Al Harris' Statistical Redemption

[pbmax]

The Return Of Al Harris (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2009/return-al-harris)

26 Jan 2009
Al Harris Returns

by Aaron Schatz

With some downtime between the Championship games and the Super Bowl, I thought it would be interesting to take a look at our game charting stats for cornerbacks in 2008. Unlike the numbers which will appear in Pro Football Prospectus 2009, these stats haven't yet been adjusted for opponent, and they don't account for zone coverage and double coverage. Right now, I'm simply judging by which defender the charter lists in the DEFENDER1 column. Plays marked Hit in Motion, Tipped at Line, or Thrown Away were removed. I also removed screen passes, because if a cornerback is blocked off the line during a wide receiver screen, that's not really indicative of his ability to cover his man on a standard pass play.

Rather than use a minimum number of charted passes to be ranked, I tried to just take out cornerbacks who primarily played the nickel. In general, that meant players who played the whole season but didn't start at least half their team's games. The top nickel backs of the season included William Gay of Pittsburgh, Joselio Hanson of Philadelphia, and a player who had done terrible in these numbers in the past, Kevin Dockery of the New York Giants.

Here are the top 10 starting cornerbacks in terms of Success Rate:

Player..........Team.....Charted
................................Passes...Yd/Pa...Success Rate

31-A.Harris..........GB.....38.......5.0......79%
24-S.Brown..........PHI....55.......4.6......73%
21-C.Woodson.....GB.....57.......6.4......66%
22-S.Rolle...........BAL....40.......4.4.......65%
26-A.Winfield.......MIN....59.......6.0......64%
21-N.Asomugha...OAK....26.......5.8......64%
23-C.Webster......NYG....65.......5.1......63%
22-C.Rogers........WAS...92.......5.6......63%
24-D.Foxworth......ATL....48.......5.6......63%
20-N.Harper.........TEN....90.......5.7......62%

In 2007, we called Al Harris' Pro Bowl selection a "lifetime achievement award." He finished 74th in Success Rate, 73rd in Adjusted Yards per Pass (I'm listing here the adjusted numbers from Pro Football Prospectus 2008). Although he was injured for part of 2008, he clearly rebounded to his previous level of performance when he was healthy. His numbers would be even better without the fourth quarter of the relatively meaningless Week 17 game against Detroit, when he gave up a combined 82 yards on three complete passes to... yikes... John Standeford.

[pbmax]

I am not sure I ever posted this, but kudos to the Packers for getting Al healthy again so that he did not further injure himself. And a tremendous job by Al for playing at a high level despite the injury and layoff. I am pretty sure he will be sticking around this year, zone or no.

[Kiwon]

I think the quality of Al Harris' play after returning from injury did not get enough attention.

He's a great pro and the perfect example that a young football team needs.

[Bretsky]

I think the quality of Al Harris' play after returning from injury did not get enough attention.

He's a great pro and the perfect example that a young football team needs.

The quality of Al's play was very high before and after the injury. I never had understood the lack of love for Al this year. He was stellar. He's still a player and certainly better than Tramon Williams at this point.

[pbmax]

I think the quality of Al Harris' play after returning from injury did not get enough attention.

He's a great pro and the perfect example that a young football team needs.

The quality of Al's play was very high before and after the injury. I never had understood the lack of love for Al this year. He was stellar. He's still a player and certainly better than Tramon Williams at this point.
He is better than Tramon, but Tramon is getting to the point where playing is the only way he will make the jump to consistent play. Al had a better second half than first to my eyes, but it wasn't a huge difference. He does have trouble with players he cannot manhandle, that hasn't changed since last year.

[bobblehead]

And who is it that he can't manhandle?? Al is top notch. Al handles anyone at anytime as well as anyone in the league. That whole line of thinking came because he lost his cool against TO after getting jobbed on a call, and Plexico shoothisass made spectacular catch after ridiculous play in the biggest game of the year while Al was all over him most of the time.

I only need one stat to tell me how good Al Harris is. When I watch games teams throw more passes at Charles Woodson then they do at Al Harris. When we design a DPlan, Al is on Andre Johnson, Al is on Calvin Johnson. I can't say who Al is on most of the time, cuz the camera is somewhere else....like where the ball is being thrown.

[SnakeLH2006]

I for one, will admit I was done on Al early on the year, and still think Tramon needs to get more play-time. But Al really looked as good as I can remember when he came back from his injury and played the part well.

