Is Ryan Grant an "average" running back?

[NewsBruin]

Some posts bemoaned that Grant hadn't even rushed for 1,000 yards this year (what was called "average" in some posts). In earlier contract negotiations, the Packers wanted to raise Grant's threshold for performance from 1,000 to 1,500 yards.

That made me wonder: What does an "average" running back get in the NFL? 1,500 yards wouldn't be too bad. That's less than 100 yards/game if one could play the entire season.

Here's the stats from NFL.com (http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats;jsessionid=7ABCBC7158A1DF78413C6D7E1 D637B6F?archive=false&seasonType=REG&statisticPositionCategory=RUNNING_BACK&d-447263-o=2&conference=null&d-447263-s=RUSHING_YARDS&experience=null&d-447263-n=1&season=2007&qualified=true&Submit=Go&tabSeq=1&d-447263-p=1):

—This year, NO running back earned 1,500 yards in the regular season. LaDanian Tomlinson came closest with 1,474 (and I traded him away after the first four games because I am a tool and an idiot). Seventeen players rushed for 1,000 yards or more during the 2007 season. Ryan Grant was the 18th best rusher in the regular season. Take the top 32 backs, and that's just under "average". I hope Grant doesn't run for 1,500 yards in a season, for fear that he might be run into the ground.

—Ryan Grant averaged 5.1 yards per carry in the 2007 season. Only fifteen backs averaged more, although that includes a lot of junk stats, like Artose Pinner (ATL - 5 attempts, 46 yards) and DeDe Dorsey (CIN - 21/183). Take out everyone with fewer than 200 yards, and only seven running backs in the NFL rushed better per handoff than Grant. In fact, only two running backs (Fred Taylor and that Purple Rookie Bastard) rushed for more and better than Grant in 2007.

—Ryan Grant tied for ninth in rushing touchdowns by a running back and tied for 24th rushing+receiving touchdowns overall in 2007. That's above average.

—Salary: The guy right after Grant in 2007 yards (898), Tampa Bay's Earnest Graham (http://www.rotoworld.com/content/clubhouse_contracts.aspx?sport=NFL&majteam=TB), signed a 4 year, $11.05 million contract. The guy right above him, Dallas' Marion Barber (http://www.rotoworld.com/content/clubhouse_contracts.aspx?sport=NFL&majteam=DAL) (975), is earning $45 million over 7 years. The only guy above him that I think is earning less than Grant's new contract is the Giants' Brandon Jacobs (http://www.rotoworld.com/content/clubhouse_contracts.aspx?sport=NFL&majteam=NYG)(1,009), who'll earn just under $1 million in 2008, the final year of his contract.

I think we've kept a good back in Ryan Grant. He's got areas where he can improve (the screen game and power runs), but he's a good guy for a good deal. He seems to be smart, and if we can keep glass coffee tables off the sidelines, he should hopefully stay healthy.

[texaspackerbacker]

Thank you. That's what I've been saying. There aren't more than a couple of backs in the whole NFL that are as good or better than Grant.

The burst he showed is unique. Even Tomlinson doesn't have it--although he is shiftier, and probably slightly better all around. Peterson shows probably equal burst with Grant with better lateral moves. Beyond that, I don't see anybody else on the same level as Grant.

[Rastak]

Thank you. That's what I've been saying. There aren't more than a couple of backs in the whole NFL that are as good or better than Grant.

The burst he showed is unique. Even Tomlinson doesn't have it--although he is shiftier, and probably slightly better all around. Peterson shows probably equal burst with Grant with better lateral moves. Beyond that, I don't see anybody else on the same level as Grant.


I really liked what Grant showed last year, but if he was the best in the league, or near the best, why was he on a practice squad, ever? Why did no one sign him off said practice squad? Why was he not the Giants starter? I think you might be overstating things a bit, not that you ever do that Tex. Give the guy a couple seasons and we'll see what he's got. I'd say despite his age he's a great prospect right now.

