Brandt's Franchise & Transition Tags Analysis

[vince]

http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/2009/01/franchise-transition-tags-analysis/


Franchise & Transition Tags Analysis
FROM ANDREW BRANDT:

The official 2009 Franchise and Transition Tag tender numbers are now known.

To refresh how tenders are established, a Franchise tender is an amount equal to the average of the top five salaries (salary plus other prorated amounts) at that position from the 2008 season. A Transition tender is an amount equal to the average of the top 10 salaries (salary plus other prorated amounts) at that position from the 2008 season. Once a player accepts the tender, the amount is fully guaranteed for the year.

As we approach the tagging period of Feb. 5-19, here are the official numbers, in millions rounded to the nearest ten thousand, with notes about the players and calculations leading to the numbers:

Position.....Franchise.....Transition
------------------------------------------------------------------
Quarterback.....$14.65.....$12.44
This group is led by Peyton Manning’s 2008 number of $18.7M, followed by two players who played little in 2008, Tom Brady at $14.6M and Carson Palmer at $14M. The next two quarterbacks played together for three years, with Aaron Rodgers and his new 2008 Cap-heavy deal at $13.9M and Brett Favre at $12M. Our strong belief is that Matt Cassel will have the Franchise tag applied to him, making his 2009 Cap number very similar to that of Brady in 2008.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Cornerback.....$9.96.....$8.37
This number was set by a couple of underperformers in 2008, with Chris McAlister – likely to soon be an ex-Baltimore Raven – at $10.9M , following only Champ Bailey at $12.2M. Nnamdi Ashomugha was franchised in 2008 at $9.765M and is hoping he’s not tagged again. The Raiders’ Cap problems may help his cause.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Wide Receiver.....$9.88.....$8.39
The Colts have the first and 10th numbers in this group, with Marvin Harrison leading the way at $12M and Reggie Wayne 10th at $6.7M. Others setting the pace in this group include Lee Evans and his new 2008 Cap-heavy deal at $10.4M and Vikings free agent signee Bernard Berrian at $9.4M.
------------------------------------------------------------------
Defensive End.....$8.99.....$7.78
Julius Peppers is front and center here, with a 2008 Cap number of $13.9M (meaning if he is franchised, his number will not be the one above but rather 20 percent above his 2008 number, or a prohibitive $16.7M). Others in the group setting these numbers include Jason Taylor, whose future is unclear in Washington or anywhere else, at $7.5M and John Abraham at $8.5M.
------------------------------------------------------------------
Offensive Line.....$8.45.....$7.74
The top two 2008 numbers here went to Cleveland Browns, both being 2007 signings, one a marquee free-agent signing (Eric Steinbach at $9.2M) and one a top draft choice (Joe Thomas at $8.9M). Others include perennial All-Pros Walter Jones ($8.6M) and Orlando Pace ($8.2M). Jordan Gross played on a Franchise tag in 2008 at $7.455M and may be there again at a 20-percent increase to $8.95M.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Linebacker.....$8.3.....$7.48
Like the offensive lineman, the top two 2008 numbers setting this pace were from the same team, with Ray Lewis ($9.4M) and franchised-Terrell Suggs ($8.475M) of the Ravens holding the highest numbers. Suggs’ number was the result of a settled arbitration that determined whether he should be treated as a linebacker or defensive end. Interestingly, both players are going to be free agents pending decisions by the Ravens, a team with Cap issues.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Running Back.....$6.62.....$5.92
The top three numbers here from 2008 all have insecure futures: LaDanian Tomlinson ($7.8M), Edgerrin James ($6.8M) and Jamal Lewis ($6.4M). It will be interesting to see the changes in those numbers in 2009, as well as other vulnerable top 2008 numbers like Larry Johnson ($5.7M) and Deuce McAlister ($4.9M).
------------------------------------------------------------------
Safety.....$6.34.....$5.13
This is another group with some high 2008 numbers that are questions marks for 2009, including Roy Williams ($6.7M) and Darren Sharper ($4.15M). Bob Sanders’ number of $8.2M led the pack.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Defensive Tackle.....$6.06.....$5.45
Albert Haynesworth’s 2008 Franchise number of $7.25M led the group last year and will likely lead again in 2009, although under a new contract since the Titans lost the privilege to tag him again based on his 2008 contract. There were not a lot of high numbers here, although that will change in 2009 when option/roster bonuses kick in for players such as the Browns’ duo of Corey Williams and Shaun Rogers.
------------------------------------------------------------------
Tight End.....$4.46.....$4.07
This is traditionally a number that provides good value to a team if there’s a player worthy of the tag. Tony Gonzalez was the only player at or above $5M in 2008.
------------------------------------------------------------------
Punter/Kicker.....$2.48.....$2.26
Another good value for a tag, with Sebastian Janikowski the only 2008 number over $3M.

