those teams (including ours to make).

The deal that Cleveland ended up giving Dallas was 2007 Round 2 and 2008 Round 1. They had to sweeten the deal for Dallas as Kansas City was picking at 23, one behind Dallas, and the Chiefs had made it public that if Quinn were available they would take him. So the Browns either had to make an offer that was sweet enough for the Cowboys to take, or not get Quinn. They were under no similar compunction not to lowball Green Bay, since if Green Bay didn't take their offer they still had the opportunity to work out a deal with Jacksonville, Denver, Cincinnati, Tennessee, the Giants, or the Cowboys. So Cleveland ended up lowballing all the teams before Dallas, hoping they'd bite on the promise of a "very high pick in 2008", to get a deal which was in their favor. None of those teams (not just ours) took the bait.

In his 2007 post draft press conference Thompson specifically said that he didn't want to take the Cleveland deal since it would have resulted in a net loss in number of picks in 2007.


Gosh it seems like Dallas and New England are often the teams to screw others in draft day deals

[RashanGary]

I remember when Thompson made that non move. Afterward he said some guys in his group wanted that deal, but he ddin't know how to weigh next years picks. He had no feel for value. It seems liek he feels comfortable to mvoe back if he knows what he can get when he moves back but he wasn't comfortable making a move he didn't have a feel for.


At the time, I wasn't disappointed horribly in the decision, but I was disappointed in the answer "that he didn't know how to weight it".



This year he came out and traded a 7th for a 6th next year and said he wanted to do it a couple more times. I think he learned from his uncertainty in time of pressure and came up with a way to approach next years picks. I think if the question were asked at another conference the decision might be the same, but this time I think he'll have a better answer like "We had offers, but we didn't feel they were good for the Packers" not just "I didn't want to give up something this year, but didn't know how to evaluate next year so I took the guy I wanted". I was looking forward to see how he would deal with those type of situations going forward and I think he's gotten better. He's willing to deal in the unknown of future picks now where before he didn't know how to approach it.

[RashanGary]

The way the value chart works out, a 7th this year is worth a 6th next year. A 6th is worth a 5th and so on.

I think a good way to approach the draft would be to take those opportunities when they arise and then when a deep draft comes keep all of your picks. Obviously, you don't trade picks when you really like what is there, you consider trade backs and trade ups as well, but you do consider the this year for next year picks as well and I do think they will present themselves often because the nature of the draft promotes desperation and in desperate situations, people will give up more later to get something now.

Example of how this would work:

This year:
We traded a 7th or a 6th.

Next year:
We trade a 7th for 6th
We trade two 6ths for a 4th

Following year
We trade a 4th for a 3rd
We trade two 6ths for a 4th
We trade a 7th for a 6th

Following year This is a blockbuster draft, LOADED with players.
We now have:
1st
2nd
2 - 3rds
2 - 4ths
5th
2 - 6ths
7th

So we start the draft with 10 picks instead of 7 and that is before comp picks.

[HarveyWallbangers]

This year he came out and traded a 7th for a 6th next year and said he wanted to do it a couple more times. I think he learned from his uncertainty in time of pressure and came up with a way to approach next years picks.

Not really. It's pretty common knowledge that GMs consider a pick in a certain round is worth a pick the following year that's one round higher. The fact that he made that trade this year has absolutely nothing to do with the Harrell trade offer. I'm 100% certain he was aware of that.

It's completely different when the pick is for the same round the following year--especially a 1st round pick. You just can't take that risk.

[RashanGary]

He did say he didn't know how to evaluate the situation, harv. Do you think he really knew it was a bad call and just lied about not knowing? Seems like an odd lie to me.


Ever since he gave that answer, I took it for what he said it was. I didn't really want to just make something up that worked for me. I was OK with the pick because of what was allegedly offered, but I was a little concerned aobut him not knowing how to deal with next years picks. I'm looking forward to him dealing more in those types of opportunities because I think they come up enough to get an edge and I thought it bothered him at the time that he didn't now how do deal with it. I'm not used to that type of answer from Thompson and I'm glad to see him now dealing in what he considered last year "unknown"

[HarveyWallbangers]

#1) I've never seen him quoted saying that. I'd like to see that quote.
#2) That had no bearing on his trade this year.

[Lurker64]

I remember when Thompson made that non move. Afterward he said some guys in his group wanted that deal, but he ddin't know how to weigh next years picks. He had no feel for value. It seems liek he feels comfortable to mvoe back if he knows what he can get when he moves back but he wasn't comfortable making a move he didn't have a feel for.

I'm pretty sure he meant "I didn't know how to weigh next year's picks" in more of a sense of "I was conflicted about it and didn't have a good sense on whether or not it was a good deal" than "I'm incompetent and I've never thought about it before." I'm sure he's thought about it before, but everybody finds themselves in situations where they're faced with alternatives and the proper choice is ambiguous, even if you've thought about it before.

