Pickett at DE / Pickett gone after a year

[Partial]

Do you guys think Pickett can be a DE in a base 3-4? I don't know if he can.

Also, the notion I'm hearing from many here of letting a solid vet in his prime as an NT walk next year as a free agent is not a good idea imo. You keep your solid vets entering their prime.

[packers11]

I think we keep him... T.T. learned his lesson on having little depth at the D-Line (2008 season), if he doesn't break the bank, I believe Pickett still has a future in Green Bay...

[Gunakor]

Do you guys think Pickett can be a DE in a base 3-4? I don't know if he can.

Also, the notion I'm hearing from many here of letting a solid vet in his prime as an NT walk next year as a free agent is not a good idea imo. You keep your solid vets entering their prime.

If his deal could be renegotiated and he take a slight paycut I wouldn't have a problem with it, provided he proves serviceable as a NT this season. But he's making a pretty healthy salary for a backup NT.

I think Pickett could play outside in a pinch, but I'd hate to see him out there on a regular basis.

[packers11]

www.rotoworld.com

Raji is at his best penetrating and most 3-4 nose tackles two-gap, but Dom Capers' scheme allows more freedom. An outstanding value here, Raji could spell Ryan Pickett on passing downs and kick to end on early downs. The Packers are needy at both positions

[rbaloha1]

Pickett can play de. My concern is Jenkins at de.

If Harrell stays healthy maybe Jenkins should be traded.

[Gunakor]

Pickett can play de. My concern is Jenkins at de.

If Harrell stays healthy maybe Jenkins should be traded.

If Jenkins stays healthy why should he be traded? He was the one guy on our roster I was sure could be a 3-4 DE if healthy, seeing as he was stout enough to play DT and explosive enough to play DE in the 4-3. I'm worried about his durability out there, but not at all worried about his ability to play the position.

[Partial]

Pickett can play de. My concern is Jenkins at de.

If Harrell stays healthy maybe Jenkins should be traded.

I don't think Jenkins will be able to stay healthy for an entire season, but if he is I think of him as a VERY good 3-4 end. Anyone who can get that sort of penetration up the middle against a double team should do very well outside I would think.

I think Harrell might finally get healthy now that he can play at 305-310 (what he played in college) instead of 330-340.

[Packnut]

Partial- you need to start REALLY understanding the responsibility of a DE in the 3-4. You can't treat it the same as the 4-3. It's totally different.

The SOLE purpose of a DE in the 3-4 is to occupy blockers so that the LB can make the play.

So, going on that basis. Why can't Pickett and Raji play at the same time?
Either one can play DE in this scheme. Both can penetrate and blow up plays. Why not Jenkins, Raji and Pickett up front? IF and I mean IF harrell ever gets on the field, he jumps into the rotation.

[Partial]

I completely understand the responsibility. You need to have good lateral movement. Pickett might be too big and stout to move laterally.

If all you wanted was big fat strong uggs, why doesn't every team line up an NT at DE in a 3-4? :?:

Not sure if Pickett can handle it. I'd say Raji has a better chance playing outside than Pickett 'cause of his rare athleticism.

[red]

tt is the one that said pickett could play DE

[Packnut]

I completely understand the responsibility. You need to have good lateral movement. Pickett might be too big and stout to move laterally.

If all you wanted was big fat strong uggs, why doesn't every team line up an NT at DE in a 3-4? :?:

Not sure if Pickett can handle it. I'd say Raji has a better chance playing outside than Pickett 'cause of his rare athleticism.

Ah, but that's the point. If your strong enough to get penetration, you don't have to worry about moving laterally.

[Lurker64]

All depends on how things go on the field. If Pickett is sufficiently effective this year, we'll pay to keep him.

[rbaloha1]

The 3-4 the Packers are playing requires 3 stout d-linemen. The position titles and where they line-up are meaningless.

The top 3 imo are Raji, Jenkins and Harrell.

[RashanGary]

I see Pickett playing mostly NT this year. It's going to take Raji a year or more to really refine his technique to be better than Pickett if I had to guess.


If I had to guess how they play, I'd guess this


Pickett plays 65% of total snaps at NT mostly in base situations
Raji plays 35% of total snaps at NT (mostly pass rushing situations)

Raji and Pickett both play some in a 4 man front during run/goalline situaitons.

Raji could play a little DE in situations that the coaches think he can excel in (select matchups and situations).


All in all, I think big fat guys should play no more than 75% of snaps. Both of these guys should get about that number. I think the Packers would be smart to try to lock up Pickett to another deal. Why not? You can never have enough good Dlineman.

[rbaloha1]

s

I think the Packers would be smart to try to lock up Pickett to another deal. Why not? You can never have enough good Dlineman.

Age and injury history preclude locking up Pickett to a long term contract. Resign at around NFL veteran minimum next offseason.

[Partial]

Injury history? Age? Dude is approaching his prime for an NT. Finally strong enough to be dominant! He is an absolute rock and has very little injury history.

He's going to get way more than the veteran minimum. WAY more, considering CC got 4 miln a year...

[mission]

s

I think the Packers would be smart to try to lock up Pickett to another deal. Why not? You can never have enough good Dlineman.

Age and injury history preclude locking up Pickett to a long term contract. Resign at around NFL veteran minimum next offseason.

Ya, isn't dude like 28? Has he really be injured a lot... Picket has this "old man" reputation that I think may be a bit unfounded. He kind of has an long old man face so maybe that's it.

[BobDobbs]

Pickett had a little bit of a down year last year as far as holding his anchor. But, our run defense with him and without him is noticeably different. He has been a great free agent signing and if he stays healthy his next contract is going to pay him 4 to five million a year over four years or so.

There's too many variables to know how this is going to play out. Number one, can Raji even play. Anyone ever heard of Tony Mandarich, Terrell Buckley, John Michaels, or Jamal Reynolds among others. How'd their rookie years go?

Number two how long does it take him to get used to the NFL. Mario Williams took a year. He may not be ready to start.

Number three. What is our defense actually going to look like? Are we going to play a lot of 4-3? Has Pickett ever played in the 3-4?

