"Patience While the Packers Grow Up"

[vince]

http://myespn.go.com/blogs/nflnation/0-8-228/Patience-while-the-Packers-grow-up.html


Patience While the Packers Grow Up
June 30, 2009 12:00 PM
Posted by ESPN.com's Kevin Seifert

This is what happens when you build around young players.

They get older.

And they want to get paid.

After three years of fielding the NFL's youngest team, Green Bay has entered the next -- and decidedly less fun -- phase in the development of its program. In the past year, the Packers have signed four veterans to contracts worth a total of $116.5 million, but they still have 15 players whose contracts will expire after this season. Seven are likely starters, and one (safety Nick Collins) hasn't said for sure whether he will report to training camp without a new deal.

Decisions will have to be made and feelings inevitably will be hurt. This crossroads is neither unexpected nor avoidable, but for the Packers it's no less pressing than their conversion to a 3-4 defense as they attempt to rebound from a 6-10 season.

"There is always an evolution of a team," general manager Ted Thompson said. "At different points in people's careers, certain things happen. And we're trying to take care of our business the best we can. Each year your team matures, and we have a larger number of young guys that are getting ready for the next phase of their careers, and that's something that's our job to deal with."

Since his arrival in 2005, Thompson has taken a disciplined approach to building through the draft. You can praise him for developing players who are now worthy of extensions, or you can criticize him for structuring an unbalanced team. Regardless, his choice now is either to maintain the nucleus he has built or cast it aside for another young crop of players.

It's hard to imagine the Packers starting over, but the financial constraints of the NFL's salary cap will likely result in some players being excluded. That unavoidable byproduct has added a new layer to locker room dynamics as players try to figure out where they stand and inevitably compare their situations to others'.

A few players on the list could well be entering their final season with the team, most notably left tackle Chad Clifton (age 33) and nose tackle Ryan Pickett (30 in October). Such departures are a fact of life in the NFL. The unusual segment of the Packers' scenario is how many young players are approaching the end of their first contracts -- a group that includes Collins, right guard Daryn Colledge and safety Atari Bigby.

Collins appears to be the most aggrieved. He and his teammates have watched the Packers extend the contract of tailback Ryan Grant, who staged a training camp holdout last summer even though he was three years away from free agency. They saw quarterback Aaron Rodgers sign a $65 million deal after seven NFL starts. Reserve safety Jarrett Bush got a three-year deal after wading through the restricted free-agent market. Just last week, receiver Greg Jennings signed a lucrative extension.

You could argue that Grant, Rodgers and Jennings are three of the Packers' most indispensable players. None is older than 26, and all three project as starters for the duration of their contracts. Nevertheless, I keep thinking of an obvious but relevant physiological truism: People are human. (OK, so I heard Minnesota legend Sid Hartman say it once and thought it was funny -- and true. Sue me.)

Indeed, people are human. Defensible or not, it's only natural for a player whose contract is near expiration to wonder why, say, Grant got paid and he didn't. Shortly after the Jennings deal was announced, Collins told Wisconsin reporters:

"There's a lot of guys coming up on free agency next year. I'm just glad somebody got it. Greg's a great guy. He deserves it. Hopefully, things work out for me."

Collins, who earned a Pro Bowl berth last season, said "we'll see" when asked if he will report to training camp without a deal. It's clear he is miffed the Packers decided to open their purse strings for Jennings but not him. It's a perception Thompson can do little about, but he does acknowledge the potential repercussions.

"It's never a case of really putting priority on one player or another," Thompson said. "We don't want players thinking that they're competing against [each other] or anything like that. The organization does have to make decisions as we move along."

Jennings earned his extension and is part of an exclusive internal club of players who have been taken care of. He realizes his teammates were carefully watching him this offseason and offered this advice: "Good things come to those who wait."

I don't think I'm exaggerating to say that patience, or a lack thereof, will be the most critical virtue for the Packers this season. This important but ultimately non-football issue won't impact their performance in 2009. As long as they don't let it.

Green Bay Extensions Since Last Summer
Date...............Player...............Pos...Year s.....Total...Guaranteed money
August 2008....Ryan Grant.......RB....4 years...$20M.....$4M
October 2008...Aaron Rodgers..QB...6 years....$65M....$20M
March 2009......Jarrett Bush......DB...3 years....$4.5M...$1M
June 2009.......Greg Jennings...WR...3 years....$27M...$16M
Total: Four contracts worth total of $116.5 million, including $41 million in guarantees.

Key Packers Approaching Free Agency
• Safety Atari Bigby*
• Defensive back Will Blackmon
• Offensive lineman Chad Clifton
• Linebacker Brandon Chillar
• Offensive lineman Daryn Colledge*
• Safety Nick Collins
• Defensive lineman Johnny Jolly*
• Linebacker Aaron Kampman
• Tight end Tory Humphrey*
• Fullback John Kuhn*
• Receiver Ruvell Martin*
• Guard/Tackle Tony Moll
• Nose tackle Ryan Pickett
• Center/guard Jason Spitz
• Cornerback Tramon Williams+

*Will be a restricted free agent if NFL moves to an uncapped system in 2010
+Will be restricted free agent only if NFL has a new CBA in 2010
It's a stretch to say that all these guys are "key" players. I'd take Clifton, Chillar, Jolly, Humphrey, Kuhn, Martin, and Moll off the "Key Players" list immediately for a variety of different reasons, and Kampman, Bigby and Collins may well end up being eminently replaceable as well - at least at the price they might fetch in free agency. And, I'm a Blackmon fan for his return skills, but he may demand - and get - too much money relative to his actual value. Any of those guys would probably hurt, but tough decisions may have to be made.

