Brett Favre, Not A Top Ten Comeback QB?

[pbmax]

heavily edited from the original at footballoutsiders.com

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2006/06/26/ramblings/stat-analysis/3978/

There is commentary from the readers at the site as well.

Quarterbacks and Fourth Quarter Comebacks
6/26/2006

Guest column by Jason McKinley

Competitive balance defines the NFL. Most games are still in doubt in the fourth quarter. Since 1996, 1,474 out of 2,598 regular season and postseason games have featured a team trailing by eight points or less in possession of the ball in the fourth quarter. In 603 of those 1,474 games, the trailing team won. Therefore, nearly a quarter of all victories in the last decade have been the result of late and dramatic rallies.

Quarterbacks are associated most strongly with comebacks. How many times was it said that John Elway “willed his team to victory” following a come-from-behind rally? Johnny Unitas is often credited with the creation of the two-minute offense. In his Hall of Fame career, Joe Montana overcame multiple fourth quarter deficits. In fact, Joe Montana overcame multiple fourth quarter deficits in the postseason alone. Hell, Joe Montana overcame multiple fourth-quarter deficits in the postseason even if you only count his two seasons with the Chiefs. Today, quarterbacks like Tom Brady and Brett Favre are discussed in heroic terms mainly because they’re able to pull out victories in situations where mere mortals would surely fail.

Obviously, many comeback attempts prove futile. While 603 games since 1996 have featured come-from-behind wins, another 1,322 games have ended with the close trailer still behind when the final gun sounded. Any instance in which a team had possession of the ball at some point in the fourth quarter and was trailing by eight points or less was considered for the study. This naturally would include any successful comeback regardless of the largest deficit faced – one can’t complete a twenty-point comeback without getting the score under 9 points at some time. It also gives a reasonable cut-off for failed comebacks: where one drive could potentially change the lead or send the game to overtime. On occasion a team will get the ball very early in the fourth quarter, then again later, and (very rarely) a third or fourth time, and be within one score every time. In this study, that is counted as only one failed game opportunity.

...

We can start to figure this out by looking at the individual performance of quarterbacks in comeback situations. Over the past decade, no quarterback has had more fourth-quarter comebacks than Drew Bledsoe. Then again, no quarterback has had more fourth-quarter comeback opportunities than Bledsoe. Are Bledsoe’s 19 wins in 61 comeback chances more impressive than Donovan McNabb’s 12 in 27? A raw total says that Bledsoe is better, and a straight winning percentage says that McNabb is better. Neither seems like an ideal ranking tool.

A simple comparative ranking system can be formulated with the help of a statistical method known as a “t-test.” A t-test is generally used to test a statistical hypothesis against some population parameter. The result is given as a “p value,” where a lower p value indicates a more significant result. A t-test will usually reward a good average over a large number of trials more than a great average over a small number of trials, which is necessary in this study due to the wildly different and often very small sample sizes for each quarterback.
...

We looked at every game from the past ten seasons to see which recent quarterbacks have been the best at rallying their teams back from a deficit. And although he was known for comebacks early in his career, the top comeback quarterback might surprise you: it’s Jake Plummer, slightly ahead of Peyton Manning and Vinny Testaverde. It’s a surprising conclusion, but that’s the kind of insight rational statistical analysis can provide.

Table 1. Top 10 quarterbacks at comebacks since 1996
Rank Quarterback Wins Losses
1 Jake Plummer 19 28
2 Peyton Manning 19 29
2 Vinny Testaverde 19 29
4 Tom Brady 13 8
5 Jon Kitna 15 23
6 Kerry Collins 17 30
7 Donovan McNabb 12 15
8 Marc Bulger 10 5
9 Jake Delhomme 10 12
9 Jay Fiedler 10 12

...

Brett Favre is often cited as a master of the comeback. He has been above average over the last decade, but not by much. His 16-34 record is approximately one win better than would be expected – reasonably good, but not great.

....

[Dabaddestbear]

I think this just based on comeback. Most great QB's keep their team in the lead so there is no need to comeback. I hate Brett only cuz he plays for GB , but I still put him somewhere in the top ten. In the same Breath I hope Chicago knocks the snot shit out of him when they play!! :twisted:

[pbmax]

I think this just based on comeback. Most great QB's keep their team in the lead so there is no need to comeback. I hate Brett only cuz he plays for GB , but I still put him somewhere in the top ten. In the same Breath I hope Chicago knocks the snot shit out of him when they play!! :twisted:
Yes Mr. Baddest Bear, this was only about comebacks from a deficit in the 4th. Favre's work while piling up a lead is not represented here.

[PackerPro42]

Regardless of those states I would still take Favre with 2 minutes left and we're down by 6. Favre is still the master.

[Polaris]

Regardless of those states I would still take Favre with 2 minutes left and we're down by 6. Favre is still the master.