Kudos to Al and also to Wood (as he was #3 on this list)...dayummm!!

Since both those guys lost their speed years ago (some may argue Al never had it) I could see both those guys performing at a high level for 2 more years. Other than Darrell Green (dude was a burner in his 40's yet), most CB's are history after 30 or so, yet these 2 dudes seem to feed off each other, and compete on EVERY ball thrown.

Good stuff though. The Snake luvs the stats.

[pbmax]

And who is it that he can't manhandle?? Al is top notch. Al handles anyone at anytime as well as anyone in the league. That whole line of thinking came because he lost his cool against TO after getting jobbed on a call, and Plexico shoothisass made spectacular catch after ridiculous play in the biggest game of the year while Al was all over him most of the time.

I only need one stat to tell me how good Al Harris is. When I watch games teams throw more passes at Charles Woodson then they do at Al Harris. When we design a DPlan, Al is on Andre Johnson, Al is on Calvin Johnson. I can't say who Al is on most of the time, cuz the camera is somewhere else....like where the ball is being thrown.
Plaxico, Terrell Owens and I expect, Larry Fitzgerald. Anyone big enough to absorb, avoid or counter Al's bump.

[bobblehead]

We must agree to disagree. Whereas you can show me a couple games to support the arguement, I could point out a lot to disavow it. That Dallas game with TO wasn't a matter of TO being too much, he just got in al's head. I also for some unexplicable reason (wood out??) saw Al in zone several times that game...that just made no sense. And for Burress, I watched that game several times. Al was all over him. Buress and Manning were just in a zone that day with perfect passes and fingertip catches.

I have seen harris disrupt the routes of guys like TO and Burress plenty. Calvin Johnson is much more a stud than either of them and he did OK against him. Remember we are talking about the elite of the elite as your case point that al struggles against them...these guys destroy pretty much anyone in single coverage. Al holds his own and I'm willing to concede this won't be the best defense for him, I won't say he isn't going to still be very good.

[Bretsky]

I love Al Harris; but I do agree that he has a harder time against guys that are physically stronger than him. I have the same view as pb on this one.
Al Harris had no advantage with the jams against these guys and if Al has no jam advantage against a top tier guy he has challenges

I expected him to do well versus Calvin Johnson.........as I expect him to excel against nearly everybody. Johnson is a great route runner with great speed......but Al jammed him well all day and techniq'd him to death. There was no way for CJ to prepare for what Al was bringing....well it probably helped that he had a TJ Rubley like QB throwing to him as well

[Fritz]

Isn't there a way for linebackers to stay in a zone and let the corners go mano-a-mano?

Go Al! We at Packerrats still have a boner for ya!

[bobblehead]

I love Al Harris; but I do agree that he has a harder time against guys that are physically stronger than him. I have the same view as pb on this one.
Al Harris had no advantage with the jams against these guys and if Al has no jam advantage against a top tier guy he has challenges

I expected him to do well versus Calvin Johnson.........as I expect him to excel against nearly everybody. Johnson is a great route runner with great speed......but Al jammed him well all day and techniq'd him to death. There was no way for CJ to prepare for what Al was bringing....well it probably helped that he had a TJ Rubley like QB throwing to him as well

calvin is bigger faster and just as strong as TO. If al struggles against those guys why would you expect him to do well against calvin? And again...no matter the style of play everyone has problems with a top tier guy. That is why they are top tier.

[The Shadow]

I still think Harris' days are numbered.
Be shocked if he plays for us more than one more year.

[Bretsky]

I love Al Harris; but I do agree that he has a harder time against guys that are physically stronger than him. I have the same view as pb on this one.
Al Harris had no advantage with the jams against these guys and if Al has no jam advantage against a top tier guy he has challenges

I expected him to do well versus Calvin Johnson.........as I expect him to excel against nearly everybody. Johnson is a great route runner with great speed......but Al jammed him well all day and techniq'd him to death. There was no way for CJ to prepare for what Al was bringing....well it probably helped that he had a TJ Rubley like QB throwing to him as well

calvin is bigger faster and just as strong as TO. If al struggles against those guys why would you expect him to do well against calvin? And again...no matter the style of play everyone has problems with a top tier guy. That is why they are top tier.


Because TO is better at getting past the jam; more experience and IMO more strength to do so.