I happen to agree with the apparent Packers approach with Collins to call his bluff and see how things progress. If he's quarterbacking the DB's in the new defensive scheme that requires constant communication and coverage changes, he's my biggest concern heading into the year - whether or not he holds out.

[woodbuck27]

I read that and I wouldn't want Ted Thompson's job right now. This season is huge and the Packers must improve to at least 9-10 wins. Otherwise I believe we'll be looking at the provebial sinking ship syndrome.

Ted Thompson has what ? Four more years on his contract. The team must pick it up over the next two and do so in some dramatic fashion . Otherwise we may see an early change at GM.

GO PACKERS!

[HarveyWallbangers]

I read that and I wouldn't want Ted Thompson's job right now. This season is huge and the Packers must improve to at least 9-10 wins. Otherwise I believe we'll be looking at the provebial sinking ship syndrome.

Ted Thompson has what ? Four more years on his contract. The team must pick it up over the nextb two and do so in some dramatic fashion . Otherwise we may see an early change at GM.

GO PACKERS!

I can't disagree with any of this.

[Lurker64]

When you look at the list of upcoming free agents, the situation isn't exactly dire. Of the list, only Kampman, Collins, and Colledge should command big contracts (if we decide to retain Kampman). Spitz and Pickett should command middle of the road contracts (if we decide to retain Pickett). Tramon is in line for a long term contract, but he's an RFA next year anyway so he's not complicated. Bigby, Chillar, Blackmon, Martin, Kuhn, Jolly, Humphrey, and Moll shouldn't command sizeable deals, and some of these guys may not the final roster.

Ultimately, depending on how some guys adjust to the 3-4, a lot of these players may be deemed replaceable. I think only Colledge is truly a "must-sign"; though I would do my darnedest to sign Spitz and Collins depending on their demands. Kampman, Pickett, Bigby, and Jolly are "extend during the season" if they adjust well to the new defense (though Pickett may be gone anyway, depending on how Raji looks, and Jolly may be gone if the legal system doesn't work in his favor). Guys like Chillar, Blackmon, Martin, Kuhn, and Humphrey are on the bubble for the roster anyway, so there's no need to immediately do something. But no hearts would be broken if none of these guys are playing here this season let alone next. Clifton definitely doesn't deserve a new contract now, but you would consider offering him one after the season depending on how he's holding up. He seemed to have lost a step last year and was a liability in the run game, so if one of the youngsters looks ready to start, he's probably replaceable.

Given the cap space we have, it's definitely a doable task.

[Jimx29]

Ted Thompson has what ? Four more years on his contract. I believe both TT and M3 took advantage of Bretts 2007 season to quickly sign 5 years extensions. woo-yeh.....

[vince]

When you look at the list of upcoming free agents, the situation isn't exactly dire. Of the list, only Kampman, Collins, and Colledge should command big contracts (if we decide to retain Kampman). Spitz and Pickett should command middle of the road contracts (if we decide to retain Pickett). Tramon is in line for a long term contract, but he's an RFA next year anyway so he's not complicated. Bigby, Chillar, Blackmon, Martin, Kuhn, Jolly, Humphrey, and Moll shouldn't command sizeable deals, and some of these guys may not the final roster.

Ultimately, depending on how some guys adjust to the 3-4, a lot of these players may be deemed replaceable. I think only Colledge is truly a "must-sign"; though I would do my darnedest to sign Spitz and Collins depending on their demands. Kampman, Pickett, Bigby, and Jolly are "extend during the season" if they adjust well to the new defense (though Pickett may be gone anyway, depending on how Raji looks, and Jolly may be gone if the legal system doesn't work in his favor). Guys like Chillar, Blackmon, Martin, Kuhn, and Humphrey are on the bubble for the roster anyway, so there's no need to immediately do something. But no hearts would be broken if none of these guys are playing here this season let alone next. Clifton definitely doesn't deserve a new contract now, but you would consider offering him one after the season depending on how he's holding up. He seemed to have lost a step last year and was a liability in the run game, so if one of the youngsters looks ready to start, he's probably replaceable.

Given the cap space we have, it's definitely a doable task.
http://www.profootballtalk.com/2009/06/26/breaking-down-greg-jennings-payday/
And Jennings’ new salary-cap figure is $8.154 million, which leaves the Packers $21.5 million under the NFL’s salary cap.

[cpk1994]

Ted Thompson has what ? Four more years on his contract. I believe both TT and M3 took advantage of The Packers 2007 season to quickly sign 5 years extensions. woo-yeh.....Fixed for accuracy. Brett wasn't responsible for 2007 alone.

[Lurker64]

I think 21.5 million is enough to get this done, but does anybody know offhand which players have contracts expiring the year after this one (i.e. guys who would be in the situation described in the article a year from now)?

[woodbuck27]

Ted Thompson has what ? Four more years on his contract. I believe both TT and M3 took advantage of The Packers 2007 season to quickly sign 5 years extensions. woo-yeh.....Fixed for accuracy. Brett wasn't responsible for 2007 alone.

The 2007 Packers with Favre have a 13-3 regular season record. The Green Bay Packers are also NFCN Champions and runner-up to the NFC Champion and Super Bowl Champion NY Giants.

