HarveyWallbangers
04-04-2006, 11:53 AM
Big-name QBs sliding as pro-day workouts wrap up
Don Banks, SI.com
Early April is when it's time to get serious about the NFL Draft. That's when conventional wisdom starts to make its presence felt and a player's stock can rise and fall seemingly on a weekly basis.
Players such as USC offensive tackle Winston Justice, Florida State linebacker Ernie Sims, and out-of-nowhere Ohio State safety Donte Whitner are on the rise. The flip side? That would be the fate currently befalling the once lofty reputations of USC running back LenDale White, Penn State defensive end Tamba Hali and Alabama linebacker DeMeco Ryans, who continue to fade.
And there's plenty more movement to come. In our fourth mock draft, we merely set the table for the onslaught of speculation, analysis and conjecture that will unfold in the next three-plus weeks.
Pick Team Pos. Player College Class Ht. Wt.
1 RB Reggie Bush USC Jr. 6-0 200
At Sunday's USC pro day workout, Bush didn't do anything but solidify his perch atop the draft, ripping off a 4.33 40-yard dash and topping 40 inches in the vertical jump. Don't out-think yourself on this one, Texans. Take the special player and be thankful you didn't have the 49ers' top-pick fate of last year.
2 DE Mario Williams N.C. State Jr. 6-7 285
Having bagged their quarterback in free agency, the Saints now can sit back and wait to see how much their No. 2 pick is worth on the open market. If nobody wants to deal badly enough, the book says pass rushers (Williams) are always more valuable than offensive tackles (D'Brickashaw Ferguson).
3 QB Matt Leinart USC Sr. 6-5 225
With ex-USC offensive coordinator Norm Chow now in Nashville, can the Titans pass on Leinart in favor of Vanderbilt's Jay Cutler? Probably not, but don't be shocked if they talk themselves into taking the hometown product, or entertain trading down for a package of picks (from Minnesota?).
4 OT D'Brickashaw Ferguson Virginia Sr. 6-5 295
With Patrick Ramsey acquired via trade, the Jets can avoid the first-round quarterback crap shoot and go with the top-rated prospect on their board. That's going to either be Ferguson or Williams, depending on what the Saints do at No. 2.
5 LB A.J. Hawk Ohio State Sr. 6-1 240
The Packers signed defensive tackle Ryan Pickett in free agency, lessening their need for Haloti Ngata, the Oregon run-stuffer. But another play-maker in the defensive front seven would further upgrade a unit that has already received plenty of attention this offseason.
6 TE Vernon Davis Maryland Jr. 6-3 250
We can't think of a better way to aid in the development of second-year franchise quarterback Alex Smith than a cornerstone left tackle to protect his backside for the foreseeable future.
7 DB Michael Huff Texas Sr. 6-1 205
The Raiders recently signed veteran Aaron Brooks and last year drafted quarterback-of-the-future Andrew Walter in the third round. Can a team with so many needs still invest in the Vince Young project? Not likely. Huff fits because he's versatile and he plays the tough, hard-hitting style the Raiders once prided themselves on.
8 DT Haloti Ngata Oregon Jr. 6-5 345
The Bills added defensive tackle Larry Tripplett in free agency, but still need another run-stopper in the middle. Ngata isn't a finished product, but he's the best space-eater this draft has to offer.
9 CB Jimmy Williams Virginia Tech Sr. 6-3 216
Despite signing both Jon Kitna and Josh McCown in free agency, the Lions could be tempted by the still-available Vince Young or Jay Cutler. But after going for offense in the first round so often in recent years, with meager results, Detroit should think defense and take the draft's highest-rated cover man.
10 QB Vince Young Texas Jr. 6-5 235
The Cardinals extended Kurt Warner's contract because head coach Dennis Green needs to win now. But if Young is still on the board, Green could be intrigued enough to take him, with the hope that Green and his staff are still around when Young's development is complete in a couple of years. USC offensive tackle Winston Justice is another name to watch for.
11 QB Jay Cutler Vanderbilt Sr. 6-4 228
The Rams aren't considered a quarterback-needy team, but Marc Bulger isn't exactly an iron man back there, and new head coach Scott Linehan might want to groom a guy who doesn't have the imprint of Mike Martz on him. Cutler would be a solid value in this slot.
