McShay predicting a frustrating draft?

[DonHutson]

I'm thinking the best bang for our buck would be one of the OT's or Raji, but in McShay's new mock they're all gone.

1. Detroit - Matt Stafford
2. St. Louis - Jason Smith
3. Kansas City - Aaron Curry
4. Seattle - BJ Raji
5. Cleveland - Everette Brown
6. Cincinnati - Andre Smith
7. Oakland - Michael Crabtree
8. Jacksonville - Eugene Monroe

9. Green Bay - Malcolm Jenkins

Nothing wrong with Jenkins as a consolation prize, but he doesn't help the personnel transition on D at all. The other options would be Maybin or Orakpo. And I would be surprised if Jenkins falls to us as he predicts. I can see him going to Cleveland at #5, leaving us our choice of pass rushers (if your glass is half full) or stuck with one of the pass rushers (if you're wary that any of those guys is a top 10 player).

He has Maybin at #11 to Buffalo, Orakpo #13 to Washington, Brian Cushing #14 to Houston, and Tyson Jackson (an ideal 3-4 DE) to Tampa at #19.

He also posted a 2nd round that deprives us of some good options. He has Clay Matthews (#23 to New England) and Larry English (#24 to Atlanta) going in the first, and NT Ron Brace to Jacksonville at #39 - two picks ahead of the Pack.

So I was hoping for Raji and Matthews or English under my Christmas-in-April tree. My second choice would be J. Smith or Monroe with Brace in the 2nd. I guess McShay is telling me I was a bad boy. If Jenkins is still there, I'd be OK. But I'll believe that when I see it. I'm sensing a lump of Orakpo in my stocking.

[rbaloha1]

Under this scenario Maybin is the pick. Crabtree falling merits trade up consideration.

[wist43]

Crabtree won't fall that far, and I can't see Brown going in the top 10... I guess I could see him going in the top 10, but I don't consider him a top 10 pick.

[DonHutson]

Crabtree won't fall that far, and I can't see Brown going in the top 10... I guess I could see him going in the top 10, but I don't consider him a top 10 pick.

Hopefully, Seattle takes Crabtree. It would help if KC took Sanchez, but I kind of think they won't. Really any of the teams 5 - 8 could conceivably take Raji. Actually it wouldn't surprise me if he went as high as #3.

The best case scenario would be something like this:

1. DET - Stafford
2. STL - OT
3. KC - Sanchez
4. SEA - Crabtree
5. CLE - Curry
6. CIN - OT
7. OAK - Jenkins or Maclin, or something weird
8. JAX - OT/Raji
9. GB - Raji/OT

That's possible, but my gut tells me Sanchez is going to do an Aaron Rodgers and the Cheifs will screw everything up for us.

[Joemailman]

If McShay is right, then I think you take Orakpo or Maybin. Really though, I think Curry will be available when the Packers pick, and he would be perfect for one of the OLB positions.

I think the Browns take Jenkins at #5, and Seattle takes Crabtree at #4. That means that Jax takes Raji, and one of the OT's fall to the Packers.

[Joemailman]

Crabtree won't fall that far, and I can't see Brown going in the top 10... I guess I could see him going in the top 10, but I don't consider him a top 10 pick.

Hopefully, Seattle takes Crabtree. It would help if KC took Sanchez, but I kind of think they won't. Really any of the teams 5 - 8 could conceivably take Raji. Actually it wouldn't surprise me if he went as high as #3.

The best case scenario would be something like this:

1. DET - Stafford
2. STL - OT
3. KC - Sanchez
4. SEA - Crabtree
5. CLE - Curry
6. CIN - OT
7. OAK - Jenkins or Maclin, or something weird
8. JAX - OT/Raji
9. GB - Raji/OT

That's possible, but my gut tells me Sanchez is going to do an Aaron Rodgers and the Cheifs will screw everything up for us.

