POLLS

[texaspackerbacker]

Sometimes they swing one way; Sometimes they swing the other--kinda like most of our forum leftists, I think.

For the most part, Obama has been slightly on top as a whole--was there ever a doubt he was the top ass a hole.

Anyway, my point is this: We have two extremely extenuating factors that paint a much brighter picture for McCain.

One of these is the well known "Bradley Effect"--the concept that a lot of white folks will SAY that they are voting for the black guy, but when it comes right down to it, there's no way in hell they're voting for the black guy. And if it worked that way for Tom Bradley, who was a tough law and order guy that even I might have voted for as California governor, how much more will it be that way for a SNIVELING WIMP--Erkel-type like Obama (kudos to Justin Harrell for coining that Sniveling--or Sniffling--Wimp term).

The other factor I just thought of--straight from me, no credit to Rush or Hannity or anybody. Just the same, I doubt anybody can dispute the logic of it. It is a kind of REVERSE Bradley Effect with regard to women--Sarah Palin in particular--and it's a two-fold effect. How many women are going to tell pollsters "I'm voting for the candidate with the woman on the ticket"? Damn few! Yet how many of those women will like the idea of a woman progressing to that level that they will go ahead and vote for McCain/Palin? At least a few percent more than what tell the pollsters, I would guess. And you can add to that a percentage of Ohio, Pennsylvania, etc. blue collar union workers, conservative in their views, but pressured to vote Dem/lib by their union leaders. They also would be unlikely to TELL the pollsters that they are voting for McCain because they like what his female VP stands for. However, when it comes time to vote, at least some will do just that.

I hesitate to post this because I like the idea of forum leftists having false hope, and then getting shot down on election day--AGAIN--just like 2000 and 2004. Also, I sort of leave myself open for the same thing. The simple fact is, though, I JUST CAN'T SEE THE GOOD NORMAL COMMON SENSE AMERICAN VOTERS ELECTING AN ANTI-AMERICAN ANTI-CHRISTIAN ANTI-FREE ENTERPRISE PIECE OF CRAP LIKE OBAMA!

[bobblehead]

dude...I can't say I agree or disagree, but that post sounded much like a huge pep talk for yourself.

"I'm handsome, smart, and people like me gosh darn it " (in front of the mirror before a big date)

[texaspackerbacker]

dude...I can't say I agree or disagree, but that post sounded much like a huge pep talk for yourself.

"I'm handsome, smart, and people like me gosh darn it " (in front of the mirror before a big date)

I do kinda like that old Mac Davis song.

Other than the one line trying to head off the old leftist whine about echoing Rush or Hannity, though, what makes you think that?

I assure you, my only motivation is to stick the knife in to the leftists and twist it.

[Tyrone Bigguns]

Textbook definition of whistling past the graveyard.

[Zool]

dude...I can't say I agree or disagree, but that post sounded much like a huge pep talk for yourself.

"I'm handsome, smart, and people like me gosh darn it " (in front of the mirror before a big date)

Funny usage of an old Al Franken skit.

[bobblehead]

dude...I can't say I agree or disagree, but that post sounded much like a huge pep talk for yourself.

"I'm handsome, smart, and people like me gosh darn it " (in front of the mirror before a big date)

Funny usage of an old Al Franken skit.

I actually forgot it was franken....kinda does put a weird twist on it huh?

[BallHawk]

Sure, if the polls in Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Indiana, Missouri, and Iowa are all wrong.....

then, sure, Obama won't get elected.

It's looking like it's all over. McCain can't hold down the Bush states and Obama is picking them up.

[sheepshead]

A very good take from Wizbang:


Posted by DJ Drummond
Published: October 1, 2008 - 1:57 PM

Many readers have observed that the election of our next president will be
decided not by a national popular vote, but by the states and the District of
Columbia in the Electoral tally. The problem with the states as they relate to
opinion polling, is that while the national polls have some points of concern,
the state polls are relatively even less certain. The folks at Real Clear
Politics show forty-nine different polling groups which have published results
for states since the end of August, and few of these have publicly-released
verification of their methodology, let alone access to their internal data.
Caveat Emptor indeed , in these waters!