Favre has not succeeded in that scenario since the 2000 season.

[PackerPro42]

He is still a master mind and would take him over Jake Plummer any day.

[CaliforniaCheez]

When the chips are down and your team must score isn't comforting to have

Kitna

Collins

or
Plummer

Those names immediately pop into your head.

[PackerPro42]

Or Bulger or Fiedler :wink:

[Jimx29]

He is still a master mind and would take him over Jake Plummer any day.And i would still take him over anyone of those on that list

[Patler]

I really wish I had time to look at all 34 of his "failures", because I can think of several off the top of my head that Favre brought them back in the 4th to take a lead, only to have the defense give up another score. Or a couple that Longwell missed kicks on.

1. Philly game in 97(?) Favre drove them to a short winning FG try that Longwell missed in the rain.
2. Bears blocked the go ahead FG at the end of the game in GB
3. Late '90s, against SF Favre lead them to a go ahead TD with little time on the clock, only to have the defense give up a touchdown with only enough time remaining for the kickoff.
4. Carolina, Favre drove them to a go ahead score with a couple minutes remaining, and the defense allows Carolina to drive to a winning TD on the last play of the game.
5. Both MN games last year, the defense allowed drives for last play FGs for Viking wins after GB had come back to tie in the 4th.

Those are just 6 that I remember off the top of my head where Favre drove the team to tieing or winning scores only to have FGs missed or the defense give up last second scores to "clutch defeat from the jaws of victory." None of those were failures on Favre's part, he did his job at the end of the game.

I'm not saying that didn't happen to other QBs too, but I would like to look at how many times Favre did his job, only to have the defense give it right back.

[MadtownPacker]

I was wondering about that too Rock. For the most part the Packers D in the last 5 years has been prone to give up back-breaking late game TDs. If you watch all the games then you know the feeling of them scoring only to know the D would likely give up a score.

[OKC PackerFan]

Yes, our D tossed victory straight back into the jaws of defeat a few times since 2000.

[PackerPro42]

Yeah so when you say that he isn't consistant in those scenarios you should figure how masny of the comebacks of his were blown because of defense.

[MJZiggy]

Yeah so when you say that he isn't consistant in those scenarios you should figure how masny of the comebacks of his were blown because of defense.

I dunno, John Madden keeps saying there's no one else he'd rather have around when you need a late score. He's been around, he must know what he's talking about...

[The Leaper]

I don't give a crap about comebacks. Only two stats truely matter after all is said and done...titles and wins. Only one QB on that top ten list has won a title, so the rest can kiss Brett's ass. None of the QBs on that list are anywhere close to the number of career wins Brett has, so they can all kiss his ass.

That said...Favre isn't one of the greatest comeback QBs of all-time IMO. He's certainly very good, but while very few other QBs would surpass him in most areas, I think quite a few historically rate better than Favre in terms of being able to rally a team effectively.

That's not to say he is chopped liver in that regard. In his prime, Favre ran a 2 minute drill with incredible precision under Holmgren...and his ability to get points on the board just before halftime has been excellent.

[PackerPro42]

In this situation I tend to agree with that fat loser. Gosh Madden is annoying.

[The Leaper]

I dunno, John Madden keeps saying there's no one else he'd rather have around when you need a late score. He's been around, he must know what he's talking about...

John Madden also has 6 legged turkeys and likes circling guys butts. I'm glad he loves Favre, but his man love for Mississippi often is a little alarming...and I'm pretty sure Favre has thought of getting a restraining order on the fat man on occasion.

[PackerPro42]

Yeah one time I remeber him talking about how toned one guys butt was. And it wasn't just for a minute it was for a whole game.(GAY) :shock:

[HarveyWallbangers]

Regardless of those states I would still take Favre with 2 minutes left and we're down by 6. Favre is still the master.

Favre has not succeeded in that scenario since the 2000 season.

Rock listed some. Off the top of my head I can think of these games since 2002. The Minnesota victories in 2004, victories over Houston and Detroit (a game I was at) in 2004, at Tampa in 2003, Carolina and Atlanta (another game I was at) in 2002.

[HarveyWallbangers]

double post

[Harlan Huckleby]

Double Shot Power!

[esoxx]

Another comback game since 2000 was at Jax on a Sun or Mon night game. I believe he even ran in the winning TD himself.

As for the D giving up a lead late, how 'bout the '98 playoff game at SF? Favre drives them down the field and hooks up with Freeman for the score, only to see Young to TO with time expiring (of course after Rice had fumbled so the game was really over :mrgreen: ).

[Noodle]

Essox, I think that was No. 3 in Patler's list.

Very, very, very painful, too.

[KYPack]

This article is the ultimate "figures lie and liars figure" example. One of the problems with these examples is the fact that I'm not gonna check this guy's math and methology, cause I don't give a shit.