12 LB Ernie Sims Florida State Jr. 6-0 220
Sims seems to be shooting up everyone's board, and he's exactly the play-making presence the Browns are looking for in their 3-4 defense. Penn State defensive end Tamba Hali is another possibility here, but Sims seems to have the edge in that he can impact a game in more ways from his outside linebacker position.
13 DT Brodrick Bunkley Florida State Sr. 6-3 284
Bunkley continues to look like a top 15 pick in the wake of his impressive combine workout (44 bench press reps, 4.97 time in the 40 at 307 pounds). The Ravens lost underrated DT Maake Kemoeatu to Carolina in free agency, and Bunkley would fill that vacancy rather nicely.
14 WR Chad Jackson Florida Jr. 6-1 205
Giving the Eagles USC offensive tackle Winston Justice would make sense, too, even though they re-signed veteran tackle Jon Runyan. But it's hard to see Philly's offense matching up with the likes of their NFC East rivals without a No. 1 receiver who can at least compare to Terrell Owens, Santana Moss and Plaxico Burress.
15 RB DeAngelo Williams Memphis Sr. 5-10 217
The Broncos got this pick from Atlanta in the John Abraham deal, and it should put them into prime position to fill their need at either receiver (Ohio State's Santonio Holmes?) or running back. Williams' strong pro-day workout has cemented his status as the draft's No. 2 back behind Bush.
16 OT Winston Justice USC Jr. 6-6 300
The Dolphins could opt to address needs at cornerback (Clemson's Tye Hill or South Carolina's Johnathan Joseph) or receiver (Ohio State's Santonio Holmes). But Justice is too highly rated to pass up. He had a stellar pro-day workout over the weekend and some are predicting he could crack the top 10.
17 CB Tye Hill Clemson Sr. 5-10 184
The Vikings have the ammo to move up in the first round in pursuit of a franchise quarterback like Cutler, maybe to No. 10 Arizona. But if they stay put, getting depth for their secondary, where they lost third cornerback Brian Williams in free agency, is the logical choice.
18 S Donte Whitner Ohio State Jr. 5-10 205
Whitner is a newcomer to our board, but the Buckeyes junior has risen on the strength of running a pair of blazing 40s (4.37 and 4.39) during Ohio State's pro day. The Cowboys already got their No. 1 receiver in Terrell Owens, and just missed out on their offensive tackle of choice (USC's Justice).
19 WR Santonio Holmes Ohio State Jr. 5-11 190
You have to think general manager A.J. Smith wants to give quarterback Philip Rivers the best possible chance to succeed, given that Smith has staked his reputation on him and sent Drew Brees packing. Getting Rivers another receiving target should be Smith's top priority.
20 CB Johnathan Joseph South Carolina Sr. 5-11 187
In a first round that is suddenly silly with defensive backs, the Chiefs should have their choice between Joseph, Ohio State's Ashton Youboty, and Florida State's Antonio Cromartie. If there's one constant in the NFL, it's that K.C. never has enough pass defense.
21 LB Chad Greenway Iowa Sr. 6-4 244
The Patriots have options galore. They could take the tumbling LenDale White or Minnesota's Laurence Maroney as the heir apparent to Corey Dillon. They could reach a bit for Miami's Sinorice Moss, whose versatility as a receiver/return man would come in handy. But Greenway or Ohio State LB Bobby Carpenter fill the biggest need.
22 WR Sinorice Moss Miami Sr. 5-8 185
Having landed their running back at No. 15 in DeAngelo Williams, the Broncos are free to use their second No. 1 pick on a receiver. If Denver thinks defensive end, Penn State's Tamba Hali, Boston College's Mathias Kiwanuka or FSU's Kamerion Wimbley could get the nod.
23 CB Antonio Cromartie Florida State Jr. 6-2 210
Cromartie remains a question mark on some boards, because he missed all of 2005 with a knee injury. But he ran two 40s in the 4.3 range, jumped 42 inches vertically and has shown enough potential to find his way into this section of the first round.
24 TE Marcedes Lewis UCLA Sr. 6-6 255
The Sam Adams signing addressed the Bengals' need at defensive tackle, at least in the short term. And safety got some help when Dexter Jackson was acquired. That leaves the Bengals in good shape to pick between tight ends Lewis and Georgia's Leonard Pope.
25 LB Bobby Carpenter Ohio State Sr. 6-3 255
Depending on what New York does in the LaVar Arrington bidding, linebacker might slide a bit further down the need list. But Carpenter is head coach Tom Coughlin's type of solid, dependable player, and the Giants always love those Big Ten prospects.
