Favre td to int ratio

[red]

ok, so i posted this on another site awhile ago and got 0 responses for it, which sucked, because it took a bit of time to do

a lot of folks out there are making a big deal about the fact that Brett is about to break the record for most career int's, and use this to somehow discredit him. they say he's been too wild and out of control over his career. i thought people should look at the other numbers and compare this with the exact opposite stat td's thrown. so i came up with a little ratio (td's/int's) and compared bretts numbers to the "greats". the numbers even surprised me

all super bowl winning qb's

name td/ints tds per int

Bart Starr 152/138 1.10
Joe Namath 173/220 .79
Len Dawson 239/183 1.31
Johnny Unitas 290/253 1.15
Roger Staubach 153/109 1.4
Bob Griese 192/172 1.12
Terry Bradshaw 212/210 1.01
Ken Stabler 194/222 .87
Jim Plunkett 164/198 .83
Joe Montana 273/139 1.96
Joe Theismann 160/138 1.16
Jim McMahon 100/90 1.11
Phil Simms 199/157 1.27
Doug Williams 100/93 1.08
Mark Rypien 115/88 1.31
Troy Aikman 165/141 1.09
Steve Young 232/107 2.17
Brett Favre 396/255 1.55
John Elway 300/226 1.33
Kurt Warner 119 /78 1.53
Trent Dilfer 106/117 .91
Tom Brady 123 /66 1.86
Brad Johnson 155/102 1.52
Ben Roethlisberger 34/20 1.70

so by my math favre has thrown 1.55 td's for every int for his career. thats 5th best if you look at all the super bowl winning qb's. only behind some guys named montana, young, brady, and roethlisberger. and with time, and without top notch teams, brady and big bens ratio could drop

then i looked at the top 20 qb's of all time based on attempts

D Marino..........8358.....420/252.....1.66
B Favre............7612.....396/255.....1.55
J Elway.............7250.....300/226.....1.33
W Moon ...........6823.....291/233.....1.25
D Bledsoe ........6548.....244/198.....1.23
V Testaverde.....6526.....269/261.....1.03
F Tarkenton.......6467.....342/266.....1.29
D Fouts ............5604.....254/242.....1.05
J Montana .........5391.....273/139.....1.96
D Krieg ............5311.....261/199.....1.31
B Esiason ..........5205.....247/184.....1.34
J Unitas..............5186.....290/253.....1.15
K Collins ............5082.....173/166.....1.04
J Hart ................5076.....209/247.....0.85
S Deberg ............5024......196/204.....0.96
J Everett .............4923.....203/175.....1.16
J Kelly ................4779.....237/175.....1.35
T Aikman ..........4715.....165/141.....1.17
J Hadl ..............4687.....244/268.....0.91
P Simms ............4647.....199/157.....1.27

brett doesn't do too bad with these guys either. 3rd (td/int ratio), only behind that montana guy again and that marino fella

maybe bretts not as bad and wild as some people think he is

[Bretsky]

These are great stats Red, and goes to show the Favre negativists that he is not only a great QB, but he stacks up favorably against the best even when taking into account the interceptions.

And then when you take into account how Brett Favre carried some inferior talent on some offensive teams (as Evidenced by Ron Wolf's greatest regret being not surrounding Favre with enough talent) in his prime, and his success it accelerates his greatness.

But some of the Favre haters will choose to ingnore the facts over his career and instead dwell on a few playoff games and choose them to define his career.

In reality, Green Bay was at times fortunate to get that far, and it often did primarily due to the successful gunslinging menatality of Brett Favre.

I look forward to seeing the Anti Favre guys respond to this.

But truth be told, Red, part of the reason that this may not get that many responses is there are not many people in this site who undervalue the past greatness of Brett Favre.


Thanks for sharing the hard work,
B

[GrnBay007]

Great stats Red!

Looks like the "uncoachable" Brett Favre is doing pretty well afterall. :razz:

[red]

thanks guys, my first 2 responses for these stats, and it only took a month

[Travbrew]

Great job Red, thanks. I'm sure many will overlook these stats. Some poeople won't change their opinions, even after they're shown cold hard facts. I should print it out in a reduced size and laminate it. Keep it in my pocket to shove in someone's face the next time they try to talk shit about BF and his ints.

[woodbuck27]

Great job red and ' of course ' Brett Favre has the stat's to support his TRUE GREATNESS.

