woodbuck27
06-19-2006, 06:48 PM
Pick Safety
Written by PackerChatters Staff
Monday, 19 June 2006
By crunching numbers dating back to 1994, Sam Roberts of NFL Draft Blitz breaks down the top ten draft picks of each year, and tells us what positions he considers "safe" picks for NFL teams on draft day.
Every year there are tons of controversy and conversation about whether a player will be a bust or star in the NFL. It's one of the hottest topics to every NFL Draft follower, and it seems everyone has their own opinion about the future success or failure of a certain player. With the draft being practically a crap shoot, it's almost unpredictable to say which players will boom, bust or become consistent starters.
But, with accurate research you can come to a conclusion about what positions produce players that are so-called "safe picks".
This year, some of the widely regarded safe players were A.J Hawk and Vernon Davis because there isn't much of a learning curve in drafting a linebacker or tight end.
On the other hand, when you draft a quarterback, if you pick the wrong guy it can set your franchise behind for years and years.
I've compiled a list for each position that has been selected in the top ten between 1994 and 2004. The list contains busts, consistent starters, and stars. This should provide at least a little bit of info on the safer positions in the NFL Draft.
Qualifications for bust: Player has started less than 80% of their games, and is widely considered an NFL bust.
Qualifications for consistent starter: Player has started in over 65% of their games or started over 50 games.
Qualifications for star: Has made one or more Pro Bowl and is highly regarded as a star player.
Quarterbacks
Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer, Donovan McNabb, Steve McNair and Michael Vick have all reached the star category. These players were all great decisions by their respective teams, and have grown into great NFL players. Trent Dilfer and Kerry Collins have become consistent starters, and while they may not have turned out to be the players they were supposed to be, they were not complete busts. Both players have actually appeared in one or more Super Bowl. Joey Harrington, Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith, Heath Shuler, Tim Couch and David Carr are classified as busts. Carr and Harrington still have time to change their current status, but for now they haven�t performed nearly as well as expected. Thirty-three percent of these guys have become stars, 13% have become starters and 54% became busts. Based on these numbers, quarterback is far and away the most important and most unpredictable position to select in the draft.
Running Backs
LaDainian Tomlinson, Edgerrin James, Marshall Faulk, Jamal Lewis and Ricky Williams developed into stars. Lewis has had off the field issues recently, and Faulk is considering retirement. Ricky Williams is now in the CFL, and recently has had more problems than you can count. The only running back who statistically fits into the category of "consistent starter" is Fred Taylor. The injuries and other problems he has had, are the only things holding him back from being in the star category. When a team drafts a running back, they expect a starter for years to come. Unfortunately for the teams who drafted Lawrence Phillips, Ki-Jana Carter and Curtis Enis, they didn't quite work out. All three players failed in the NFL, rarely to be heard of after the early years in their respective careers. Fifty-six percent of running backs drafted in the top ten became all-pro players. Only 11% (Fred Taylor) became a consistent starters, while 33% were unsuccessful.
Wide Receivers
There were 18 wide outs taken top ten between '94 and '04, more than any other position. For the most part, teams have done well with who they selected. Only three (J.J. Stokes, David Terrell and Charles Rogers) have completely failed at the next level. I'm not going to go through all the names, but most, if not all, are recognizable. Thirty-nine percent of wide receivers grew to be pro-bowl caliber players, 47% became consistent starters, while only 14% couldn't cut it.
Offensive Linemen
It's obvious that when drafting offensive linemen, you're making a pretty safe pick. But it never dawned on me just how safe it truly is. I'd rather not bore you with all the names, but there was a statistical total of 0 busts out of 14 offensive linemen. Seven became stars, and another seven turned out to be consistent starters. Walter Jones and Orlando Pace are possibly two of the best players in the entire league, and the rest are adequate at the very least. NFL teams have done well drafting linemen on both sides of the ball as you will see if you look two inches down.
Defensive Linemen
As far as defensive ends go, Julius Peppers, Simeon Rice and Richard Seymour are the only defensive ends who have been highly successful in the NFL. Grant Wistrom, Greg Ellis and Mike Mamula developed into dependable starters. By the numbers, Courtney Brown fits into that category as well, but personally I would label him a bust. Speaking of busts, Jamal Reynolds and Andre Wadsworth both fall into that category. One hundred percent of defensive tackles selected in the top ten became, at a minimum, consistent starters. There were no busts whatsoever, which really says a lot about the defensive end position.
Cornerbacks
Predominantly, when a team gets a corner they are getting a sure thing. Even with the rule changes that limit a cornerback's "shutdown" ability, teams are still drafting them like crazy. Champ Bailey, Chris McAllister and DeAngelo Hall are three of the top corners in the league, and widely considered to be three of the best players in the entire NFL. Only 24% of corners didn't quite pan out, while 38% became stars, which equal out to some pretty good odds if you ask me.
The Breakdown
Odds of drafting a "star" with a top ten pick.
RB: 56%
OL: 54%
DT: 50%
WR: 39%
CB: 38%
QB: 33%
DE: 33%
Ideally, you now have a better idea of what your team's odds are with each position. Feel safe with any lineman, because there were only two (defensive ends) who actually turned out to be busts. Quarterback is the riskiest position, but can also turn out to be the best pick your franchise could make.
Even with all the statistics in the world, the NFL Draft will always be a matter of chance, scouting and even a little bit of luck.