If Sanchez doesn't go 2-3, he falls to SF at #10. Perhaps TB at #19 wants him enough to trade their 2nd round pick (#50) to move up to #9. Packers could then trade their 4th round pick to move up the 2nd round a few spots. That would give them Tyson in the 1st round, Ron Brace early 2nd round, perhaps an OT at #50, and would still have 2 3rd round picks.

TT will thank me some day.

[run pMc]

Naturally, these lists will change by week, as each Pro Day passes and the combine arrive.

Having said that, I don't see Jenkins getting past OAK. They are going to have to make a decision on Nnamdi. If he's not there or Al Davis agrees with me that Javon is washed up Maclin is the guess.

Everette Brown at #5 seems high to me, unless he tests lights out...but I'm often wrong with these things.

Don't know if TT picks a NT like Raji at #9...my guess is he's gone by then. If TT picks Jenkins I don't think that's horrible...Al and Woodson have been so good for so long I'm wondering how long it can last. Last year many talked about boosting the CB depth and TT picked Lee. I'm not convinced that he's the heir apparent. I think TT needs to keep working on the OL & DL. I wouldn't be shocked if TT picks a guy like Cushing or Maybin to be a 3-4 OLB.

[SMACKTALKIE]

I can't imagine why the Pack would want Crabtree given their current WR crop. Especially if Nelson really was injured all season and may emerge this coming season.

[Zool]

I can't imagine why the Pack would want Crabtree given their current WR crop. Especially if Nelson really was injured all season and may emerge this coming season.

Same reason the Vikes drafted Peterson even though they had a 1200 yard RB on the team. If you can take a guy who's that good, you just do it and figure out where to put everyone later.

[Partial]

Jenkins would fill a huge need and be an immediate upgrade for the nickle spot.

How is that not immediately helping the transition? Al has at best one year left, if that, as he is borderline useless in zone coverage. Jenkins is a really nice corner prospect.

[Bossman641]

I can't imagine why the Pack would want Crabtree given their current WR crop. Especially if Nelson really was injured all season and may emerge this coming season.

Maybe I missed something that came out after the season. Was Jordy playing with injuries all year? Or did you mean James Jones?

[SMACKTALKIE]

I can't imagine why the Pack would want Crabtree given their current WR crop. Especially if Nelson really was injured all season and may emerge this coming season.

Same reason the Vikes drafted Peterson even though they had a 1200 yard RB on the team. If you can take a guy who's that good, you just do it and figure out where to put everyone later.

I hear ya. Don't get me wrong, I'd love it if he made some sort of improbable, Randy Moss-like slide to no.22. I just see the Pack having more pressing needs on both lines.

[SMACKTALKIE]

I can't imagine why the Pack would want Crabtree given their current WR crop. Especially if Nelson really was injured all season and may emerge this coming season.

Maybe I missed something that came out after the season. Was Jordy playing with injuries all year? Or did you mean James Jones?

Perhaps I was wrong there, but I thought I read Jordy was fighting injuries this year.

[Joemailman]

Jenkins would fill a huge need and be an immediate upgrade for the nickle spot.

How is that not immediately helping the transition? Al has at best one year left, if that, as he is borderline useless in zone coverage. Jenkins is a really nice corner prospect.

You could certainly make a strong argument that Jenkins at #9 would be BPA. A lot of people think Cleveland will take him at #5. However, not since 2005 has a CB been taken in the top 10. Is Jenkins good enough to justify that high of a pick?

[cpk1994]

I can't imagine why the Pack would want Crabtree given their current WR crop. Especially if Nelson really was injured all season and may emerge this coming season.

Maybe I missed something that came out after the season. Was Jordy playing with injuries all year? Or did you mean James Jones?

Perhaps I was wrong there, but I thought I read Jordy was fighting injuries this year.Jones was the one who was injured, not Jordy.

[Guiness]

Not that everyone doesn't already know it, but guesses at the draft, even well educated ones, are worse than useless at this point.