I'm sure he's off somewhere, because his conclusions are bullshit.

If my teams down by 4 with little time left and deep in their own end, I'll tell you who I want running the huddle and leading the charge:

1. Brett Favre - this crazy boy will kill himself to get the score
2. Joe Montana - Seen him do it, it was horrible, he beat my team
3. Tom Brady - Joe Cool Jr.
4. John Elway - I know, I hate the SOB too, but he probably should be #2.

The author, Jason McKinley can have :

1. Vinny from the Jets
2. Jon (the midget) Kitna Sorry Partial, but no.
3. Kerry Collins
4. Jay Fiedler AKA the one armed man.

& my team will beat his brains out.

[havanother]

I'm surprised nobody has mentioned (at least I didn't see it) that this stat is incredibly biased. Think about it. The type of teams that are forced into fourth quarter comebacks are the ones that are consistantly behind. In reality you wouldn't want your QB on that list because it means your team is behind all the time. Brett being average at the comeback just means he gets the job done when he needs too, but the team doesn't have to rely solely on the QB to pull them through. The more attempts a team has at the comeback the more successful they'll be at it. Kitna??? I mean come on!

[pbmax]

This article is the ultimate "figures lie and liars figure" example. One of the problems with these examples is the fact that I'm not gonna check this guy's math and methology, cause I don't give a shit.

I'm sure he's off somewhere, because his conclusions are bullshit.

If my teams down by 4 with little time left and deep in their own end, I'll tell you who I want running the huddle and leading the charge:

1. Brett Favre - this crazy boy will kill himself to get the score
2. Joe Montana - Seen him do it, it was horrible, he beat my team
3. Tom Brady - Joe Cool Jr.
4. John Elway - I know, I hate the SOB too, but he probably should be #2.

The author, Jason McKinley can have :

1. Vinny from the Jets
2. Jon (the midget) Kitna Sorry Partial, but no.
3. Kerry Collins
4. Jay Fiedler AKA the one armed man.

& my team will beat his brains out.

Check the years KY, the stats for this only go back to 1996.

[pbmax]

I'm surprised nobody has mentioned (at least I didn't see it) that this stat is incredibly biased. Think about it. The type of teams that are forced into fourth quarter comebacks are the ones that are consistantly behind. In reality you wouldn't want your QB on that list because it means your team is behind all the time. Brett being average at the comeback just means he gets the job done when he needs too, but the team doesn't have to rely solely on the QB to pull them through. The more attempts a team has at the comeback the more successful they'll be at it. Kitna??? I mean come on!
The stats aren't biased. They aren't asking who is the greatest QB and we will measure the answer by fourth quarter comebacks alone.

The question is one angle, who has the most come from behind wins OVER the average QB in the league.

Having a good defense that keeps you in the lead would mean you have fewer games to consider, it wouldn't hamper an above the league norm performance. If you read the article at the site, Roethlisberger is 7-2, which is pretty good with a great defense but with a small number of opportunities to consider, statistically you can't say you can rely on this trend to continue.

[prsnfoto]

When the chips are down and your team must score isn't comforting to have

Kitna

Collins

or
Plummer

Those names immediately pop into your head.
Exactly, and I was just thinking how many of those 34 losses were just last year I am guessing 4-6 then his record looks a little better. I would admit I would take Brady over Brett at this point but Brady is going to start to find out what having no support is like.

[pbmax]

I'm not saying that didn't happen to other QBs too, but I would like to look at how many times Favre did his job, only to have the defense give it right back.

Yes, if you were to make a comparison of near comebacks, the numbers for all QBs would be different. However, since Favre had Jacke and Longwell, plus Hentrich and Bidwell for most of his career, he might come out worse, especially as his FG kickers have been quite good in crunch time.

from the article:

A complicating factor in this study has to do with a “nearâ� �‚¬Â comeback. For our purposes, a comeback was only counted as successful if it concluded with a victory (half-victories and half-losses were assigned to ties). What about a situation in which a quarterback brings his team from behind to take a lead only to see the other team march down and retake the lead with no time left? What about a quarterback putting his team in a position to win the game with a last minute field goal only to watch as the kicker shanks it? Including situations such as these would require a William Krasker-esque mathematical model which would assign appropriate win probabilities to different game circumstances. Such a model would be a wonderful achievement, but would be far too labor intensive in its creation to justify in this project.

[PackerPro42]

Dude I don't give a crap aboout stats when it comes to this stuff. It's al about heart and that's what Favre has. I don't know how many people would take Plummer over Favre. Would you?