If Raji solidifies the starting spot at NT by the end of the year and Pickett can't spend some time at DE then he's gone. I hope they can keep him though because he's a valuable part of the defense.

[Packers4Ever]

I think we keep him... T.T. learned his lesson on having little depth at the D-Line (2008 season), if he doesn't break the bank, I believe Pickett still has a future in Green Bay...

Same here. Doesn't make a whole lot of common sense to send off a perfectly good (we hope) veteran, We've seen that done before and
sometimes regret making those changes.

Chances are Pickett will come out of his injury fine and rarin' to go !! :wink:

[pbmax]

Pickett will be 30 in October and outside of his rookie year he has appeared in 110 games, started 105 and missed a total of two games (both 2007).

He did have the arm injury last year and it did seem to affect him, possibly all year as he seemed easier to double and move last year. He has never seemed as immovable as Grady Jackson was.

But as T2 said, guys with these bodies don't grow on trees and so it might be lunacy not to take him. I had doubts about Pickett playing NT is he got moved like last year. Having two of these guys is not unthinkable if they carry 6 lineman, especially if one or the other can play DE. You need to have a backup NT.

But the most important factor is likely passing downs. Think of all the snaps Tramon got in the nickel last year. When you see the Packers in the nickel this year, you very likely will see Raji at DT as well. We will not always be in a 3-4 alignment esp. on passing downs.

[wist43]

No, Pickett is strictly a NT IMO...

Raji is much more versatile... as someone said further up the thread, Raji can spell Pickett at NT, play DE when needed, and provide a ton of push in the middle on passing downs.

Partial... don't know why ur so down on this pick. Raji is one hell of a player... TT's best pick since he's been here IMO.

[red]

if both pickett and raji show that they can play NT, then you should keep both. then use then as a rotation to keep each of them fresh. the NT in a 3-4 has to be a damn hard job that just wears a guy down, you're looking at a double team, at least, on every single snap

and you always need a solid backup. NT is THE most important position, if he goes down and you don't have a decent backup, then you're fucked

and my god do we have an awesome looking goal line d. teams should find it very difficult to run on short yardage situation against us




harrell/jolly picket raji jenkins


kampman barnet hawk mathews


you shouldn't be able to get a single yard against something that looks like that

[RashanGary]

if both pickett and raji show that they can play NT, then you should keep both. then use then as a rotation to keep each of them fresh. the NT in a 3-4 has to be a damn hard job that just wears a guy down, you're looking at a double team, at least, on every single snap

and you always need a solid backup. NT is THE most important position, if he goes down and you don't have a decent backup, then you're fucked

Agreed. If Pickett will sign for about 5 mil per year, he's a good lineman. He's worth. it. I don't think we're going to draft any projects that turn out to be as good as Pickett. It's possible, but I think he's valuable enough to want to keep around. You need two fat ass NT's and with Raji's versatility, it would be great to have another one to open Raji up for some of the other things he does well.

[pbmax]

harrell/jolly picket raji jenkins


kampman barnet hawk mathews


you shouldn't be able to get a single yard against something that looks like that
You probably can't. But you may be able to pass against the 3 DBs we'd have left in the game!

:lol: :lol:

[Bretsky]

No, Pickett is strictly a NT IMO...

Raji is much more versatile... as someone said further up the thread, Raji can spell Pickett at NT, play DE when needed, and provide a ton of push in the middle on passing downs.

Partial... don't know why ur so down on this pick. Raji is one hell of a player... TT's best pick since he's been here IMO.



Per the interviews I thoght the Packer Brass thought Pickett could play some DE and Raji would stay at NG

[RashanGary]

McCarthy just said Pickett was going to play some end. I'm guessing it will happen in obvious run situations.

[Gunakor]

No, Pickett is strictly a NT IMO...

Raji is much more versatile... as someone said further up the thread, Raji can spell Pickett at NT, play DE when needed, and provide a ton of push in the middle on passing downs.

Partial... don't know why ur so down on this pick. Raji is one hell of a player... TT's best pick since he's been here IMO.



Per the interviews I thoght the Packer Brass thought Pickett could play some DE and Raji would stay at NG

That's exactly what they said. And it's ass backwards IMO, but whatever they say. I trust that Dom Capers knows what he's talking about when he tells McCarthy and Thompson that Pickett can play end, I just don't see it.

[The Leaper]

I agree completely with the thoughts of most. Pickett at DE? Crazy dumb if you ask me. The guy is 30 and never had much speed to start with. Raji makes far more sense filling in at DE on run downs.

[Guiness]

s

I think the Packers would be smart to try to lock up Pickett to another deal. Why not? You can never have enough good Dlineman.

Age and injury history preclude locking up Pickett to a long term contract. Resign at around NFL veteran minimum next offseason.

Pickett? Started 16 games at DT? Vet minimum?

Wow. You need to seriously have your perscription checked - if he were an FA right now, he's getting $10/3yrs. Conservative.

edit: JH is prolly right. $5mil/yr might be closer

[Gunakor]

s

I think the Packers would be smart to try to lock up Pickett to another deal. Why not? You can never have enough good Dlineman.

Age and injury history preclude locking up Pickett to a long term contract. Resign at around NFL veteran minimum next offseason.

Pickett? Started 16 games at DT? Vet minimum?

Wow. You need to seriously have your perscription checked - if he were an FA right now, he's getting $10/3yrs. Conservative.

edit: JH is prolly right. $5mil/yr might be closer

Started 16 games at DT last year. I doubt very highly he starts 16 games at NT for us this year. If he enters FA at the end of his current contract with us his value will be far less than it would be today. And if he gets that kind of an offer, and he's not still our starting NT, let him go. I'm not interested in paying a backup NT 5 million dollars per season.

[Partial]

What evidence do you have that he likely won't start 16 games? He's been a virtual tank for us. He's missed 2 games the past 7 years.

[HarveyWallbangers]

What evidence do you have that he likely won't start 16 games? He's been a virtual tank for us. He's missed 2 games the past 7 years.

