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cheesner
03-19-2009, 02:15 PM
And for all who want to test your skills against our GM, post it here.

My Packer draft board looks like this:

1 BJ Raji - the most important position is NT in a 3-4 Def. Raji is a bit of a risk with weight issues, but the talent is there. The Packers biggest need on defense is NT and there is a dropoff if we get the next best in the 2nd. Raji has the capacity to make the biggest impact on our team. Stopping the run was certainly a huge issue last season and this pick would go a long way to fixing that.

2 Justin Smith - The greatest limiting factor on offense was OT. Clifton was never a great runblocker and his pass blocking has dropped off. Sounds like Taucher will not be ready and one of the backup options, Bruno, may also miss some time. An improvement at OT will enhance an already very good offense and any investment to protect AR is a sound one. JS is a converted TE - sounds like someone that TT would be interested in.

3 Micheal Oher - OT need is spelled out above. Oher and JS are nearly the same with Oher having more upside and a bit riskier. The label of him not giving 100% has been explained as he really never needed to. He always played up to his competition. But when the competition was poor he slacked. He still dominated the other player, but wasn't giving 100% effort. I am thinking he will rise to the occassion in the pros and will be the best of all the OTs taken.

4 Aaron Curry - Don't really need a him but he is the BPA, though, and his talent doesn't come around too often. I am a little concerned about Barnett, his injury, and his effectiveness in the 3-4. Hawk/Curry as our MLBs would be fun to watch.

5 Eugene Monroe - not a big step down from the first 2 OTs.

(if any of 1-5 are available I select. If they are all gone I start to consider trade downs of 1-6 spots. My asking price would be a bit high #1 for #1 and #2)

6 Crabtree - not sure what we are going to do with all the WRs. But the BPA is the BPA. Rather have an impact player at a position of strength than a good player at a position of need.

7 Everette Brown - Don't think this is a need pick. I think we could get by with someone already on the roster Poppinga/Hunter/Chillar/etc - theres a player in there somewhere. None of them is as good as EB could be. Would be nice to have a guy step in with a 10 sack season as a rookie - more pass rush will go a long way to improving this defense.

(at this level I drop my demand and accept less to trade down 1-6 spots #1 and #4 or #5 for #1 and #2)

8 Malcom Jenkins - BPA. Will come in handy though if Tramon Williams holds out. We will need 2 new starters within 3 years. He should be a very good one. With the 3-4 zone coverage, I think you should invest more in the DL and LBers.

9 Aaron Maybin - Only put him here because I need 9 on this list - don't think it comes to this as a QB should displace one of the players above. Worried about this pick. I think he needed to stay in college another year. Could be a good one but I have an uneasy bust felling about him. If he pans out though, with his physical skills, he could be dominant. And at 9 - that is worth the risk (1-8 represent less risk).


Not on list

Andre Smith: I think he will be gone before #9 - but his game doesn't is overpowering and doesn't mesh with the finesse ZBS.

Matt Stafford: Likely to be gone. We are set at QB

Orakpo: Great potential, but is too small for DE and coverage skills for OLB not adequate


If I do the trade down and am sitting from 10-15, I would be looking at the players left on my top 9 list and Mathews/Cushing/Moreno/Jerry/Jackson or trade down even further

The 'sweet spot' of this draft is 12ish to 60ish with players of similar skills available. If one of the top 12 doesn't slip through, by all means, trade back and take more swings at the plate. Course, if you move to far back you loose your options and the remaining players might not be at a postion of need.

Waldo
03-19-2009, 02:42 PM
Starred have physical flags for TT

Tier 1
Jason Smith
BJ Raji
Eugene Monroe*
Aaron Curry
Aaron Maybin
Brian Orakpo

Tier 2
Brian Cushing
Evander Hood
Tyson Jackson*
Andre Smith*
Michael Crabtree
Jeremy Maclin
Chris Wells
Matthew Stafford
Jarron Gilbert
Connor Barwin
Percy Harvin
Everette Brown*
Peria Jerry*
Darrius Heyward-Bey
Rey Maualuga
Knowshon Moreno*
Vontae Davis
Brandon Pettigrew*
Malcom Jenkins*
William Beatty
Mark Sanchez
Alex Mack*
Eric Wood
Robert Ayers*
Michael Johnson
Larry English*
James Laurinitus
Michael Oher (G)*
Donald Brown
Clay Matthews
Louis Delmas
Max Unger
Hakeem Nicks
Darius Butler
LeSean McCoy
Patrick Chung
Eben Britton*
Jared Cook

Tier 3
Jamon Meredeth
Fili Moala
Lawrence Sidbury
Dorell Scott
Duke Robinson*
Clint Sintim*
Troy Kropog*
Myron Pryor
Sammie Lee Hill
Davie Veikune
Chase Coffman
Fenuki Tupou*
.....

CaliforniaCheez
03-19-2009, 11:39 PM
Who can predict a Ted Thompson draft?

Who has not sctached their head trying to figure out the picks?