Written by PackerChatters Staff
Monday, 19 June 2006
By crunching numbers dating back to 1994, Sam Roberts of NFL Draft Blitz breaks down the top ten draft picks of each year, and tells us what positions he considers "safe" picks for NFL teams on draft day.
Every year there are tons of controversy and conversation about whether a player will be a bust or star in the NFL. It's one of the hottest topics to every NFL Draft follower, and it seems everyone has their own opinion about the future success or failure of a certain player. With the draft being practically a crap shoot, it's almost unpredictable to say which players will boom, bust or become consistent starters.
But, with accurate research you can come to a conclusion about what positions produce players that are so-called "safe picks".
This year, some of the widely regarded safe players were A.J Hawk and Vernon Davis because there isn't much of a learning curve in drafting a linebacker or tight end.
On the other hand, when you draft a quarterback, if you pick the wrong guy it can set your franchise behind for years and years.
I've compiled a list for each position that has been selected in the top ten between 1994 and 2004. The list contains busts, consistent starters, and stars. This should provide at least a little bit of info on the safer positions in the NFL Draft.
Qualifications for bust: Player has started less than 80% of their games, and is widely considered an NFL bust.
Qualifications for consistent starter: Player has started in over 65% of their games or started over 50 games.
Qualifications for star: Has made one or more Pro Bowl and is highly regarded as a star player.
Quarterbacks
Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer, Donovan McNabb, Steve McNair and Michael Vick have all reached the star category. These players were all great decisions by their respective teams, and have grown into great NFL players. Trent Dilfer and Kerry Collins have become consistent starters, and while they may not have turned out to be the players they were supposed to be, they were not complete busts. Both players have actually appeared in one or more Super Bowl. Joey Harrington, Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith, Heath Shuler, Tim Couch and David Carr are classified as busts. Carr and Harrington still have time to change their current status, but for now they haven�t performed nearly as well as expected. Thirty-three percent of these guys have become stars, 13% have become starters and 54% became busts. Based on these numbers, quarterback is far and away the most important and most unpredictable position to select in the draft.
Running Backs
LaDainian Tomlinson, Edgerrin James, Marshall Faulk, Jamal Lewis and Ricky Williams developed into stars. Lewis has had off the field issues recently, and Faulk is considering retirement. Ricky Williams is now in the CFL, and recently has had more problems than you can count. The only running back who statistically fits into the category of "consistent starter" is Fred Taylor. The injuries and other problems he has had, are the only things holding him back from being in the star category. When a team drafts a running back, they expect a starter for years to come. Unfortunately for the teams who drafted Lawrence Phillips, Ki-Jana Carter and Curtis Enis, they didn't quite work out. All three players failed in the NFL, rarely to be heard of after the early years in their respective careers. Fifty-six percent of running backs drafted in the top ten became all-pro players. Only 11% (Fred Taylor) became a consistent starters, while 33% were unsuccessful.
Wide Receivers
There were 18 wide outs taken top ten between '94 and '04, more than any other position. For the most part, teams have done well with who they selected. Only three (J.J. Stokes, David Terrell and Charles Rogers) have completely failed at the next level. I'm not going to go through all the names, but most, if not all, are recognizable. Thirty-nine percent of wide receivers grew to be pro-bowl caliber players, 47% became consistent starters, while only 14% couldn't cut it.
Offensive Linemen
It's obvious that when drafting offensive linemen, you're making a pretty safe pick. But it never dawned on me just how safe it truly is. I'd rather not bore you with all the names, but there was a statistical total of 0 busts out of 14 offensive linemen. Seven became stars, and another seven turned out to be consistent starters. Walter Jones and Orlando Pace are possibly two of the best players in the entire league, and the rest are adequate at the very least. NFL teams have done well drafting linemen on both sides of the ball as you will see if you look two inches down.
Defensive Linemen
As far as defensive ends go, Julius Peppers, Simeon Rice and Richard Seymour are the only defensive ends who have been highly successful in the NFL. Grant Wistrom, Greg Ellis and Mike Mamula developed into dependable starters. By the numbers, Courtney Brown fits into that category as well, but personally I would label him a bust. Speaking of busts, Jamal Reynolds and Andre Wadsworth both fall into that category. One hundred percent of defensive tackles selected in the top ten became, at a minimum, consistent starters. There were no busts whatsoever, which really says a lot about the defensive end position.
Cornerbacks
Predominantly, when a team gets a corner they are getting a sure thing. Even with the rule changes that limit a cornerback's "shutdown" ability, teams are still drafting them like crazy. Champ Bailey, Chris McAllister and DeAngelo Hall are three of the top corners in the league, and widely considered to be three of the best players in the entire NFL. Only 24% of corners didn't quite pan out, while 38% became stars, which equal out to some pretty good odds if you ask me.
The Breakdown
Odds of drafting a "star" with a top ten pick.
RB: 56%
OL: 54%
DT: 50%
WR: 39%
CB: 38%
QB: 33%
DE: 33%
Ideally, you now have a better idea of what your team's odds are with each position. Feel safe with any lineman, because there were only two (defensive ends) who actually turned out to be busts. Quarterback is the riskiest position, but can also turn out to be the best pick your franchise could make.
Even with all the statistics in the world, the NFL Draft will always be a matter of chance, scouting and even a little bit of luck.