Poland "cannot go unpunished"

[Harlan Huckleby]

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/15/world/europe/16poland.html

WASHINGTON — The United States and Poland reached a long-stalled deal on Thursday to place an American missile defense base on Polish territory, in the strongest reaction so far to Russia’s military operation in Georgia.

Russia reacted angrily, saying that the move would worsen relations with the United States that have already been strained severely in the week since Russian troops entered separatist enclaves in Georgia, a close American ally. At a news conference on Friday, a senior Russian defense official, Col. Gen. Anatoly Nogovitsyn, suggested that Poland was making itself a target by agreeing to host the anti-missile system. Such an action “cannot go unpunished,” he said.

[Harlan Huckleby]

I saw an eye-opening discussion on Russia on the news:

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/europe/july-dec08/russiangoal_08-14.html

This is what the pro-Russian expert said about recent Russian actions:

"Please put the actions of Russia into the context of the recent development. And when I say recent, I mean -- I go back as 1990, 1989 and 1990, when promises were made to Mr. Gorbachev, then the president of the Soviet Union, that NATO will never expand beyond Germany.

Yet what we've been seeing in the last few years, that not only Eastern Europe, Eastern European countries, former countries of the Warsaw bloc were invited into NATO, but, you know, we've been seeing recently the almost pressure or intense desire on the part of the United States to bring into the realm of NATO of Ukraine and Georgia and, in the case of Ukraine, against the will of the population -- majority of the population of Ukraine.

And what do we expect from Russia? How do we expect Russia to react? So that context is very important.

Russia is angry, irritated, and it says, by the action in Georgia, it's time to stop patronizing us and it's time to start to listen to our concerns."

[BallHawk]

I'm going to get working on my fallout shelter.....

[Harlan Huckleby]

I think we are up shits creek. The Russians apparently view the integration of the countries of the former Soviet Union sphere into Europe as illegitimate. ( Poland, Georgia, the Baltic countries, former Czech Republic, etc.) They are mad that those Eastern European countries are candidates to join the European Union. They consider NATO expansion to those countries as an act of war.

Ukraine is on track to join NATO. I heard that the Russians may invade under the pretext of restoring regions of the Ukraine (the Crimea) to Russia. They are threatening to Georgify them too.

I'm afraid the cold war is back on. Except this time, Western Europe is dependent on Russia for energy, they may just appease Russian aggression.

WE're back in US, back in the US, back in the USSR.

[hoosier]

I think we are up shits creek. The Russians apparently view the integration of the countries of the former Soviet Union sphere into Europe as illegitimate. ( Poland, Georgia, the Baltic countries, former Czech Republic, etc.) They are mad that those Eastern European countries are candidates to join the European Union. They consider NATO expansion to those countries as an act of war.

Ukraine is on track to join NATO. I heard that the Russians may invade under the pretext of restoring regions of the Ukraine (the Crimea) to Russia. They are threatening to Georgify them too.

I'm afraid the cold war is back on. Except this time, Western Europe is dependent on Russia for energy, they may just appease Russian aggression.

WE're back in US, back in the US, back in the USSR.

I don't think the Cold War "analogy" really works. There are so many differences between today and the US/USSR conflict pre-1989: ideology plays little if any role in the present context, there is no struggle to win over minds and souls in the Third World, and if the two powers could somehow agree to create a buffer zone between them (which may be logistically impossible given how communication technology works today)--effectively staking out two imperial domains that don't threaten each other's existence--then there would seem to be no reason they couldn't peacefully coexist. In other words, the US/NATO stops trying to incorporate former Soviet bloc countries, and Russia agrees to stop behaving like an enraged bear.

If you buy the argument that Russia is responding to Western incursions on what used to be its backyard, the interesting question is, Why now? NATO has been making inroads into Easter Europe since the early 1990s, so why did it take Russia almost 20 years to "react"? Is it because its economic future is rosier now than it was for most of the last two decades?

[Harlan Huckleby]

There are so many differences between today and the US/USSR conflict pre-1989: ideology plays little if any role in the present context,

But ideology was just a thin veneer back then, especially in eastern europe. It was mostly about power. Empires always seek to dominate countries on their edges under the pretext of creating a buffer. And the buffer keeps moving out.