I still think you're missing the boat on this. Our DL was at its best when we rotated. Pickett isn't an every down player. Raji can play a bit more, but I still don't want him playing 100% of the snaps. Those big guys wear down. I'm cool with keeping Pickett. We'll play some 4 man fronts, so both guys will end up playing 50% or more of the snaps. Plus, this gives us great protection for Pickett if his injuries continue or his play drops off. You need the big guy in the middle in the 3-4 and banking on one guy to stay healthy and fresh isn't the right way to go.

[Joemailman]

I agree with Harv. These huge guys can't play every down. New England just used a high 2nd round pick to take Ron Brace even though they have arguably the best NT in the game in Wilfork. And Wilfork I believe is younger than Pickett.

Fewer snaps early in games will make Pickett and Raji stronger in the 4th quarter than Pickett often was last year.

[Patler]

What evidence do you have that he likely won't start 16 games? He's been a virtual tank for us. He's missed 2 games the past 7 years.

I still think you're missing the boat on this. Our DL was at its best when we rotated. Pickett isn't an every down player. Raji can play a bit more, but I still don't want him playing 100% of the snaps. Those big guys wear down. I'm cool with keeping Pickett. We'll play some 4 man fronts, so both guys will end up playing 50% or more of the snaps. Plus, this gives us great protection for Pickett if his injuries continue or his play drops off. You need the big guy in the middle in the 3-4 and banking on one guy to stay healthy and fresh isn't the right way to go.

I agree 100%. I would be more than happy to have two starting quality nose tackles. How better to use up blockers throughout the entire game than by having two quality players rotating with each other all game long at NT? By rotating when a three-man front is used and sometimes playing side-by-side in three or four-man fronts each will contribute in a big way without becoming so worn down during the course of a game as to lose effectiveness at the ends of games.

Having both Pickett and Raji (if he pans out) would not be a waste at all. Both will be on the field enough to justify their salaries.

[Gunakor]

What evidence do you have that he likely won't start 16 games? He's been a virtual tank for us. He's missed 2 games the past 7 years.

I still think you're missing the boat on this. Our DL was at its best when we rotated. Pickett isn't an every down player. Raji can play a bit more, but I still don't want him playing 100% of the snaps. Those big guys wear down. I'm cool with keeping Pickett. We'll play some 4 man fronts, so both guys will end up playing 50% or more of the snaps. Plus, this gives us great protection for Pickett if his injuries continue or his play drops off. You need the big guy in the middle in the 3-4 and banking on one guy to stay healthy and fresh isn't the right way to go.

I agree 100%. I would be more than happy to have two starting quality nose tackles. How better to use up blockers throughout the entire game than by having two quality players rotating with each other all game long at NT? By rotating when a three-man front is used and sometimes playing side-by-side in three or four-man fronts each will contribute in a big way without becoming so worn down during the course of a game as to lose effectiveness at the ends of games.

Having both Pickett and Raji (if he pans out) would not be a waste at all. Both will be on the field enough to justify their salaries.

I think you are all missing the point. I am every bit as concerned with how much money our backup NT is making as I am that we have a servicable backup NT. I think we can find a servicable backup NT for half of what Pickett is making.

As was mentioned earlier, Pickett stands to make around 5 million per year in FA when his contract expires. If Pickett is just a rotational player, is he worth that much money? Why pay Pickett like a starter if he's not starting? Or is everyone so certain that Pickett will remain a starter?

If Raji wins the starting job, offer Pickett a healthy backup's salary. Something like 2.5 million per, maybe with incentives on top of it in case Raji misses a large chunk of time and Pickett is asked to play full time. If he accepts, great to have him still. If he feels he can still be a regular starter for someone and make a starters salary, let him go get that money from someone else. Draft or sign a new backup NT next offseason at an appropriate salary for the job he's asked to do.

[rbaloha1]

The scheme requires three run stuffers. This is especially important due to Peterson and Forte.

Pickett possesses the feet to move laterally and strength to play de. This season dictates his future.

[Fritz]

What evidence do you have that he likely won't start 16 games? He's been a virtual tank for us. He's missed 2 games the past 7 years.

I still think you're missing the boat on this. Our DL was at its best when we rotated. Pickett isn't an every down player. Raji can play a bit more, but I still don't want him playing 100% of the snaps. Those big guys wear down. I'm cool with keeping Pickett. We'll play some 4 man fronts, so both guys will end up playing 50% or more of the snaps. Plus, this gives us great protection for Pickett if his injuries continue or his play drops off. You need the big guy in the middle in the 3-4 and banking on one guy to stay healthy and fresh isn't the right way to go.

I agree 100%. I would be more than happy to have two starting quality nose tackles. How better to use up blockers throughout the entire game than by having two quality players rotating with each other all game long at NT? By rotating when a three-man front is used and sometimes playing side-by-side in three or four-man fronts each will contribute in a big way without becoming so worn down during the course of a game as to lose effectiveness at the ends of games.

Having both Pickett and Raji (if he pans out) would not be a waste at all. Both will be on the field enough to justify their salaries.

I think you are all missing the point. I am every bit as concerned with how much money our backup NT is making as I am that we have a servicable backup NT. I think we can find a servicable backup NT for half of what Pickett is making.

As was mentioned earlier, Pickett stands to make around 5 million per year in FA when his contract expires. If Pickett is just a rotational player, is he worth that much money? Why pay Pickett like a starter if he's not starting? Or is everyone so certain that Pickett will remain a starter?

If Raji wins the starting job, offer Pickett a healthy backup's salary. Something like 2.5 million per, maybe with incentives on top of it in case Raji misses a large chunk of time and Pickett is asked to play full time. If he accepts, great to have him still. If he feels he can still be a regular starter for someone and make a starters salary, let him go get that money from someone else. Draft or sign a new backup NT next offseason at an appropriate salary for the job he's asked to do.

Gun - I 'd rather have Pickett thatn "serviceable" and I believe you could justify both salaries at that position. Mebbe take some cabbage out of Brian Brohm's pocket.

