Week 4 Power Rankings

[pbmax]

The fine spreadsheets at Football Outsiders are not panicking about the Cowboy loss. Total VOA is the straight value over average for a category through week 3 with no adjustments for your opponent's defense. Total DAVE is the Power Ranking which is a combo of the VOA and the preseason prediction, the computer model of a top 25 poll.


TEAM TOTAL LAST TOTAL RANK W-L OFF OFF DEF DEF ST ST
VOA WEEK DAVE VOA RANK VOA RANK DVOA RANK
1 BAL 73.5% 2 24.2% 5 2-0 10.9% 13 -64.3% 1 -1.8% 23
2 NYG 52.7% 1 27.1% 3 3-0 35.2% 2 -12.9% 6 4.6% 7
3 PHI 45.4% 8 38.8% 1 2-1 21.4% 7 -20.6% 5 3.4% 10
4 TEN 44.2% 11 18.5% 7 3-0 4.5% 15 -48.5% 2 -8.7% 31
5 BUF 35.8% 3 8.1% 14 3-0 11.9% 11 -21.2% 4 2.7% 14
6 ATL 35.0% 17 -6.6% 23 2-1 22.1% 6 -8.3% 10 4.6% 8
7 DAL 31.4% 4 20.5% 6 3-0 31.4% 4 3.0% 17 3.0% 11
8 GB 29.9% 6 33.6% 2 2-1 18.9% 8 -4.4% 13 6.6% 4
9 SD 23.3% 13 25.0% 4 1-2 35.1% 3 14.2% 23 2.5% 15
10 PIT 20.0% 5 12.6% 10 2-1 -7.0% 25 -24.2% 3 2.8% 13
11 SF 20.0% 21 -6.3% 22 2-1 7.8% 14 -12.5% 7 -0.2% 19
12 DEN 16.5% 12 9.0% 13 3-0 45.0% 1 22.1% 26 -6.4% 28
13 TB 14.4% 10 17.4% 8 2-1 1.9% 18 -11.2% 9 1.3% 17
14 ARI 13.9% 7 5.5% 15 2-1 15.7% 10 0.9% 15 -0.9% 21
15 CHI 12.6% 14 4.5% 16 1-2 1.4% 19 -7.1% 11 4.1% 9
16 WAS 12.5% 15 0.5% 18 2-1 24.4% 5 2.9% 16 -8.9% 32

[pbmax]

Hey, c'mon, its the Power Rankings thread! Don't be scared to post them just because we lost a game! We're still better than the Bears and the Vikings and the NFC might finally reverse the AFC trend this year!

Stand up, be proud, take the shot that it is to read that your team has dropped below Arizona because every media member is hoping their annual prediction of a Phoenix Cardinals renaissance is finally going to happen.

So go to the sites, make a rambling statement of support for the Packers and tell everyone we don't get no respect. Go forth and conquer. :soap:

Then post the results here because the Football Outsiders are lonely.

[hoosier]

Hey, c'mon, its the Power Rankings thread! Don't be scared to post them just because we lost a game! We're still better than the Bears and the Vikings and the NFC might finally reverse the AFC trend this year!

Stand up, be proud, take the shot that it is to read that your team has dropped below Arizona because every media member is hoping their annual prediction of a Phoenix Cardinals renaissance is finally going to happen.

So go to the sites, make a rambling statement of support for the Packers and tell everyone we don't get no respect. Go forth and conquer. :soap:

Then post the results here because the Football Outsiders are lonely.

Yeah but according to this we're lagging behind the Atlanta Falcons. That means one of two things: either the Packers season is toast or the total VOA doesn't mean dick.

[pbmax]

Yeah but according to this we're lagging behind the Atlanta Falcons. That means one of two things: either the Packers season is toast or the total VOA doesn't mean dick.
If you want power rankings that make sense, then you want the pipe dreams thread two pages down. :lol:

VOA should be good for the Falcons because they have performed well if you ignore their competition. After Week 4, the opponent adjustments for defense go in and you might see the Falcons drop a bit. Packer might too, since one of their wins was against the Lions as well.

But an even better solution, find a power ranking that makes sense to you and post it.

[KYPack]

Hey, c'mon, its the Power Rankings thread! Don't be scared to post them just because we lost a game! We're still better than the Bears and the Vikings and the NFC might finally reverse the AFC trend this year!

Stand up, be proud, take the shot that it is to read that your team has dropped below Arizona because every media member is hoping their annual prediction of a Phoenix Cardinals renaissance is finally going to happen.

So go to the sites, make a rambling statement of support for the Packers and tell everyone we don't get no respect. Go forth and conquer. :soap:

Then post the results here because the Football Outsiders are lonely.

I like the Football Outsiders, but a lot of their stuff sails over my head, like DAVE and VOA.