In other words, the US/NATO stops trying to incorporate former Soviet bloc countries, and Russia agrees to stop behaving like an enraged bear.

Hell no! If Poland wants to be part of Europe, and not be bullied by Russia, that is their right. Same goes for Georgia, or any other free people. And its not just NATO, the Russians also don't want Eastern Europe to integrate economically with the EU.

Do you really think you can throw the angry bear a few scraps of meat, and then they'll play nice? What if the bear is hungry for Lithuania - you gonna sell out those people?


If you buy the argument that Russia is responding to Western incursions on what used to be its backyard, the interesting question is, Why now? NATO has been making inroads into Easter Europe since the early 1990s, so why did it take Russia almost 20 years to "react"?

The answer is obvious. Russia was in dissarray in the 1990's. Russia has refurbished their military. And most importantly, they have HUGE leverage now over Europe with the tightening market for natural gas and oil.

[BallHawk]

I fear there will be an outbreak of Neville Chamberlain Syndrome.....

[Scott Campbell]

And most importantly, they have HUGE leverage now over Europe with the tightening market for natural gas and oil.



They are also flush with money now because of oil, as opposed to the financially neutered Russia we dealt with back in the late 80's.



Time to start drilling.

[BallHawk]

I fear there will be an outbreak of Neville Chamberlain Syndrome.....

Speaking of.....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YK0d8ENS__c&feature=related

The biggest destruction of anybody on any political talk show ever.

[Tyrone Bigguns]

I'm going to get working on my fallout shelter.....

Yes we're gonna have a wingding
A summer smoker underground
It's just a dugout that my dad built
In case the reds decide to push the button down
We've got provisions and lots of beer
The key word is survival on the new frontier

[Iron Mike]

I'm going to get working on my fallout shelter.....

Yes we're gonna have a wingding
A summer smoker underground
It's just a dugout that my dad built
In case the reds decide to push the button down
We've got provisions and lots of beer
The key word is survival on the new frontier

It's OK for you to be 1 1/2 months behind me, J.

http://www.packerrats.com/ratchat/viewtopic.php?p=282054#282054

[Freak Out]

And most importantly, they have HUGE leverage now over Europe with the tightening market for natural gas and oil.



They are also flush with money now because of oil, as opposed to the financially neutered Russia we dealt with back in the late 80's.



Time to start drilling.

For natural gas baby. Please start hammering your good for nothing congressional delegations to back another Alaskan pipeline for natural gas. We have enough gas to power our vehicles, power plants and homes with the north American gas reserves for many years.

[Iron Mike]

And most importantly, they have HUGE leverage now over Europe with the tightening market for natural gas and oil.



They are also flush with money now because of oil, as opposed to the financially neutered Russia we dealt with back in the late 80's.



Time to start drilling.

For natural gas baby. Please start hammering your good for nothing congressional delegations to back another Alaskan pipeline for natural gas. We have enough gas to power our vehicles, power plants and homes with the north American gas reserves for many years.




This Guy (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gg3A9IPkvS0) has enough gas to power all of that. :whaa:

[Tyrone Bigguns]

I'm going to get working on my fallout shelter.....

Yes we're gonna have a wingding
A summer smoker underground
It's just a dugout that my dad built
In case the reds decide to push the button down
We've got provisions and lots of beer
The key word is survival on the new frontier

It's OK for you to be 1 1/2 months behind me, J.

http://www.packerrats.com/ratchat/viewtopic.php?p=282054#282054

Finding lyrics applicable is much different than spamming the music thread with every artist known to man. :lol:


J?

[Scott Campbell]

And most importantly, they have HUGE leverage now over Europe with the tightening market for natural gas and oil.



They are also flush with money now because of oil, as opposed to the financially neutered Russia we dealt with back in the late 80's.



Time to start drilling.

For natural gas baby. Please start hammering your good for nothing congressional delegations to back another Alaskan pipeline for natural gas. We have enough gas to power our vehicles, power plants and homes with the north American gas reserves for many years.



Utah has the lowest natural gas prices in the nation, in part because there is no road tax on it. You can fill up a natural gas vehicle for about $7. And they burn clean too. Honda makes a factory natural gas Civic. I think everything else is a spendy retrofit.