[pbmax]

On coaches and defense: Favre has played for one of the ten worst coaches for holdng a late lead, but it wasn't Sherman. And several of the top comeback QBs in the list have played for coaches that are very good at holding a late lead (Brady-Belicheck, Bledsoe/Testaverde-Parcells, Dungy-Manning, Collins-Fassel, Bulger-Martz, Plummer-Shanahan, etc.) However, this doesn't explain everything as Plummer, for instance, had most of his comebacks during his days as a Cardinal playing for Tobin.

from the article...With a test in place for ranking performance, we can then implement another test, an analysis of variance, to help determine responsibility for comebacks and holding leads. An analysis of variance can break down the components of variation between and within groups and help determine which factors (if any) are important. In this study all possible two-way combinations of quarterbacks and coaches were examined. All quarterbacks who have been in a comeback or lead-holding situation under more than one head coach comprised one group. All coaches that have had multiple quarterbacks in comeback or lead-holding situations comprised the other group. Analyses of variance were run on each group, examining comeback ability and the ability to maintain leads, using modified t-test results as the dependent variables.

The general picture from these analyses of variance is that quarterbacks are more important than coaches in coming from behind to win, and coaches are more important than quarterbacks in holding leads. For example, the results indicate that Tom Brady should maintain a similar ability to bring his team from behind to win regardless of whether or not his coach is Bill Belichick. Furthermore, Bill Belichick should maintain a similar ability to hold on to a one-score, fourth-quarter lead whether or not his quarterback is Tom Brady.

These results make intuitive sense. A team that is trailing needs to be able to move the ball and score. Calling the right plays in this situation is certainly important, but execution by the quarterback and his surrounding cast is paramount. Meanwhile, a team that leads by a small margin will require a defensive stop, followed by utilization of a clock-killing offensive strategy usually predicated on the running game. This largely negates the quarterback’s role.

...
Turning our attention to head coaches, seven of the last 10 Super Bowls have been won by coaches who rank among the 10 best at holding a one-score, fourth-quarter lead (Table 3). Nine of the top 10 have either been to a Super Bowl or coached in multiple championship games, with the exception being Jim Haslett. Of course, Haslett spent his entire head coaching career with the Saints; he’s good, but he’s not a miracle worker. Interestingly, three of these coaches have been relegated to subordinate jobs: joining Haslett are Jim Fassel and media whipping boy Mike Martz. Readers of Pro Football Prospectus 2005 will not be surprised to see Martz ranked so highly, although Bob Ryan and Michael Wilbon may feel that his inclusion in the top five invalidates the entire study.

Table 3. Top 10 coaches at holding a lead since 1996
Rank Coach Wins Losses
1 Tony Dungy........51 14
2 Dennis Green......48 13
3 Bill Belichick........32 5
4 Bill Parcells.........40 13
5 Mike Martz..........27 5
6 Jim Fassel..........35 11
7 Mike Shanahan...47 18
8 Jim Haslett.........28 8
9 Bill Cowher.........44 17
10 Brian Billick.......27 8

The worst coaches at holding a one-score, fourth-quarter lead include Marty Schottenheimer and Mike Holmgren (Table 4). Both coaches are long-tenured and boast career records that are more than 50 games over .500. Holmgren has won a Super Bowl and coached in two others. Schottenheimerâ€℠¢s postseason record is horrific, but his teams generally perform very well in the regular season. (He’s the Flip Saunders of football!) Yet they both consistently field teams that get beaten in the fourth quarter more often than they should. George Seifert’s appearance in the bottom 10 might come as a surprise as well. This study includes his time with Carolina, and just one of his glory years with the 49ers.

Table 4. Bottom 10 coaches at holding a lead since 1996
Rank Coach Wins Losses
67 Dom Capers..............25 14
68 Ted Marchibroda........14 10
69 Mike Holmgren..........44 22
70 Jim Mora, Sr..............19 12
71 Butch Davis...............15 11
72 Marty Schottenheimer.33 18
73 Dave Campo...............7 11
74 George Seifert............11 12
75 Dennis Erickson..........15 13
76 Mike Riley...................9 13

[pbmax]

Dude I don't give a crap aboout stats when it comes to this stuff. It's al about heart and that's what Favre has. I don't know how many people would take Plummer over Favre. Would you?
At this stage of their respective careers? Yes I would. Over the course of their entire careers? Not at all.

Heart is impossible to know. You think you know it when you see it, but you are just reading comfortable narratives into what you see.

And posting the article isn't meant to disuade you from thinking Favre is great. I posted it because it was a much better attempt at documenting comebacks than usual commentator banter.

[PackerPro42]

I didn't think that at all. I just think Favre is still one of the greatest of all time.

[BigDmoney]

I didn't think that at all. I just think Favre is still one of the greatest of all time.

i think your totally missing the point. No one would dispute that Favre is one of the greatest quaterbacks in pro football history. The point being made is that on pure "combacks", he may have been praised a little too high. That is what the discussion is for. I peronally dont think there has ever been anybody better than Elway. Montana being a close second.