As far as the AFC, how the mighy have fallen. There are now six teams in the AFC with more than one win. The big AFC 3, SD, Indy, & NE are in the toilet right now. Those 3 will bounce back, but they are not the dominant favorites to the SB anymore. The strong teams in the AFC are Tenn & the Ravens. Both were .500 teams (or less) in most pre-season polls.

The joy in all of this is that NE and Billy B have an uphill struggle this season. I have really built up some Patriot hate over the years. They will probably bounce back this season, but that team is old and it will take 'em a long time to reload when they do crash.

[hoosier]

Yeah but according to this we're lagging behind the Atlanta Falcons. That means one of two things: either the Packers season is toast or the total VOA doesn't mean dick.
If you want power rankings that make sense, then you want the pipe dreams thread two pages down. :lol:

VOA should be good for the Falcons because they have performed well if you ignore their competition. After Week 4, the opponent adjustments for defense go in and you might see the Falcons drop a bit. Packer might too, since one of their wins was against the Lions as well.

But an even better solution, find a power ranking that makes sense to you and post it.

Nah, I was just giving you a hard time. But let's do a simple experiment comparing power rankings with intuition. My intuition says the ten teams playing the best football right now are: Dallas, Philly, Pittsburgh, NYG, Tenn, GB, Buffalo, Denver, Tampa, Washington.

[pbmax]

Yeah but according to this we're lagging behind the Atlanta Falcons. That means one of two things: either the Packers season is toast or the total VOA doesn't mean dick.
If you want power rankings that make sense, then you want the pipe dreams thread two pages down. :lol:

VOA should be good for the Falcons because they have performed well if you ignore their competition. After Week 4, the opponent adjustments for defense go in and you might see the Falcons drop a bit. Packer might too, since one of their wins was against the Lions as well.

But an even better solution, find a power ranking that makes sense to you and post it.

Nah, I was just giving you a hard time. But let's do a simple experiment comparing power rankings with intuition. My intuition says the ten teams playing the best football right now are: Dallas, Philly, Pittsburgh, NYG, Tenn, GB, Buffalo, Denver, Tampa, Washington.
Now just go get yourself a blog, post the list and link to it from here. And you will be in business.

[CaliforniaCheez]

The Packers current Strength of Schedule is .444 which is in the Bell curve of the NFC and the NFL. 16 teams in the NFL have tougher SOS' and 8 in the NFC. 7 in the NFC are the same or worse and 8 in the AFC are the same or worse.

The Packers Strength of Victory is among the lowest in the NFL for teams that have won a game. (one win between the Lions and viklings).

It can look bleak if you are thinking they can be .500 and .500 in the conference after Sunday.

Being three and one, 3-1 in the confernece, increasing the Strength of Victory and probably the Strength of Schedule will be a nice boost.



The season is again at a crossroad. If the Packers can win the next 3 against Conference opponents Tampa Bay, Atlanta, and Seattle, they will be in good shape in the conference and division.

Hope for the best.

[SnakeLH2006]

What's even more amazing then ATL being higher rated than GB is the consistency of Baltimore's D over the past 8 years. FA losses year after year, yet they seem to ALWAYS have the top statistical D. If they could just put some O together maybe they'd make the playoffs again. Oops...they are SB contenders as the #1 team on here. My bad.

[channtheman]

The one thing that sucks about the Packers losing is that I can never bring myself to look at pretty much anything NFL related such as Power Rankings for the whole week. I can't wait for them to come out when we win but when we lose this is the only message board I visit that is Packer related.

[SnakeLH2006]

The one thing that sucks about the Packers losing is that I can never bring myself to look at pretty much anything NFL related such as Power Rankings for the whole week. I can't wait for them to come out when we win but when we lose this is the only message board I visit that is Packer related.

Hmmm? This is a miserable unposted board when GB loses (myself included)...

This board goes nuts with 50 current topics a day when we are winning but maybe 8 threads a day when we lose. Look at the posts since the Dallas loss vs. other threads. Huh?

[texaspackerbacker]

The fine spreadsheets at Football Outsiders are not panicking about the Cowboy loss. Total VOA is the straight value over average for a category through week 3 with no adjustments for your opponent's defense. Total DAVE is the Power Ranking which is a combo of the VOA and the preseason prediction, the computer model of a top 25 poll.