Your assignment now . . . .

is to contact Jason Wilde via E-mail if possible @
jwilde@madison.com AND pass this little tid bit of REAL information along to him, so maybe he'll cool his jets a wee bit / lighten up on the Favre attacks!

[Bretsky]

Great job red and ' of course ' Brett Favre has the stat's to support his TRUE GREATNESS.

Your assignment now . . . .

is to contact Jason Wilde via E-mail if possible @
jwilde@madison.com AND pass this little tid bit of REAL information along to him, so maybe he'll cool his jets a wee bit / lighten up on the Favre attacks!


That would be interesting, and Red you should be given the enjoyable job of getting the info to this clown.

[GBRulz]

Awesome stats, Red...thanks for posting that!!

Oh bulldog...where are you?? :twisted:

[red]

to be honest, i have never read anything the guy has written, so it wouldn't be that big of a deal to me to send this to him

however, you guys are more then welcome to use the numbers, and send them to the "clown". it sounds like you guys would get more of a kick out of shutting him up then i would

[chain_gang]

Looks good Red, he ranks around the top 5 in almost every important category, including this one. For the amount of passes he's had to attempt, that's actually pretty incredible.

Still can't believe Young had a 2 to 1 TD to Int ratio, holy crap. I knew the guy was good, but damn. Guess if he would've played longer it would have dropped some, but more than likely he'd be no. 1 on the list. I never really cared for the guy but he was great.

[pbmax]

Very nice work Red, thank you. One thing, besides Favre, caught my eye and that was Aikman's relatively low number. Now I am no Aikman apologist, I did not think he was as good as he was made out to be.

However, I don't remember him as an int machine or drive killer either.

I wonder how the running game affects these numbers. Aikman obviously lost a number of TD opportunities to Emmit and his O line. The West Coast QBs were passing in the red zone even when they had solid running games.

[Bretsky]

to be honest, i have never read anything the guy has written, so it wouldn't be that big of a deal to me to send this to him

however, you guys are more then welcome to use the numbers, and send them to the "clown". it sounds like you guys would get more of a kick out of shutting him up then i would


Red,

You are not missing any quality by avoiding this guy's articles


B

[son of a vic]

Why is anyone that points out, that Favre needs to play better this season than last, considered a Favre "basher." I have always said that Brett is a great Q.B., but he can't have a repeat performance of last season, no matter the circumstances. Don't paint everyone that thinks Favre has to play better, as a hater. Some of us want him to do well, but we're not going to make excuses for him when he doesn't.

[GBRulz]

Why is anyone that points out, that Favre needs to play better this season than last, considered a Favre "basher." I have always said that Brett is a great Q.B., but he can't have a repeat performance of last season, no matter the circumstances. Don't paint everyone that thinks Favre has to play better, as a hater. Some of us want him to do well, but we're not going to make excuses for him when he doesn't.

No doubt he made some bone headed plays last year. I don't think there is one person in here that doesn't agree with that. but the difference is some people look at the whole picture and don't just constantly dwell on the negative portions of his career. Which was Red's point in posting that.

[son of a vic]

Anyone that looks at his entire body of work, and is not impressed, is football illiterate, and should be forced to watch every game of the World Cup.

[pbmax]

Plyr...............Att/TD.......Att/Int........Diff
J Montana..........19.75........38.78.........19.04
D Marino............19.90........33.17.........13.27
B Favre..............19.22........29.85.........10.6 3
J Elway...............24.17........32.08..........7. 91
B Esiason...........21.07........28.29..........7.22
J Kelly................20.16........27.31..........7 .14
D Krieg..............20.35........26.69...........6. 34
P Simms............23.35........29.60...........6.25
D Bledsoe..........26.84........33.07...........6.23
W Moon.............23.45........29.28...........5.84
F Tarkenton........18.91........24.31..........5.40
T Aikman...........28.58........33.44..........4.86
J Everett.............24.25........28.13..........3. 88
J Unitas..............17.88.......20.50...........2. 62
K Collins............29.38........30.61...........1. 24
D Fouts..............22.06........23.16...........1. 09
V Testaverde......24.26........25.00...........0.74
S Deberg............25.63........24.63.........-1.01
J Hadl................19.21........17.49..........-1.72
J Hart................24.29.........20.55..........-3.74

[MadtownPacker]

WOW, first Shamrock breaks down OTA attendence then Red cracks down on Favre fact! You got down player!