Even so, such information as has been presented can serve a purpose, to address
curiosity if nothing else. I have reviewed and collated the information
presented by RCP, and once again it is all here at the link if you want to do
the same yourself. I would warn the reader that an average of polls is not statistically valid, but it does satisfy a certain curiosity. More, while
there is a range of opinion among the pollsters, it is interesting to see how
many polls were done for a given state. So, in the interest of public service, I
am posting here a reference for the current polling average, along with the
historical average since 1988, and the statistical trend for the state over the
last 20 years. Please also note the columns for undecided, "Clear" and "Polls",
which will be explained below the report:

-continued -

State (historical adv, trend adv) poll avg. (undecided) Clear? # polls
Alabama (h R+15, t R+32) 59.7-36.0 McCain (4.3 und) Clear, 3 polls
Alaska (h R+22, t R + 20) 57.7-35.0 McCain (7.3 und) Clear, 3 polls
Delaware (h D + 7, t D + 4) 43.3-56.0 Obama (0.7 und) Clear, 3 polls
Illinois (h D + 10, t D + 9) 37.7-55.0 Obama (7.3 und) Clear, 3 polls
Kentucky (h R + 8, t R + 21) 55.0-38.7 McCain (6.3 und) Clear, 3 polls


Michigan (h D + 4, t D + 2) 43.9-47.9 Obama (8.3 und) Unclear, 14 polls
Ohio (h R + 2, t R + 1) 46.4-45.4 Mccain (8.1 und) Unclear, 14 polls
Florida (h R + 5, t R + 9) 46.8-45.6 McCain (7.5 und) Unclear, 13 polls
Pennsylvania (h D + 6, t D + 2) 43.2-48.6 Obama (8.2 und) Unclear, 11 polls
Virginia (h R + 9, t R + 9) 47.0-46.7 McCain (6.3 und) Unclear, 10 polls
New Hampshire (h R + 3, t D + 2) 45.4-47.3 Obama (7.4 und) Unclear, 8 polls
New Jersey (h D + 6, t 0.0) 42.0-49.6 Obama (8.4 und) Unclear, 8 polls
Colorado (h R + 4, t R + 2) 45.1-48.9 Obama (6.0 und) Unclear, 7 poll
Indiana (h R + 14, t R + 21) 47.3-45.0 McCain (7.7 und) Unclear, 6 polls
Iowa (h D + 5, t R + 1) 41.8-51.0 Obama (7.2 und) Unclear, 6 polls
Minnesota (h D + 8, t D + 5) 44.5-48.8 Obama (6.7 und) Unclear, 6 polls
North Carolina (h R + 9, t R + 11) 49.3-45.2 McCain (5.5 und) Unclear, 6 polls
Oregon (h D + 5, t D + 7) 40.5-48.2 Obama (11.3 und) Unclear, 6 polls
Wisconsin (h D + 4, t D + 3) 44.2-47.8 Obama (8.0 und) Unclear, 6 polls
California (h D + 9, t D + 9) 39.4-51.8 Obama (8.8 und) Unclear, 5 polls
Georgia (h R + 10, t R + 17) 52.3-42.3 McCain (5.5 und) Unclear, 4 polls
Missouri (h R+ 2, t R + 9) 49.0-45.8 McCain (5.3 und) Unclear, 4 polls
Nevada (h R + 5, t R + 1) 46.3-46.3 tie (7.5 und) Unclear, 4 polls
New Mexico (h D + 2, t R + 1) 43.8-50.3 Obama (6.0 und) Unclear, 4 polls
Washington (h D + 8, t D + 9) 42.8-48.8 Obama (8.5 und) Unclear, 4 polls
Maine (h D + 8, t D + 18) 42.7-50.3 Obama (7.0 und) Unclear, 3 polls
New York (h D + 18, t D + 13) 40.3-52.7 Obama (7.0 und) Unclear, 3 polls
North Dakota (h R + 18, t R + 25) 49.3-41.3 McCain (9.3 und) Unclear, 3 polls
West Virginia (h D + 3, t R + 14) 48.0-42.3 McCain (9.7 und) Unclear, 3 polls
Connecticut (h D + 9, t D + 4) 39.5-53.5 Obama (7.0 und) Unclear, 2 polls
Idaho (h R + 27, t R + 35) 60.0-29.0 McCain (11.0 und) Unclear, 2 polls
Kansas (h R + 16, t R + 26) 55.5-39.5 McCain (5.0 und) Unclear, 2 polls
Montana (h R + 12, t R + 14) 53.0-41.0 McCain (6.0 und) Unclear, 2 polls
Oklahoma (h R + 15, t R + 35) 64.0-32.0 McCain (4.0 und) Unclear, 2 polls
Rhode Island (h D + 19, t D + 13) 34.5-54.5 Obama (11.0 und) Unclear, 2 polls
South Carolina (h R + 12, t R + 17) 54.5-42.0 McCain (3.5 und) Unclear, 2 polls
Utah (h R + 32, t R + 46) 63.0-28.0 McCain (9.0 und) Unclear, 2 polls
Vermont (h D + 13, t D + 26) 36.0-57.5 Obama (6.5 und) Unclear, 2 polls
Wyoming ( h R + 25, t R + 36) 57.5-37.5 McCain (5.0 und) Unclear, 2 polls
Arizona (h R + 8, t R + 14) 59.0-38.0 McCain (3.0 und) Unclear, 1 poll
Hawaii (h D + 15, t D + 3) 27.0-68.0 Obama (5.0 und), Unclear, 1 poll
Louisiana (h R + 3, t R + 17) 55.0-40.0 McCain (5.0 und) Unclear, 1 poll
Maryland (h D + 11, t D + 10) 37.0-60.0 Obama (3.0 und) Unclear, 1 poll
Massachusetts (h D + 23, t D + 23) 39.0-55.0 Obama (6.0 und) Unclear, 1 poll
Mississippi (h R + 14, t R + 19) 55.0-37.0 McCain (8.0 und) Unclear, 1 poll
South Dakota (h R + 13, t R + 20) 54.0-37.0 McCain (9.0 und) Unclear, 1 poll
Tennessee (h R + 5, t R+ 19) 55.0-39.0 McCain (6.0 und) Unclear, 1 poll
Arkansas (h D + 1, t R + 11) no polls, Unclear
Nebraska (h R + 24, t R + 34) no polls, Unclear
Texas (h R + 13, t R + 22) no polls, Unclear
District of Columbia (h D + 75, t D + 82) no polls, Unclear

Only five states are statistically clear at this time. The reason is what I call
'the shadow'. That is, given the number of people interviewed for each of these
state polls, the statistical margin of error is about +/- 4.0 percent. That
means that McCain or Obama could each be as much as 4.0 points higher or 4.0
points lower in support than the results of the poll indicate, assuming the poll
is valid as defined by the NCPP. This creates an 8.0 point range of uncertainty.
The 8 points for the margin of error, when added to the undecided portion of the
vote, gives the range of shadow. If the leader does not have a lead greater than
the range of shadow, the poll is unclear. Also, if there are fewer than three
polls performed on a state, the stated results are inconclusive, which is why
some states with large leads for one candidate are still statistically "unclear".

This is what I mean by the state polls not being very helpful. And to make
matters worse, this aggregation does not remove outliers, and of course when
there are only two or three polls for a state, it's impossible to know which
numbers would be outliers for a state.

[texaspackerbacker]

My original point was--and still is--that there is even less reliability in the polls this time around than other presidential elections.

This is due to the high degree of likelihood that people polled with be less than forthcoming about how they will vote, given the presence of a black presidential candidate and a female vice presidential candidate.