The deck will be well shuffled at the combine. Like it or not, results there can and will change everything. For pretty much every position outside of QB, the results from there have huge implications. Look at the threads on this forum, posters often trot out combine numbers to prove that a guy has the necessary tools and athleticism.

/Captain Obvious :roll:

[Zool]

I can't imagine why the Pack would want Crabtree given their current WR crop. Especially if Nelson really was injured all season and may emerge this coming season.

Same reason the Vikes drafted Peterson even though they had a 1200 yard RB on the team. If you can take a guy who's that good, you just do it and figure out where to put everyone later.

I hear ya. Don't get me wrong, I'd love it if he made some sort of improbable, Randy Moss-like slide to no.22. I just see the Pack having more pressing needs on both lines.

I agree, I wouldnt trade up to get him, but if he slides they might not be able to pass him up. Seattle would be a good spot for him, but they need a lot of help too.

[sheepshead]

Not that everyone doesn't already know it, but guesses at the draft, even well educated ones, are worse than useless at this point.

The deck will be well shuffled at the combine. Like it or not, results there can and will change everything. For pretty much every position outside of QB, the results from there have huge implications. Look at the threads on this forum, posters often trot out combine numbers to prove that a guy has the necessary tools and athleticism.

/Captain Obvious :roll:

You betcha, more useless effort and speculation is put into the NFL draft than anything I have ever seen.

[bigcoz75]

I'm not an insider so I don't know where McShay had Michael johnson going, but i didn't see him in the first half of rd 1. I would love to see TT trade up to the bottom of the first or top of the 2nd to pick this guy up if he falls that far due to his production #s. I have a feeling he'll climb back up to the first half after putting up some freakish combine numbers though. Top ten measureables 2nd rd production. 6'7" 260 4.6 40
nice pick6 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z4wmLn7DNvM&feature=related
1:20 in coverage; vs. Eugene Monroe at the end of the clip http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KzKWDGf5-Hc

[red]

i don't think theres anyway we pick orakpo or johnson now that we've switched to 3-4. those two are strictly 4-3 de's and i haven't read about anyone talking about them being able to make the move to OLB.

and both those guys are way too small to be de's in a 3-4

either go for maybin there, or hope that sintim or english is there in the second. like i've said before, scouts say sintim is a perfect OLB in the 3-4 and he's already been playing that position for 4 years, so he won't have to make a big transition like brown or maybin would have to make

[red]

maybe if a guy like sen'derrick marks slips to the second he might be a good pick. he's a DT listed at 291, but until this year he played DE

[Joemailman]

i don't think theres anyway we pick orakpo or johnson now that we've switched to 3-4. those two are strictly 4-3 de's and i haven't read about anyone talking about them being able to make the move to OLB.

and both those guys are way too small to be de's in a 3-4

either go for maybin there, or hope that sintim or english is there in the second. like i've said before, scouts say sintim is a perfect OLB in the 3-4 and he's already been playing that position for 4 years, so he won't have to make a big transition like brown or maybin would have to make

Mayock has Orakpo listed as an OLB. Johnson he has listed at DE.

http://www.nfl.com/nflnetwork/story?id=09000d5d80dff358&template=with-video-with-comments&confirm=true

[red]

i guess mayock thinks you have to be 295 to be a DE, or 6'7

so to this douche, everette brown not only isn't the top DE, but he's also only the 5th best olb

i really hate mayock

[rbaloha1]

I'm not an insider so I don't know where McShay had Michael johnson going, but i didn't see him in the first half of rd 1. I would love to see TT trade up to the bottom of the first or top of the 2nd to pick this guy up if he falls that far due to his production #s. I have a feeling he'll climb back up to the first half after putting up some freakish combine numbers though. Top ten measureables 2nd rd production. 6'7" 260 4.6 40
nice pick6 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z4wmLn7DNvM&feature=related
1:20 in coverage; vs. Eugene Monroe at the end of the clip http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KzKWDGf5-Hc

Michael Johnson has only one year of productivity. Great physical abilities but too risky to pick.