[Gunakor]

I think you are all missing the point. I am every bit as concerned with how much money our backup NT is making as I am that we have a servicable backup NT. I think we can find a servicable backup NT for half of what Pickett is making.

As was mentioned earlier, Pickett stands to make around 5 million per year in FA when his contract expires. If Pickett is just a rotational player, is he worth that much money? Why pay Pickett like a starter if he's not starting? Or is everyone so certain that Pickett will remain a starter?

If Raji wins the starting job, offer Pickett a healthy backup's salary. Something like 2.5 million per, maybe with incentives on top of it in case Raji misses a large chunk of time and Pickett is asked to play full time. If he accepts, great to have him still. If he feels he can still be a regular starter for someone and make a starters salary, let him go get that money from someone else. Draft or sign a new backup NT next offseason at an appropriate salary for the job he's asked to do.

Gun - I 'd rather have Pickett thatn "serviceable" and I believe you could justify both salaries at that position. Mebbe take some cabbage out of Brian Brohm's pocket.

The only way to justify paying him 5 million per season is to start him somewhere. If he's the backup NT, not a starting NT or DE, then he's only seeing 5-10 snaps per game. It's a nice insurance policy to keep him, I absolutely agree, but that's 5 million per season we don't have to use on a guy who might see the field more often. I couldn't possibly justify paying someone that much money just to spell my starters. Again, if Pickett would sign with us for half of that, deal done. But 5 million... I couldn't justify that if he wasn't a starter.

Besides, complaining about serviceable backups not being good enough is a bit selfish. I don't expect world busters as backups. Serviceable works just fine for me. Think about Pickett for a minute too - if he feels he could be a starting DT for another team, why would he sign with us to be a backup in the first place? I personally don't see him as a starter after this year, at least here in Green Bay. I don't think he's going to want to resign with us anyway.

[CaliforniaCheez]

Big guys need to rotate in and out.

Selecting Raji actually helps keep Pickett fresh and less likely to get injured.
The D-line should be less fatigued.

The rotation will slowly have Raji playing more and Pickett less over time.
Pickett will be signed to a new contract. NT's are hard to find.

He will have the length of Pickett's new contract to find another great NT.

[Fritz]

I think you are all missing the point. I am every bit as concerned with how much money our backup NT is making as I am that we have a servicable backup NT. I think we can find a servicable backup NT for half of what Pickett is making.

As was mentioned earlier, Pickett stands to make around 5 million per year in FA when his contract expires. If Pickett is just a rotational player, is he worth that much money? Why pay Pickett like a starter if he's not starting? Or is everyone so certain that Pickett will remain a starter?

If Raji wins the starting job, offer Pickett a healthy backup's salary. Something like 2.5 million per, maybe with incentives on top of it in case Raji misses a large chunk of time and Pickett is asked to play full time. If he accepts, great to have him still. If he feels he can still be a regular starter for someone and make a starters salary, let him go get that money from someone else. Draft or sign a new backup NT next offseason at an appropriate salary for the job he's asked to do.

Gun - I 'd rather have Pickett thatn "serviceable" and I believe you could justify both salaries at that position. Mebbe take some cabbage out of Brian Brohm's pocket.

The only way to justify paying him 5 million per season is to start him somewhere. If he's the backup NT, not a starting NT or DE, then he's only seeing 5-10 snaps per game. It's a nice insurance policy to keep him, I absolutely agree, but that's 5 million per season we don't have to use on a guy who might see the field more often. I couldn't possibly justify paying someone that much money just to spell my starters. Again, if Pickett would sign with us for half of that, deal done. But 5 million... I couldn't justify that if he wasn't a starter.

Besides, complaining about serviceable backups not being good enough is a bit selfish. I don't expect world busters as backups. Serviceable works just fine for me. Think about Pickett for a minute too - if he feels he could be a starting DT for another team, why would he sign with us to be a backup in the first place? I personally don't see him as a starter after this year, at least here in Green Bay. I don't think he's going to want to resign with us anyway.

First, I am selfish. :lol:

Secondly, I think the way injuries work in this league that if you paid Pickett the 5 mil, my guess is that you'd get your snaps worth out of him. Someone along the line will be hurt (Why are you saying "Justin Harrell"?) and if Pickett can indeed play end (though I wonder) then he'd earn the money he'd be getting.

Let me have my fantasies, Gunakor. I want Pickett and Raji for the next five years.

[SnakeLH2006]

Pickett is 30 and a FA. Snake stated it early and often but both MM and TT said they want to move him to DE for BJ (the paraphrased quotes were, "We wanna talk to Ryan after his vacation about playing DE.)....aka...BJ is the talent, future beast at NG...you may be gone in a year and old, and declined last year, so fuck ya, move to DE.

LOL, that sounded harsh, but Pickett would be fine DE in a 3-4. Keep BJ in the middle. No doubt he starts..would be stupid to see him at DE just to keep Pickett happy for one year...plus he can play 3 downs at NG (BJ) so why not. Pickett solves one DE position too.

[Cheesehead Craig]

If he's the backup NT, not a starting NT or DE, then he's only seeing 5-10 snaps per game.
You think a backup NT only plays 5-10 snaps per game? Seriously?

[3irty1]

Even as a number 9 pick I doubt they'll expect Raji to take on the workload Ryan Pickett has held for the last few years. I expect a total platoon between Pickett and Raji. Its a physically demanding position it will help them both as Raji develops and Pickett ages. If Pickett can also play DE in certain situations then great--it's a way to put the most talent on the field.

[Gunakor]

If he's the backup NT, not a starting NT or DE, then he's only seeing 5-10 snaps per game.
You think a backup NT only plays 5-10 snaps per game? Seriously?

Yeah, I do. I expect Raji in on first and second down every time. Every last time, if he's healthy. How many opportunities do you think that leaves for his backup? Pickett would be in with Raji in nickel as the 2 interior down linemen, but he'd come back off in dime since he's not much of a pass rusher. So I don't expect him to be in for every 3rd down even.

IF he can play DE - and that's a HUGE if - he might see the field enough to warrant the money he's making. But if he can't, he won't see the field very much at all. Barring injury, of course.