[Bretsky]

Why is anyone that points out, that Favre needs to play better this season than last, considered a Favre "basher." I have always said that Brett is a great Q.B., but he can't have a repeat performance of last season, no matter the circumstances. Don't paint everyone that thinks Favre has to play better, as a hater. Some of us want him to do well, but we're not going to make excuses for him when he doesn't.


Who said you were a Favre hater ? You are a bit defensive today SOV.

[Bretsky]

Plyr...............Att/TD.......Att/Int........Diff
J Montana..........19.75........38.78.........19.04
D Marino............19.90........33.17.........13.27
B Favre..............19.22........29.85.........10.6 3
J Elway...............24.17........32.08..........7. 91
B Esiason...........21.07........28.29..........7.22
J Kelly................20.16........27.31..........7 .14
D Krieg..............20.35........26.69...........6. 34
P Simms............23.35........29.60...........6.25
D Bledsoe..........26.84........33.07...........6.23
W Moon.............23.45........29.28...........5.84
F Tarkenton........18.91........24.31..........5.40
T Aikman...........28.58........33.44..........4.86
J Everett.............24.25........28.13..........3. 88
J Unitas..............17.88.......20.50...........2. 62
K Collins............29.38........30.61...........1. 24
D Fouts..............22.06........23.16...........1. 09
V Testaverde......24.26........25.00...........0.74
S Deberg............25.63........24.63.........-1.01
J Hadl................19.21........17.49..........-1.72
J Hart................24.29.........20.55..........-3.74


This is great information as well.

Bretsky

[KYPack]

Good job, Red.

It's amazing when there is a lot of discussion about a topic, then you do the work and look up the answer & nobody seems to care or post.

[pbmax]

Brad Johnson!?

Plyr...............Att/TD.........Att/Int.........Diff
T Brady..............20.72..........38.61..........1 7.89
B Johnson..........24.50..........37.23..........12. 73
B.Roethlisberger..16.56..........28.15..........11 .59
K.Warner............19.66..........30.00.......... 10.34
R.Staubach.........19.33..........27.14..........7 .80
M.Rypien............22.72..........29.69.......... 6.97
L.Dawson...........15.65..........20.44..........4 .79
J.Theismann.......22.51..........26.10..........3. 59
J.McMahon..........25.73..........28.59..........2 .86
B.Starr...............20.72..........22.82........ ..2.10
B.Griese.............17.86..........19.94......... .2.08
D.Williams..........25.07..........26.96.......... 1.89
T.Bradshaw.........18.40..........18.58..........0 .18
K.Stabler............19.55..........17.09......... .-2.47
T.Dilfer...............27.85..........25.23....... ...-2.62
J.Plunkett...........22.57..........18.69......... .-3.88
J.Namath............21.75..........17.10..........-4.65

[Patler]

Red, I also did a similar analysis elsewhere, except I compared interceptions directly to attempts. Again, Favre fairs pretty well. The reason I don't like the comparison to TDs is that a lot depends on the teams "1st and goal" philosophy, which I recognize can be dictated by the quality of the QB. However, for many years the Packers play selection inside the 5 was heavily weighted toward passing.

I like comparisons to attempts because it is a simple question, "When he throws the ball, how often do the 'bad guys' catch it?" Taking your list of the top 20 in attempts, the percentage of interceptions to attempts looks like this:

D Marino..........8358/252 .... 3.01%
B Favre............7612/255 .... 3.35 %
J Elway.............7250/226..... 3.12%
W Moon ...........6823/233..... 3.41%
D Bledsoe ........6548/198..... 3.02%
V Testaverde.....6526/261..... 4.00%
F Tarkenton.......6467/266..... 4.11%
D Fouts ............5604/242..... 4.32%
J Montana .........5391/139..... 2.58%
D Krieg .............5311/199..... 3.75%
B Esiason ..........5205/184..... 3.54%
J Unitas..............5186/253..... 4.88%
K Collins ............5082/166..... 3.27%
J Hart ................5076/247..... 4.87%
S Deberg ............5024/204..... 4.06%
J Everett .............4923/175..... 3.55%
J Kelly ................4779/175..... 3.66%
T Aikman ..........4715./141..... 2.99%
J Hadl ................4687/268..... 5.71%
P Simms ............4647/157..... 3.38%

Favre is #7 best (7th lowest interception percentage).