The 2008 Packers without Favre are 6-10. Yes! Headed in a new direction.

[HarveyWallbangers]

The 2007 Packers with Favre have a 13-3 regular season record. The Green Bay Packers are also NFCN Champions and runner-up to the NFC Champion and Super Bowl Champion NY Giants.

The 2008 Packers without Favre are 6-9. Yes! Headed in a new direction.

2007 Packers were a different team than the 2008 Packers. The defense had a much bigger dropoff from the 2007 to the 2008 season than the QB position. Same with the RB position. Same with special teams.

[Gunakor]

Ted Thompson has what ? Four more years on his contract. I believe both TT and M3 took advantage of The Packers 2007 season to quickly sign 5 years extensions. woo-yeh.....Fixed for accuracy. Brett wasn't responsible for 2007 alone.

The 2007 Packers with Favre have a 13-3 regular season record. The Green Bay Packers are also NFCN Champions and runner-up to the NFC Champion and Super Bowl Champion NY Giants.

The 2008 Packers without Favre are 6-9. Yes! Headed in a new direction.

I blame that completely on Corey Williams.

No wait. Rather I blame that one completely on injuries sustained in 2008 that were not sustained in 2007.

Wait, it also could have been the steep decline in production from our veteran tackles.

It was a combination of things Ed. CPK is right, 2007 wasn't all Brett Favre. Favre doesn't get all the credit for 2007 same as Rodgers doesn't get all the blame for 2008.

[woodbuck27]

Ted Thompson has what ? Four more years on his contract. I believe both TT and M3 took advantage of The Packers 2007 season to quickly sign 5 years extensions. woo-yeh.....Fixed for accuracy. Brett wasn't responsible for 2007 alone.

The 2007 Packers with Favre have a 13-3 regular season record. The Green Bay Packers are also NFCN Champions and runner-up to the NFC Champion and Super Bowl Champion NY Giants.

The 2008 Packers without Favre are 6-9. Yes! Headed in a new direction.

I blame that completely on Corey Williams.

No wait. Rather I blame that one completely on injuries sustained in 2008 that were not sustained in 2007.

Wait, it also could have been the steep decline in production from our veteran tackles.

It was a combination of things Ed. CPK is right, 2007 wasn't all Brett Favre. Favre doesn't get all the credit for 2007 same as Rodgers doesn't get all the blame for 2008.

I don't blame 2008 on Aaron Rodgers Gunakor. The point I want to make is that no one player can be given credit or faulted or blamed for the results of a season.

PACKERS!

[Gunakor]

I don't blame 2008 on Aaron Rodgers Gunakor. The point I want to make is that no one player can be given credit or faulted or blamed for the results of a season.

I know you don't blame 2008 on Aaron Rodgers. That's why I used that example. Since you don't place all blame on Rodgers for 2008, you can't give all credit to Favre for 2007. I'm glad we agree :D

You are the one who said:


The 2007 Packers with Favre have a 13-3 regular season record. The Green Bay Packers are also NFCN Champions and runner-up to the NFC Champion and Super Bowl Champion NY Giants.

The 2008 Packers without Favre are 6-9. Yes! Headed in a new direction

This is what I was responding to. The comparison suggests the exact opposite of what we are apparently in agreement about.

[pbmax]

If T2 and M3 want to cough up some cash or years, they should do so. But in the accounting books it should read that defense and special teams were the causes for their failures in 2008.

I seem to remember a thread about this.... :lol:

[sheepshead]

I read that and I wouldn't want Ted Thompson's job right now. This season is huge and the Packers must improve to at least 9-10 wins. Otherwise I believe we'll be looking at the provebial sinking ship syndrome.

Ted Thompson has what ? Four more years on his contract. The team must pick it up over the next two and do so in some dramatic fashion . Otherwise we may see an early change at GM.

GO PACKERS!

No way. MM goes first and I believe he's in a very hot seat. A GM doesnt lose 7 games by 3 points.

[vince]

I think 21.5 million is enough to get this done, but does anybody know offhand which players have contracts expiring the year after this one (i.e. guys who would be in the situation described in the article a year from now)?
Contracts Set to Expire in 2010

Donald Driver
Cullen Jenkins
Brandon Jackson
James Jones
Aaron Rouse
Alan Barbre
Corey Hall
Desmond Bishop
Mason Crosby
Brett Goode
Danny Lansanah

It's likely a much easier task after this year. I wouldn't project many big challenges on this list.

[Joemailman]

I think 21.5 million is enough to get this done, but does anybody know offhand which players have contracts expiring the year after this one (i.e. guys who would be in the situation described in the article a year from now)?

Donald Driver
Brandon Jackson
James Jones
Aaron Rouse
Allen Barbre
Corey Hall
Desmond Bishop
Mason Crosby
Brett Goode
Danny Lansanah

Not sure about Anthony Smith and Duke Preston.

[Partial]

Team will be fine over the next few years as TT is building enough depth to let some of the young, good players go that he'd have to pay an arm and a leg to keep.

Keep your stars. I <3 the contract he gave Jennings, but I'm not crazy about greatly overpaying for an unproven Rodgers (though this contract will probably look much better in a year or two given the way contracts are going to explode given the CBA being renegoiated). Let the replaceable guys go and get paid by somebody else.

This team will be really, really good if Raji is a star. The really desperately need one more super star.