[Cheesehead Craig]

If he's the backup NT, not a starting NT or DE, then he's only seeing 5-10 snaps per game.
You think a backup NT only plays 5-10 snaps per game? Seriously?

Yeah, I do. I expect Raji in on first and second down every time. Every last time, if he's healthy. How many opportunities do you think that leaves for his backup? Pickett would be in with Raji in nickel as the 2 interior down linemen, but he'd come back off in dime since he's not much of a pass rusher. So I don't expect him to be in for every 3rd down even.

IF he can play DE - and that's a HUGE if - he might see the field enough to warrant the money he's making. But if he can't, he won't see the field very much at all. Barring injury, of course.
DTs and NTs need to be rotated in to keep them fresh. Backups play about 35-40% of the snaps or so and that equates to about 22-25 plays per game. You can't just make blanket statements about when Raji and Pickett will be in as it never works out that way. To think that Pickett will only see the field for 5-10 snaps is a ridiculous statement.

[Gunakor]

If he's the backup NT, not a starting NT or DE, then he's only seeing 5-10 snaps per game.
You think a backup NT only plays 5-10 snaps per game? Seriously?

Yeah, I do. I expect Raji in on first and second down every time. Every last time, if he's healthy. How many opportunities do you think that leaves for his backup? Pickett would be in with Raji in nickel as the 2 interior down linemen, but he'd come back off in dime since he's not much of a pass rusher. So I don't expect him to be in for every 3rd down even.

IF he can play DE - and that's a HUGE if - he might see the field enough to warrant the money he's making. But if he can't, he won't see the field very much at all. Barring injury, of course.
DTs and NTs need to be rotated in to keep them fresh. Backups play about 35-40% of the snaps or so and that equates to about 22-25 plays per game. You can't just make blanket statements about when Raji and Pickett will be in as it never works out that way. To think that Pickett will only see the field for 5-10 snaps is a ridiculous statement.

That's funny, considering NT's are only on the field for 60% of the total defensive snaps to begin with. If they split time evenly, the backup is on the field for 30% of the total defensive snaps. But they won't split time evenly. Raji is the better talent, better physical specimen with bigger upside. He's the starter and will see the majority of the snaps.

If they split time at NT, I'd imagine it'll be closer to 70-30 in favor of Raji. That leaves around 10-15 snaps for Pickett at NT, around 30-35% of the 35-40 or so snaps I expect the NT to be on the field for overall. 5 snaps is a bit low, I concede that. But it won't be a whole lot more than 10 if he's not the starter.

[Patler]

I think you are all missing the point. I am every bit as concerned with how much money our backup NT is making as I am that we have a servicable backup NT. I think we can find a servicable backup NT for half of what Pickett is making.

As was mentioned earlier, Pickett stands to make around 5 million per year in FA when his contract expires. If Pickett is just a rotational player, is he worth that much money? Why pay Pickett like a starter if he's not starting? Or is everyone so certain that Pickett will remain a starter?

If Raji wins the starting job, offer Pickett a healthy backup's salary. Something like 2.5 million per, maybe with incentives on top of it in case Raji misses a large chunk of time and Pickett is asked to play full time. If he accepts, great to have him still. If he feels he can still be a regular starter for someone and make a starters salary, let him go get that money from someone else. Draft or sign a new backup NT next offseason at an appropriate salary for the job he's asked to do.

No, I get that completely, and I would be willing to pay Pickett that much if he is good enough. NT is important, and I would be happy to pay for two high quality ones while saving somewhere else with younger, less expensive players.

$5 million won't be all that much when the average salary will be above $2 million.

[Patler]

NT's are only on the field for 60% of the total defensive snaps to begin with. If they split time evenly, the backup is on the field for 30% of the total defensive snaps. But they won't split time evenly. Raji is the better talent, better physical specimen with bigger upside. He's the starter and will see the majority of the snaps.

If they split time at NT, I'd imagine it'll be closer to 70-30 in favor of Raji. That leaves around 10-15 snaps for Pickett at NT, around 30-35% of the 35-40 or so snaps I expect the NT to be on the field for overall. 5 snaps is a bit low, I concede that. But it won't be a whole lot more than 10 if he's not the starter.

That's where I think you are wrong, because I don't think Raji will play only the "nose tackle snaps". I think he will be on the field when GB is in a 4-3, and for some passing downs as well, which means Pickett will get more of the pure 3-4 snaps in base formations. I would expect at least one of them to be on the field for most downs, and occasionally both at the same time. On 3rd and very long, or in prevent defenses neither might be there, but not all that many downs would be without either one.

[pbmax]

Pickett will not be the first choice for the DT slot opposite Raji on passing downs. As it has in years past, that position will go to Jenkins. Pickett may get some snaps in that formation, but he won't be the first choice.

[Gunakor]

NT's are only on the field for 60% of the total defensive snaps to begin with. If they split time evenly, the backup is on the field for 30% of the total defensive snaps. But they won't split time evenly. Raji is the better talent, better physical specimen with bigger upside. He's the starter and will see the majority of the snaps.

If they split time at NT, I'd imagine it'll be closer to 70-30 in favor of Raji. That leaves around 10-15 snaps for Pickett at NT, around 30-35% of the 35-40 or so snaps I expect the NT to be on the field for overall. 5 snaps is a bit low, I concede that. But it won't be a whole lot more than 10 if he's not the starter.

That's where I think you are wrong, because I don't think Raji will play only the "nose tackle snaps". I think he will be on the field when GB is in a 4-3, and for some passing downs as well, which means Pickett will get more of the pure 3-4 snaps in base formations. I would expect at least one of them to be on the field for most downs, and occasionally both at the same time. On 3rd and very long, or in prevent defenses neither might be there, but not all that many downs would be without either one.

Looking down the road, though, I do think Raji will play the majority of the nose tackle snaps. Pickett isn't going anywhere this year regardless, we were talking about the need to resign him at the end of his contract. So, looking a couple seasons ahead, do you still see Pickett getting more snaps in base 3-4? I couldn't imagine that being the case.