[Lurker64]

i guess mayock thinks you have to be 295 to be a DE, or 6'7

so to this douche, everette brown not only isn't the top DE, but he's also only the 5th best olb

i really hate mayock

I think Mayock was just giving his opinions on which DEs could also be OLBs (Orakpo, Brown, Maybin) and which couldn't (Jackson, Johnson). That's entirely fair, considering roughly 1/3 of the NFL is looking for 3-4 personnel these days.

[Fritz]

Like everyone else, I have no idea who's going where, except I will say I highly, highly doubt the Lions take a QB with the #1 pick.

I will only say that if the draft plays out where a guy you really, really like is still sitting there, at, say, #7 overall, the Packers' third round pick would - using the trade value chart below - theoretically be enough (along of course with the #9 pick) to net them that #7 pick.

But to leapfrog over only two teams in exchange for a third round pick...wow, that's a lot to give up.

Still, high first round picks are sexy...BJ Raji, anyone?

[Fritz]

Uh, yeah, that trade value chart....

http://www.draftcountdown.com/features/Value-Chart.php

[Bretsky]

Jenkins would fill a huge need and be an immediate upgrade for the nickle spot.

How is that not immediately helping the transition? Al has at best one year left, if that, as he is borderline useless in zone coverage. Jenkins is a really nice corner prospect.

Calling Harris borderline useless is a silly comment; he played some zone in Phily and was alrigtht there. Also IMO silly to say he has "at best" one year left. He may adapt; maybe he transitions to safety. Maybe he transitions to a great nickle back while Williams excels in the current D.
Your thoughts may be right; but not a lot of evidence to support them.

I'm alright with Jenkins if he becomes a perrenial all pro.

TT needs to find a star in this draft; the positions won't matter as much as picking the right guy.

[cheesner]

Like everyone else, I have no idea who's going where, except I will say I highly, highly doubt the Lions take a QB with the #1 pick.

I will only say that if the draft plays out where a guy you really, really like is still sitting there, at, say, #7 overall, the Packers' third round pick would - using the trade value chart below - theoretically be enough (along of course with the #9 pick) to net them that #7 pick.

But to leapfrog over only two teams in exchange for a third round pick...wow, that's a lot to give up.

Still, high first round picks are sexy...BJ Raji, anyone?Cleveland traded a 2nd to go from 7 to 6 to draft TE Winslow in the 2004 draft.

[Fritz]

How'd that work out for them???

[Waldo]

If this is how the draft plays out, at our pick Oher, Sanchez, Maybin and Orapko will be available as well as Jenkins, Wells, and Moreno.

With SF a likely landing spot for Sanchez in this scenario, we are in the trade spot. Anybody but SF that wants Sanchez will be looking to trade with us to get him. SF might as well if TT gets an offer, then calls SF and tells them that if they want Sanchez, pony up a 3rd.

We can then drop back a few spots into the early teens and at least one of Oher, Maybin, Orapko, or Jenkins will be there. I wouldn't be too heartbroken if we took Moreno or Wells either. If we went back to the mid teens, Cushing is a real good option, he is a perfect 3-4 SOLB.

If we stayed put I gotta believe TT would take Oher. The senior bowl helped his stock. Even though he got beat a few times early, he was supposedly a pleasure for coaches to work with and took to coaching really well. He didn't make the same mistake twice. He is a physically perfect LT (possibly the best physical specimen this decade), TT takes chances on guys that need to be coached up a bit moreso than on guys that aren't ideal physical specimens.

[Fritz]

You make a good point, Waldo. I know some folks here will be irked if TT trades down, but if you can slide down three or four or even five spots and still get a top-notch player, and pick up a second rounder, why not?

Raji is likely gone. The OSU corner will possibly be gone. Those is the 12 - 14 range have much promise. Why not trade down unless someone you love is sitting at #9?

And I'd be fine with them drafting a left tackle, by the way. Kinda need those guys, and if we can get one who can sit for a year and learn, so much the better. Bring cliffy back one more year.

