The Turning Point in the Ted Thompson Era

[Pacopete4]

2005: 4-12 (fired Sherman and his staff, getting in his own guys that he wants)
2006: 8-8 (finished with 4 wins, catapulting the team into the next season with the new coaching staff)
2007: 13-3 (the high point so far in the TT era under a different QB and a 2nd season of that coaching staff)
2008: 6-10 (the dreaded offseason, the injuries, the "bad luck" timing of playing people on the schedule)


2009: ?-?


Now TT/MM will bring in their Dcoordinator that they feel will help put that defense over the top. I feel that this will be the turning point, good or bad, in the TT/MM era. If this works, they will look great and if it fails they might find themselves with a pink slip in one to two season depending on how bad it is.


Your thoughts Packer nation?

[pbmax]

What does over the top mean?

[HarveyWallbangers]

For the first time ever, I actually agree with pacopete. The difference might be: I think it will work.
:D

[Pacopete4]

Well before the injuries this season they were above avg at best. A new Dcoordinator, if he uses his players right could put them over the top into a top 5 defense which is what TT I think wanted in the first place. A strong D and an offense that protects the ball.

[HarveyWallbangers]

Well before the injuries this season they were above avg at best. A new Dcoordinator, if he uses his players right could put them over the top into a top 5 defense which is what TT I think wanted in the first place. A strong D and an offense that protects the ball.

Top 5 is a tough one. I think our offense will be top 5-8. If we can get the defense in the top half of the league, like last year, we'll be in the mix.

[Partial]

I suspect you're correct with this one. With that said, I also suspect TT will fortify the defense quite a bit this year.

[Pacopete4]

For the first time ever, I actually agree with pacopete. The difference might be: I think it will work.
:D


haha, I'm actually with ya. If they get the right person (and I'm not sure any of us actually know who that is) they could be a very good D. Maybe not a Ravens type D but a defense that is very, very good.

[pbmax]

Well before the injuries this season they were above avg at best. A new Dcoordinator, if he uses his players right could put them over the top into a top 5 defense which is what TT I think wanted in the first place. A strong D and an offense that protects the ball.
My general estimation of them from 2007 was just outside top 10. They have developed holes at D line they didn't have before KGB's injury that year. If the new guy gets them back to that level (literally just above average) I will likely consider it a step up, barring some Jekyll and Hyde performance.

If they get it into the top 10, then I would say that is a job very well done.

[Pacopete4]

I just hope they bring in some guy with an attitude, that snarls. It seems like our dcoordinator, sanders, had no attitude about him. Ive always been a big believer that defense is played with a chip on ur shoulder and lots of attitude. If only Fritz Shurmar were still around.

[BallHawk]

I think TT will be here for at least another 2 seasons, no matter how bad we do. That being said, I think this offseason is a crucial one for two reasons.

1. We need FAs.

2. We need to make sure we have the ability to sign all of our own guys next offseason, especially with the uncertainty with how large the cap will be. Guys like Jennings need to be kept in Green Bay.

I have full confidence TT will get the job done.

Super Bowl next year......book it.

[texaspackerbacker]

For the first time ever, I actually agree with pacopete. The difference might be: I think it will work.
:D

Yeah, me too.

Assuming this all is true, I wish they hadn't done it, but from this point on, it will be either back to the top with players returning healthy and a similar system to what we have, or it will be a downslide to mediocrity with some crap new system.

That could accurately be described as a turning point.

[retailguy]

1. We need FAs.



I have full confidence TT will get the job done.


I agree, Taco Wallace is available, therefore we'll be "in the mix" as they say. :P

On the serious side, I fear we'll hear more of, - "Well, we thought our offer was really competitive, but sometimes, these things just don't work out." :roll: :wink:

Edit - I don't recall Ron Wolf ever saying that.... Not pointing fingers, I'm just sayin..... :idea:

[Fritz]

Yes, I think this is a turning point. It's an admission of failure; the first for MM and TT, really. If they don't get this hiring right then it will probably be the end for both of them, in a couple of years.

It's a big moment.

[Gunakor]

Yes, I think this is a turning point. It's an admission of failure; the first for MM and TT, really. If they don't get this hiring right then it will probably be the end for both of them, in a couple of years.

It's a big moment.

This move isn't really an admission of failure on TT's part. TT hires the head coach, and the head coach hires his staff. Since the head coach is still here...