TEAM TOTAL LAST TOTAL RANK W-L OFF OFF DEF DEF ST ST
VOA WEEK DAVE VOA RANK VOA RANK DVOA RANK
1 BAL 73.5% 2 24.2% 5 2-0 10.9% 13 -64.3% 1 -1.8% 23
2 NYG 52.7% 1 27.1% 3 3-0 35.2% 2 -12.9% 6 4.6% 7
3 PHI 45.4% 8 38.8% 1 2-1 21.4% 7 -20.6% 5 3.4% 10
4 TEN 44.2% 11 18.5% 7 3-0 4.5% 15 -48.5% 2 -8.7% 31
5 BUF 35.8% 3 8.1% 14 3-0 11.9% 11 -21.2% 4 2.7% 14
6 ATL 35.0% 17 -6.6% 23 2-1 22.1% 6 -8.3% 10 4.6% 8
7 DAL 31.4% 4 20.5% 6 3-0 31.4% 4 3.0% 17 3.0% 11
8 GB 29.9% 6 33.6% 2 2-1 18.9% 8 -4.4% 13 6.6% 4
9 SD 23.3% 13 25.0% 4 1-2 35.1% 3 14.2% 23 2.5% 15
10 PIT 20.0% 5 12.6% 10 2-1 -7.0% 25 -24.2% 3 2.8% 13
11 SF 20.0% 21 -6.3% 22 2-1 7.8% 14 -12.5% 7 -0.2% 19
12 DEN 16.5% 12 9.0% 13 3-0 45.0% 1 22.1% 26 -6.4% 28
13 TB 14.4% 10 17.4% 8 2-1 1.9% 18 -11.2% 9 1.3% 17
14 ARI 13.9% 7 5.5% 15 2-1 15.7% 10 0.9% 15 -0.9% 21
15 CHI 12.6% 14 4.5% 16 1-2 1.4% 19 -7.1% 11 4.1% 9
16 WAS 12.5% 15 0.5% 18 2-1 24.4% 5 2.9% 16 -8.9% 32


What a total load of crap!

This thing is just plain FLAWED!

If they want to knock the Packers down to 8 after a loss, fine--a bit extreme, but OK. But the Cowboys 7th? The Eagles AHEAD of the Cowboys? Baltimore #1? Atlanta #6?

Those things are just LUDICROUS.

[channtheman]

The fine spreadsheets at Football Outsiders are not panicking about the Cowboy loss. Total VOA is the straight value over average for a category through week 3 with no adjustments for your opponent's defense. Total DAVE is the Power Ranking which is a combo of the VOA and the preseason prediction, the computer model of a top 25 poll.


TEAM TOTAL LAST TOTAL RANK W-L OFF OFF DEF DEF ST ST
VOA WEEK DAVE VOA RANK VOA RANK DVOA RANK
1 BAL 73.5% 2 24.2% 5 2-0 10.9% 13 -64.3% 1 -1.8% 23
2 NYG 52.7% 1 27.1% 3 3-0 35.2% 2 -12.9% 6 4.6% 7
3 PHI 45.4% 8 38.8% 1 2-1 21.4% 7 -20.6% 5 3.4% 10
4 TEN 44.2% 11 18.5% 7 3-0 4.5% 15 -48.5% 2 -8.7% 31
5 BUF 35.8% 3 8.1% 14 3-0 11.9% 11 -21.2% 4 2.7% 14
6 ATL 35.0% 17 -6.6% 23 2-1 22.1% 6 -8.3% 10 4.6% 8
7 DAL 31.4% 4 20.5% 6 3-0 31.4% 4 3.0% 17 3.0% 11
8 GB 29.9% 6 33.6% 2 2-1 18.9% 8 -4.4% 13 6.6% 4
9 SD 23.3% 13 25.0% 4 1-2 35.1% 3 14.2% 23 2.5% 15
10 PIT 20.0% 5 12.6% 10 2-1 -7.0% 25 -24.2% 3 2.8% 13
11 SF 20.0% 21 -6.3% 22 2-1 7.8% 14 -12.5% 7 -0.2% 19
12 DEN 16.5% 12 9.0% 13 3-0 45.0% 1 22.1% 26 -6.4% 28
13 TB 14.4% 10 17.4% 8 2-1 1.9% 18 -11.2% 9 1.3% 17
14 ARI 13.9% 7 5.5% 15 2-1 15.7% 10 0.9% 15 -0.9% 21
15 CHI 12.6% 14 4.5% 16 1-2 1.4% 19 -7.1% 11 4.1% 9
16 WAS 12.5% 15 0.5% 18 2-1 24.4% 5 2.9% 16 -8.9% 32


What a total load of crap!

This thing is just plain FLAWED!

If they want to knock the Packers down to 8 after a loss, fine--a bit extreme, but OK. But the Cowboys 7th? The Eagles AHEAD of the Cowboys? Baltimore #1? Atlanta #6?

Those things are just LUDICROUS.

Just be happy that the rankings don't hold any weight in the NFL and are just for fun. In college they really are total BS.

[pbmax]

What a total load of crap!

This thing is just plain FLAWED!