[Tony Oday]

Bah Favre is right behind Elway. Favre is one of the most exciting 4th quarter QBs ever to play!

[HarveyWallbangers]

Found it interesting that Favre said on ESPN2 today that he would most like to play with Terrell Owens and Randy Moss "to see if we could get along and put up huge numbers." He also said he liked his guys though. It took him forever to answer the question because you could see he didn't want to slight anybody on the team. When asked who the best corners in the league were he said Champ Bailey, Al Harris, and Charles Woodson.
:D

[PackerPro42]

That can't be true because when asked about terell owens being on the packers Favre was really against it.

[MJZiggy]

That can't be true because when asked about terell owens being on the packers Favre was really against it.

I didn't see the interview, but it's easy to say you'd hypothetically like to play with someone when you don't actually have to do it. It's a little different than wanting them on your team in real life. I can see his point. It would be cool watching Brett and TO slicing up defenses, but would I really want TO to be a Packer? No.

[PackerPro42]

Okay. I just needed to clarify.

[Fosco33]

Found it interesting that Favre said on ESPN2 today that he would most like to play with Terrell Owens and Randy Moss "to see if we could get along and put up huge numbers." He also said he liked his guys though. It took him forever to answer the question because you could see he didn't want to slight anybody on the team. When asked who the best corners in the league were he said Champ Bailey, Al Harris, and Charles Woodson.
:D

I saw this as well and posted in another thread. He also said Manning is the best QB, he would've drafted Cutler over Young and Leiny and would trade places with Phil Mickelson if he didn't play football. I also saw his hesitation and thought he could've been more charismatic (not sure how good of a color commentatory he'd be w/ all the 'uhhs', 'ummms').

[HarveyWallbangers]

The hesitation was because he didn't want to slight anybody on the team when asked who he'd like on the Packers. I told my wife that as we were watching, and knew he'd say something "but I like the guys on the team."

He actually said best QB was a tossup between Manning and Brady. His favorite all-time teammate was Frank Winters.

[Fosco33]

The hesitation was because he didn't want to slight anybody on the team when asked who he'd like on the Packers. I told my wife that as we were watching, and knew he'd say something "but I like the guys on the team."

He actually said best QB was a tossup between Manning and Brady. His favorite all-time teammate was Frank Winters.

Thanks - I was channel flipping and just caught the tail end of the 'best QB' comment and missed the comment on Winters. Was he at a Sensodyne convention??? I know he did a commercial or two but that was a weird backdrop. Agreed on his hesitation (not talking bad about teammates) - I'd also say that if we really had some offensive weapons that hesitation wouldn't have been there at all :wink:

[MJZiggy]

Part of it is posted in the NFL section of espn.com. He might have stopped into Pittsburgh for the Twin Rivers Art Festival last week.

http://us.sensodyne.com/charity.aspx

[woodbuck27]

Regardless of those states I would still take Favre with 2 minutes left and we're down by 6. Favre is still the master.

Favre has not succeeded in that scenario since the 2000 season.

What in "H" is wrong with you Polaris. Get your facts straight before you piss all over Brett Favre.

Don't take away from him what he helped give to us. If you want credibility get your facts straight before you go poping off. . . . PLEASE.

In another thread I tried my damnest to show you the facts on at least 9 games since 2001, where Favre was OUR QB for 9 fourth quarter comebacks.

If you read it I'm either in you a lier (and I'm not) or maybe you didn't read that post, or maybe you read it and don't have the parts to admit when you are wrong Polaris? What is it man?

Tell me Polaris the names of all the QB's in the historical records of the NFL that have . . .more 4th Quarter comebacks? John Elway had I believe 47 to lead all QB's and Favre is credited with 34 such comebacks. Name the QB's that had more than Brett Favre besides John Elway. PLEASE.

Back yourself up Polaris, and stick to the facts as you attempt to do so PLEASE.

[pbmax]

woodbuck, Marino has 37.

And the football outsiders article has Favre at 16 wins and 34 losses in fourth quarter comebacks since 1996. Plummer (19-28), Manning (19-29), Testaverde (19-29) and Kerry Collins (17-30) all have more wins and less losses in the last 10 years.

As stated before, except for Manning, none of them have ever played at Favre's level.

As also previously stated, you don't want to always be coming from behind, as that is an indication that your team is mediocre, esp. on D.

But it matches my perception that the Packs success in this area has waned over time, especially as the receiving corp was weakened with the possible exception of 2004 and the decline in talent on defense.

[woodbuck27]

woodbuck, Marino has 37. pbmax

That is right pb but Favre has by my last recollection 34 and Joe Montana 31. Brett Favre is in fast company there.