26 TE Leonard Pope Georgia Jr. 6-7 258
With no more receivers first-round worthy, the Bears wisely address their need at tight end. If the Bengals go Pope, the Bears will nab Lewis. And vice versa. USC tight end Dominique Byrd is another possibility.
27 RB Laurence Maroney Minnesota Jr. 5-11 205
Don't make the mistake of assuming that by re-signing DeShaun Foster the Panthers are out of the running for a first-round running back. Foster's injury history demands the position receive more attention. Maroney looks like a steal this low in the first round.
28 DE Tamba Hali Penn State Sr. 6-3 267
On our board, the Jaguars have their pick of three pretty good defensive end prospects: Hali, who has tumbled some of late, Florida State's Kamerion Wimbley, whose stock is rising and Boston College's Mathias Kiwanuka, who has held fairly steady as a bottom-third first-round selection. Hali's probably the safest of the three.
29 RB LenDale White USC Jr. 6-2 235
White may not fall this far, but after showing up at the Trojans' pro day at a squishy 244 pounds, not running, and doing just 15 reps, there's nobody who has him cracking the top 20 about now. But at No. 29, he'd be worth taking to play in tandem with the aging Curtis Martin.
30 RB Joseph Addai LSU Sr. 5-11 214
With the big four running backs all gone, the Colts might be looking at the somewhat surprising Addai as a replacement for Edgerrin James. Addai could sneak into the bottom of the first round based on his impressive 40 times in the 4.4 range at the combine.
31 DE Kamerion Wimbley Florida State Sr. 6-4 250
Wimbley or Boston College's Mathias Kiwanuka could be the situational pass rusher the Seahawks need. Both players might need some time to develop into fulltime starters, but have enough potential to justify a late-first round pick. Georgia guard Max Jean-Gilles is a possible replacement for Steve Huchinson.
32 C Nick Mangold Ohio State Sr. 6-4 300
With Antwaan Randle El lost in free agency as expected, the Steelers would like an impact receiver. But they won't reach for one in this slot if the top three prospects (Jackson, Holmes and Moss) are all gone. Give them Mangold, because veteran center Jeff Hartings will be 34 in September.
Don Banks, SI.com
Early April is when it's time to get serious about the NFL Draft. That's when conventional wisdom starts to make its presence felt and a player's stock can rise and fall seemingly on a weekly basis.
Players such as USC offensive tackle Winston Justice, Florida State linebacker Ernie Sims, and out-of-nowhere Ohio State safety Donte Whitner are on the rise. The flip side? That would be the fate currently befalling the once lofty reputations of USC running back LenDale White, Penn State defensive end Tamba Hali and Alabama linebacker DeMeco Ryans, who continue to fade.
And there's plenty more movement to come. In our fourth mock draft, we merely set the table for the onslaught of speculation, analysis and conjecture that will unfold in the next three-plus weeks.
Pick Team Pos. Player College Class Ht. Wt.
1 RB Reggie Bush USC Jr. 6-0 200
At Sunday's USC pro day workout, Bush didn't do anything but solidify his perch atop the draft, ripping off a 4.33 40-yard dash and topping 40 inches in the vertical jump. Don't out-think yourself on this one, Texans. Take the special player and be thankful you didn't have the 49ers' top-pick fate of last year.
2 DE Mario Williams N.C. State Jr. 6-7 285
Having bagged their quarterback in free agency, the Saints now can sit back and wait to see how much their No. 2 pick is worth on the open market. If nobody wants to deal badly enough, the book says pass rushers (Williams) are always more valuable than offensive tackles (D'Brickashaw Ferguson).
3 QB Matt Leinart USC Sr. 6-5 225
With ex-USC offensive coordinator Norm Chow now in Nashville, can the Titans pass on Leinart in favor of Vanderbilt's Jay Cutler? Probably not, but don't be shocked if they talk themselves into taking the hometown product, or entertain trading down for a package of picks (from Minnesota?).
4 OT D'Brickashaw Ferguson Virginia Sr. 6-5 295
With Patrick Ramsey acquired via trade, the Jets can avoid the first-round quarterback crap shoot and go with the top-rated prospect on their board. That's going to either be Ferguson or Williams, depending on what the Saints do at No. 2.