There’s much more ahead in the coming weeks as we analyze the decision-making of teams in choosing whether to apply these tenders.

[KYPack]

Brandt was a real snake when he was in the Packer organization. But no one can say that he didn't know his stuff.

This will be one of the most interesting off-seasons of the salary cap era. Some very interesting things should happen this year.

Thought he would list the Favre situation with the Jets. The PaperAirplanes can't support Brett's present contract. They will be like 10 mil over with Brett's deal on board.

Brandt's site in one of the better ones out there. His source of leaks is first class.

[Guiness]

Great article. I need to read more of his stuff, even if it doesn't deal much with 'between the lines' football stuff.

DT is still a good franchise value, quite low for it's importance to a team. While I think that number will go up, I disagree with him that it will be because of the contracts those two Browns have. I don't see either of them playing under their current contracts next year.

He's quite right about RB - LT and Edge are both dicey. I don't know about Lewis.

Maybe the most surprising number is Joe Thomas. How did he end up with a cap number that high from a rookie deal? Wiki tells me he signed a 6yr $43mil contract, so his avg number should be around $7mil. Having a number around $9mil now tells me whoever is writing the contracts in Cleveland is not doing a great job.

[Patler]

Maybe the most surprising number is Joe Thomas. How did he end up with a cap number that high from a rookie deal? Wiki tells me he signed a 6yr $43mil contract, so his avg number should be around $7mil. Having a number around $9mil now tells me whoever is writing the contracts in Cleveland is not doing a great job.

Joe Thomas most likely had such a high cap number for the same reason that Aaron Rodgers was third highest among QBs, a desire by their teams to pay more of their compensation out of the current year cap than out of the caps of later years. Rodgers cap value goes down next year and the year after. More and more teams are adopting a "pay as you go" philosophy, using roster bonuses and higher intitial salaries to use up the present cap dollars while deferring less to future years.

The cap guy in Cleveland might be doing exactly what the team wants, keep their options open in the future without the burdens of huge prorated signing bonuses for years and years in the future. It is exactly what the Packers have done with all of their large contracts since signing Woodson.

[Guiness]

Joe Thomas most likely had such a high cap number for the same reason that Aaron Rodgers was third highest among QBs, a desire by their teams to pay more of their compensation out of the current year cap than out of the caps of later years. Rodgers cap value goes down next year and the year after. More and more teams are adopting a "pay as you go" philosophy, using roster bonuses and higher intitial salaries to use up the present cap dollars while deferring less to future years.

The cap guy in Cleveland might be doing exactly what the team wants, keep their options open in the future without the burdens of huge prorated signing bonuses for years and years in the future. It is exactly what the Packers have done with all of their large contracts since signing Woodson.

I know what you're talking about, and agree that contract like the ones you describe are becoming more popular, and make sense for veterans in their 2nd or 3rd contract. But don't rookies usually have more backloaded deals, so that if they don't pan out they can be cut before the big money comes due?