Anyway, my guess is that the NT is the most important in the 3-4. Jolly and Pickett are in the last year of their contracts and Harrell is waiting for the dirt to pile on and a headstone marked "Bust".

My feeble pojection is

9) B.J. Raji DT 6-2, 335 Boston College

41) William Beatty OT 6-6, 307 UConn

73) Dorell Scott DT 6-4, 310 Clemson

or
Jarron Gilbert DE 6-5, 290 San Jose State

83) Gerald McRath LB 6-2, 220 Southern Mississippi

105+) Terrence Taylor DT 6-1, 310 Michigan


Beyond that it is a crap shoot and who knows if pick 83 won't be traded down??

Lurker64
03-19-2009, 11:52 PM
[b]Who can predict a Ted Thompson draft?


I think Waldo did a pretty good job in another thread


TT's drafting is not nearly as hard to understand as people think it is.

You have to keep a few things in mind:
TT highly values tape
TT highly values position prototype measurables (and severely downgrades otherwise)
TT highly values leaders and team captains
TT only moderately downgrades for injuries
TT seems age indifferent
TT highly values big guys
TT seems to downgrade guys slightly for playing too far from the ball.
He selects close to the BPA, especially in the first.

With that in mind, to construct an approximation of TT's board, start with a board based off production and tape (basically what the national lists looked like right after the final bowl game), try to fit the medical guys in where you think they would be if healthy.

Then modify per the combine. Upgrade the freaks 10-20 picks or so (Hood and Orakpo are the only true freaks (reps+vert+broad>80) in this class IMO). Downgrade everybody harshly based on position prototype measurables they don't meet, based on severity.

For RB's, weight must be 200-210 (haven't pinned it down), 10 yd split must be at least ~1.55.

For DE's, height must be ~6'4", arms must be 34" or longer, vert+broad+reps must equal 70 at least, good 10 yd split a bonus

For CB's, height must be 5'11", must jump well (35"+), must run in the 4.4's at least

For DT's, weight must be 300+, vert+broad+reps must equal 70 at least, arms must be 33" or longer

For OL's height must be at least 6'4", weight must be 300, SS must be at least 4.6, 3C must be at least 7.6, the longer arms the better

WR's must be 5'11, either run sub a sub 4.5 40 or sub 1.5 10, and be known for their hands.

QB's have to be at least 6'2", do well on the wonderlic, and be an accurate passer.

Downgrade all players that run slower than NFL average per unit weight (weight/height) in the 10 yd split

Give a downgrade to all players that were not team leaders
Give a small downgrade to all injured players or players with injury problems
Downgrade all OL who are not "tough guys" (all his OL have been known as being ruffians a little and play nasty).
Downgrade all legal problems attitude issues severely
Downgrade guys for playing too far from the ball (at least high in the draft)

cheesner
03-20-2009, 01:14 AM
I guess I wasn't clear. Don't try to guess TT's picks, supply your own. List the players you would put on the draft list. As far as my list goes, BJ would be the pick if he is available. If not, move down the list and take Justin Smith. If he is not avail, then Oher, and so on.

See where your picks end up going. Then see how they do as rookies.

With so many people second guessing TT, I would like to see how others would do if they were in TT's shoes.

Fritz
03-20-2009, 10:42 AM
Starred have physical flags for TT

Tier 1
Jason Smith
BJ Raji
Eugene Monroe*
Aaron Curry
Aaron Maybin
Brian Orakpo

Tier 2
Brian Cushing
Evander Hood
Tyson Jackson*
Andre Smith*
Michael Crabtree
Jeremy Maclin
Chris Wells
Matthew Stafford
Jarron Gilbert
Connor Barwin
Percy Harvin
Everette Brown*
Peria Jerry*
Darrius Heyward-Bey
Rey Maualuga
Knowshon Moreno*
Vontae Davis
Brandon Pettigrew*
Malcom Jenkins*
William Beatty
Mark Sanchez
Alex Mack*
Eric Wood
Robert Ayers*
Michael Johnson
Larry English*
James Laurinitus
Michael Oher (G)*
Donald Brown
Clay Matthews
Louis Delmas
Max Unger
Hakeem Nicks
Darius Butler
LeSean McCoy
Patrick Chung
Eben Britton*
Jared Cook

Tier 3
Jamon Meredeth
Fili Moala
Lawrence Sidbury
Dorell Scott
Duke Robinson*
Clint Sintim*
Troy Kropog*
Myron Pryor
Sammie Lee Hill
Davie Veikune
Chase Coffman
Fenuki Tupou*
.....

Waldo, when you write "physical flags" do you mean in terms of the player's size or testing numbers, or do you mean an injury history, or both?

bobblehead
03-20-2009, 10:52 AM
Justin Smith
Eugene Monroe
Andre Smith
Michael Oher

If they are all gone, who the hell knows.

Waldo
03-20-2009, 01:17 PM
Waldo, when you write "physical flags" do you mean in terms of the player's size or testing numbers, or do you mean an injury history, or both?

Size & testing #'s. They are the non-prototypical players for the schemes we run based solely off #'s. I may have missed a few later on.