[vince]

Not sure about Anthony Smith and Duke Preston.
Smith and Preston both signed two-year deals, which would add them to the 2010 list as well.
Smith (http://www.madison.com/wsj/home/sports/441975)
Preston (http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/41954577.html)

[Gunakor]

Keep your stars. I <3 the contract he gave Jennings, but I'm not crazy about greatly overpaying for an unproven Rodgers (though this contract will probably look much better in a year or two given the way contracts are going to explode given the CBA being renegoiated).

Rodgers' contract is heavy on the front end. It looks bigger than it really is. His cap number last year was around 12 million. This year it's slightly less than 10 million. Next year it drops considerably, to about 6 million. Then 7.5 the year after that. He's probably not going to put up 4k every year, but lets say he puts up 3.5k for the next 3 seasons and the team record improves by 2 wins per season - I don't think that's too unrealistic an expectation. In 2011 we'll have a QB who threw for 3500 yards and helped lead his team to a 12-4 record playing for a measly 7.5 million dollars in a league full of 14 million dollar starting quarterbacks. Bargain. I'll take it.

[cpk1994]

Ted Thompson has what ? Four more years on his contract. I believe both TT and M3 took advantage of The Packers 2007 season to quickly sign 5 years extensions. woo-yeh.....Fixed for accuracy. Brett wasn't responsible for 2007 alone.

The 2007 Packers with Favre have a 13-3 regular season record. The Green Bay Packers are also NFCN Champions and runner-up to the NFC Champion and Super Bowl Champion NY Giants.

The 2008 Packers without Favre are 6-9. Yes! Headed in a new direction.Brett doesn't play defense of special teams. You know, the units that went from top 10 to bottom 10. Favre wasn't the sole reason for 2007. That is pure BS Favre cult propaganda.

[ThunderDan]

Ted Thompson has what ? Four more years on his contract. I believe both TT and M3 took advantage of The Packers 2007 season to quickly sign 5 years extensions. woo-yeh.....Fixed for accuracy. Brett wasn't responsible for 2007 alone.

The 2007 Packers with Favre have a 13-3 regular season record. The Green Bay Packers are also NFCN Champions and runner-up to the NFC Champion and Super Bowl Champion NY Giants.

The 2008 Packers without Favre are 6-9. Yes! Headed in a new direction.

I was sure we played in 16 games in 2008 and no way were we as good as 6-9, maybe more like 6-10. :lol:

[Packnut]

Ted Thompson has what ? Four more years on his contract. I believe both TT and M3 took advantage of The Packers 2007 season to quickly sign 5 years extensions. woo-yeh.....Fixed for accuracy. Brett wasn't responsible for 2007 alone.

The 2007 Packers with Favre have a 13-3 regular season record. The Green Bay Packers are also NFCN Champions and runner-up to the NFC Champion and Super Bowl Champion NY Giants.

The 2008 Packers without Favre are 6-9. Yes! Headed in a new direction.Brett doesn't play defense of special teams. You know, the units that went from top 10 to bottom 10. Favre wasn't the sole reason for 2007. That is pure BS Favre cult propaganda.

The flip side of your BS ANTI-Favre cult propaganda.......

[The Shadow]

Building a quality team takes time.
Thank God Thompson saw the team that reached the NFC title game had reached it's ceiling and changes had to be made.
He took the heat and made the necessary tough calls.
The future is bright.

[The Leaper]

The team is set up well going forward IMO. None of the free agents we have are key components...Thompson did well to lock up 2 of those already in Rodgers and Jennings. The thing with Thompson's draft strategy is...he always has guys coming up behind the 3-5 year vets. That wasn't true his first 2-3 years, because he had to restock the cupboard that Sherman had left bare.

The key now is coaching...because our defense looked frustrated way too often last season, and our special teams took a huge step backward. We need the new coaches to step up and dial the team into this new defensive system.

[vince]

I think 21.5 million is enough to get this done,
Colledge, Collins, Kampman, Pickett, Spitz, Bigby, Williams, Blackmon, Jolly, Chillar,...

As the devil's advocate, if special teams guy Jarrett Bush got a $1 million signing bonus, Grant with no leverage and a half year starting in got $4 mil, and Rodgers and Jennings got upwards of $10 mil, what do each of these guys warrant under a pay-as-you-go approach? What would you be pushing for if you had the track record of Aaron Kampman? How about Collins coming off what will presumably be 5 years of starting and a pro bowl - all under a rookie contract?

It may be doable, but it'll be very tight and there is a distinct possibility that a guy like Kampman doesn't fit, not to mention the possibility of losing Clifton, Jolly and Chillar altogether (Not that I'm suggesting any of that is catastrophic).

Some of these guys may get pushed into free agency and threaten to go elsewhere or at minimum have their signings go to next year's non-cap year (if that's what happens), and be added to the shorter list of key guys - Driver, Jenkins, Barbre (potentially), Jackson and Crosby. Since Tramon will still be an RFA, perhaps that makes the most sense. I believe Bigby would be an RFA next year as well due to the possible added year of RFA.

[vince]

Collins' Pro Bowl starting partner at Safety, Adrian Wilson, just signed this deal with the Cardinals earlier this month...