MM fired his staff, so he's the one admitting to something here. It might be both of their necks on the line, but if that's the case, then I'd say TT is still pretty confident he made the right choice hiring MM - since his job depends on MM making the right decisions. So I don't think he's admitted to any failure on his part at all, but maybe failure on MM's part (which MM admits to as well).

[Fritz]

I dunno, Gun. It's not a great sign for the organization when the HC fires a coordinaotr. Not to say it can't work. But it doesn't bestow glory on Ted, either.

These guys seem to me a kind of package deal. If MM flops, I see TT going, too.

But I don't think MM will flop.

[Gunakor]

I dunno, Gun. It's not a great sign for the organization when the HC fires a coordinaotr. Not to say it can't work. But it doesn't bestow glory on Ted, either.

These guys seem to me a kind of package deal. If MM flops, I see TT going, too.

But I don't think MM will flop.

You're probably right. My point was more that if TT had admitted failure, MM would be out of a job too. The fact that MM is still going to be the head coach next year tells me that TT still believes he did his part right, and he is confident that MM, given a second chance, will get the job done. In that light, I don't see any admission of failure on TT's part.

[Fritz]

Yeah, that's reasonable. But it's a chink in the armor.

Definitely next year will be huge in the future of MM and TT.

But as I said, I think it will turn out well.

I just don't know how realistic it is to think that Suggs, Haynesworth, or Peppers will actually be available.

[retailguy]

Yeah, that's reasonable. But it's a chink in the armor.

Definitely next year will be huge in the future of MM and TT.

But as I said, I think it will turn out well.

I just don't know how realistic it is to think that Suggs, Haynesworth, or Peppers will actually be available.

I don't think any of them hit the open market. But, even if they did, do you really think that Ted will play in that blockbuster market? I see more Brandon Chillar's of the world, or Ryan Pickett's and that would be good enough for me.

I do not believe that Ted will ever "swing for the fences". It just isn't in his DNA.

If Green Bay ever wins a Super Bowl on his watch, I do not believe that we, or the pundits, will be talking about some "huge FA signing" (ala Reggie White). We'll be surely talking about how he "grew" the team via the draft, and the "several" steals he got by trading down. :wink: ... Or something like that. :P

[Gunakor]

Yeah, that's reasonable. But it's a chink in the armor.

Definitely next year will be huge in the future of MM and TT.

But as I said, I think it will turn out well.

I just don't know how realistic it is to think that Suggs, Haynesworth, or Peppers will actually be available.

I don't think any of them hit the open market. But, even if they did, do you really think that Ted will play in that blockbuster market? I see more Brandon Chillar's of the world, or Ryan Pickett's and that would be good enough for me.

I do not believe that Ted will ever "swing for the fences". It just isn't in his DNA.

If Green Bay ever wins a Super Bowl on his watch, I do not believe that we, or the pundits, will be talking about some "huge FA signing" (ala Reggie White). We'll be surely talking about how he "grew" the team via the draft, and the "several" steals he got by trading down. :wink: ... Or something like that. :P

You really don't think TT would take a huge risk, even if the potential reward was just as huge? We haven't seen a FA like Haynesworth hit the market during TT's time here, so it's hard to say whether or not he'll jump into the fray. Especially considering how badly we need an elite DT right now. And figuring that the top of the draft is better stocked with DE's than DT's, it might just make as much sense to TT as it does to me to draft one of those DE's and sign Haynesworth to a blockbuster deal. Our biggest weakness would become our biggest strength in one offseason's time, and our 2 new additions on the line would be locked up for 5+ years. I suppose it does depend on what scheme the new DC brings to Green Bay, but a Kampman/Pickett/Haynesworth/top 10 draft pick line in a 4-3 scheme would be well worth whatever money it demands IMO.

[retailguy]

You really don't think TT would take a huge risk, even if the potential reward was just as huge? We haven't seen a FA like Haynesworth hit the market during TT's time here, so it's hard to say whether or not he'll jump into the fray. Especially considering how badly we need an elite DT right now. And figuring that the top of the draft is better stocked with DE's than DT's, it might just make as much sense to TT as it does to me to draft one of those DE's and sign Haynesworth to a blockbuster deal. Our biggest weakness would become our biggest strength in one offseason's time, and our 2 new additions on the line would be locked up for 5+ years. I suppose it does depend on what scheme the new DC brings to Green Bay, but a Kampman/Pickett/Haynesworth/top 10 draft pick line would be well worth whatever money it demands IMO.

I really don't think that Ted takes that "huge" risk.