Don't get me wrong, I'm glad to have him this season. I just feel his value to us only goes down after this year.

[bobblehead]

I love april, when all rookies are going to start and have an impact.

[Patler]

Looking down the road, though, I do think Raji will play the majority of the nose tackle snaps. Pickett isn't going anywhere this year regardless, we were talking about the need to resign him at the end of his contract. So, looking a couple seasons ahead, do you still see Pickett getting more snaps in base 3-4? I couldn't imagine that being the case.

Don't get me wrong, I'm glad to have him this season. I just feel his value to us only goes down after this year.

Pickett is a good DT, whether he is as good at NT remains to be seen. I think it will be easy to find 20-30 snaps a game for him in situations both with and without Raji on the field, and hopefully Raji will get more. Besides, on 3rd and short or in goal line situations wouldn't the two of them side-by-side look darn good? :lol: :lol:

[Gunakor]

I love april, when all rookies are going to start and have an impact.

This year it's a hope. Next year, at least in the case of Raji and Matthews, it becomes more of an expectation.

[Patler]

Pickett will not be the first choice for the DT slot opposite Raji on passing downs. As it has in years past, that position will go to Jenkins. Pickett may get some snaps in that formation, but he won't be the first choice.

I agree, but in running situations, or even in some base situations if the Packers go with a 4-3 once in a while, both could be there.

[Gunakor]

Looking down the road, though, I do think Raji will play the majority of the nose tackle snaps. Pickett isn't going anywhere this year regardless, we were talking about the need to resign him at the end of his contract. So, looking a couple seasons ahead, do you still see Pickett getting more snaps in base 3-4? I couldn't imagine that being the case.

Don't get me wrong, I'm glad to have him this season. I just feel his value to us only goes down after this year.

Pickett is a good DT, whether he is as good at NT remains to be seen. I think it will be easy to find 20-30 snaps a game for him in situations both with and without Raji on the field, and hopefully Raji will get more. Besides, on 3rd and short or in goal line situations wouldn't the two of them side-by-side look darn good? :lol: :lol:

Sure, provided Pickett is still a reliable DT a couple years from now. But if he isn't in for the base 3-4, he's a situational player. Situational players aren't worth 5 million dollars per season IMO, no matter how good they are.

It reminds me KGB getting his massive contract extension. Save 2007, his production went down afterwards. He became a situational player after the fact. If we know that Pickett is going to be a situational player before offering a contract extension, why spend that much on him?

I guess the difference is that, after this season, I expect Pickett to be a situational player only in our defense. I am not as high on him in our new defense as most here. I don't mind having him, but don't think he's worth 5 million dollars per season to us.

[Lurker64]

I really think that expecting Raji to start over Pickett is really unreasonable. Pickett is a significantly better 2-gap player (and hence run stopper) at this point since Raji, like all DTs who come out of college, has trouble playing his gap instead of his man. Pickett has more experience playing in the A-gap than Raji, and is significantly better against a double team. With experience and NFL coaching, Raji could be outstanding at all these things, but as a rookie he's an unfinished project. I very much see Pickett over Raji in all run-downs, at least early in the season.

[Gunakor]

I really think that expecting Raji to start over Pickett is really unreasonable. Pickett is a significantly better 2-gap player (and hence run stopper) at this point since Raji, like all DTs who come out of college, has trouble playing his gap instead of his man. Pickett has more experience playing in the A-gap than Raji, and is significantly better against a double team. With experience and NFL coaching, Raji could be outstanding at all these things, but as a rookie he's an unfinished project. I very much see Pickett over Raji in all run-downs, at least early in the season.

I expect to see at least as much of Pickett as I do Raji this year. I've said that. This year isn't what I'm talking about, as Pickett isn't going anywhere this year anyway. Forget about this year.

When Pickett's contract expires, and he's due for an extension or FA, things will be different I expect. The question is, if he isn't starting at that time, do we resign him to a new 5 million per year contract?

[Patler]

Sure, provided Pickett is still a reliable DT a couple years from now. But if he isn't in for the base 3-4, he's a situational player. Situational players aren't worth 5 million dollars per season IMO, no matter how good they are.

It reminds me KGB getting his massive contract extension. Save 2007, his production went down afterwards. He became a situational player after the fact. If we know that Pickett is going to be a situational player before offering a contract extension, why spend that much on him?

I guess the difference is that, after this season, I expect Pickett to be a situational player only in our defense. I am not as high on him in our new defense as most here. I don't mind having him, but don't think he's worth 5 million dollars per season to us.

If he isn't reliable anymore there is nothing to discuss; however, I seen no reason for him to disappear after 2009. There are a lot of old DTs that play very well, even after careers with a lot more injuries than Pickett has had. he has been quite reliable, actually.

Even if Raji becomes the better NT of the two, and even if Raji becomes a star, I can still envision a scenario in which Pickett is a lot more than just a "role player". First, Raji will not play 100% of the snaps in the 3-4. Second, there will be 4 man fronts in which both will be in. MM seems to think that there may even be 3-4 situations in which both could be in. (That will surprise me if it is more than just a few.)

The Packers could carry just 6 or 7 DLs. There will be plenty of snaps for all of them. I think Pickett could very well earn his salary even if Raji becomes a star. With the cap at about $130 million, or no cap at all, $5 million to Pickett can be handled easily, if Pickett remains as capable as he has been.

[Gunakor]

Sure, provided Pickett is still a reliable DT a couple years from now. But if he isn't in for the base 3-4, he's a situational player. Situational players aren't worth 5 million dollars per season IMO, no matter how good they are.

It reminds me KGB getting his massive contract extension. Save 2007, his production went down afterwards. He became a situational player after the fact. If we know that Pickett is going to be a situational player before offering a contract extension, why spend that much on him?

I guess the difference is that, after this season, I expect Pickett to be a situational player only in our defense. I am not as high on him in our new defense as most here. I don't mind having him, but don't think he's worth 5 million dollars per season to us.

If he isn't reliable anymore there is nothing to discuss; however, I seen no reason for him to disappear after 2009. There are a lot of old DTs that play very well, even after careers with a lot more injuries than Pickett has had. he has been quite reliable, actually.