6/4/2009: Signed a five-year, $36.5 million contract. The deal contains $15.5 million guaranteed, including a $1 million signing bonus and Wilson's base salaries in years one and two. Another $2.5 million is available through incentives. $250,000 workout bonuses are available in years two through five. 2009: $8.5 million, 2010: $6.5 million, 2011: $3 million (+ $3 million roster bonus), 2012: $6.5 million, 2013: $7.5 million, 2014: Free Agent. Cap charge: $10.2 million (2009).
Perhaps Canty's deal is somewhat comparable to the ballpark Kampman might want except Kampman probably can't command a six-year deal, which would restrict the cap spread.

3/1/2009: Signed a six-year, $42 million contract. The deal contains $16 million guaranteed, including an $8.5 million signing bonus, Canty's first-year base salary, and $3.75 million of his year-two salary. $250,000 workout bonuses are available in years two through six. 2009: $3.75 million (+ $1.25 million roster bonus), 2010: $4.5 million, 2011: $5.25 million, 2012: $6 million, 2013: $6.25 million, 2014: $6.5 million, 2015: Free Agent. Cap charges: $5.45 million (2009), $6.45 million (2010), $7.2 million (2011), $7.95 million (2012), $8.2 million (2013), $6.75 million (2014).
And here's what OG Chris Snee re-signed for before last year when his contract came due with the Giants... I'm not saying Colledge is equal to Chris Snee, but this contract is now a couple years old, so it's at least something to compare and contrast against.

Here are the details of the new six-year extension for Giants G Chris Snee, according to his agent, Noel LaMontagne of EAS Sports:

* Total value of $41.25 million without escalators. With escalators, the max value of the deal is $43.5 million.
* $13.5-million signing bonus.
* Base salary average of $6.875 million.
* $17 million guaranteed.
* $23 million in the first three years of the contract.

Snee's salary for the upcoming season remains the same, but was incorporated in the new contract so the actual figure will change.
Some work will need to be done to restrict cap hits for each of these guys if their contracts are to be re-upped beginning with this year. It looks like the days of front-loading cap hits are over for the foreseeable future, and it's a good thing Thompson has had the foresight many here have lacked to carry cap space forward the last few years to cash in this year.

[Scott Campbell]

Nice work Vince.

I expect that cap money is reserved for guys that are 1) franchise cornerstones and 2) players that offer a good value for their contract amount. Players caught in between are why we have all those draft picks on the bottom of your roster.

[prsnfoto]

Colledge,(Nothing special) Collins(Above average), Kampman(Star), Pickett(Above average), Spitz(Average), Bigby(nothing special), Williams(nothing special), Blackmon(nothing special), Jolly(nothing special), Chillar(Average)


I think a lot on this board way over value some of our players and TT's drafting ability. They have a below average o-line, d-line, and running game, average LB's, and above average secondary,recievers and QB. Special teams is a complete joke and 99% of that falls directly in TT's lap. He got rid of the punter and best special teams player and replaced them with "HIS" guys and it was a fucktard move.

If there is not vast improvement this year the contracts won't be TT's problem anyhow!

[vince]

We can agree or disagree about which players up for renewal are studs or duds prsn, but this thread is about what to do with them. Are you proposing the Packers should let all those Bozo's walk next year?

If you're proposing the Packers should let TT walk, then I suggest starting a new thread about it.

[Fritz]

Since teams often do contracts as the deadline for cap money use nears around midseason, it would make sense to wait for a bit to see how players like Kampman and Collins do in this transition to the 3-4.

I would imagine too that if Collins and Kampman adapt about equally well to the new scheme, a "good soldier" like Kampman might get preferential treatment in the pecking order over someone like Collins - if Collins holds out at all from training camp.

I get a sense the team feels like it knows better what it has in Colledge and Spitz and will do their deals first, then wait and see how Kampman and Collins fair in the new scheme.

I do think people are undervaluing a guy like Pickett. I think he's still fairly young for a defensive lineman, and I think he's an important piece of the puzzle. I believe he's shown what he can do in the interior of the line and might be worth getting a new contract to, maybe in training camp.

[vince]

Since teams often do contracts as the deadline for cap money use nears around midseason, it would make sense to wait for a bit to see how players like Kampman and Collins do in this transition to the 3-4.

I would imagine too that if Collins and Kampman adapt about equally well to the new scheme, a "good soldier" like Kampman might get preferential treatment in the pecking order over someone like Collins - if Collins holds out at all from training camp.

I get a sense the team feels like it knows better what it has in Colledge and Spitz and will do their deals first, then wait and see how Kampman and Collins fair in the new scheme.

I do think people are undervaluing a guy like Pickett. I think he's still fairly young for a defensive lineman, and I think he's an important piece of the puzzle. I believe he's shown what he can do in the interior of the line and might be worth getting a new contract to, maybe in training camp.
100% agree with all that. It'll be interesting to see what they do with Pickett now that Raji is on board. My hope would be that TT shows sincere interest in re-upping Pickett, who then shows some loyalty and is a relatively easy signing. He's said many times that he feels at home in Green Bay. I think if he has his way, he'll be motivated to stay in GB, even if faced with the prospects of possibly getting fewer snaps over time.

[Scott Campbell]

I do think people are undervaluing a guy like Pickett. I think he's still fairly young for a defensive lineman, and I think he's an important piece of the puzzle. I believe he's shown what he can do in the interior of the line and might be worth getting a new contract to, maybe in training camp.


I think Pickett counted about $3M against our cap last year. I'm not sure what his cap number is for this year. Even if he got a pretty signficant raise, he wouldn't count that much more against our cap number.