And, incidentally, I don't disagree with the rest of your post. I just don't think Ted pulls the trigger. I'd love it if I got proved wrong on this one, but I don't believe any of those guys will hit the market. Maybe never again. But I doubt this year.

[denverYooper]

Yeah, that's reasonable. But it's a chink in the armor.

Definitely next year will be huge in the future of MM and TT.

But as I said, I think it will turn out well.

I just don't know how realistic it is to think that Suggs, Haynesworth, or Peppers will actually be available.

I don't think any of them hit the open market. But, even if they did, do you really think that Ted will play in that blockbuster market? I see more Brandon Chillar's of the world, or Ryan Pickett's and that would be good enough for me.

I do not believe that Ted will ever "swing for the fences". It just isn't in his DNA.

If Green Bay ever wins a Super Bowl on his watch, I do not believe that we, or the pundits, will be talking about some "huge FA signing" (ala Reggie White). We'll be surely talking about how he "grew" the team via the draft, and the "several" steals he got by trading down. :wink: ... Or something like that. :P

If they hang on and win a SB with Woodson still on the team and playing like he has this year, an argument might be made that Woodson was a big FA acquisition.

[gbgary]

turning point...i think this year with the all-TT-team is/was the turning point. i think '07 was a fluke. everything worked...except that last play. next season we have another soft schedule and a new defense...so who knows. i'm usually an optimistic guy, but not now. i'll sit with my chin in my hand, elbow on the table and wait.

[retailguy]

If they hang on and win a SB with Woodson still on the team and playing like he has this year, an argument might be made that Woodson was a big FA acquisition.

Understand the point that you're making and I'll be the first to agree that the Woodson signing has been great and Ted gets the credit.

But seriously, you cannot be comparing Charles Woodson to Reggie White? :wink:

I just think that's a huge difference.

[AV David]

Paco:

I feel "dirty", but I agree with you.

[Pacopete4]

turning point...i think this year with the all-TT-team is/was the turning point. i think '07 was a fluke. everything worked...except that last play. next season we have another soft schedule and a new defense...so who knows. i'm usually an optimistic guy, but not now. i'll sit with my chin in my hand, elbow on the table and wait.

I think 07' was a fluke as well. Does anyone really see us like the teams that win every yr? (pats, colts, chargers, and so on)? Cuz I just don't and I'm really not sure how close we are either and now rehauling the staff? Major steps backwards..

[retailguy]

i think '07 was a fluke.

Too soon to proclaim this, I think, but there are moments where I am right there with you...

Except my head is in my hands and you can hear whimpering if you listen closely. :(

[Gunakor]

turning point...i think this year with the all-TT-team is/was the turning point. i think '07 was a fluke. everything worked...except that last play. next season we have another soft schedule and a new defense...so who knows. i'm usually an optimistic guy, but not now. i'll sit with my chin in my hand, elbow on the table and wait.

I think 07' was a fluke as well. Does anyone really see us like the teams that win every yr? (pats, colts, chargers, and so on)? Cuz I just don't and I'm really not sure how close we are either and now rehauling the staff? Major steps backwards..

Teams that win every year are built in the fashion that TT is building this team. Build your core through the draft, lock up your young playmakers as soon as possible, and use FA responsibly.

I'm not going to proclaim a dynasty here just yet, but I don't see any reason why we won't be regular contenders over the next decade. I agree that 2007 was somewhat of a fluke, but I'd also agree that 2008 was as well. Somewhere in between is a regular championship contender, and that's what I see us becoming in the very near future.

[denverYooper]

If they hang on and win a SB with Woodson still on the team and playing like he has this year, an argument might be made that Woodson was a big FA acquisition.

Understand the point that you're making and I'll be the first to agree that the Woodson signing has been great and Ted gets the credit.

But seriously, you cannot be comparing Charles Woodson to Reggie White? :wink:

I just think that's a huge difference.

Not comparing them, they're different players, both very good at what they do (did). Woodson is a lead-by-example guy. White led by example and was more vocal, something this team really needs.

[gbgary]

turning point...i think this year with the all-TT-team is/was the turning point. i think '07 was a fluke. everything worked...except that last play. next season we have another soft schedule and a new defense...so who knows. i'm usually an optimistic guy, but not now. i'll sit with my chin in my hand, elbow on the table and wait.

I think 07' was a fluke as well. Does anyone really see us like the teams that win every yr? (pats, colts, chargers, and so on)? Cuz I just don't and I'm really not sure how close we are either and now rehauling the staff? Major steps backwards..