I counted and recorded on another thread that since 2001 alone, Brett has had 9 fourth quarter comebacks 'as OUR QB'. He certainly never claims that he does it alone.

"it matches my perception that the Packs success in this area has waned over time, especially as the receiving corp was weakened with the possible exception of 2004 and the decline in talent on defense." pbmax

Yes it certainly helps when Favre has some solid targets.Also we need to see the half back option return. That play where Favre swings a short one out of the backfield to Green was deadly, and may be utilized more this season.

[woodbuck27]

"it matches my perception that the Packs success in this area has waned over time, especially as the receiving corp was weakened with the possible exception of 2004 and the decline in talent on defense." pbmax

Just a note on something I found and for whatever it's worth:

Pro Football Weekly rankings

The magazine recently released its yearly rankings of players, and here’s the good news: Brett Favre is ranked fourth among quarterbacks by the magazine’s editors, who talked to numerous scouts and general managers for guidance.

Here could be some good news: Ahman Green somehow is the sixth-ranked running back, even though he is coming off a season-ending and career-threatening thigh injury, and didn’t show much burst when healthy last season.

Here’s the bad news: Donald Driver is ranked 26th among wide receivers. PFW ranked 33 receivers — and 13 emerging veterans — and not surprisingly, Robert Ferguson didn’t make the cut. In fact, it’s hard to imagine Ferguson, or whoever winds up starting opposite Driver, could start for more than a team or two in the league.

So, in the very real possibility Green circa 2003 and 2004 is never seen again, PFW’s rankings confirm what most of us realize: The Packers’ offense is going to be as explosive as a wet firecracker.


note: This isn't necessarily my view. Rankings may mean alot to some but not alot to me. I just tossed it into the mix, so y'all can observe it. woodbuck27

[MJZiggy]

How is it possible that a player that spent most of the season on IR would be ranked better than the go-to receiver. That is completely flawed.

[woodbuck27]

How is it possible that a player that spent most of the season on IR would be ranked better than the go-to receiver. That is completely flawed.

I agree with you MJ.

[Patler]

Regardless of those states I would still take Favre with 2 minutes left and we're down by 6. Favre is still the master.

Favre has not succeeded in that scenario since the 2000 season.

What in "H" is wrong with you Polaris. Get your facts straight before you piss all over Brett Favre.

Don't take away from him what he helped give to us. If you want credibility get your facts straight before you go popping off PLEASE.

In another thread I tried my damnest to show you the facts on at least 8 games since 2001, where Favre was OUR QB for 9 fourth quarter comebacks.



Woodbuck;
Polaris is toying with you. Read the details. The original post said "down by 6" to which Polaris replied that Favre has not succeeded in that scenario since 2000. I believe he is correct, because all of the comebacks Favre has been successful in since 2000 have been winning FIELDGOALS. Thus the team was down by 2 or less, not the "six" posed by the hypothetical.

Of course Polaris has not shown that Favre has NOT been successful when trailing by 3 to 6 points, where a TD would have won the game and Favre failed. I'm sure he probably has failed in the last 5 years; however, trying to draw a distinction between winning fielgoal drives and winning TD drives, as Polaris is attempting to do, is meaningless to me.

[woodbuck27]

Woodbuck;
Polaris is toying with you. Read the details. The original post said "down by 6" to which Polaris replied that Favre has not succeeded in that scenario since 2000. I believe he is correct, because all of the comebacks Favre has been successful in since 2000 have been winning FIELDGOALS. Thus the team was down by 2 or less, not the "six" posed by the hypothetical.

Of course Polaris has not shown that Favre has NOT been successful when trailing by 3 to 6 points, where a TD would have won the game and Favre failed. I'm sure he probably has failed in the last 5 years; however, trying to draw a distinction between winning fielgoal drives and winning TD drives, as Polaris is attempting to do, is meaningless to me.

Here's the facts 'the DETAIL's' of those comebacks.

woodbuck27 wrote:
Favre led the Packers to these ** 4th Quarter Comebacks since 2001:

D E T A I L S

The 2002 Season There were three **.

1. Sunday, September 8, 2002 - Packers 37 Falcons 34.

posted 09/08/2002

Ryan Longwell's 34-yard field goal with 5:15 left in overtime gave Green Bay a 37-34 victory over the Atlanta Falcons on a steamy Sunday at Lambeau Field.

Atlanta's Jay Feely sent the game into overtime with a 52-yard field goal with five seconds left in regulation. That capped a six-play, 35-yard drive that followed William Henderson's dive into the end zone on fourth-and-inches with 1:10 left that had given Green Bay a 34-31 lead.

The Packers avenged their only home loss last year behind Brett Favre, who completed 25-of-36 passes for 284 yards and two touchdowns, and Ahman Green, who rushed 27 times for 155 yards.