5 LB A.J. Hawk Ohio State Sr. 6-1 240
The Packers signed defensive tackle Ryan Pickett in free agency, lessening their need for Haloti Ngata, the Oregon run-stuffer. But another play-maker in the defensive front seven would further upgrade a unit that has already received plenty of attention this offseason.
6 TE Vernon Davis Maryland Jr. 6-3 250
We can't think of a better way to aid in the development of second-year franchise quarterback Alex Smith than a cornerstone left tackle to protect his backside for the foreseeable future.
7 DB Michael Huff Texas Sr. 6-1 205
The Raiders recently signed veteran Aaron Brooks and last year drafted quarterback-of-the-future Andrew Walter in the third round. Can a team with so many needs still invest in the Vince Young project? Not likely. Huff fits because he's versatile and he plays the tough, hard-hitting style the Raiders once prided themselves on.
8 DT Haloti Ngata Oregon Jr. 6-5 345
The Bills added defensive tackle Larry Tripplett in free agency, but still need another run-stopper in the middle. Ngata isn't a finished product, but he's the best space-eater this draft has to offer.
9 CB Jimmy Williams Virginia Tech Sr. 6-3 216
Despite signing both Jon Kitna and Josh McCown in free agency, the Lions could be tempted by the still-available Vince Young or Jay Cutler. But after going for offense in the first round so often in recent years, with meager results, Detroit should think defense and take the draft's highest-rated cover man.
10 QB Vince Young Texas Jr. 6-5 235
The Cardinals extended Kurt Warner's contract because head coach Dennis Green needs to win now. But if Young is still on the board, Green could be intrigued enough to take him, with the hope that Green and his staff are still around when Young's development is complete in a couple of years. USC offensive tackle Winston Justice is another name to watch for.
11 QB Jay Cutler Vanderbilt Sr. 6-4 228
The Rams aren't considered a quarterback-needy team, but Marc Bulger isn't exactly an iron man back there, and new head coach Scott Linehan might want to groom a guy who doesn't have the imprint of Mike Martz on him. Cutler would be a solid value in this slot.
12 LB Ernie Sims Florida State Jr. 6-0 220
Sims seems to be shooting up everyone's board, and he's exactly the play-making presence the Browns are looking for in their 3-4 defense. Penn State defensive end Tamba Hali is another possibility here, but Sims seems to have the edge in that he can impact a game in more ways from his outside linebacker position.
13 DT Brodrick Bunkley Florida State Sr. 6-3 284
Bunkley continues to look like a top 15 pick in the wake of his impressive combine workout (44 bench press reps, 4.97 time in the 40 at 307 pounds). The Ravens lost underrated DT Maake Kemoeatu to Carolina in free agency, and Bunkley would fill that vacancy rather nicely.
14 WR Chad Jackson Florida Jr. 6-1 205
Giving the Eagles USC offensive tackle Winston Justice would make sense, too, even though they re-signed veteran tackle Jon Runyan. But it's hard to see Philly's offense matching up with the likes of their NFC East rivals without a No. 1 receiver who can at least compare to Terrell Owens, Santana Moss and Plaxico Burress.
15 RB DeAngelo Williams Memphis Sr. 5-10 217
The Broncos got this pick from Atlanta in the John Abraham deal, and it should put them into prime position to fill their need at either receiver (Ohio State's Santonio Holmes?) or running back. Williams' strong pro-day workout has cemented his status as the draft's No. 2 back behind Bush.
16 OT Winston Justice USC Jr. 6-6 300
The Dolphins could opt to address needs at cornerback (Clemson's Tye Hill or South Carolina's Johnathan Joseph) or receiver (Ohio State's Santonio Holmes). But Justice is too highly rated to pass up. He had a stellar pro-day workout over the weekend and some are predicting he could crack the top 10.
17 CB Tye Hill Clemson Sr. 5-10 184
The Vikings have the ammo to move up in the first round in pursuit of a franchise quarterback like Cutler, maybe to No. 10 Arizona. But if they stay put, getting depth for their secondary, where they lost third cornerback Brian Williams in free agency, is the logical choice.
18 S Donte Whitner Ohio State Jr. 5-10 205
Whitner is a newcomer to our board, but the Buckeyes junior has risen on the strength of running a pair of blazing 40s (4.37 and 4.39) during Ohio State's pro day. The Cowboys already got their No. 1 receiver in Terrell Owens, and just missed out on their offensive tackle of choice (USC's Justice).