If they want to knock the Packers down to 8 after a loss, fine--a bit extreme, but OK. But the Cowboys 7th? The Eagles AHEAD of the Cowboys? Baltimore #1? Atlanta #6?

Those things are just LUDICROUS.
Quit your complaining, explain why you think its flawed and put up your own rankings. Or copy somebody else's rankings.

My guess is the Packers aren't much higher than 8th anywhere, but your free to post what you find.

Remember, this list isn't adjusted for opponent's defense yet, that happens after Week 4 I believe.

[Tarlam!]

Quit your complaining, explain why you think its flawed and put up your own rankings. Or copy somebody else's rankings. (...)

B O O M . That sat. I aint gonna say nothing against your rankings, dude!!

[Fosco33]

My rankings... again - using a calculation of offensive/defensive stats, TOP, points, turnovers.

I have a lot of details/reasons why things 'are the way they are'. This ranking system has been in use for 5 years now and is very predictive of victories (if you alter slightly for home field, injuries, travel, etc.). Also, by about week 5 or 6 (depending on bye weeks and initial strength of opponents), most good/bad teams shake themselves out.

Bears 7th
Packers 11th
Vikings 14th
Lions 31st

http://www.hostpic.biz/uploads/77bb5366cf.jpg (http://www.hostpic.biz)

[texaspackerbacker]

What a total load of crap!

This thing is just plain FLAWED!

If they want to knock the Packers down to 8 after a loss, fine--a bit extreme, but OK. But the Cowboys 7th? The Eagles AHEAD of the Cowboys? Baltimore #1? Atlanta #6?

Those things are just LUDICROUS.
Quit your complaining, explain why you think its flawed and put up your own rankings. Or copy somebody else's rankings.

My guess is the Packers aren't much higher than 8th anywhere, but your free to post what you find.

Remember, this list isn't adjusted for opponent's defense yet, that happens after Week 4 I believe.

I wouldn't have been so rude if you did this yourself, max, but to think somebody actually got paid for this, that's pretty bad.

The examples above are so WEIRD on their face that they shouldn't need an explanation of how they are flawed, but I'll give you one just the same.

Most of the idiocy would seem to be explained by over-emphasizing defense. That would account for teams like Baltimore, Philadelphia, and maybe the Giants being ridiculously highly rated. Putting Atlanta that high, as well has having Dallas so low, however, is just beyond any logic whatsoever.

As I said, I can't complain too badly if all the unbeaten teams are elevated above the Packers--although, that kinda defeats the purpose of calling it "power rankings" instead of performance ratings or whatever.

A TRUE Power Ranking means a team is better than and would be expected to beat any team lower than it. Thus, my Power Ranking would be as follows:

1. Dallas
2. Green Bay
3. Philadelphia
4. Pittsburgh
5. Indianapolis
6. Jacksonville
7. Giants
8. San Diego
9. Denver
10.Minnesota
11.Tennessee
12.New England
13.Baltimore
14.Buffalo
15.Tampa
16.Atlanta
17.Chicago
18.San Francisco
19.New Orleans
20.Arizona

Beyond 20, who cares.

[Kyle.McCarroll]

1. Dallas
2. Green Bay

Maybe just a tad bit of homerism in that. :tup:

[Rastak]

1. Dallas
2. Green Bay

Maybe just a tad bit of homerism in that. :tup:


Tex? That's not possible.

:lol:

[Gunakor]

5. Indianapolis

17.Chicago



By your definition of a true power ranking, how do you justify these rankings based upon what actually happened on the field in week 1?

For the record, I also believe Indy is still a better team, but the gap between them is not so big. And I can't justify putting a 1-2 team in the top 5. The Bears are ranked about right, but I'd rank the Colts in the 10-15 range.

[pbmax]

A TRUE Power Ranking means a team is better than and would be expected to beat any team lower than it.
I cannot argue with this definition. Remember though, that these numbers are not adjusted for opponent's yet. That happens after Week 4 for these guys, when they numbers tell them they have enough data for it to be accurate and predictive.

For their version of your definition, check the DAVE scores.

[texaspackerbacker]

5. Indianapolis

17.Chicago



By your definition of a true power ranking, how do you justify these rankings based upon what actually happened on the field in week 1?

For the record, I also believe Indy is still a better team, but the gap between them is not so big. And I can't justify putting a 1-2 team in the top 5. The Bears are ranked about right, but I'd rank the Colts in the 10-15 range.

What can I say? I think the Colts as of now would beat any team below them. There were a lot of extenuating circumstances their first couple of games.

As for homerism in picking my two favorite teams 1/2 (in opposite order), there too, I'd clearly pick those two teams over any team below them, and I would think, it would be hard to argue against that.

Rastak, the ranking I thought people would give me the most static over was picking the Vikings so high.