[gbgary]

I still think Harris' days are numbered.
Be shocked if he plays for us more than one more year.

the days are numbered for anyone over 30.

al's been great and if he covering guys man-to-man he wins the battle 90% of the time or better. TO only hurt us when he was in the slot, with someone else covering him, or in motion. dallas made that adjustment cuz he couldn't get open. for some reason the Pack played a lot of zone the second half of the '08 season.

[The Shadow]

I just don't think he's going to last much longer.
He can't afford to lose even a 1/4 step at this point.

[bobblehead]

I just don't think he's going to last much longer.
He can't afford to lose even a 1/4 step at this point.
Makes sense...he is 34 I think and that screams "about to drop off" but he hasn't yet and he has a fair contract. We cut him when we must, not a day earlier.

[Partial]

I love Al Harris; but I do agree that he has a harder time against guys that are physically stronger than him. I have the same view as pb on this one.
Al Harris had no advantage with the jams against these guys and if Al has no jam advantage against a top tier guy he has challenges

I expected him to do well versus Calvin Johnson.........as I expect him to excel against nearly everybody. Johnson is a great route runner with great speed......but Al jammed him well all day and techniq'd him to death. There was no way for CJ to prepare for what Al was bringing....well it probably helped that he had a TJ Rubley like QB throwing to him as well

calvin is bigger faster and just as strong as TO. If al struggles against those guys why would you expect him to do well against calvin? And again...no matter the style of play everyone has problems with a top tier guy. That is why they are top tier.

I completely diagree. Calvin is a long strider and does not have quick burst like TO. I also doubt he is anywhere near as strong. Give TO some credit, he's a top 10 receiver in NFL history... Calvin hasn't done anything yet!

[bobblehead]

I love Al Harris; but I do agree that he has a harder time against guys that are physically stronger than him. I have the same view as pb on this one.
Al Harris had no advantage with the jams against these guys and if Al has no jam advantage against a top tier guy he has challenges

I expected him to do well versus Calvin Johnson.........as I expect him to excel against nearly everybody. Johnson is a great route runner with great speed......but Al jammed him well all day and techniq'd him to death. There was no way for CJ to prepare for what Al was bringing....well it probably helped that he had a TJ Rubley like QB throwing to him as well

calvin is bigger faster and just as strong as TO. If al struggles against those guys why would you expect him to do well against calvin? And again...no matter the style of play everyone has problems with a top tier guy. That is why they are top tier.

I completely diagree. Calvin is a long strider and does not have quick burst like TO. I also doubt he is anywhere near as strong. Give TO some credit, he's a top 10 receiver in NFL history... Calvin hasn't done anything yet!

First off, I was comparing the "type" of reciever. Second if you think TO could beat Calvin in a 10, 20, 30 or any yard race you are nuts. TO probably has the upper body strength, but Calvin is probably stronger in the lower. (probably as I can't find numbers). But none of that is the point.

The point is that Al Harris is still really effing good and the fact that guys like TO and Plax had a good game on him once isn't evidence that he blows, its evidence that Al is asked to cover the elite reciever all by his lonesome and wins most of the time. He is getting old and when he can't handle the job he will be gone, such is life. But he did handle Andre Johnson better than any CB in the league last year. He definately did better at any point than Woodsen did against steve smith.

[bobblehead]

Best Pro season:

Calvin:

2008 16 16 78 1,331 17.1 96T 12

TO:

2000 14 13 97 1,451 15.0 69T 13

Very comparable except one note. CJ broke 1300 in his second season, TO broke 1000 once in his first 4 seasons. Is TO better than Calvin RIGHT NOW? I doubt it, but its at the very least close.

[cheesner]

Best Pro season:

Calvin:

2008 16 16 78 1,331 17.1 96T 12

TO:

2000 14 13 97 1,451 15.0 69T 13

Very comparable except one note. CJ broke 1300 in his second season, TO broke 1000 once in his first 4 seasons. Is TO better than Calvin RIGHT NOW? I doubt it, but its at the very least close.
TO is playing for the cowboys with Romo as QB
was on Eagles with McNabb throwing to him
on the 49ers with Steve Young as QB

CJ on the Lions with (who was that again?) throwing to him.

Huge advantage for TO.

CJ is young but is looking much better at this point in time, as well as at comparing him in relative time. But TO was a bit of a late bloomer in the NFL and didn't get really good until his 4-5 year.