I'm pretty sure that Thompson was correct in not taking the Cleveland deal since it would have been a mistake (which was the cause of his uncertainty), and not because he had never considered trading for next year's picks before.

I mean, after all, with the deal offered, he wouldn't have had another pick until #36 which was 20 picks lower. I would hesitate about trading down 20 spots at the top of the draft, wouldn't you? I imagine most GMs of teams that are not yet playoff teams would.

[Chubbyhubby]

Did you hear the Ryan Grant is still not signed!

[RashanGary]

“I’ve never really been able to figure that one out. Quite frankly, I’m fairly certain I’ve never been involved in a draft day trade either giving or receiving next years picks. We had calls today wanting to know if we wanted next years 6ths for one of our 6ths. I know how to value that years particular draft picks with how the board is set up. It would be great to pick up other picks for the following year, but what do you give up?”

This is the quote from Thompson. It sounds to me like he's never been able to wrap his arms around trading this years picks for next years picks and that he's never been involved in one either way.

What struck me at the time about this was that he didn't knwo how to evaluate it and that he's never done it becuase of that. I liked the pick of Harrell, I just didn't like his reasoning for not dealing with next years picks. I suppose if you want to believe he knew how to evaluate next years picks and was just lying that you can make that arguement, but I guess I've never heard him lie before so I just take things at face value with Thompson. And even if you think he was just lying, I think it's hard to find a motive for lying here. He sounded unprepared. Why make yourself look that way if you don't have to?

I think he learned and is more willing and it's nice to see he made hsi first such trade and was acctually trying to make more. I'm happy to listen to other arguements for what was going through Thompsons head, but I'm pretty sur eI'm going to take his word before yours, Harv. The evidence is pretty clear.

[Packgator]

Josh Sitton - A Ted Thompson special. He's sick of moving down. He loves his small school kids.

Sitton isn't a small school kid. UCF ranks 6th amoung D1 football schools with an enrollment over 48,000.

1. Ohio State University
2. University of Florida
3. Arizona State University
4. University of Minnesota
5. University of Texas
6. University of Central Florida
7. Texas A&M University
8. Michigan State University
9. Pennsylvania State University
10. University of Wisconsin

[RashanGary]

If there is one thing I'm reliable with, it's what Ted Thompson has said. I might not know everythign he stands for, but I do know what he says he stands for and I know when someone is misquoting him or misphrasing him and I don't do it myself.

The whole Jordy thing was in jest to have fun with Thompsons "googly eyes" when he talks about him, but when I say Thompson said something, it's because he said it or damn close. I'm not Bob McGinn. And even my saying Thompson is in love with Jordy Nelson mgiht not be patently from Thompsons mouth, I did watch his body language and listen to his tone and even my thread that was an exaggeration and clear joke was more accurate (in that Thompson really is in love with Nelson) than half of what is written by McGinn and tried to be passed off as journelism.

[HarveyWallbangers]

If there is one thing I'm reliable with, it's what Ted Thompson has said. I might not know everythign he stands for, but I know what he says he stands for and I know when someone is misquoting him or misphrasing him.

So, he hasn't ever made a trade in Seattle or Green Bay for a future pick. It's common, and it pretty sure he's aware of the consensus that if you trade, for example, a 7th round pick in 2008, you should get a 6th round pick in 2009.

Where's the link to this quote? Sometimes he kind of rambles on, and I like to see the quote in the context of his interview. It would seem kind of silly that people would offer him a 6th in the next year's draft for a 6th in that year's draft.

[RashanGary]

go to packers.com/draft/2007/av

It's toward the end of the 2nd day press conference. It's word for word and in the exact context that I quoted.

[RashanGary]

It would seem kind of silly that people would offer him a 6th in the next year's draft for a 6th in that year's draft.

I thought that was stupid too, esspecially considering the Packers had a mid 6th rounder. Why would the Packers even consider that. I think it was probably more the traditional this years 7 for next years 6 but he mispoke. Even still, that was the quote and the general message was still pretty clear. He's never done it and dint' really know how to value it.

He went from never doing it, then he had a big time situation come up where he could have done it, then he said he didn't know how to weigh it, then the following year he did it once and tried to do it multiple times. I think it's natural to learn from a situation that you were unprepared for the year before and I think the circumstances here shows that happened.

[woodbuck27]

I feel overall that this was a strange and unfocused draft for us and that TT reached a couple of times and drafted where we didn'y have need. 2X WR and QB?

How did you feel about his reaches for Greg Jennings and James Jones?

Harvey:

Really the way TT's sets it up. Nothing's a reach on his board.

I liked the Greg Jennings pick Harvey.

James Jones was a pick I've never felt either way about, as far as. Will he succeed or not. Just another prospect that had to make the team, and we hope that's the case in Green Bay.