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pbmax
09-26-2008, 10:24 PM
TED SUNDQUIST’S WEEK FOUR SCOUTING REPORTS: PACKERS AT BUCCANEERS (http://www.profootballtalk.com/2008/09/26/ted-sundquists-week-four-scouting-reports-packers-at-buccaneers/)
Posted by Mike Florio on September 26, 2008, 10:04 a.m. EDT

[Editor’s note: Each week, former Broncos G.M. Ted Sundquist looks at three of the best games of the coming weekend. For Week Four, his first game is the renewal of what Chris Berman used to call — and likely will remind the audience of at least 84 times this weekend — the Bay of Pigs.]

The “Battle of The Bays” follows a week in which both clubs learned a lot about themselves, albeit in different manners. Tampa Bay took on a tough Chicago defense and found that when forced to win through the air, they could do it on the arm of QB Brian Griese. Griese led two late drives, one to tie the game at the end of regulation and one to set up a game-winning field goal in overtime.

Green Bay, on the other hand, was brought back to earth by the physical Dallas defense. QB Aaron Rogers had sailed through his first two tests as the heir to Brett Favre, but the Cowboys brought heavy pressure, sacked the young QB five times, and disrupted the Packers’ passing for most of the game. Now the two meet in Tampa trying to influence the pendulum of momentum; the Bucs hope to maintain it, the Pack plan to reverse it.

Brian Griese slid into the starting position against an Atlanta team that is still trying to create an identity. The veteran QB was efficient enough to build an early first-half lead and guide the Bucs through the second half on the legs of Warrick Dunn and Earnest Graham. The Bears presented a different challenge. One of the best in the League versus the run, Chicago shut down the Tampa ground game and forced Griese to beat them through the air. The Bucs were without vet WR Joey Galloway and heavy emphasis was placed on slowing down Ike Hilliard. Up stepped Antonio Bryant and Michael Clayton. The two had combined for only four receptions over the first two weeks, but would add 15 catches for 192 yards in the Bucs’ late game comeback and eventual win.

KEY #1 will be the consistency factor of this revamped receiver corps versus a Packers secondary that was bruised (but not necessarily beaten) by the Dallas big-play offense. Green Bay is 22nd in net passing yards allowed and has been suspect on 3rd downs. They’re also ranked in the bottom third in big plays of 10 and 20+ yards through the air. If the Packers front 7 can step up on first down and stuff the run (which they’ve struggled to do at times), the Bucs have been a predominant pass team in 2nd and medium/long situations and almost entirely so on 3rd down. Griese will need to know he has options other than the reliable Hilliard and can now look to Bryant, Clayton, and the recently unsuspended Jeremy Stevens at TE. The Packers secondary is on top of their game at the moment in pass defended efficiency (team tied for 4th), but will be without starting DC Al Harris (lacerated spleen) and DC Charles Woodson is hampered by a toe injury. The Bucs are a top 10 team in converting 3rd and long (much improved over ’07). The Packers are solid (upper ½) in stopping such situations. Tampa will benefit more from ball control, keeping Green Bay’s defense on the field in the late September heat/humidity.

On defense the Bucs will be well served in getting some pressure on QB Aaron Rogers. Prior to the Cowboys game, Rogers had ample time to throw and rarely had defenders in his face. The on-coming pressure from the Dallas defense piled up the sacks and dropped Green Bay’s completion percentage below 60% for the first time in ’08. Rogers’ overall efficiency drops in the wake of the blitz as well. Will Tampa build upon its last two outings (combined 7 sacks) or will the Green Bay O-Line hold firm?

KEY #2 will be the amount of pressure (both sacks and hurries) that Tampa’s defense will be able to engineer upon Green Bay. The Bucs rush only the front 4 almost 80% of the time and a lot has been placed on 2nd year DE Gaines Adams. Adams will benefit from an active interior of Chris Hovan and Javon Haye. If Tampa struggles to collapse the pocket, they have been one of the more suspect teams in the NFL to the big-play pass with an opponent rating of 121.5. Greg Jennings is off to a blistering start and Donald Driver can haul in the long ball as well. The Bucs will try to force Rogers to find the outlets and swarm with the LB’s on 3rd down where Tampa has held their opponents to 34% (9th in the NFL). Look for Green Bay to try and re-establish the ground game that seems to have left them since Week 1 versus Minnesota. The Ryan Grant/Brandon Jackson combo is more capable of establishing control than what’s been displayed the past two weeks. To do so, the Green Bay O-Line will have to control Hovan and Haye. Last week, I pinned the chances of the Bucs stopping Bears rookie RB Matt Forte on the shoulders of these two DT’s. The duo combined for 12 tackles and freed up the Buc LB’s to have their own big day. Green Bay struggles to run off guard inside and prefers to get the ball on the edge. They run around the ends as much as any team in the League. But this plays into the hands of the Bucs defense with their speed at LB and in the secondary support of the run.