[Freak Out]

And most importantly, they have HUGE leverage now over Europe with the tightening market for natural gas and oil.



They are also flush with money now because of oil, as opposed to the financially neutered Russia we dealt with back in the late 80's.



Time to start drilling.

For natural gas baby. Please start hammering your good for nothing congressional delegations to back another Alaskan pipeline for natural gas. We have enough gas to power our vehicles, power plants and homes with the north American gas reserves for many years.



Utah has the lowest natural gas prices in the nation, in part because there is no road tax on it. You can fill up a natural gas vehicle for about $7. And they burn clean too. Honda makes a factory natural gas Civic. I think everything else is a spendy retrofit.

Honda makes a great Nat Gas car but there is so little infrastructure nationwide it's still a little impractical for anything other than commuting. The home fill device is cool as hell but there needs to be stations. My friend has one and it's just amazing how clean the oil stays. :lol:

[Scott Campbell]

Honda makes a great Nat Gas car but there is so little infrastructure nationwide it's still a little impractical for anything other than commuting. The home fill device is cool as hell but there needs to be stations. My friend has one and it's just amazing how clean the oil stays. :lol:



There are about 25 refueling stations along the Wasatch front, making them pretty practical for anything but road trips here - as long as you know where they are.

I still don't know how much they cost. How much of a premium did your friend have to pay for the natural gas Civic?

[The Leaper]

Yeah, a natural gas hybrid vehicle seems to be the way to go. The technology is there. Stop spending money filling our strategic oil reserve and put it toward building a natural gas infrastructure.

[Freak Out]

Honda makes a great Nat Gas car but there is so little infrastructure nationwide it's still a little impractical for anything other than commuting. The home fill device is cool as hell but there needs to be stations. My friend has one and it's just amazing how clean the oil stays. :lol:



There are about 25 refueling stations along the Wasatch front, making them pretty practical for anything but road trips here - as long as you know where they are.

I still don't know how much they cost. How much of a premium did your friend have to pay for the natural gas Civic?

I think they paid 22-24 thousand for the car...but it was maxed out...but that is still pretty high for the model I think...? Very nice car though. I'll ask them.

[Freak Out]

Starts around 25 now..

http://automobiles.honda.com/civic-gx/

[bobblehead]

Yeah, a natural gas hybrid vehicle seems to be the way to go. The technology is there. Stop spending money filling our strategic oil reserve and put it toward building a natural gas infrastructure.

Interestingly romney had a pretty good plan for this stuff too...smart guy that romney, but not smart enough to outpolitic mr. mccain.

[digitaldean]

I am assuming there's an alterior motive but this does seem like a plausible alternative to bridge between natural gas and wind/solar. It's something we can enact more of now.

http://www.pickensplan.org/theplan/

[Scott Campbell]

I've heard of that before, and it looks pretty good to me.

[digitaldean]

Russia is trying to prove to the world they can be more than a superpower in name only.

They are close to arming their Black Sea fleet with nuclear tipped missiles.

Russia can be isolated by blocking them from the WTO and the G8 memberships. Hopefully that economic type of sanction will help. If not, it's a lot more dicey.

Ukraine wants to have a missile shield deal also. So look for the Red Bear's target to shift from Georgia to Ukraine or Poland.

[Freak Out]

I really wanted the Dubya to push Putin much harder than he did...he did his typical day late and a dollar short routine and it makes us look stupid and just as wimpy as the Euros as far as I'm concerned. As Dean stated they absolutely cannot be allowed to join the WTO or the G8 until they stop playing games with their gas/oil...and if they think that they can humiliate us by bitch slapping one of our "coalition of the willing" members we need to prove them wrong.

[digitaldean]

I really wanted the Dubya to push Putin much harder than he did...he did his typical day late and a dollar short routine and it makes us look stupid and just as wimpy as the Euros as far as I'm concerned. As Dean stated they absolutely cannot be allowed to join the WTO or the G8 until they stop playing games with their gas/oil...and if they think that they can humiliate us by bitch slapping one of our "coalition of the willing" members we need to prove them wrong.

FreakOut,

What would have been a more appropriate response? Just curious.

The Euros have done FAR less. Sarkozy helped barter the cease fire. But other than that the rest of them had the thumb up their anal cavity.