[NewsBruin]

The Giants may just have had a great running back stable. Tiki was there for so long, and Ahmad Bradshaw, Derrick Ward, Brandon Jacobs, and Reuben Droughns have either had good production or name recognition. It hurt Grant that he didn't have great stats at Notre Dame, but he also endured a coaching changeover with two HCs (Davie/Willingham) who didn't do particularly well there. He played in Julius Jones' shadow and split time his senior year with future Texans' UFA Darius Walker (whom he should have clearly beat out).

Some of the numbers I found (like the yards/attempt) surprised me. I didn't expect to see no back get 1,500 yards in 2007.

I think the other hard thing to keep in perspective is the way the market shifts. The "average" pay for a running back shot up while I was asleep, and it really surprises me what someone could get in the open market.

Again, I really like our contract. There's no guaranteed money, there's performance clauses, and there's enough up-front cash to take financial concerns out of Grant's (and his agent's) head. I hope this frees him up to play as well as he has in 2007.

[Fritz]

Thank you. That's what I've been saying. There aren't more than a couple of backs in the whole NFL that are as good or better than Grant.

The burst he showed is unique. Even Tomlinson doesn't have it--although he is shiftier, and probably slightly better all around. Peterson shows probably equal burst with Grant with better lateral moves. Beyond that, I don't see anybody else on the same level as Grant.


I really liked what Grant showed last year, but if he was the best in the league, or near the best, why was he on a practice squad, ever? Why did no one sign him off said practice squad? Why was he not the Giants starter? I think you might be overstating things a bit, not that you ever do that Tex. Give the guy a couple seasons and we'll see what he's got. I'd say despite his age he's a great prospect right now.

I'm kinda with ya on this one, Ras. I used to be a big believer in the possibility of great talent being found on practice squads, but then Bill Schroeder happened and I learned my lesson.

I don't know what to think of Grant yet. That fumbling thing bugs me. We'll see.

[texaspackerbacker]

I don't think Bill Schroeder ever did it on the field like Grant did.

It's possible Grant got lost in the shuffle/didn't get the opportunity to show what he could do with the Giants. I don't know.

Rastak, you're right, I wouldn't shy away from a little bit of good ol' overstatement to make a point. This, however, is more a matter of solid fact, albeit based on hindsight--I can't claim to have predicted Grant's success ahead of time any more than anybody else. But looking back on the past season, he was what he was--and that's NOT overstatement.

I also don't think it's overstatement to say that Grant is the number one key to Packer success this season--even more than Rodgers.

[Fosco33]

Grant seems like a guy with potential.

He never took the brunt of starts in college (2 years where he shared time, one year of starts) then another 2 years of nothing (practice squad, non-football injury). So think of him as a 25 yr old in a 21 yr old body. Which is very important as RBs have a very short career to make an impact and money compared to other positions.

I'm hopefull that he has a breakout year by having lots of prep time with the team/players/scheme/etc. If he can take NFL punishment for the entire year, finish w/ 1200+ yards rushing and another 400 in receiving with 12 TDs - I'd say he's above average. Time will have to tell.

[Pacopete4]

I agree.. there is very little wear and tear on that body.. which is one of the more important things for a RB

[Partial]

Too soon to tell.

[MadtownPacker]

Bottom line, Grant is a home run threat. Once he is gone he isn't getting caught. That is why he is worth the $$$ IMO. Grant was in the middle of all the stats cuz have only played half the season. His yards per carry probably dropped with all the 1-2 yd plays he seemed to have that didnt pan out. But once he breaks through he just hits the endzone. If he can pick up where he left off last season he will be a steal.

[mmmdk]

Thank you. That's what I've been saying. There aren't more than a couple of backs in the whole NFL that are as good or better than Grant.

The burst he showed is unique. Even Tomlinson doesn't have it--although he is shiftier, and probably slightly better all around. Peterson shows probably equal burst with Grant with better lateral moves. Beyond that, I don't see anybody else on the same level as Grant.