Seemed to me that the front loading followed two paths:
-big hit up front, in the form of a roster bonus as opposed to signing bonus, then smaller numbers for the life of the contract
-equal numbers through the life of the contract, with no 'balloon payment' if it is terminated early. In its extreme form, a CW type of contract with weekly bonuses for being on the active roster i.e. pay for play

I always though the first method was fraught with disaster, because a player could collect the up front payment, then down the road look at his annual salary, decide he's underpaid, and hold out.

*shrug* Seems like they put the 'hit' in the second year of his contract.

[Cheesehead Craig]

Interesting how low the RB numbers are. I would have thought there would have been higher salaries out there. Then again, AP hasn't signed his "holy sh*t" contract yet.

[Guiness]

Interesting how low the RB numbers are. I would have thought there would have been higher salaries out there. Then again, AP hasn't signed his "holy sh*t" contract yet.

Yes, his contract will affect things, but the top three mentioned will be off the books by then.

There just aren't many game changers at RB that differentiate themselves enough from the rest to warrant monster contracts. LT did, and that's why his # is $1mil more than the next guy - who certainly won't be collecting that paycheck again.

To pull in the monster numbers, a guy has to perform at a top level for a while, and get name recognition.

RB's, for the most part, break down before they get the second part of that equation. If they stay in the league, it's at a reduced role. There are a couple of exceptions, like LT, Sean Alexander, Edge, and AP if he lasts another couple of years. Most, however, are like Ronnie Brown, who's injuries will probably derail his career, or Cadillac Williams, who had a couple of good years, but seems to have disappeared.

[Patler]

I know what you're talking about, and agree that contract like the ones you describe are becoming more popular, and make sense for veterans in their 2nd or 3rd contract. But don't rookies usually have more backloaded deals, so that if they don't pan out they can be cut before the big money comes due?

Seemed to me that the front loading followed two paths:
-big hit up front, in the form of a roster bonus as opposed to signing bonus, then smaller numbers for the life of the contract
-equal numbers through the life of the contract, with no 'balloon payment' if it is terminated early. In its extreme form, a CW type of contract with weekly bonuses for being on the active roster i.e. pay for play

I always though the first method was fraught with disaster, because a player could collect the up front payment, then down the road look at his annual salary, decide he's underpaid, and hold out.

*shrug* Seems like they put the 'hit' in the second year of his contract.

With the real high draft picks like Thomas, palyers agents demand guaranteed money, which used to be a substantial signing bonus. Now, more and more teams (due to the significantly increased caps over the last 3-4 years) have given the guaranteed money as a roster bonus and/or first year salary. Thus, the big cap hit. I think that is what happened to Thomas. Either way it is about the same guaranteed money, the only difference is which year(s) it hits the cap.

You are right, players tend to look at what they are getting at the time, rather than average over their contract, or the total amount received to date. Teams just have to hold their ground when the player is being unreasonable, and I think more and more are.

[Guiness]

Teams just have to hold their ground when the player is being unreasonable, and I think more and more are.

Not everyone...

*cough cough* Chicago *cough cough* Hester

[Waldo]

Most first round picks get paid the same way. The NFL has had a rookie salary cap for years, and it is pretty small, well below how much a first rounder makes average/yr in their contract (~3-5M cap per team). To work around it they get a good first year salary (~1-2m) and no other bonuses as rookies. Right after the season when the rookie cap no longer applies, there is a huge guaranteed option bonus that essentially acts as a signing bonus. The workaround has essentially rendered the rookie cap meaningless, and is the reason that first round rookie contracts extended from 5 years to 6 years, since 5 years is the longest a bonus can be spread, the clock on that doesn't start ticking until the bonus is paid in their second year. Essentially Thomas got paid a million or two as a rookie, then has a 5 year 41-42M contract tacked on for the rest of it.

Hawk was the same way.

[Fritz]

]Brandt was a real snake when he was in the Packer organization.[/i] But no one can say that he didn't know his stuff.