Most realize Putin is still pulling the strings on his puppet successor, Medvedev. Until we can find a way to stonewall this jerk, we will only get more of the same.

In the past year, their have been targeted hacker attacks from Russia directed into Estonia, Lithuania, Georgia and Ukraine. But of course, nothing gets done against Russia. Until the rest of the world, not just the U.S. does something, Mr. KGB will keep doing this to extort or bully his neighbors into submission.

[Freak Out]

I thought we should have rattled a Sabre or two....maybe even flown in US COMBAT troops when we flew the Georgians back from Iraq. Had some of our troops in the Capital to help "keep the peace".

"We were recently entertained by a naïve fable of the happy arrival at the “end of history,” of the overflowing triumph of an all-democratic bliss; the ultimate global arrangement had supposedly been attained. But we all see and sense that something very different is coming, something new, and perhaps quite stern. No, tranquility does not promise to descend on our planet, and will not be granted us so easily."

That is Solzhenitsyn in 93 when we all thought that a new world had been born. To bad so many in the US bought into it.

[digitaldean]

I thought we should have rattled a Sabre or two....maybe even flown in US COMBAT troops when we flew the Georgians back from Iraq. Had some of our troops in the Capital to help "keep the peace".

"We were recently entertained by a naïve fable of the happy arrival at the “end of history,” of the overflowing triumph of an all-democratic bliss; the ultimate global arrangement had supposedly been attained. But we all see and sense that something very different is coming, something new, and perhaps quite stern. No, tranquility does not promise to descend on our planet, and will not be granted us so easily."

That is Solzhenitsyn in 93 when we all thought that a new world had been born. To bad so many in the US bought into it.

If we did nothing during Tianamen Square in the 90's,
Rwanda in the 90's
Darfur in the 00's
why would we do anything to upset the apple cart now?

Both sides have played us that they are patriotic. In some way, shape or form we've allowed ourselves to be duped into that.

[Freak Out]

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/227/story/48860.html

Tour of Tskhinvali undercuts Russian claim of genocide
Tom Lasseter | McClatchy Newspapers

last updated: August 18, 2008 08:19:35 AM

TSKHINVALI, Georgia_ As Russian troops pounded through Georgia last week, the Kremlin and its allies repeatedly pointed to one justification above all others: The Georgian military had destroyed the city of Tskhinvali.

Russian politicians and their partners in Tskhinvali, the capital of the breakaway region South Ossetia, said that when Georgian forces tried to seize control of the city and the surrounding area, the physical damage was comparable to Stalingrad and the killings similar to the Holocaust.

But a trip to the city on Sunday, without official escorts, revealed a very different picture. While it was clear there had been heavy fighting — missiles knocked holes in walls, and bombs tore away rooftops — almost all of the buildings seen in an afternoon driving around Tskhinvali were still standing.

Russian-backed leaders in South Ossetia have said that 2,100 people died in fighting in Tskhinvali and nearby villages. But a doctor at the city's main hospital, the only one open during the battles that began late on Aug. 7, said the facility recorded just 40 deaths.

The discrepancy between the numbers at Tskhinvali's main hospital and the rhetoric of Russian and South Ossetian leaders raises serious questions about the veracity of the Kremlin's version of events. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and other senior officials in Moscow have said the Georgians were guilty of "genocide," prompting their forces to push Georgia's military out of South Ossetia — in a barrage of bombing runs and tanks blasts — and march southeast toward the Georgian capital, Tbilisi, stopping only 25 miles away.

That explanation, that Russians were saving South Ossetians from total annihilation, undergirded Moscow's rationale for the invasion.

Georgia's leadership maintains the war was launched by the Kremlin because of longstanding resentment about the former Soviet republic's close ties with the West.

Since Russian troops occupied much of Georgia last week, Kremlin officials have suggested strongly that both South Ossetia and its fellow rebel region, Abkhazia, should gain independence from Tbilisi.

A senior member of Russia's parliament, Konstantin Zatulin, was in Tskhinvali on Sunday. "We need to recognize reality," he said, meaning that South Ossetia should secede from Georgia.

Zatulin also said that the Russian government intended to spend some $100 million on building a "Moscow district" in the city; he did not explain what that would entail.