[Scott Campbell]

I think 21.5 million is enough to get this done,
Colledge, Collins, Kampman, Pickett, Spitz, Bigby, Williams, Blackmon, Jolly, Chillar,...

As the devil's advocate, if special teams guy Jarrett Bush got a $1 million signing bonus, Grant with no leverage and a half year starting in got $4 mil, and Rodgers and Jennings got upwards of $10 mil, what do each of these guys warrant under a pay-as-you-go approach? What would you be pushing for if you had the track record of Aaron Kampman? How about Collins coming off what will presumably be 5 years of starting and a pro bowl - all under a rookie contract?

It may be doable, but it'll be very tight and there is a distinct possibility that a guy like Kampman doesn't fit, not to mention the possibility of losing Clifton, Jolly and Chillar altogether (Not that I'm suggesting any of that is catastrophic).

Some of these guys may get pushed into free agency and threaten to go elsewhere or at minimum have their signings go to next year's non-cap year (if that's what happens), and be added to the shorter list of key guys - Driver, Jenkins, Barbre (potentially), Jackson and Crosby. Since Tramon will still be an RFA, perhaps that makes the most sense. I believe Bigby would be an RFA next year as well due to the possible added year of RFA.



Keep in mind that on any new contracts, only a portion of the cap number would eat into our available cap space. Example - if Collins already counts $3M against our cap number this year, granting him an extension that put his cap number at $5M wouldn't reduce our space by $5M. It would reduce it by the incremental value of the new contract - or $2M in this case.

[pbmax]

Clifton is not going to have the same cap number either, even if he comes back. And I think we'll see a Brett next to Ted in the skybox before T2 gives $7 million or so per year to a guard and safety.

Jennings got nowhere near $10 mil, I understand rounding but that is too far. If he fails to hit incentives, his deal is just over $7 million per year. $7.5/year max.

[Fritz]

Which means you could theoretically front load a deal - if you tell him you'll pay him six mill or seven mill this year, you eat up say four more than you would have anyway, Collins gets a big payday in return for future years at a more reasonable price. The understanding would have to be though that this year's big payday would be a front-loading - not that if Collins gets back to the pro bowl he'll say he feels he's underpaid in the next year (when his sal cap number would go down) and want a new contract.

If he did that, he'd be gone.

[vince]

Yes, good point.

Here are each player's current cap number as best as I can determine.

Kampman.....6,000,000
Pickett..........3,500,000
Collins..........3,000,000
Chillar...........2,025,000
Bigby............1,545,000
Williams..........900,000
Colledge.........855,000
Spitz..............715,000
Blackmon.......638,000
Moll...............566,000
Jolly...............553,000

[Scott Campbell]

Which means you could theoretically front load a deal - if you tell him you'll pay him six mill or seven mill this year, you eat up say four more than you would have anyway, Collins gets a big payday in return for future years at a more reasonable price. The understanding would have to be though that this year's big payday would be a front-loading - not that if Collins gets back to the pro bowl he'll say he feels he's underpaid in the next year (when his sal cap number would go down) and want a new contract.

If he did that, he'd be gone.


Safeties don't get the huge money that other positions do. They're paid more like TE's or FB's.

[vince]

Clifton is not going to have the same cap number either, even if he comes back. And I think we'll see a Brett next to Ted in the skybox before T2 gives $7 million or so per year to a guard and safety.

Jennings got nowhere near $10 mil, I understand rounding but that is too far. If he fails to hit incentives, his deal is just over $7 million per year. $7.5/year max.
I'm trying to throw some numbers out there to figure out what these guys might be demanding. It's easy to say, "Collins should be a priority." or "Colledge should be next up." like many have, as well as "TT will and should never give a safety or guard $7 mil./yr." and one could even agree with both of those statements, but that doesn't get a deal done.

I'm with the "wait and see" camp on Collins, but it's fair to assume he is interested in getting something reasonably close to market rate for his services. What is that? I don't know, but his partner out in Hawaii has had a say in establishing it. Given your statements about TT's likely position, it suggests that signing some of these guys might not be such a slam dunk. What does Colledge think he could fetch on the open market? Hard to say, but I'd like to find some existing comparables for a 4-year solid starter coming off his rookie contract to have some basis for what I think he should be worth in today's continually escalating marketplace. In the time I took, I found Snee. He's likely better than Colledge, but it's at least something to work from.

I will say that I think TT got a steal with Jennings' new deal. I was a little quick in looking at Jennings guaranteed money and suggesting it is his cap number for this season... His cap number for '09 is 8.2 mil according to JSO.

[Lurker64]

Kampman.....6,000,000
Pickett..........3,500,000
Collins..........3,000,000
Chillar...........2,025,000
Bigby............1,545,000
Williams..........900,000
Colledge.........855,000
Spitz..............715,000
Blackmon.......638,000
Moll...............566,000
Jolly...............553,000

Looking towards the future:

Kampman will be reupped or tagged and traded, depending on how he adapts to the new defense. He's a "wait and see" guy, IMO.

Collins is likely a contentious negotiation as I believe Collins thinks he's worth significantly more than TT is willing to pay a safety. This one worries me.

Chillar is likely gone after this year, if not after camp.

Bigby might return, but Smith may surpass him at SS, guys like him aren't exactly special on the FA market, and if he does return he's not looking at a significant raise, as he already makes a fair amount.