This will be one of the most interesting off-seasons of the salary cap era. Some very interesting things should happen this year.

Thought he would list the Favre situation with the Jets. The PaperAirplanes can't support Brett's present contract. They will be like 10 mil over with Brett's deal on board.

Brandt's site in one of the better ones out there. His source of leaks is first class.

Can you elaborate on this, KY? I did not know/hear anything about this.

[Rastak]

]Brandt was a real snake when he was in the Packer organization.[/i] But no one can say that he didn't know his stuff.

This will be one of the most interesting off-seasons of the salary cap era. Some very interesting things should happen this year.

Thought he would list the Favre situation with the Jets. The PaperAirplanes can't support Brett's present contract. They will be like 10 mil over with Brett's deal on board.

Brandt's site in one of the better ones out there. His source of leaks is first class.

Can you elaborate on this, KY? I did not know/hear anything about this.




Elaborate on which part? (Yes, I know I'm not KY!)

As to Favre, the Jets are WAY over the cap. The end of Feb they have to get down about 10 mil. They gotta start cutting big time if Favre is still on the books.


If the Jet's do all that cutting then he quits? Well, the answer to that lopsided equation does not require further elaboration as Paul Harvey might have said.

It might make the most sense to cut his ass, rather than cut players to keep him until he quits, which I think is possible.

[Fritz]

I clumsily tried to italicize the section I wanted KY to elaborate on - the bit about Brandt being, uh, not-so-nice, or however you want to put it.

I get the Favre thing okay.

[Rastak]

I clumsily tried to italicize the section I wanted KY to elaborate on - the bit about Brandt being, uh, not-so-nice, or however you want to put it.

I get the Favre thing okay.

I'm not KY.....LOL.....but it seems I'm all ya got!


Perhaps he was talking about his reputation on being hard to get along with?


I thought the dude did a good job, hence he wasn't my favorite and was glad to see him go. :wink:

[Fritz]

I clumsily tried to italicize the section I wanted KY to elaborate on - the bit about Brandt being, uh, not-so-nice, or however you want to put it.

I get the Favre thing okay.

I'm not KY.....LOL.....but it seems I'm all ya got!


Perhaps he was talking about his reputation on being hard to get along with?


I thought the dude did a good job, hence he wasn't my favorite and was glad to see him go. :wink:

See, I'd never heard he was hard to get along with. Hmm. That helps explain perhaps why he's not in Green Bay any more. I always thought it was odd that they let a guy who was so clearly good at his job go so easily.

[Rastak]

I clumsily tried to italicize the section I wanted KY to elaborate on - the bit about Brandt being, uh, not-so-nice, or however you want to put it.

I get the Favre thing okay.

I'm not KY.....LOL.....but it seems I'm all ya got!


Perhaps he was talking about his reputation on being hard to get along with?


I thought the dude did a good job, hence he wasn't my favorite and was glad to see him go. :wink:

See, I'd never heard he was hard to get along with. Hmm. That helps explain perhaps why he's not in Green Bay any more. I always thought it was odd that they let a guy who was so clearly good at his job go so easily.


From what I got here, he was a prick. GBM has some story I believe.


I think Ted had his fill and got him shitcanned.

[Waldo]

A few things that kick in this year:

1) No backloading contracts. Teh rules regarding uncapped football have kicked in and the Deion rule prevents excess contract burden being shifted into uncapped years. This severaly limits the amount of "restructuring" possible for teams close to the cap.

2) The 30% rule (something like that) applies. No player can make more than 30% more salary next year than they made this year (unless they get a new contract). Same thing, no shifting money to next year.