Henderson was stuffed at the line but, still on top of bodies, he lunged the ball past the plane. Following a review of several minutes, referee Ron Winter said: "There is no indisputable evidence to change the call."

Henderson's TD capped a 14-play, 80-yard drive that began after Warrick Dunn's second TD, a 2-yard scamper with eight minutes left that put Atlanta ahead 31-27.



2. Sunday, September 29, 2002 - Packers 17 Panthers 14

posted 09/29/2002

Ten years and two days after becoming Green Bay's starting quarterback, Favre found Donald Driver for a 22-yard touchdown with 4:10 left, leading the Packers to a 17-14 victory against the Carolina Panthers.

Shayne Graham, signed by the Panthers two days ago to bolster their kicking game, missed a 24-yard field goal with 13 seconds left that would have tied the game.


3. Sunday, December 8, 2002 - Packers 26 Vikings 22

posted 12/08/2002

For all but the final few minutes, the Minnesota Vikings looked like they were the ones accustomed to freezing conditions and not the Green Bay Packers. But Tony Fisher's 14-yard touchdown run with 1:06 left gave Green Bay its first lead of the game and a 26-22 victory over the Vikings on Sunday night.

The Packers never led until Fisher's game-winning TD on first-and-10 from the 14.

Green Bay got the ball at its 15 with 4:32 left. An interception by Jack Brewer with 2:12 left was negated by Corey Chavous' pass interference on Donald Driver, giving Green Bay the ball at the Minnesota 25.

After Favre picked up a first down with an 8-yard scramble on third-and-7, Fisher scored on the next play.

Fisher, a rookie free agent from Notre Dame who was making his first career start in place of Ahman Green (knee), finished with a career-high 96 yards on 25 carries.

Robert Ferguson also set career highs with six receptions for 105 yards and the first two-touchdown game of his career.

His 40-yard score pulled Green Bay to 22-20 with 10:48 left.



The 2003 Season There was one **.

4. Sunday, November 16, 2003 - Packers 20 Buc's 13. Note: Teams were tied in the 4th quarter.

posted 11/16/2003

Green Bay had Tampa Bay 's once-vaunted defense on the verge of collapse, so coach Mike Sherman was determined to finish them off.

Facing fourth-and-1 from the Buccaneers 16 in a tie game, the Packers sent Najeh Davenport barreling up the middle for 5 yards instead of going for a go-ahead field goal. Three plays later, Ahman Green scored from the 1 to finish a 98-yard march that gave the Packers a 20-13 victory.

"It was such a beautiful drive, I just hated to let it go to a kicker. I thought we had to finish it off," Sherman said.

"I think everyone, including some of our players, expected us to kick a field goal," quarterback Brett Favre added. "But we just wanted to make a statement at that point, and I think we did."

Playing with a broken right thumb and shrugging off five years of futility at Raymond James Stadium, Favre fueled the nearly 10-minute winning drive with a 23-yard completion to Robert Ferguson on third-and-9 from the Green Bay 3.


The 2004 Season There were four **.

5. Sunday Nov. 14, 2004 - Packers 34 Vikings 31

AP Story: Favre Leads Packers Past Vikings 34-31

posted 11/14/2004

Shootouts usually come down to who has the ball at the end. This one came down to who had it at the bottom.

Minnesota's Derek Ross and Green Bay's Ben Steele, who had been cut by the Vikings in training camp, each claimed ownership of Robert Ferguson's fumble at midfield in the closing minutes.

The officials eventually ruled Green Bay had possession, and the Packers drove for Ryan Longwell's 33-yard field goal as time expired for a 34-31 victory, their fourth straight.
Both Brett Favre and Daunte Culpepper threw four touchdown passes without an interception. It was Favre's 18th game with four or more TD tosses, second only to Dan Marino's 21.



6. Sunday Nov.21, 2004 - Packers 16 Texans 13

Favre Leads Packers To Victory Over Texans

posted 11/21/2004

Brett Favre sat silently as his Green Bay teammates anxiously chatted during halftime.

Trailing by 10 points and down to only one healthy tailback, the Packers were desperately searching for an offensive spark. They found the solution in a familiar place.

"I just listened because I knew what we needed to do," Favre said. "And the talk wasn't going to get it done."

Favre led the Pack all the way back in the fourth quarter and Ryan Longwell kicked a 46-yard field goal as time expired, sending the Packers to their fifth straight win, 16-13 over the Houston Texans.

Favre completed 6 of 7 passes for 42 yards on the final drive -- the only incompletion came when he spiked the ball to stop the clock -- to complete Green Bay's rally from a 10-point deficit in the final quarter.

He finished 33 of 50 for 383 yards with two interceptions and a touchdown to Houston native Donald Driver in the fourth period. Driver had quite a homecoming, catching 10 passes for 148 yards.