Even if Raji becomes the better NT of the two, and even if Raji becomes a star, I can still envision a scenario in which Pickett is a lot more than just a "role player". First, Raji will not play 100% of the snaps in the 3-4. Second, there will be 4 man fronts in which both will be in. MM seems to think that there may even be 3-4 situations in which both could be in. (That will surprise me if it is more than just a few.)

The Packers could carry just 6 or 7 DLs. There will be plenty of snaps for all of them. I think Pickett could very well earn his salary even if Raji becomes a star. With the cap at about $130 million, or no cap at all, $5 million to Pickett can be handled easily, if Pickett remains as capable as he has been.

You could be right, of course.

I guess I just don't see Pickett playing a major part in this defense in a couple years. I don't think that highly of him in a 3-4 except as a NT, but I can see him in short yardage/goal line situations. I don't see him playing in the nickel. I really don't think he'll be on the field as much as you think he's going to be in just a few year's time. I see the number of 4-3 looks decreasing over time as well, taking away even more opportunity for him to contribute.

But we shall see. Hopefully he proves me wrong.

[Patler]

I guess I just don't see Pickett playing a major part in this defense in a couple years. I don't think that highly of him in a 3-4 except as a NT, but I can see him in short yardage/goal line situations. I don't see him playing in the nickel. I really don't think he'll be on the field as much as you think he's going to be in just a few year's time. I see the number of 4-3 looks decreasing over time as well, taking away even more opportunity for him to contribute.

Out of curiosity to define our differing views about this, how any downs/game do you expect Raji to play when the Packers are fully committed as a 3-4 team, and how many do you think the Packers will line up for without either Raji or his NT backup? How will they line up for those downs when neither are in?

If Harrell can get healthy, Jenkins can stay healthy, and Jolly can stay out of jail; the group of Pickett, Raji, Jenkins, Jolly, Harrell, someone 1 and someone 2 could be a very good rotation for all situations, yet use only 7 roster spots to do it. You might even be able to eliminate "someone 2" and do it with just 6 players.

[Gunakor]

Out of curiosity to define our differing views about this, how any downs/game do you expect Raji to play when the Packers are fully committed as a 3-4 team, and how many do you think the Packers will line up for without either Raji or his NT backup? How will they line up for those downs when neither are in?

If Harrell can get healthy, Jenkins can stay healthy, and Jolly can stay out of jail; the group of Pickett, Raji, Jenkins, Jolly, Harrell, someone 1 and someone 2 could be a very good rotation for all situations, yet use only 7 roster spots to do it. You might even be able to eliminate "someone 2" and do it with just 6 players.

I expect about a 70-30 split in time between Raji and his backup once the team is fully committed to being a 3-4 team. That gives his backup around 10 snaps per game IMO from the base, and maybe a couple more in situational duty such as short yardage and goal line defense. I don't expect his backup in for nickel or dime, pretty much ever. I don't see that player being on the field for more than 15 snaps per game. Raji has been described by MM and TT as a 3 down player, so I don't know if his backup will even get that much.

I am not suggesting to get rid of Pickett and forget to replace him. I'm not even suggesting to get rid of Pickett. I'm suggesting we resign Pickett at a lower salary. The money is the issue here, not his ability to be a solid backup for us. If Pickett can do the job for 5 million, and we can find someone else who can do it almost as good for 2 or 3 million, take the guy who can do it for 2 or 3 million unless Pickett agrees to renegotiate his contract at 2 or 3 million. If he does, he's a Packer.

And, like I said, you can offer incentives for playing time on top of his salary just in case he's asked to step in and play full time. Hell, you can make it worth a potential 5 million per season IF he meets those incentives (meaning Raji probably got hurt, and Pickett had to start for awhile). All I'm saying is I'd only offer a guy a starters salary if he is actually starting.

[Patler]

I expect about a 70-30 split in time between Raji and his backup once the team is fully committed to being a 3-4 team. That gives his backup around 10 snaps per game IMO from the base, and maybe a couple more in situational duty such as short yardage and goal line defense. I don't expect his backup in for nickel or dime, pretty much ever. I don't see that player being on the field for more than 15 snaps per game. Raji has been described by MM and TT as a 3 down player, so I don't know if his backup will even get that much.

Sorry, I guess I'm being a little dense, so help me out here. I'm not following your numbers and the translation from the 70%-30% split to the number of plays. Assuming a game has about 65 plays combined running and passing (not including punts, or fieldgoals):

How many of those 65 plays would you expect Raji to play without his backup?
How many would you expect the backup to play without Raji?
How many would you expect both to play, and what situations?
How many do you expect neither to play, and what situations?
How about the 5-6 punts and FGs, do you expect either to play on those?

Are you expecting Raji to play 50 snaps/game, or are you expecting a lot of plays with neither Raji nor his backup in the game?

[Gunakor]

I expect about a 70-30 split in time between Raji and his backup once the team is fully committed to being a 3-4 team. That gives his backup around 10 snaps per game IMO from the base, and maybe a couple more in situational duty such as short yardage and goal line defense. I don't expect his backup in for nickel or dime, pretty much ever. I don't see that player being on the field for more than 15 snaps per game. Raji has been described by MM and TT as a 3 down player, so I don't know if his backup will even get that much.

Sorry, I guess I'm being a little dense, so help me out here. I'm not following your numbers and the translation from the 70%-30% split to the number of plays. Assuming a game has about 65 plays combined running and passing (not including punts, or fieldgoals):

How many of those 65 plays would you expect Raji to play without his backup?
How many would you expect the backup to play without Raji?
How many would you expect both to play, and what situations?
How many do you expect neither to play, and what situations?
How about the 5-6 punts and FGs, do you expect either to play on those?

Are you expecting Raji to play 50 snaps/game, or are you expecting a lot of plays with neither Raji nor his backup in the game?

Well, the NT isn't going to be on the field for 65 snaps. Probably closer to around 45-50 snaps or so, I'd imagine. Out of those 50 snaps that a NT is on the field for, I'd expect Raji to be in for 35 or so. His backup the other 15.