Williams is an RFA next year, so you just tender him high and put him down under "next year's business" while working on a long-term deal all the while. Thompson's willingness to compensate him over the ERFA tender should make this a fairly smooth negotiation.

Colledge is reportedly Thompson's #1 priority after Jennings is done, and I think that a roughly $5m per year deal with significant incentives if he ends up starting at tackle should get it done. This is a big raise.

Spitz will return. How much he gets paid depends a lot on whether or not he wins the starting C job in camp, and how he does at it during the season. Provided he wins the job and plays well, he's looking at about 3m per year plus incentives. This is a sizeable raise.

For Blackmon? I'm not sure about him, he'll get paid as a return man and not as a CB, since that's really what he's on the roster for. I'm not honestly sure how much return guys make, excepting that ridiculous contract Hester signed (which is partially justified as they're playing him at WR).

Moll has to fight for a roster spot this year, and the odds of him making the roster aren't great. He's a journeyman, and shouldn't either cost a lot or be terribly missed.

Jolly could be interesting. A lot depends on his legal situation, and how well he plays at DE. He's probably a guy you want to keep and he's looking at a significant raise.

Before the season starts, I think priorities are Colledge and Collins (if he's willing to take a reasonable deal). Most of the rest of the guys are in "wait and see" territory, and wouldn't command huge deals if they hit the open market (as mid-range players often have significant inertia when offers are comparable, and they're happy where they are.)

[pbmax]

Clifton is not going to have the same cap number either, even if he comes back. And I think we'll see a Brett next to Ted in the skybox before T2 gives $7 million or so per year to a guard and safety.

Jennings got nowhere near $10 mil, I understand rounding but that is too far. If he fails to hit incentives, his deal is just over $7 million per year. $7.5/year max.
I'm trying to throw some numbers out there to figure out what these guys might be demanding. It's easy to say, "Collins should be a priority." or "Colledge should be next up." like many have, as well as "TT will and should never give a safety or guard $7 mil./yr." and one could even agree with both of those statements, but that doesn't get a deal done.

I'm with the "wait and see" camp on Collins, but it's fair to assume he is interested in getting something reasonably close to market rate for his services. What is that? I don't know, but his partner out in Hawaii has had a say in establishing it. Given your statements about TT's likely position, it suggests that signing some of these guys might not be such a slam dunk. What does Colledge think he could fetch on the open market? Hard to say, but I'd like to find some existing comparables for a 4-year solid starter coming off his rookie year to have some basis for what I think he should be worth in today's continually escalating marketplace. The closest I could find in the time I took was Snee. He's likely better than Colledge, but it's at least something to work from.

I will say that I think TT got a steal with Jennings' new deal. I was a little quick in looking at Jennings guaranteed money and suggesting it is his cap number for this season... His cap number for '09 is 8.2 mil according to JSO.
And it is possible Colledge gets close to Snee's number, if there is a cap and it keeps going up. If the owners win some savings, then either the cap will not rise for some time or it will need to readjust downward. Snee might have gotten the son-in-law bonus though.

Wilson vs. Collins:

...........Sk.....Int......Yds.....TD......Lng.... .PD......FF.....Fmb......FR......Yds.....TD......T kl.....Ast
Wilson...2.96....2.88....69.28...0.32....35.00...9 .44....2.08....0.00....0.96....21.44...0.32....79. 20...18.24

Collins..0.00....2.89....95.21...1.05....29.25...1 1.02...1.31....0.00....0.00....0.00....0.00....60. 59...13.90
Numbers are averages per season, assuming 16 games started (like ERA). A lot depends on whether Collins is the guy from last year or the previous 3. I can see his point more clearly while looking at these stats. He might be unlikely to duplicate that year in a new D, considering it took time in the last one.

[vince]

Thank you Lurk. You skipped Pickett though… How do you see that playing out?

So, just in simple pay-as-you-go terms (no front- or back-loading of cap space) and hypothetical round-number contracts with incentives built into the number that increase with the cap increase, I am going to throw some numbers together to see what this all looks like...

.................................................. ............................................Additi onal ’09 cap hit (in $ millions)
Kampman - $ 7 mil. NEXT YEAR.............................................. ......0
Collins - $ 5 mil. (I agree with you, I don’t think he’ll like this…).......2
Colledge - $ 5 mil. .................................................. ...................4
Spitz - $ 4 mil............................................... .............................3.5
Pickett - $ 4 mil............................................... ...........................1
Chillar – GONE.............................................. ..............................0
Bigby - $ 2 mil NEXT YEAR.............................................. .............0
Williams - $ 1.7 mil tender NEXT YEAR............................................0
Blackmon - $ 2 mil............................................... ......................1.5
Jolly - $ 4 mil............................................... ..............................3.5
Rooks............................................. ...........................................7
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
.................................................. .............................................22.5

I just took a guess with the rookies. I think the allowable cap space last year was $5.5. However, with 2 first rounders this year, that number is sure to rise I would think.

So, assuming the annual contract numbers above and no front- (or back-)loading of cap hit, and likely losing Chillar and Kampman, the players listed can be re-upped this year, give or take. The team will also want to hold onto some contingency cap space also though.

Keeping Kampman, who I believe will be just fine in the new D, and coming to terms with Collins, appear to be the biggest potential sticking points with the list.

I also think Jolly may not be re-upped, but that's just my personal opinion, and that is contingent on Harrell contributing. He could be another guy that gets pushed into next year or is lost to FA.