Favre "gives you confidence that he is going to do something special in those situations," Packers coach Mike Sherman said. "To be able to rely on his leadership and abilities at those times gives us an opportunity to win a game like this."



7. Sunday Dec. 12, 2004 - Packers 16 Lions 13

posted 12/12/2004

There are still two sure things in Green Bay: Ryan Longwell inside 40 yards and Brett Favre beating the Detroit Lions at home.

The Packers only led for 2 seconds, but that was enough to keep their stranglehold over the Lions, who haven't won in Wisconsin since 1991, the year before Favre's arrival.

Longwell's 23-yard field goal gave Green Bay a 16-13 victory against the Lions and lifted the Packers (8-5) into first place in the NFC North by a game over Minnesota, which lost at home to Seattle.

It was Longwell's third game-winner in five weeks and his 43rd consecutive conversion from 40 yards in.


Favre always has an answer for the Lions.

He led Green Bay back from a 13-0 halftime deficit with four scoring drives, including a 90-yarder into the flag-whipping wind for the Packers' only touchdown after Ahman Green's 79-yard TD catch was negated by a debatable holding call on rookie center Scott Wells.

Favre, who is 14-0 at home against the Lions, completed only 3 of 15 passes for 28 yards in the first half but he was an amazing 16-for-21 in the swirling winds for 160 yards and a touchdown in the second half.

"Even with no defense out there, it (would have been) difficult to complete passes," Favre said.

Snow flurries dampened the field into what Longwell called a "swampy mess" and swirling winds with gusts up to 35 mph wreaked havoc on passes, punts and long snaps and caused a slew of drops.

"There's never anything routine about a field goal here, and today there was nothing routine about an extra point," said Longwell, who slipped on the opening kickoff and left a three-foot skid mark on his game-tying, 28-yard field goal early in the fourth quarter.

"The wind was blowing harder than I've ever seen it here."

Lions rookie receiver Roy Williams said he thought he had a catch on the sideline once and as he went to cradle the ball "the wind took it like a Tim Wakefield knuckleball."

The Lions wasted a prime chance to get into the playoff picture in the muddled NFC, falling to 5-8.

Their quarterback, Joey Harrington, completed only 5 of 22 passes for 47 yards as the Lions relied on rookie running back Kevin Jones, who rushed 33 times for 156 yards and a touchdown.

The Packers hadn't held an opponent to so few completions since Oct. 29, 1978, against Tampa Bay.

"We haven't scored an offensive touchdown in the second half the last five weeks. That is just mind-boggling," Williams said. "We just aren't effective, it makes no sense."

Longwell's game-winner capped a 10-play, 37-yard drive after the Packers got the ball back at the Detroit 42 with 3:27 left and the wind at their backs.

The Packers had a terrible first half. Favre entered the game needing 28 yards to tie Dan Marino's NFL record of 13 consecutive 3,000-yard seasons, and he had exactly that amount at halftime.

Jason Hanson's 31-yard field goal was the only scoring either team managed in the first quarter.

Jones made it 10-0 when he deked safety Darren Sharper, slipped behind center Dominic Raiola and shook off Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila on his way to scoring the first rushing touchdown Green Bay had allowed in 22 quarters.

Hanson added a 36-yard field goal into the wind for a 13-0 halftime lead.

The game turned after a halftime tirade by Sherman.

Longwell's 36-yard field goal made it 13-3. After Green's 79-yard touchdown catch-and-run was negated by head linesman Paul Weidner's debatable holding call on Wells, the Packers were pushed back to their 13.

Favre then drove the Packers downfield against the wind, capping the drive with a 23-yard touchdown toss to Donald Driver that made it 13-10 late in the third quarter.



8. Friday Dec. 24, 2004 - Packers 34 Vikings 31

posted 12/24/2004

Facing a seven-point deficit midway through the fourth quarter after one of his familiar, costly mistakes, Brett Favre brought Green Bay back again.

For a Packers team that lost four of its first five games this season, this probably didn't seem like all that much trouble.

Favre guided a 76-yard drive to set up Ryan Longwell 's game-ending 29-yard field goal, lifting the Packers to a 34-31 victory over the Minnesota Vikings -- and clinching a third straight NFC North crown.

"Never give up. That's been this team's M.O. all season," Favre said, "because we could've quit a long time ago."


So Polaris I make that . . . 8 fourth quarter comebacks, that we saw Brett Favre engineer as OUR QB. . . since 2001.

That is a long ways from none.

Incidently in the game last year when we defeated the Detroit Lions 16 - 13 in O.T. the Packers trailed 13 - 10 after three quarters and that is just one more fourth quarter comeback with Brett Favre as OUR QB.

Now . . . that is 9 fourth quarter comebacks since 2001, Polaris.

That is better than two per season since 2001.