Teams that win every year are built in the fashion that TT is building this team. Build your core through the draft, lock up your young playmakers as soon as possible, and use FA responsibly.

I'm not going to proclaim a dynasty here just yet, but I don't see any reason why we won't be regular contenders over the next decade. I agree that 2007 was somewhat of a fluke, but I'd also agree that 2008 was as well. Somewhere in between is a regular championship contender, and that's what I see us becoming in the very near future.


so we have 9-7 and the 2010 draft to look forward to. :D

[RashanGary]

Teams that win every year are built in the fashion that TT is building this team. Build your core through the draft, lock up your young playmakers as soon as possible, and use FA responsibly.

I'm not going to proclaim a dynasty here just yet, but I don't see any reason why we won't be regular contenders over the next decade. I agree that 2007 was somewhat of a fluke, but I'd also agree that 2008 was as well. Somewhere in between is a regular championship contender, and that's what I see us becoming in the very near future.

Agreed. I see this team well on the right track. Let's hope they make some good coaching hires and continue to build this team the right way. Those without patience will forget all about it when the wins pile up. Those of us with vision will get to say I told you so ;)

[HarveyWallbangers]

Players like Reggie White and Deion Sanders don't hit the market anymore. Not with the franchise tags to slap on them. Guys like Nate Clements, Charles Woodson, and Michael Turner are about the best we can hope for.

I can't get over the fact that all of the Super Bowl champions in recent years have had very few big money FAs.

The Giants had Plaxico Burress and Antonio Pierce.

The Colts didn't have any.

The Steelers didn't really have any. James Farrior was probably the biggest money, and he didn't sign a blockbuster deal (3y/$5.4M deal in 2002).

The Patriots first Super Bowl team didn't have many, but they did sprinkle a couple in before their next two championships. They have actually had less success (at least in terms of Super Bowl titles) since they started signing big money FAs.

I do buy that Thompson generally builds through the draft. I don't buy that Thompson doesn't go after available big name players. He had the highest bid for LaVarr Arrington and Adam Vinatieri, and he appeared to have deals in place for Randy Moss and Tony Gonzalez (in trade attempts).

He does need to be active this offseason though. Our front seven won't fix itself just from improved health and the draft. I'm not too worried about the other positions though.

[SlimPickens]

I didn't realize we had a new QB in 2007.

[HarveyWallbangers]

Looking into Mike Nolan's career as a DC more:

1993 NYG - #1 (points allowed)
1994 NYG - #8 (points allowed)
1995 NYG - #15 (points allowed)
1996 NYG - #10 (points allowed)
1997 WAS - #8 (points allowed)
1998 WAS - #24 (points allowed)
1999 WAS - #24 (points allowed)
2000 NYJ - #19 (points allowed)
2002 BAL - #19 (points allowed)
2003 BAL - #6 (points allowed)
2004 BAL - #6 (points allowed)

In 11 years as DC, his defenses have been on average #12.7 in the league. Not bad. Not phenomenal. Not sure what to make of the guy. His defenses were good with a lot of talent in Baltimore. His defenses weren't very good when he didn't have as much talent in Washington and with the Jets. His defenses with the Giants were good. Not sure about the talent.

[gbgary]

I didn't realize we had a new QB in 2007.

who said we did?

[HarveyWallbangers]

This scares me.


Interestingly, Nolan’s scheme in San Francisco bombed this season because of the confusion caused by so many varying looks and substitutions. The Niners’ defense experienced a dramatic turnaround after Mike Singletary greatly simplified Nolan’s scheme.

[Fritz]

Me too.

[MJZiggy]

Edit - I don't recall Ron Wolf ever saying that.... Not pointing fingers, I'm just sayin..... :idea:

Did we ever even hear about which FA which teams went after back then? Seems to me we only heard about it as the ink was drying--then we got the great story about the call from God.

[Packerarcher]

I suspect you're correct with this one. With that said, I also suspect TT will fortify the defense quite a bit this year.

How will he do that,it sure as hell won't be through free agency.

[mission]

This scares me.


Interestingly, Nolan’s scheme in San Francisco bombed this season because of the confusion caused by so many varying looks and substitutions. The Niners’ defense experienced a dramatic turnaround after Mike Singletary greatly simplified Nolan’s scheme.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't he working with literally some of the worst personnel in the league at that point? I remember laughing at some of the guys the niners had on D ... maybe with more experienced guys, this is something that could work...

I'm not really behind the guy at all, just trying to get the right context here ...

That could be like saying Timmy's batting average improved dramatically once he dropped from Little League to T-Ball ...