I really liked what Grant showed last year, but if he was the best in the league, or near the best, why was he on a practice squad, ever? Why did no one sign him off said practice squad? Why was he not the Giants starter? I think you might be overstating things a bit, not that you ever do that Tex. Give the guy a couple seasons and we'll see what he's got. I'd say despite his age he's a great prospect right now.

Why didn't Packers keep Kurt Warner - a future MVP, Super bowl champ!? 'Cos then we'd have two oldies but goodies :lol: I guess coaches / scouts are human.

[Zool]

Grant was only on the PS as an undrafted FA. Second year he tore open an artery in his arm and was out for the season. Last year, the Giants had Brandon Jacobs, Ahmad Bradshaw, Derrick Ward and Reuben Droughns at the RB spot. They had to cut someone. Plus dont the Giants play a power I type running game?

Giants had too many backs, Packers play a ZBS and Grant looks like a quality zone runner. It just worked out. Had he gone to a team with a power setup, he might not have done anything last year.

[Lurker64]

—Salary: The guy right after Grant in 2007 yards (898), Tampa Bay's Earnest Graham (http://www.rotoworld.com/content/clubhouse_contracts.aspx?sport=NFL&majteam=TB), signed a 4 year, $11.05 million contract. The guy right above him, Dallas' Marion Barber (http://www.rotoworld.com/content/clubhouse_contracts.aspx?sport=NFL&majteam=DAL) (975), is earning $45 million over 7 years. The only guy above him that I think is earning less than Grant's new contract is the Giants' Brandon Jacobs (http://www.rotoworld.com/content/clubhouse_contracts.aspx?sport=NFL&majteam=NYG)(1,009), who'll earn just under $1 million in 2008, the final year of his contract.

The important difference here is that none of those guys were 3-years away from unrestricted free agency when they signed those contracts. That certainly affected Grant's value when signing a contract.

[The Leaper]

Grant is a very good running back...but he has limitations. I'm not sure he will ever be a great receiver out of the backfield, or a premium pass blocker. He is the kind of RB who can be logically replaced with someone else on 3rd down.

As just a runner, the guy has a chance to be one of the top 5 in the league without a doubt.

[Pacopete4]

Leaper, I think you are dead on right there.. the nice thing about that right now is that it sounds like Brandon Jackson will turn into a very good RB too and we know he can make a lotta plays coming outta the backfield

[oregonpackfan]

Grant is a very good running back...but he has limitations. I'm not sure he will ever be a great receiver out of the backfield, or a premium pass blocker. He is the kind of RB who can be logically replaced with someone else on 3rd down.

As just a runner, the guy has a chance to be one of the top 5 in the league without a doubt.

I agree with Leaper's assessment of Grant. He is definitely superior than an "average" running back.

What is more important is the quality of the blocking by the offensive line.

I would much rather have a strong offensive line with an average running back than a weak offensive line with a strong running back. The running game with the former will gain more yards on the ground than the weak line with a strong running back.

[Scott Campbell]

I really liked what Grant showed last year, but if he was the best in the league, or near the best, why was he on a practice squad, ever? Why did no one sign him off said practice squad? Why was he not the Giants starter? I think you might be overstating things a bit, not that you ever do that Tex.



......see Dorsey Levens.


Grant is the real deal.

[Harlan Huckleby]

i like that his deal is heavily incentive laden.

10 games is not enough to establish a running back as a top tier player.

[NewsBruin]

For the salary escalators to kick in, Grant would have to rush more this year or next than any player rushed this past year. I think most of us would nod to that.

[SnakeLH2006]

As far as home run threats, Grant is an upper-echelon back for sure. As far short yardage consistency, one of the worst so far. Regardless, of what we think, Grant is no longer an "average" RB in the paycheck.

Does anyone have a breakdown of what Grant's 4 year deal is worth at minimum (if he doesn't meet the loaded incentives)?

[Pugger]

I don't think Grant is 'average' either. If B. Jax is coming along I say 'great'! In our Super Bowl years we had 2 good backs too. :pack: