PackerRats Rankings thru Week 6

[Fosco33]

The Packers broke their 3 game losing steak with a convincing, gritty performance by ARod. With the season-to-date stats improving, they've cracked the top 10 in my ranking system.

Unfortunately, we're playing the Colts this weekend - who have recently learned how to win again - last week against a stout defense they ran up the score.

Going into the season win predictions, I didn't see the Packers getting past the Colts. And despite being favored, I don't see the Packers entering their bye week with a winning record. But all is not lost, we're the NFC North - where mediocrity can win it all.

Bears - 2nd
Packers - 9th
Vikings - 17th
Lions - 32nd

http://www.hostpic.biz/uploads/1024c1a331.png (http://www.hostpic.biz)

[Tarlam!]

Unfortunately, we're playing the Colts this weekend - who have recently learned how to win again

Yah, but, according to your rankings, the Pack is ranked higher than the Colts.

I'll go with your science and wager on the G&G to with this one.

[Scott Campbell]

Excellent use of the word "gritty"!

[sheepshead]

yawn

[Fosco33]

Unfortunately, we're playing the Colts this weekend - who have recently learned how to win again

Yah, but, according to your rankings, the Pack is ranked higher than the Colts.

I'll go with your science and wager on the G&G to with this one.

They've also been leapfrogging teams in rankings lately. If we'd have played them Wk 1-3, it may have been a different story.

It's tough to explain how to use these numbers for predictions/betting purposes, but I took 1st place in a spread pool of 45 people last year (and won $1800) using only these numbers (with adjustments for injuries and home field).

[MadtownPacker]

yawnFos does some good stuff with his system and you come out with some stupid BS shit like this?? Let me know if you are tired and need a nap, I can give you a nice long one.

[Freak Out]

yawnFos does some good stuff with his system and you come out with some stupid BS shit like this?? Let me know if you are tired and need a nap, I can give you a nice long one.

I've met this guy.....he's not joking about a dirt nap.

[Tarlam!]

yawnFos does some good stuff with his system and you come out with some stupid BS shit like this?? Let me know if you are tired and need a nap, I can give you a nice long one.

I'm glad the newbs can't rattle Fos. He knows how appreciated his work is by the larger majority of posters. At least, he damned well should!

[packerbacker1234]

What are these rankings based off? Because, honestly, there is no real reason the bears would be #2. In fact, most of the top 10 doesn't even feel right. How can an undefeated titans team with impressive wins not be in the top 3?

I just curious how the rankings work, because clearly the science is adding up to what is actually occursing on the football field.

[Partial]

I bet you'd come out ahead if you used some sort of progressive system to bet on his rankings. By a fairly significant margin.

Any wealthy rats want to put a grand on the line and hit the casino?

[Tyrone Bigguns]

I don't understand your rankings at all. The bears lose and move up. While the Falcons continue winning and have beaten us and we are ahead of them?

The Bills with one loss are behind us as well?

I think you are encroaching on my gig as the crack smokin rat.

[Fosco33]

What are these rankings based off? Because, honestly, there is no real reason the bears would be #2. In fact, most of the top 10 doesn't even feel right. How can an undefeated titans team with impressive wins not be in the top 3?

I just curious how the rankings work, because clearly the science is adding up to what is actually occursing on the football field.

I take key metrics and ordinally rank them. I then take weighted averages of the rankings to determine the overall summary ranking (best is 1.00; worst is 32.00). I'd share more but it's the secret sauce.

Bears are better than we like to admit. They are pretty balanced and efficient.
3rd in offensive 3rd down %; 4th in time of possession
6th in defensive yards allowed/play; 2nd in defensive 3rd down %
11th in points scored; 7th in points allowed

Titans - solid defense; below average offense
24th in offensive yards/play; 22nd in offensive 3rd down % and 20th in time of possession; 15th in points scored/game...
Tops in points allowed and turnover margin
3rd in defensive yards allowed/play; 9th in def 3rd down %

A few years ago I used to compare the winning percentage verses the rankings and identify teams that were playing above/below their potential.
I also used to identify 'hot' and 'cold' teams. For this week only, here's the results (even is within 6 ranks, over/under are over 7 rank difference from winning %).

Over half are spot on; a quarter are overperforming and the remainder are underperforming (including the Packers). Red numbers are hot team (Colts are hottest from week 5 to 6); Blue numbers are cold teams (week to week).

http://www.hostpic.biz/uploads/cdd1eb6c84.png (http://www.hostpic.biz)

Obviously these get more accurate/predictive over time... but look at Dr. Z's very unscientific ranking of top 10.
1. Titans (7th)
2. Steelers (11th)
3. Giants (3rd)
4. Skins (10th)
5. Girls (8th)
6. Bucs (5th)
7. Panthers (16th)
8. Chargers (4th)
9. Colts (14th)
10. Pats (22nd)

So, Titans, Giants, Skins, Girls, Bucs, Chargers and Colts are within reason... not too shabby for a bunch of silly numbers.

[Fosco33]

I don't understand your rankings at all. The bears lose and move up. While the Falcons continue winning and have beaten us and we are ahead of them?

The Bills with one loss are behind us as well?

I think you are encroaching on my gig as the crack smokin rat.

See above post.

I had Bears 2nd last week as well (and their calculated ranking was worse this week).

[Tyrone Bigguns]

What your numbers prove..is that numbers mean nothing. While i applaud your effort i think you are wasting your time.

The Eagles #1? The Bears #2? The falcons and Bills ranked below us?

[Fosco33]

What your numbers prove..is that numbers mean nothing. While i applaud your effort i think you are wasting your time.

The Eagles #1? The Bears #2? The falcons and Bills ranked below us?

Thanks for caring how I waste 20 minutes a week. I have a title for a new book, "Time Management Skills; what I gleamed from a self-admitted, crack-smoking Rat" :P

It's all in fun -- all types of rankings are generally bs. So why can't PR have one as well... listing teams by number of wins in descending order - yawn.

[Tyrone Bigguns]

What your numbers prove..is that numbers mean nothing. While i applaud your effort i think you are wasting your time.

The Eagles #1? The Bears #2? The falcons and Bills ranked below us?

Thanks for caring how I waste 20 minutes a week. I have a title for a new book, "Time Management Skills; what I gleamed from a self-admitted, crack-smoking Rat" :P

It's all in fun -- all types of rankings are generally bs. So why can't PR have one as well... listing teams by number of wins in descending order - yawn.

20 minutes? For this? Geez, i thought it would be like 2 minutes. :wink:

Like i said, you are certainly welcome to do this...but, you appear from your posts to be intelligent, and looking at your results..i would think you would figure out a way to revise your system.

Any system that has the Bears and Eagles at the top..with the Bills and Falcons below us...that needs some work. :wink:

[Fosco33]

I'll certainly make tweaks over time... but I'm ok with the system.

For fun, I looked at my rankings from week 5 of 2007... I'd say they're pretty predictive even at week 5 (recall Giants stunk at beginning of season). 10 of my top 11 made the playoffs.

Booyacasha.

1. Patriots (lost superbowl)
2. Steelers (lost wildcard)
3. Cowboys (lost divisional)
4. Colts (lost divisional)
5. Redskins (lost wildcard)
6. Jaguars (lost divisional)
7. Titans - (lost wildcard)
8. Eagles - missed
9. Bucs (lost wildcard)
10. Packers (lost nfc championship)
11. Chargers (lost afc championship)
17. Giants - SuperBowl
18. Seahawks (lost divisional)

[Fosco33]

From week 6 of 2006: 7 of top 9 made the playoffs as well.

[texaspackerbacker]

At least these rankings aren't being called "Power Rankings".

In fact, the thing is so convoluted that I'm not sure who exactly is being ranked where.

There have been so many upsets, contradictory results, etc. that it is really tough to put a good ranking together these days.

I really don't think Tennessee is the best team in the NFL. Does anybody?

The Giants, Cowboys, and Redskins lost; The Eagles played like crap; Some teams are up there that you just know shouldn't be--Buffalo, for example, and maybe the Bears.

I'm not even gonna make an effort to rank teams at this point.