[vince]

Here's a column by Mike Woods that fits well with this thread. He's always been cynical of TT and MM, and this article is no different, but if the Packers fail in the win-loss column again next year, the kitchen will definitely be hot.

Next moves will define Green Bay Packers coach Mike McCarthy

Give Mike McCarthy credit for this: he knows his job is on the line and has acted accordingly.

Whether distancing himself from nearly his entire defensive staff will achieve the desired result is something only time will tell. But he understood time was no longer an ally, his defense took a significant step back this season and if meaningful improvement was not realized next season, it would be his head on the chopping block.

While he pinpointed five scapegoats on defense — headlined by coordinator Bob Sanders — remember it was McCarthy who hired all of them to begin with. This presents two problems; faith in him making the right choices this time won't be high as he has admitted he blew six hires (or seven if you believe special teams coach Mike Stock didn't retire voluntarily).

His second problem is he best avoid mirrors when pointing fingers.

The rumored leader in the clubhouse to assume control as defensive coordinator is linebackers coach Winston Moss, who also owns the title of assistant head coach and was interviewed by the Rams for their head coaching position. Moss may be the choice though if he is he cannot be considered a convincing option, as the Packers linebackers were less than stellar, even with Nick Barnett in the lineup.

What we can't be sure is if these moves buy McCarthy any more time. But rest assured this will be his last chance to get it right. You would imagine the defense would have to show significant improvement and the Packers would have to finish .500 or better for him to survive another year.

That doesn't leave a lot of time, to not only find people but also find the right people. The fact that McCarthy is edging toward the hot seat will not work to his advantage because no coach, especially quality ones with eyes on advancement, want one-and-done on their resume. Couple that with the fact that you have five teams looking for new head coaches — and possibly a sixth with the Rams — and the race to locate and hire quality coaches will be ultra competitive.

These coaches will have choices, and they will certainly understand that casting their lot with a new coach will afford them a tad more job security than with a guy who has just one winning season in three years and is operating under the stigma of perhaps not being as good as originally thought.

Suffice it to say McCarthy has his work cut out. His next hires will make or break his coaching career in Green Bay. While the importance of the defensive hires are obvious, so too is the choice for next special teams coach as well as the strength and conditioning coach.

That last one may seem a bit odd but any team that hopes to achieve success must avoid wearing down as the season progresses. We don't know what McCarthy's issues were with Rock Gullickson, but somewhere in the equation must have been dissatisfaction with the team's physical preparedness.

It would have been better for McCarthy to stand up and say what his problems were with his defensive coaches and why they were let go. It would be nice to know if he believes a change in scheme is necessary. It would be nice to know what exactly he's looking for as he begins his search to hire people to help him save his job.

But McCarthy has opted to stay mum on the matter, leaving everyone to simply put faith into believing he knows what he's doing. But when he has already admitted to being wrong on so many of his previous hires, that's hard to do.

[pbmax]

This scares me.


Interestingly, Nolan’s scheme in San Francisco bombed this season because of the confusion caused by so many varying looks and substitutions. The Niners’ defense experienced a dramatic turnaround after Mike Singletary greatly simplified Nolan’s scheme.
Well, it may be music to those who want less vanilla. :lol:

I do not put much stock into these types of explanations, they are too simple.

Bates scheme was supposed to work because it was simple and straightforward and the athletes could just react instead of thinking. Well, that's great, if you have the athletes that are better than the opposing O. Kind of circular, no?

Next year, halfway through the season, perhaps the following year after the schedule gets tougher, you will hear criticism that Singletary is to simple, too stubborn, etc.

You need a good scheme, with coaches that can be flexible, and a guy to get you the players to play that scheme. I think M3 has proven to be that kind of offensive guy. My bet is that T2 is better at acquiring talent than Sanders was at adjusting his scheme to injuries. The challenge, is for McCarthy to find on defense the same kind of guy he and Philbin are on offense.

[Fritz]

Woods's column is good. This season was a step back - a big one - because usually teams are seen as on the rise or on the decline, and after 13-3 most folks thought this team should have been able to win at least nine or ten games.

MM - and TT, I think, too - are on shorter leashes now. I think they get next year, for sure, and maybe one year after that if there are again massive injuries but the team improves somewhat. But if they aren't at least 10-6 and in the playoffs in 2010 - at least - then they are gone.

MM needs to get this one right, this set of hirings. It's his last shot. It won't be like Marinelli in Detroit, who fired a coordinator a year for three years running.