Look for KEY #3 to be the ability of ROG Jason Spitz (or backup Tony Moll) and ROT Mark Tauscher to create some interior movement in the run game. Spitz could return to his normal position if Scott Wells starts at OC this week. Tauscher has been one of the more successful run blocking OT’s this season and coupled with TE help might be able to create a little room for Grant and Jackson to the right. Don’t look for Brian Griese to throw the ball 67 times this week. Even football has a pitch count. Green Bay’s defense will probably have to contain a renewed emphasis on the run game by Earnest Graham and Warrick Dunn. Chicago’s ability to smother opponents on the ground didn’t allow for the Bucs to ever really establish the run. The Packers have shown definite signs of weakness in shutting down the opposition’s rushing attack, and Tampa will probably look to exploit this, especially on 2nd down.

KEY #4 for me will be the play of MLB Nick Barnett (limited by an elbow strain) and WLB A.J. Hawk against the run. If Barnett and Hawk can actively fill to the hole and create some “stuffs” at the LOS, the Packers might very well create 3rd and short situations and just the place where the Bucs have struggled to convert in ’08. Tampa Bay is tied for 26th in the League in converting 3rd down with four or less to go and the Bucs are not one of the better power running teams in the NFL. Coach Jon Gruden goes almost exclusively to the pass on 3rd down and this allows for physical Green Bay DC’s to press and reroute the Buc receivers. Timing is everything to Griese.

KEY #5 will be the head-to-head match up of PK’s Mason Crosby (GB) versus Matt Bryant (TB). Whether Bryant chooses to play this week is still up in the air due to the tragic death of his infant son this week (prayers are with his family). Crosby is tied for the League lead in touchbacks with 6, Bryant has 2. Both are solid in FG’s and PAT’s, with only Crosby missing once in Week 1. In a close game, neither can afford a “push” or a “hook” to cost his team points (ask Martin Gramatica). Hidden yards of field position can be found in the ability to consistently put your opponent on his own 20 and Crosby hits at a 31.6% clip. Certainly if Bryant doesn’t play even more pressure is put on this important key to the game.

pbmax
09-26-2008, 10:26 PM
And Chris Berman did not dub this the Bay of Pigs. Pete Axthelm did. He was much funnier than Berman and is sorely missed.

Rastak
09-26-2008, 10:29 PM
Scouts Inc's take....


This is a critical matchup between one-time division rivals. Buccaneers coach Jon Gruden must design and stick to a more balanced offensive game plan than the one his club followed in Week 3. It will be difficult, though, even given the declining health of the Packers' secondary. Green Bay needs a win to prove its weakening status as a legitimate contender. Will QB Aaron Rodgers hold up in his first start at Raymond James Stadium against defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin's vaunted Tampa 2 defense? Expect Packers coach Mike McCarthy to spread the field with multiple groupings, opening up the field for the run game and RB Ryan Grant.


When Green Bay has the ball
The Packers' finesse zone-running scheme doesn't always create a consistent push, but McCarthy needs to commit to it. The Bucs' defense has struggled to maintain consistent gap integrity and control, especially inside. MLB Barrett Ruud is playing at a high level, but a lack of size up front means the defense can be pushed around. By establishing Grant as a threat, Green Bay can set up play-action and force Tampa Bay to send a safety into the box and use more three-deep schemes. The Bucs will have more trouble covering the Packers' quick, timing throws in Cover 3 than in Cover 2.

Among Bucs cornerbacks, only CB Phillip Buchanon has been effective playing off the line. So expect McCarthy to design formations to isolate WRs Donald Driver and Greg Jennings on CB Ronde Barber (far better in press coverage) in base and CB Aqib Talib (undisciplined in the Tampa 2) in nickel. Kiffin will continue to rely on four-man rush schemes, frequent interior stunts and, whenever possible, two high safeties and five underneath defenders. The Bucs can ill afford to allow Rodgers to find his rhythm.



When Tampa Bay has the ball
Gruden loves to spread the field with multiple groupings to create passing-game mismatches, and it didn't take long for him to completely abandon the run game last week at Chicago. QB Brian Griese finished with 67 pass attempts and 407 yards, despite Tampa Bay leading or trailing by only a field goal for all but a few minutes. Can a banged-up Packers secondary handle a sustained pass-first approach? CB Charles Woodson is ailing (toe), SS Atari Bigby was inactive against the Bears and CB Al Harris suffered a potentially season-ending spleen injury last week.
Packers defensive coordinator Bob Sanders should continue to employ four-across coverage, with the corners in press position. He prefers four-man rushes to pressure schemes, and uses a loaded zone in the short and intermediate areas. The Bucs' quick, rhythm-based passing offense will force the Packers to defend the width of the field, but it can be disrupted by Green Bay's aggressive brand of coverage. Gruden makes excellent in-game adjustments, so he'll have to find ways to improve the run game to help Griese.