The long and short of it is that Favre has thrown the ball a lot of times. Because of that, he has an awful lot of completions, TDs and interceptions, as you would expect. If he wasn't a great QB, he would never have had the opportunity to throw as many passes as he has. His is among the best in every category, no matter how you compare it.

[esoxx]

I've always felt uncomfortable "defending" Favre to other Packer fans. What's funny is I never seem to have to defend him to other teams fans. They respect him b/c they've been on the receiving end of his thunder. Meanwhile, Packer fans seem to take him for granted. Now, does this mean he played well last year and doesn't need to play better this year? No. I don't think anyone's thinking or saying that. It's just the lack of persepctive given to Favre's overall body of work, by the actual following of the Green & Gold, I often find embarrasing and based in ignorance and petulance.

[Anti-Polar Bear]

The problem with Favre is, he likes to throw ints at the most opportune time. No one would be talking about 4-26 or 4-1 if not for 1st and 10 in overtime against the Eagles after the Pack defense had just got the ball back. Throw it away, hell even take a sack, and hope would still be alieve and Pack would have gone on to beat Carolina and win the SB.

That game wasn't Mike Sherman's fault.

[woodbuck27]

Good job, Red.

It's amazing when there is a lot of discussion about a topic, then you do the work and look up the answer & nobody seems to care or post.


Yea. They all go to the toilet.

That is what the forum is really all about . To divert 'the dieing brain syndroms'.

Now alot of the posters on here, will argue that for some, that issue is already settled.

[red]

Red, I also did a similar analysis elsewhere, except I compared interceptions directly to attempts. Again, Favre fairs pretty well. The reason I don't like the comparison to TDs is that a lot depends on the teams "1st and goal" philosophy, which I recognize can be dictated by the quality of the QB. However, for many years the Packers play selection inside the 5 was heavily weighted toward passing.

I like comparisons to attempts because it is a simple question, "When he throws the ball, how often do the 'bad guys' catch it?" Taking your list of the top 20 in attempts, the percentage of interceptions to attempts looks like this:

D Marino..........8358/252 .... 3.01%
B Favre............7612/255 .... 3.35 %
J Elway.............7250/226..... 3.12%
W Moon ...........6823/233..... 3.41%
D Bledsoe ........6548/198..... 3.02%
V Testaverde.....6526/261..... 4.00%
F Tarkenton.......6467/266..... 4.11%
D Fouts ............5604/242..... 4.32%
J Montana .........5391/139..... 2.58%
D Krieg .............5311/199..... 3.75%
B Esiason ..........5205/184..... 3.54%
J Unitas..............5186/253..... 4.88%
K Collins ............5082/166..... 3.27%
J Hart ................5076/247..... 4.87%
S Deberg ............5024/204..... 4.06%
J Everett .............4923/175..... 3.55%
J Kelly ................4779/175..... 3.66%
T Aikman ..........4715./141..... 2.99%
J Hadl ................4687/268..... 5.71%
P Simms ............4647/157..... 3.38%

Favre is #7 best (7th lowest interception percentage).

The long and short of it is that Favre has thrown the ball a lot of times. Because of that, he has an awful lot of completions, TDs and interceptions, as you would expect. If he wasn't a great QB, he would never have had the opportunity to throw as many passes as he has. His is among the best in every category, no matter how you compare it.

the reason i don't like that way is because it doesn't really show the productive good numbers. and just like the reason you gave for not liking the td ratio, this one also depends a lot on the offense run. if there is a pass happy team that likes to bomb the ball down the field alot (like we did last season) then the INT ratio will be higher compared to the attempts. but if its an offense that dinks and dunks with little short passes all day, the attempts will be way up and the ints should be way down

i do like that other numbers that pbmax gave a lot. using int % to td %. it kind of takes the best of both worlds

[Patler]

the reason i don't like that way is because it doesn't really show the productive good numbers. and just like the reason you gave for not liking the td ratio, this one also depends a lot on the offense run. if there is a pass happy team that likes to bomb the ball down the field alot (like we did last season) then the INT ratio will be higher compared to the attempts. but if its an offense that dinks and dunks with little short passes all day, the attempts will be way up and the ints should be way down

i do like that other numbers that pbmax gave a lot. using int % to td %. it kind of takes the best of both worlds

I don't think an interception analysis shouldn't show good numbers. There is no relationship between touchdowns and interceptions, in my opinion. The two are unrelated. As far as a pass happy team, long bombs are still the responsibility of the QB, he has to take care of the ball in that situation too. And we saw last year that the dinks and dunks can be intercepted too. Favre had plenty of those, including the one against the Bears for a TD. To me, the qustion is very simple. When he throws the ball, does he take care of it, or is he careless with it.

