Playoffs Betting spread

[bobblehead]

For the first time I can ever recall the NFL playoffs open with 4 home dogs in week one. I'll post the current lines and speculate on the games. Give me your opinions.

Atlanda @ Arizona current line +1 opened at +3 O/U 51

I was surprised to see AZ get support in the books, but the wiseguy money must have come in on AZ to move the line 2 points. This is a tough line with a true rookie starting for Atl but you gotta like his poise so far.

My pick is Atlanta as recently first year starters and rookie starters have fared better in the playoffs than in years past. AZ played in a soft division and got beat by most quality opponents it played. Atl played in a tough division and has a few quality wins. I'm going Falcons in this one even at +1

Indy @ San Diego current line +1 opened at +1 O/U 51

The best QB this season against one of the best ever matchup. Also the two teams no one wants to play. Both are on winning streaks, but san diego snuck in while the Colts grabbed control and won 9 straight to get in. This will be the best game in the opening weekend, but in the end I think the team I picked to start the year is going to run the AFC. Yep, an 8-8 team in the superbowl.

Sunday:

Baltimore @ Miami current line +3.5 opened at +3 O/U 38

Small support for Baltimore in this one but again a true rookie starter in the playoffs on the road no less. I see Baltimore putting up 10 points in this one. But the game manager Pennington leads a late FG drive for the win and 4th FG of the game for the Phins. This game will be ugly with a ton of 3 and outs, I just think the veteran QB will do a little less (damage) and win it. The under is intriguing as well in a game that could be marred with missed opportunities.

Philly @ Minnesota current line +3 opened at +3 O/U 42

Ah I want to say Minny is one and done, but alas AP will run on that Eagles D. Another low scoring game and Donovan has never impressed me (not that TJACK has). Philly bows out on 3 picks from McNabb (even sharper gets one tossed right too him). It will get ugly late as McNabb presses and Minnesota will win this one by at least 7.


There you have my predictions....4 home dogs, 3 home winners. Strangely the only one I will actually have money on is Atlanta. I've been riding them for most of the season so I'm not going to stop now. I'm likely going under in that game as well since the number is so danm high and I think Atlanta will run run run. The other 3 totals are ugly numbers and I won't touch them. I don't even have an opinion on 2 of them.

[TennesseePackerBacker]

I've just had an average year sports betting thus far, my big play will probably be Baltimore or Philly -3.

Just quickly looking at the games without going in to too much depth..

Atlanta @ Arizona +1
I'm a big player of line movement and reverse line movement. I wouldn't touch Atlanta in this one, and Arizona is no daisy either. Over 51 is probably your best bet on this one, but if forced to pick the play is Arizona +1. Why? I believe Atlanta's weakness is in their secondary, and while I don't put a lot of stock in Arizona's defense the home crowd being behind them will really fuel the fire.

Indy @ San Diego +1
My pick, Whale's Vagina +1, I agree with you wholeheartedly and could certainly see a run to the superbowl for an 8-8 team.

Baltimore @ Miami +3.5
When they played earlier in the year I had Baltimore + or - 1, i don't remember which, and took it too the bank. If it's one thing that can be beaten on the B'More defense it's the secondary, specifically being beaten deep. I just don't think Miami has the ability to do that and will be subsequently shut down offensively because of this. The O/U is a tough one to call, because any kind of special teams or defensive touchdown late could push it over the edge. My Pick? Baltimore -3.5

Philly @ Minnesota +3
This is another tough one, so when in doubt go with things like which team is playing better/hot? home field advantage? healthy? coaching? The intangibles are what set even teams apart. Philly wins 3 out of 4 of the ones I listed, so I'll go with Philly -3


So after a quick glance at the games I got, the dogs on Saturday and the fav's on sunday. With a small play on the O/U in Zona/ATL. Realistically, I'll probably just put money on that O/U and Philly -3. I also haven't looked at things like public money, line movement or lack their of, weather conditions, injuries, matchups, etc. It'll be interesting to come back and see what my snap-judgements produced.

[TennesseePackerBacker]

I've just had an average year sports betting thus far, my big play will probably be Baltimore or Philly -3.

Just quickly looking at the games without going in to too much depth..

Atlanta @ Arizona +1
I'm a big player of line movement and reverse line movement. I wouldn't touch Atlanta in this one, and Arizona is no daisy either. Over 51 is probably your best bet on this one, but if forced to pick the play is Arizona +1. Why? I believe Atlanta's weakness is in their secondary, and while I don't put a lot of stock in Arizona's defense the home crowd being behind them will really fuel the fire.

Indy @ San Diego +1
My pick, Whale's Vagina +1, I agree with you wholeheartedly and could certainly see a run to the superbowl for an 8-8 team.

Baltimore @ Miami +3.5
When they played earlier in the year I had Baltimore + or - 1, i don't remember which, and took it too the bank. If it's one thing that can be beaten on the B'More defense it's the secondary, specifically being beaten deep. I just don't think Miami has the ability to do that and will be subsequently shut down offensively because of this. The O/U is a tough one to call, because any kind of special teams or defensive touchdown late could push it over the edge. My Pick? Baltimore -3.5

Philly @ Minnesota +3
This is another tough one, so when in doubt go with things like which team is playing better/hot? home field advantage? healthy? coaching? The intangibles are what set even teams apart. Philly wins 3 out of 4 of the ones I listed, so I'll go with Philly -3


So after a quick glance at the games I got, the dogs on Saturday and the fav's on sunday. With a small play on the O/U in Zona/ATL. Realistically, I'll probably just put money on that O/U and Philly -3. I also haven't looked at things like public money, line movement or lack their of, weather conditions, injuries, matchups, etc. It'll be interesting to come back and see what my snap-judgements produced.


figured i'd bump this for you bobblehead :wink:

[HarveyWallbangers]

Awesome job. I'll have to follow your tips more closely in the future.
:D

[bobblehead]

Awesome job. I'll have to follow your tips more closely in the future.
:D

Thanx for offering up discussion when I asked for it, its pretty tough to not say a word then mock someone when they were wrong. Anyway, I am 0-1 in the playoffs so far, 60% sports betting is considered damn strong. The rest were opinions that I wanted to here discussion on because I didn't have a strong feeling.

Where were you when i predicted Warners season? How about when I was actually right on any number of things??

Just like the old saying goes, you can sleep with 1000 women, but if you suck one dick you're a cocksucker for life :)

[GrnBay007]

I think it would be fun to have a pool here next season with the spread.

I miss picking games that way. :D

[steve823]

Im 4-0 so far...mightve been more luck then anything else but hey ill take it.

Next week we got a lot of great games..cant wait.