19 WR Santonio Holmes Ohio State Jr. 5-11 190
You have to think general manager A.J. Smith wants to give quarterback Philip Rivers the best possible chance to succeed, given that Smith has staked his reputation on him and sent Drew Brees packing. Getting Rivers another receiving target should be Smith's top priority.
20 CB Johnathan Joseph South Carolina Sr. 5-11 187
In a first round that is suddenly silly with defensive backs, the Chiefs should have their choice between Joseph, Ohio State's Ashton Youboty, and Florida State's Antonio Cromartie. If there's one constant in the NFL, it's that K.C. never has enough pass defense.
21 LB Chad Greenway Iowa Sr. 6-4 244
The Patriots have options galore. They could take the tumbling LenDale White or Minnesota's Laurence Maroney as the heir apparent to Corey Dillon. They could reach a bit for Miami's Sinorice Moss, whose versatility as a receiver/return man would come in handy. But Greenway or Ohio State LB Bobby Carpenter fill the biggest need.
22 WR Sinorice Moss Miami Sr. 5-8 185
Having landed their running back at No. 15 in DeAngelo Williams, the Broncos are free to use their second No. 1 pick on a receiver. If Denver thinks defensive end, Penn State's Tamba Hali, Boston College's Mathias Kiwanuka or FSU's Kamerion Wimbley could get the nod.
23 CB Antonio Cromartie Florida State Jr. 6-2 210
Cromartie remains a question mark on some boards, because he missed all of 2005 with a knee injury. But he ran two 40s in the 4.3 range, jumped 42 inches vertically and has shown enough potential to find his way into this section of the first round.
24 TE Marcedes Lewis UCLA Sr. 6-6 255
The Sam Adams signing addressed the Bengals' need at defensive tackle, at least in the short term. And safety got some help when Dexter Jackson was acquired. That leaves the Bengals in good shape to pick between tight ends Lewis and Georgia's Leonard Pope.
25 LB Bobby Carpenter Ohio State Sr. 6-3 255
Depending on what New York does in the LaVar Arrington bidding, linebacker might slide a bit further down the need list. But Carpenter is head coach Tom Coughlin's type of solid, dependable player, and the Giants always love those Big Ten prospects.
26 TE Leonard Pope Georgia Jr. 6-7 258
With no more receivers first-round worthy, the Bears wisely address their need at tight end. If the Bengals go Pope, the Bears will nab Lewis. And vice versa. USC tight end Dominique Byrd is another possibility.
27 RB Laurence Maroney Minnesota Jr. 5-11 205
Don't make the mistake of assuming that by re-signing DeShaun Foster the Panthers are out of the running for a first-round running back. Foster's injury history demands the position receive more attention. Maroney looks like a steal this low in the first round.
28 DE Tamba Hali Penn State Sr. 6-3 267
On our board, the Jaguars have their pick of three pretty good defensive end prospects: Hali, who has tumbled some of late, Florida State's Kamerion Wimbley, whose stock is rising and Boston College's Mathias Kiwanuka, who has held fairly steady as a bottom-third first-round selection. Hali's probably the safest of the three.
29 RB LenDale White USC Jr. 6-2 235
White may not fall this far, but after showing up at the Trojans' pro day at a squishy 244 pounds, not running, and doing just 15 reps, there's nobody who has him cracking the top 20 about now. But at No. 29, he'd be worth taking to play in tandem with the aging Curtis Martin.
30 RB Joseph Addai LSU Sr. 5-11 214
With the big four running backs all gone, the Colts might be looking at the somewhat surprising Addai as a replacement for Edgerrin James. Addai could sneak into the bottom of the first round based on his impressive 40 times in the 4.4 range at the combine.
31 DE Kamerion Wimbley Florida State Sr. 6-4 250
Wimbley or Boston College's Mathias Kiwanuka could be the situational pass rusher the Seahawks need. Both players might need some time to develop into fulltime starters, but have enough potential to justify a late-first round pick. Georgia guard Max Jean-Gilles is a possible replacement for Steve Huchinson.
32 C Nick Mangold Ohio State Sr. 6-4 300
With Antwaan Randle El lost in free agency as expected, the Steelers would like an impact receiver. But they won't reach for one in this slot if the top three prospects (Jackson, Holmes and Moss) are all gone. Give them Mangold, because veteran center Jeff Hartings will be 34 in September.