[cheesner]

How'd that work out for them???

Not well. But that is not the point.

GMs do not use trade value charts. Every trade opportunity is looked at on a case by case basis. The only way at TVC would work is if every team had every player ranked the same and was at about the same strength.

A potential superstar CB has less value to a team with a good secondary and an awful run D; and more value to a team with the reverse situation. So if TT is sitting there with Pick #9 and a team desperate for a CB at #12. If TT has 4 players ranked the same when it is time for his pick, and all at positions of need, what would be his price to drop back? A 5th perhaps? And what would #12 be willing to trade to get the one player that is will make a huge difference? A 2nd? The GM at #12 knows he may have only one more year to turn around his team or get fired. What is he willing to give up if he thinks it will allow him to retain his job?

[Waldo]

How'd that work out for them???

Not well. But that is not the point.

GMs do not use trade value charts. Every trade opportunity is looked at on a case by case basis. The only way at TVC would work is if every team had every player ranked the same and was at about the same strength.

A potential superstar CB has less value to a team with a good secondary and an awful run D; and more value to a team with the reverse situation. So if TT is sitting there with Pick #9 and a team desperate for a CB at #12. If TT has 4 players ranked the same when it is time for his pick, and all at positions of need, what would be his price to drop back? A 5th perhaps? And what would #12 be willing to trade to get the one player that is will make a huge difference? A 2nd? The GM at #12 knows he may have only one more year to turn around his team or get fired. What is he willing to give up if he thinks it will allow him to retain his job?

A CB isn't who teams would be eyeing up for a potential trade up if this is how the draft plays out. Franchise QB>>>>>>>Star CB, especially when evaluating the value of our pick, knowing with near certainty that the QB will come off the board at the next pick, whereas the CB may continue to slide.

[Lurker64]

GMs do not use trade value charts. Every trade opportunity is looked at on a case by case basis. The only way at TVC would work is if every team had every player ranked the same and was at about the same strength.

I believe that a lot of GMs use some variant of a trade value chart to actually figure out how many 6th round picks need to be swapped for fourth round picks, etc. to make a trade reasonable, and some of the picky details, but nobody's actually bound by the chart (since almost all trades are "won" by the chart by a factor of 10-100 points). Teams offer things that are nuts by the chart all the time (like when Cleveland was trying to trade up for Quinn), but their are certain truisms that GMs tend to follow like "The mth pick in the nth round this year is approximately worth the mth pick in the (n-1)th pick next year".

I believe actual trades are judged on the basis of teams establishing tiers of players (like what NFP published). A trade down is good if it involves reasonable compensation of picks, and you stand a reasonable chance of landing a player that's currently in your highest remaining tier. As in, "if you have four players right now ranked about the same, trading down three picks is a good idea if you're fairly compensated." Trading out of your current tier to a lower one is the sort of trade down that requires exceptional compensation from the team that's trading up (like what Cleveland had to give up for Winslow).

[Joemailman]

If this is how the draft plays out, at our pick Oher, Sanchez, Maybin and Orapko will be available as well as Jenkins, Wells, and Moreno.

With SF a likely landing spot for Sanchez in this scenario, we are in the trade spot. Anybody but SF that wants Sanchez will be looking to trade with us to get him. SF might as well if TT gets an offer, then calls SF and tells them that if they want Sanchez, pony up a 3rd.

We can then drop back a few spots into the early teens and at least one of Oher, Maybin, Orapko, or Jenkins will be there. I wouldn't be too heartbroken if we took Moreno or Wells either. If we went back to the mid teens, Cushing is a real good option, he is a perfect 3-4 SOLB.

Unfortunately, it doesn't look like any of the teams drafting in the early to mid teens are likely to be looking to spend a high 1st round pick on a QB.
http://www.gbnreport.com/weeklydraftorder.html

Tampa Bay at #19 might be interested, but I don't know if TT would want to move down that far. If TB would offer up a 2nd, he might.