Russian troops have kept tight control on access to Tskhinvali, often bringing reporters in on coordinated trips. A McClatchy journalist was stopped at a checkpoint on the way out of Tskhinvali and directed back to a Russian outpost, where officers demanded to know where the journalist had been and whom he'd interviewed. In addition to Russian soldiers, South Ossetian militia fighters roamed the streets. One of them, drunk, walked up and showed off a shiny watch. "I got it from the body of a Georgian soldier," he said with a smile.

The difference between Russian officials' description of Tskhinvali and the facts on the ground are profound.

Col. Gen Anatoly Nogovitsyn, the deputy head of the Russian military's general staff, said last Tuesday that "Tskhinvali doesn't exist, it's like Stalingrad was after the war."

But in fact, the city still does exist. While there was extensive damage to some structures, most buildings had front doors on their hinges and standing walls. For every building charred by explosions — the Georgians are accused of using multiple rocket launcher systems — there were others on tree-lined streets that looked untouched.

One government center was hollowed out by blasts, but the one next to it teemed with workers.

While the city was still teetering from the violence, families sat on benches in front of their homes and ate fruit. Many talked about the Georgian incursion on Aug. 7, and the Russian units that then streamed across Georgia's border to beat them back.

"There were Georgian tanks on each street," said Givi Tsekhov, who was walking in front of his apartment building. "But then the Russians came."

Down the road from Tskhinvali, in Georgian areas now occupied by Russian troops, entire towns were almost completely empty and a few bodies were splayed on the side of the road, bloated and cooked by the sun.

Not only was the destruction in Tskhinvali a far cry from Stalingrad after World War II, it was well short of what happened in the southern Beirut suburbs during Israel's war with Hezbollah in the summer of 2006, or the Iraqi city of Fallujah during U.S. fighting against insurgents in November 2004.

In short, the city was scarred but still standing.

The doctor at the Tskhinvali hospital, Tina Zakharova, said she wanted to clarify that she wasn't disagreeing with the South Ossetian officials' numbers, adding that many bodies had been buried in gardens and cemeteries in outlying villages. She could not, however, explain how more than 2,000 dead — the difference between her hospital's count and the Kremlin-backed officials' tally — were buried in a relatively small area without any evidence such as stacks of coffins or mass funerals.

Researchers for Human Rights Watch, an international advocacy group, had similar findings as McClatchy about casualty numbers in Tskhinvali. A doctor at the city's hospital told the group's researchers that 44 bodies were brought by and was "adamant" that they represented the majority of deaths there because the city's morgue was not functioning at the time.

"Obviously there's a discrepancy there, a big discrepancy," Rachel Denber, deputy director for Europe and Central Asia at Human Rights Watch, said about the apparently inflated casualty figures. "It's not clear to us at all where those numbers are coming from."

McClatchy Newspapers 2008

[digitaldean]

Shock of shocks, the Russians lied again.

You know, all those people that do nothing but call Pres. Bush a liar and a butcher, better learn to focus their energies more on the hell holes of Russia and China. Vlad Putin and Hu Jiantao have done more repression and butchery than most of our presidents put together.

The point is debatable about the start of the Iraq war. But this war Russia started with Georgia IS about oil AND control of the Black Sea. If anyone can point to evidence of the contrary, please bring it.

Just wait, Putin will be saber rattling and doing his damnedest to destabilize or invade Ukraine, then Poland, then the Baltic states of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.

[Harlan Huckleby]

Ukraine wants to have a missile shield deal also. So look for the Red Bear's target to shift from Georgia to Ukraine or Poland.

I'm starting to get a little more optimistic that this is all going to work out OK.

You're right about the Ukraine, I guess there is a section of the Ukraine (the Crimea) that the Russians covet, and which has a large Russian population.

I'm encouraged by the statement that came out of NATO recently. I think there will be enough unity against Russian tanks entering border countries. And the west actually has strong tools to deter Russian aggression - WTO, G8 membership. Many sorts of business deals. Russia wants to be in the West. I predict they are not going to do this sort of thing again.

And maybe Georgia shouldn't control South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Maybe the Russians forcing the issue isn't such a bad moment (minus all the death and destruction), the status of those areas needs to finalized before there can be any stability. I hope this all ends with Georgia proper entering NATO and the two breakaway areas deciding their own fate.