Furthermore, the Obama poll figures will be inflated--the Bradley Effect, and the McCain/Palin poll figures will be deflated.

Maybe that is wishful thinking on my part; Maybe Obama really WILL win--in which case, the country is in for some pretty rotten times over the next one or two terms; Maybe some on the conservative side might even WELCOME the horrors of an Obama administration--hoping for something similar to the Carter years which America followed up with the magnificence of the Reagan years; Maybe I might even support that idea--if not for the HUGE SPECTER OF OBAMA DAMAGING THIS COUNTRY BEYOND REPAIR--allowing terrorist hits, raising taxes, appointing leftist judges, etc.--THESE are the issues it's all about.

[Tyrone Bigguns]

Barack Obama surging to his biggest lead yet in the Gallup Poll, 52-41 percent over John McCain.

How long before Mac gives us his next negative attack? When is the October/November surprise coming.

[Harlan Huckleby]

One of these is the well known "Bradley Effect"--the concept that a lot of white folks will SAY that they are voting for the black guy, but when it comes right down to it, there's no way in hell they're voting for the black guy.

I'm really tired of this line. I've heard convincing arguments that for every person that views Obama less favorably because he black, three people are inclined to vote for him because he is black.

One important reason why Obama was able to leap to the head of the line after only a year in Washington is that A LOT OF PEOPLE THINK IT IS COOL AND EXCITING TO HAVE A BLACK GUY as a president. GEraldine Ferrarro was right.

The media has been fretting over the racist backlash to Obama, and its true enough, but they ignore the big picture.

[texaspackerbacker]

Barack Obama surging to his biggest lead yet in the Gallup Poll, 52-41 percent over John McCain.

How long before Mac gives us his next negative attack? When is the October/November surprise coming.

That's the same 11% lead Gore had 8 years ago yesterday.

The "negative attacks", as you call them, are this year's version of "Swift Boating"--TRUTHFUL references to the leftist candidate's vulnerabilities, based on his ugly anti-American past--and in Obama's case, associations with undeniable SCUM like Ayers and Wright.

[mraynrand]

A LOT OF PEOPLE THINK IT IS COOL AND EXCITING TO HAVE A BLACK GUY as a president. .

I hear this from a lot of my liberal friends - they think that it signals the end of racism. They want to say they voted for the first black president. That's from people who are really engaged in the issues and like all things liberal as well as the uninformed. Non-liberals are excited by this idea, many for the same reason, they just don't want Obama.

[Tyrone Bigguns]

Of course they are. No need to discuss the issues that are plaguing us today.

I, and the rest of the country, want to talk about Ayers.

That is why Mac hammered on this relationship at the debate. :oops:

[HowardRoark]

One important reason why Obama was able to leap to the head of the line after only a year in Washington is that A LOT OF PEOPLE THINK IT IS COOL AND EXCITING TO HAVE A BLACK GUY as a president. GEraldine Ferrarro was right.

Here's a black guy I'd vote for:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KxhYampIl7A

[mraynrand]

One important reason why Obama was able to leap to the head of the line after only a year in Washington is that A LOT OF PEOPLE THINK IT IS COOL AND EXCITING TO HAVE A BLACK GUY as a president. GEraldine Ferrarro was right.

Here's a black guy I'd vote for:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KxhYampIl7A

That was outstanding. It's like Bigguns without the drugs.

[rdanomly]

One important reason why Obama was able to leap to the head of the line after only a year in Washington is that A LOT OF PEOPLE THINK IT IS COOL AND EXCITING TO HAVE A BLACK GUY as a president. GEraldine Ferrarro was right.

Here's a black guy I'd vote for:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KxhYampIl7A

That was outstanding. It's like Bigguns without the drugs.

What he says in the last minute is my favorite. There might be some people voting thinking Barack will make them happy, and for that I'm a little sad because he's not bringing that. The Vast Majority of my family & friends that are voting for Barack are pretty happy people. We know he's not a savior, only a man, like the rest of us, albeit much smarter, but a man none the less.