3) There isn't much worry about losing players next year. With players reaching UFA eligibility later (6 instead of 4 years), if guys like Jennings are hard to sign they can be tendered RFA amounts when their contract ends. Teams also get either 2 or 3 franchise tags (I forget which one)

4) With there being no cap next year, there is no reason not to spend every penny of cap space this year, and their is no good reason to excessively frontload (though no need to backload either). Saving up for a rainy day is pointless unless your owner is broke. Every contract can be written to abuse the uncapped year to the fullest, spend as much as the rules allow on each contract next year.

5) Good teams don't get many FA next year. The top teams in the league can only take as many players from the FA pool as they give. No buying a team.

6) With the looming CBA talks set to occur next offseason, holding out for more money next season is definitely not in the players best interest. They will already look greedy enough at the bargaining table, several players holding out trying to cash in on uncapped football is a very bad idea. If the uncapped year is going to force a bunch of holdouts, this is the year.

7) Many have speculated that FA in uncapped years will be a wild free-for -all madness. With the RFA rules, extra tags, and no cap problems, the only players on the market will be old bad ones that nobody wants and busts that finally can be cut without screwing up the cap. FA is going to be seriously lame. This is the wild year for FA. Teams flush with cap space and no reason not to burn it all. And all the holding out and money problems will occur this season.

Buckle up, with a month away from the madness.

[Fritz]

A few things that kick in this year:

1) No backloading contracts. Teh rules regarding uncapped football have kicked in and the Deion rule prevents excess contract burden being shifted into uncapped years. This severaly limits the amount of "restructuring" possible for teams close to the cap.

2) The 30% rule (something like that) applies. No player can make more than 30% more salary next year than they made this year (unless they get a new contract). Same thing, no shifting money to next year.

3) There isn't much worry about losing players next year. With players reaching UFA eligibility later (6 instead of 4 years), if guys like Jennings are hard to sign they can be tendered RFA amounts when their contract ends. Teams also get either 2 or 3 franchise tags (I forget which one)

4) With there being no cap next year, there is no reason not to spend every penny of cap space this year, and their is no good reason to excessively frontload (though no need to backload either). Saving up for a rainy day is pointless unless your owner is broke. Every contract can be written to abuse the uncapped year to the fullest, spend as much as the rules allow on each contract next year.

5) Good teams don't get many FA next year. The top teams in the league can only take as many players from the FA pool as they give. No buying a team.

6) With the looming CBA talks set to occur next offseason, holding out for more money next season is definitely not in the players best interest. They will already look greedy enough at the bargaining table, several players holding out trying to cash in on uncapped football is a very bad idea. If the uncapped year is going to force a bunch of holdouts, this is the year.

7) Many have speculated that FA in uncapped years will be a wild free-for -all madness. With the RFA rules, extra tags, and no cap problems, the only players on the market will be old bad ones that nobody wants and busts that finally can be cut without screwing up the cap. FA is going to be seriously lame. This is the wild year for FA. Teams flush with cap space and no reason not to burn it all. And all the holding out and money problems will occur this season.

Buckle up, with a month away from the madness.

Sailor Ted will go on a drunken spree! Peppers, Suggs, Scott. maybe an RFA like the Skins' guy (Golston?), uhhh....that trade for Tony Gonzalez, uhhh....spend, spend, spend!! This is the year, Ted baby!

[KYPack]

KY back in for Ras.

(I was out skiin' and saw 11 deer on the nature trail behind my palatial estate. Trees covered in ice and 14' of snow on the ground. Beautiful, ya know)

Brandt is a guy with a rep for being a jerk, as GBM & other locals have said.

What got him canned was his own political maneuvering during the whole Jones debacle. Brandt decided to align himself with Jones initially, then made a move for the Packer Presidency vacated by Jones.

TT shrewdly sniffed Brandt's moves. Thompson got his own guy in as Pres, & got Brandt ousted. The reporting structure was altered, so Ball (the new guy in Brandt's old gig) reports to TT. Some observers think Brandt was a source of leaks. Brandt must also have his own good sources, cause there is a lot of good Packer scoop on Brandt's NFL site.