Matchup to watch
Green Bay RB Ryan Grant vs. Tampa Bay MLB Barrett Ruud

A key to this game will be Tampa Bay's ability to neutralize Green Bay's run game. Even before Rodgers took over the Packers' offense, McCarthy was trying to establish a power run game. Grant has good size, functional strength and play speed. He is a natural one-cut runner who has the speed and acceleration to press the hole. He is instinctive, with good vision through the hole. He'll lower his shoulder and run through defenders, but he still needs to be more patient in getting to the second level. He has above-average receiving skills and good after-the-catch ability in space. Ruud is an active, productive, three-down player who knows how to find the ball. He recognizes blocking patterns, takes good angles to the ball and plays sideline to sideline. He is a very effective tackler in the box. He gets good depth on pass drops and excels at reading quarterbacks' eyes in the underneath zones of the Tampa 2 scheme.

Keys to
Success1Keep Griese out of his comfort zone: Griese has a great understanding of Gruden's West Coast scheme, plus a quick set-up and delivery that can neutralize a pass rush. He needs to avoid the interceptions that have plagued him, but he's dangerous to the Packers nonetheless. McCarthy may insist that Sanders become more aggressive in passing situations to compensate for an injury-weakened secondary. At the very least, expect an increase in zone-blitz pressure schemes that attack the interior pocket, with the cornerbacks remaining aggressive and physical in perimeter coverage. The Packers must find a way to rough up Griese and throw off his timing.

2Finish drives: After converting on five of seven red zone possessions in the season's first two weeks, Green Bay went one-for-three inside the 20-yard line against Dallas. (The Packers also allowed five sacks and struggled on third downs.) The team can't afford similar mistakes against a fast, aggressive Tampa Bay defense. Expect McCarthy to exploit Rodgers' mobility and move the pocket around more this week, also incorporating more screens and draws to create spacing. The Bucs haven't consistently maintained gap responsibilities this season, which has been most notable in occasional overpursuit from the back side.

3Better consistency in the punt game: The third phase is more critical to the outcome of NFL games than most observers realize. But the Packers themselves may have overlooked its importance when they hastily released P Jon Ryan and signed P Derrick Frost a week before the opener. Frost is a solid directional punter, but his hang times and placements have been uneven to this point. Bucs PR Dexter Jackson has speed and dynamic playmaking ability that make him a threat to score any time he touches the ball. Frost will need to give his cover teams time to get downfield and avoid Jackson whenever possible.

Keys to
Success1Stay committed to the run: Last week Tampa Bay's offensive line struggled to consistently create run space against a Bears defense that loaded up the box. The offensive line generally is a strength for the Bucs, but it is young and playing without its best player -- injured RG Davin Joseph. Expect Gruden to respond with a lot of two- and three-tight end packages against Green Bay, using shifts and movement within these groupings to try to outflank the defense and create more spacing. Watch for the Bucs to then attack the weak side of the formation with RB Earnest Graham.

2Mix up looks on the back end: Raymond James Stadium is a difficult venue for any NFL quarterback, and Rodgers will make his first start there Sunday. The Bucs use a Cover 2 shell in base, but expect Kiffin to shake things up a bit and disguise coverage concepts on the back end in an effort to bait Rodgers into game-changing mistakes. It will be critical for Rodgers to accurately set the protections and identify coverage concepts pre-snap. The Bucs also need to be very disciplined in their rush-lane integrity, especially on third down, out of respect for Rodgers' mobility within the pocket.

3The secondary needs to step up: Barber wasn't very effective in last week's matchup versus Bears journeyman WR Brandon Lloyd. Barber remains a versatile player who moves to the star position (slot corner) in sub-passing situations. Talib was inactive last week (hamstring) and still is learning Kiffin's concepts. CB Elbert Mack should return from a league-imposed suspension, but how much can the Bucs rely on an undrafted rookie out of Troy State? McCarthy has a feel for moving his receivers around in formations to create mismatches and attacking the weaknesses of a defense. This should be a great chess match between coaches.


Scouts Edge
Last week the Buccaneers won an impressive game on the road while the Packers got punched in the mouth, but these teams are pretty evenly matched. Expect both defenses to rely on four-man rush schemes (with occasional zone-blitz pressure) coupled with physical back-end play and maximum-coverage designs. The offenses will be creative in their use of multiple packages, shifts and motion to create mismatches that can be exploited on the back end. The kicking game will be critical to determining the outcome of a matchup that we expect the Bucs to eke out on their home field.Prediction
Green Bay 20
Tampa Bay 24