[Waldo]

If this is how the draft plays out, at our pick Oher, Sanchez, Maybin and Orapko will be available as well as Jenkins, Wells, and Moreno.

With SF a likely landing spot for Sanchez in this scenario, we are in the trade spot. Anybody but SF that wants Sanchez will be looking to trade with us to get him. SF might as well if TT gets an offer, then calls SF and tells them that if they want Sanchez, pony up a 3rd.

We can then drop back a few spots into the early teens and at least one of Oher, Maybin, Orapko, or Jenkins will be there. I wouldn't be too heartbroken if we took Moreno or Wells either. If we went back to the mid teens, Cushing is a real good option, he is a perfect 3-4 SOLB.

Unfortunately, it doesn't look like any of the teams drafting in the early to mid teens are likely to be looking to spend a high 1st round pick on a QB.
http://www.gbnreport.com/weeklydraftorder.html

Tampa Bay at #19 might be interested, but I don't know if TT would want to move down that far. If TB would offer up a 2nd, he might.

But it would be easy to move back up to #13. The Skins traded away their whole draft, they need picks and surely want to trade down from #13.

It would be crazy to have the whole top of their draft, but the Jets may be in the QB market as well. New coaches like to get their franchise QB ASAP. Doesn't hurt that the Jets HC was part of a team last year that traded up to get a raw first rounder and he worked out great for them.

[DonHutson]

A few random thoughts on points made so far:

Detroit - I have no doubt they would love to trade out of that pick. But who would want it? Nobody else wants to spend that money on a QB either, and there's no obvious best player in this draft. I have no doubt Schwartz would love to go D with that pick. But who would they take? Raji? Curry? They probably should go OL, but while there are 3 or 4 very good ones, there isn't really one obvious best one. Not to mention an OL doesn't put asses in the seats after 0-16. In the absence of any obvious best player available, I think Stafford or Sanchez are going to be almost stuffed down their throats. They probably take Stafford due to the prototype arm, etc.

Sanchez - So where does that leave him? Maybe KC, but I really doubt it. I think they'll give Thigpen a shot and try put some talent around him. Probably OL, or maybe they want to put Raji next to Glenn Dorsey. Maybe Sanchez goes to SF, but we've seen the pattern lately. Maybe one QB goes high, the others kind of drift down to where they become affordable. I wouldn't be surprised if Sanchez dropped all the way to the Vikings. I just think he's in that Rodgers/Quinn class where teams think they can get someone almost as good in the 2nd or 3rd, so why bother? Just my impression so far.

Ted's pick - In 4 drafts, he's played it rather safe on his top pick with the high character, high production guy three times (Rodgers, Hawk, and Nelson). If he plays it safe again, look for Jenkins or Orakpo (assuming the OL and Raji are gone). He'll roll the dice on a less polished athlete after the first pick, but to me he seems to hedge is bet on the first one, for better or worse.

Jenkins and the 3-4 - Valid point re: Harris and zone coverage. But they're also saying Pittsburgh has used more bump and run in their D in recent years, and Capers says if that's Al's stong suit they will try to utilize it. So yeah, Jenkins might help. He would surely be useful in a year or two. But in terms of the pieces we need to make this D go right now, I think we could live with our current DB's.

[bobblehead]

I'm going on record, TT will either trade up, or pick at 9 a LT for the future. Its too valuable of a position to trust a declining clifton at and College might end up at RT.

NO defense drafted until the second round.

[SnakeLH2006]

Crabtree won't fall that far, and I can't see Brown going in the top 10... I guess I could see him going in the top 10, but I don't consider him a top 10 pick.

Been looking at a ton of mocks too, and Crabtree is everyone's Larry Fitz this year. He'll be gone by Seattle.

Saw a decent mock draft here that predicts the BJ we need yet.

And this is some funny stuff from the dude who wrote it (read what he said about the Lions for ex.).

http://www.walterfootball.com/draft2009.php

Good stuff...I'm hoping either BJ or a top notch OT, but been saying that for many months now.