Thompson has learned his way around the office and is very sharp politically. He's a power guy and not afraid to make moves.

Just ask Brandt.

[Rastak]

KY back in for Ras.

(I was out skiin' and saw 11 deer on the nature trail behind my palatial estate. Trees covered in ice and 14' of snow on the ground. Beautiful, ya know)

Brandt is a guy with a rep for being a jerk, as GBM & other locals have said.

What got him canned was his own political maneuvering during the whole Jones debacle. Brandt decided to align himself with Jones initially, then made a move for the Packer Presidency vacated by Jones.

TT shrewdly sniffed Brandt's moves. Thompson got his own guy in as Pres, & got Brandt ousted. The reporting structure was altered, so Ball (the new guy in Brandt's old gig) reports to TT. Some observers think Brandt was a source of leaks. Brandt must also have his own good sources, cause there is a lot of good Packer scoop on Brandt's NFL site.

Thompson has learned his way around the office and is very sharp politically. He's a power guy and not afraid to make moves.

Just ask Brandt.


Thanks KY, I tried to hold down the fort the best I could. :)

[BZnDallas]

A few things that kick in this year:

1) No backloading contracts. Teh rules regarding uncapped football have kicked in and the Deion rule prevents excess contract burden being shifted into uncapped years. This severaly limits the amount of "restructuring" possible for teams close to the cap.

2) The 30% rule (something like that) applies. No player can make more than 30% more salary next year than they made this year (unless they get a new contract). Same thing, no shifting money to next year.

3) There isn't much worry about losing players next year. With players reaching UFA eligibility later (6 instead of 4 years), if guys like Jennings are hard to sign they can be tendered RFA amounts when their contract ends. Teams also get either 2 or 3 franchise tags (I forget which one)

4) With there being no cap next year, there is no reason not to spend every penny of cap space this year, and their is no good reason to excessively frontload (though no need to backload either). Saving up for a rainy day is pointless unless your owner is broke. Every contract can be written to abuse the uncapped year to the fullest, spend as much as the rules allow on each contract next year.

5) Good teams don't get many FA next year. The top teams in the league can only take as many players from the FA pool as they give. No buying a team.

6) With the looming CBA talks set to occur next offseason, holding out for more money next season is definitely not in the players best interest. They will already look greedy enough at the bargaining table, several players holding out trying to cash in on uncapped football is a very bad idea. If the uncapped year is going to force a bunch of holdouts, this is the year.

7) Many have speculated that FA in uncapped years will be a wild free-for -all madness. With the RFA rules, extra tags, and no cap problems, the only players on the market will be old bad ones that nobody wants and busts that finally can be cut without screwing up the cap. FA is going to be seriously lame. This is the wild year for FA. Teams flush with cap space and no reason not to burn it all. And all the holding out and money problems will occur this season.

Buckle up, with a month away from the madness.



I've got my popcorn ready!!!!! :drma:

[KYPack]

KY back in for Ras.

(I was out skiin' and saw 11 deer on the nature trail behind my palatial estate. Trees covered in ice and 14' of snow on the ground. Beautiful, ya know)


Just ask Brandt.


Thanks KY, I tried to hold down the fort the best I could. :)

Uuf da.

Ooh yah. Don cha know.

Not bad for a hoofter, Ras.

[SnakeLH2006]

Brandt is a sneaky one, but that dude knows numbers.

Snake's take:

The best values for cap averages are at DE/DL/OL.....as far as value goes. Well, that is our 3 top weaknesses for the Pack in 09. Easy to say, hard to do....Let's grab up at least one of those positions for a top notch starter for 4 years in FA and be done with it. Cash is great to have, if you spend it. I'm sure the FA negotiations will be resolved before the 2010 labor agreement salvo occurs, but if not, fuck it. The 10% chance that Jerry Jones has his way and the NFL goes the way of baseball's retarded ass major-market leader scenario is fucked, but enough to say go for it now and spend that cap space. God help us all.