[pbmax]

shamler, I was going to do a list of how the drive "ended" for the team. Either INT or score. I think TDs not FGs, but you could argue either case.

And it was because of the point you made. QBs can control most, not all, of the INTS. There are still the matter of tipped or deflected passes, as well as wrong routes to a lesser degree.

But in any case, an INT ends the possession and the possibility to score. And it should be compared to total scoring opportunities and actual scores. A good QB would maximize the latter, no matter who scores and minimizes the former.

As I said, I was going to do it, but the data was all over the place and would take forever to lookup. Not to mention finding older game data.

Have you ever visited footballoutsiders.com? You might like it.

[Patler]

As I said, I was going to do it, but the data was all over the place and would take forever to lookup. Not to mention finding older game data.


Ya, so what's the problem? Get on it!! :razz: :razz:

[Patler]

But in any case, an INT ends the possession and the possibility to score. And it should be compared to total scoring opportunities and actual scores. A good QB would maximize the latter, no matter who scores and minimizes the former.



Those kinds of comparisons are very interesting, but can be a little mind boggling too.

An interception in the red zone ends a real scoring opportunity, but if the defense gets a "3 and out" you're often right back there again.

An interception deep in your own territory doesn't end much of a scoring opportunity for you, but may result in an immediate scoring opportunity for your opponent.

Which is worse? I would argue that any interception when the line of scrimmage is inside either 30 yard line is much worse than an interception when the line of scrimmage is between the 30s. If I did an anlysis like you suggested, I would identify at least those three groups.

[Tony Oday]

The problem with Favre is, he likes to throw ints at the most opportune time. No one would be talking about 4-26 or 4-1 if not for 1st and 10 in overtime against the Eagles after the Pack defense had just got the ball back. Throw it away, hell even take a sack, and hope would still be alieve and Pack would have gone on to beat Carolina and win the SB.

That game wasn't Mike Sherman's fault.


LOL I love it use a Favre thread to defend Sherman. Was it Favres fault that Sherman lost the guts to go for it on 4th and 1 the way Green was running and let the Eagles Back into the game? Good job GREAT coaching there.

[red]

you also have to consider going for it all at the end of a half, where a qb has nothing to lose and everything to gain if his guy catches it in the endzone

or a third and long situation, where a qb can either check down and find the dump off pass that will come up well short of the first down, and then punt, or throw it up long and maybe get the first down. and if its picked off you are no worse off then if you punted. if you're down by 14 with 5 seconds left in the half and you know your kicker can't make the kick, then you can either throw the hail marry which has a good chance of getting picked off, but doesn't hurt you unless its returned all the way, or you can kneel down and piss off your fans

favre had quite a few of these last year

and also ints thrown while trailing or leading. if a team is down 21 points in the 4th with 5 minutes left, a team and qb are going to take more chances then they normaly would

[pbmax]

or a third and long situation, where a qb can either check down and find the dump off pass that will come up well short of the first down, and then punt, or throw it up long and maybe get the first down. and if its picked off you are no worse off then if you punted.
A good number of West Coast offense routes are designed to be check off length and expect the receiver to make more yardage after the catch.

If time is short, then going deep, regardless of coverage, has merit. But going deep on third and long is not such a sure thing.

I am also dubious of this assertion because not even Sherman Lewis, the man who ushered in the Go Deep era, designed third and long plays that had all three receivers running deep routes. 3rd and 6 doesn't require a Go route or a post. Part of the third down equation has to be the QB making the right read, not just going deep "trying to make a play".

[havanother]

Favre's int's do happen at critical points, but that's when most int's do. third and 20 or a must make 4th down play. At least those are the int's that everyone will remember. Noboday cares about the picks that happen and don't swing the game one way or another. When he throw's a pick on 2 and 8 and then the opposing team goes three and out or just kicks a field goal everyone thinks "okay we dodged a bullet" and it's never talked about.

[packinpatland]

I wish someone (I have limited computer skills) would zip this very well done ratio int/td list to that biased hunk of junk, Dr. Z, over at SportsIllustrated.
Thanks for spending the time compiling the info, great job!