But that doesn't mean Raji is limited to that, because he is described as a 3 down player. He can provide inside pass rush, so I think they'd line him up as an interior DL even in the nickel. So he would get more than the 35 or so snaps at NT alone. I really expect this kid to be on the field as often as they can get him into the game in a few years time. By 2011 he could very well be seeing 50 snaps a game or more, if MM and TT are to be believed that Raji can play 3 downs.

I don't expect very many defensive snaps at all with neither of them, but to be honest, looking forward I don't expect very many snaps without Raji himself on the field. He's a very unique physical specimen oozing with talent and ability.

For the record, does anyone know what our nickel and dime formations will look like? Will nickel be a 4-2 alignment or a 2-4? 4-2, both are on the field. 2-4, maybe Raji, maybe not. I'm not sure. That also will have a lot to do with how often Raji's backup sees the field.

Other than that, maybe his backup could be a valuable contributor in FG's (hadn't thought about those snaps) and otherwise just short yardage and goal line when Dom stacks the line with bigs.

[RashanGary]

If it were me, I'd start Pickett. I'd play Pickett in most base downs and in all goalline.

I'd play Raji in all nickle (as a pass rusher inside), all goalline (as the extra lineman) and some base (to fill in some extra snaps so he and Pickett get even playing time). Raji should play a lot of snaps, I just think it would be a waste to use him as a space eater this early in his career. Right now he can get after the QB. There is no way he shoudl play over 70% of hte snaps. He and Pickett can each play about 70% right now. Some at end, some at NT and some as traditional DT's in a 4-3 alignment.

[RashanGary]

And for the record, anyone who thinks we have a log jam at NT, that is going to make someone good sit on the bench is crazy and has no clue how defensive line rotations work :) :)

Sorry, I had to go there. It's true.

[Gunakor]

If it were me, I'd start Pickett. I'd play Pickett in most base downs and in all goalline.

I'd play Raji in all nickle (as a pass rusher inside), all goalline (as the extra lineman) and some base (to fill in some extra snaps so he and Pickett get even playing time). Raji should play a lot of snaps, I just think it would be a waste to use him as a space eater this early in his career. Right now he can get after the QB. There is no way he shoudl play over 70% of hte snaps. He and Pickett can each play about 70% right now. Some at end, some at NT and some as traditional DT's in a 4-3 alignment.

I agree, this year. But, again, we're not talking about this year. We are talking about a couple years down the road, when Pickett is due for free agency. Predict the future. That's what I'm doing, and I don't see Pickett as our starting NT a few years down the line.

I also don't see many 4-3 looks in a few years, if any at all. I think this team is going to fully commit to the 3-4 at some point in the very near future.

[Gunakor]

And for the record, anyone who thinks we have a log jam at NT, that is going to make someone good sit on the bench is crazy and has no clue how defensive line rotations work :) :)

Sorry, I had to go there. It's true.

You haven't been following. I don't think we have a log jam at NT. I think we have too much money invested there right now. I have no problem with resigning Pickett after his contract expires, but not at 5 million per year unless he's still starting.

[RashanGary]

In a 4-3 defense, I think you have 6 starting lineman. IN a 3-4 defense, you have 5 starting lineman as I see it.

If there is one area on a team that you can afford to put a few extra dollars in, it's the DL. Corey Williams wanted a big payday. When negotiations started, they ended almost immediately becuase CW wanted to get paid like the 8 sack per year DT he was (near the top of DT's). If Pickett thinks he's worth top dollar, I understand letting him go. 5 mil per year is not top dollar though. He's worth that, easy, and he'll play a lot whether he's a backup or starter. Who cares if it says starter by his name. If he plays the same amount of snaps he's impacting the game. People need to stop getting caught up in titles and look at the reality of it. The reality is more than 3 guys play a lot of snaps on the DL so you can't just pay 3 and think you're all set. I think we found that out last year when we tried to get by with 4.

[Gunakor]

In a 4-3 defense, I think you have 6 starting lineman. IN a 3-4 defense, you have 5 starting lineman as I see it.

If there is one area on a team that you can afford to put a few extra dollars in, it's the DL. Corey Williams wanted a big payday. When negotiations started, they ended almost immediately becuase CW wanted to get paid like the 8 sack per year DT he was (near the top of DT's). If Pickett thinks he's worth top dollar, I understand letting him go. 5 mil per year is not top dollar though. He's worth that, easy, and he'll play a lot whether he's a backup or starter. Who cares if it says starter by his name. If he plays the same amount of snaps he's impacting the game. People need to stop getting caught up in titles and look at the reality of it. The reality is more than 3 guys play a lot of snaps on the DL.

I clearly laid out how I expect the snaps to be distributed between him and Pickett earlier in the thread. I expect Raji will be in on every running down and many passing downs in a few years. This comes both from his combination of size and agility and explosiveness, and comments from MM and TT that Raji is expected to be a 3 down player.

It's not about title. It is about the number of snaps. I honestly do not think Pickett will be getting the same number of snaps a few years from now as he will be this year. As his total snaps decrease going forward, so will his value to us. I could be wrong, but that's what I think.

[Cheesehead Craig]

Gotcha Gunakor, you are speaking about several seasons for now in regards to the PT. I originally thought you were talking about this coming season. I'm raking what your making now my man.

[Gunakor]

Gotcha Gunakor, you are speaking about several seasons for now in regards to the PT. I originally thought you were talking about this coming season. I'm raking what your making now my man.

Right. Pickett isn't going anywhere this season anyways. No sense arguing about his salary after an extension before we've even heard whispers of an extension in the works anyway. Let's see if he even wants to be here after his contract expires first before arguing about how much money he should be making.

[HarveyWallbangers]

Presser with Matthews and Raji. Raji said the coaches will have him play NT and DE. Could be a situation similar to Baltimore with Gregg and Ngata--while Pickett is here.

http://www.greenbaypressgazette.com/ic/blogs/insider/index.shtml


Raji: Talked with d-line coach today, talked about where playing. Will play some nose tackle, some defensive end.