[vince]

Pushing Kampman, Bigby and Williams into next year makes re-uppiing the 2010 list of key players more challenging, although I have no idea how much cap space the team currently has committed for 2010.

Contracts Set to Expire in 2010
Donald Driver $6 mil
Cullen Jenkins $6 mil
Brandon Jackson $2 mil
James Jones $2 mil
Aaron Rouse $ 1.5 mil
Alan Barbre $ 3.5 mil
Corey Hall $ 1.5 mil
Desmond Bishop $ 1 mil
Mason Crosby $ 2 mil
Brett Goode $ .5 mil
Danny Lansanah $ 1 mil
Anthony Smith $ 2 mil
Duke Preston $ 2 mil
Projected
Aaron Kampman $10 mil
Atari Bigby $2 mil
Tramon Williams $2 mil

Of this list, I'd say Driver, Jenkins, Jackson, Kampman, Barbre, Crosby, Bigby (or Smith), and Williams would project to be key players. While it's only 8 guys instead of 11 from this year (including Jennings), Driver, Jenkins, and Kampman would all project to be in the $6 - $10 mil range, so while it maybe gets simpler with fewer guys, there are still some potentially serious dollars likely to go out the door.

While it appears doable while maintaining the established pay-as-you-go principles, thanks again to some cap carry-forward, things are certainly tightening up in the personnel budget department for the foreseeable future.

[Scott Campbell]

I think Collins biggest gripe may be that he's in the last year of his deal, and its his turn. $3M isn't bad for a safety that's performed the way he has. A modest per year increase could be secondary to cashing in on the accompanying signing bonus from his perspective.

[Lurker64]

Thank you Lurk. You skipped Pickett though… How do you see that playing out?

That's a wait and see, IMO. Personally, I think that the reason they've had Raji at DE and not at the Nose is that he's not ready to play NT in the NFL. He's got the body-type for it, but not the mindset or the experience. DE is, in a certain sense "easier", as he's going to see fewer complicated blocking schemes, and he'll be playing in a spot where his natural leverage is more of an advantage. It's definitely less of an adjustment for Raji who usually played in the B-gap in college, as he'll be lining up maybe a foot from where he's used to lining up (and "contain" isn't one of his jobs.)

Pickett is definitely a guy you feel okay about playing in the A-Gap, but he's not going to be a pro-bowler or a superstar.

So I think they evaluate the following things:
1) How ready is Raji to play the NT spot?
2) How effective is the Raji/Pickett tandem at DE/NT in the base defense?
3) How are we doing for depth at DE/NT?

I think that the more ready Raji is to play NT (which will be his eventual position) and the less effective having Raji playing next to Pickett, the better odds we have of just letting Pickett walk. We have a lot more guys with a shot to make the roster than can play DE (Jolly, Jenkins, Raji, Harrell, Malone, Wynn, Montgomery) than we do to play NT (Pickett, Raji, Harrell). Muhtadi and Toribio are purely PS players at this point. Generally, you want to have 4 DEs, 2 NTs, and one guy who can play both DE and NT for your DL spots. So if Muhtadi or Toribio progresses well on the PS this year, and both Raji and Harrell play well, Pickett may be gone.

Also, working in favor of the "Pickett is gone" theory is that the 2010 draft appears to be absolutely stacked with DT talent. Depending on various unpredictable draft factors, Pickett may be expendable if Raji is ready to start at the nose; as the NT is already a specialist position and the backup usually doesn't see a lot of play. At the very least, the number of quality DTs in the draft probably hurts Pickett's value on the open market.

If we do decide to keep Pickett, I could see his cap number being in the $5-$6 million range, a la Marcus Stroud or Kris Jenkins ($2-3 million or so signing bonus, and a salary that jumps around plus some incentives), and I believe his cap number last year was $3 million, but I don't know what it was for this year.

[vince]

I think Collins biggest gripe may be that he's in the last year of his deal, and its his turn. $3M isn't bad for a safety that's performed the way he has. A modest per year increase could be secondary to cashing in on the accompanying signing bonus from his perspective.
Maybe, but I think he also wants to get as much jack as he can. $ 3 mil. a year won't cut it for a new deal.

His new buddy with whom pb compared Collins' production just inked a $7+ mil./yr. deal for 5 years with $15.5 mil guaranteed. He'll probably sign for less than that (he probably will have to if he wants to remain a Packer), but I'd say that's the neighborhood his agent is camped out in right now.

[vince]

Thank you Lurk. You skipped Pickett though… How do you see that playing out?

That's a wait and see, IMO. Personally, I think that the reason they've had Raji at DE and not at the Nose is that he's not ready to play NT in the NFL. He's got the body-type for it, but not the mindset or the experience. DE is, in a certain sense "easier", as he's going to see fewer complicated blocking schemes, and he'll be playing in a spot where his natural leverage is more of an advantage. It's definitely less of an adjustment for Raji who usually played in the B-gap in college, as he'll be lining up maybe a foot from where he's used to lining up (and "contain" isn't one of his jobs.)

Pickett is definitely a guy you feel okay about playing in the A-Gap, but he's not going to be a pro-bowler or a superstar.

So I think they evaluate the following things:
1) How ready is Raji to play the NT spot?
2) How effective is the Raji/Pickett tandem at DE/NT in the base defense?
3) How are we doing for depth at DE/NT?

I think that the more ready Raji is to play NT (which will be his eventual position) and the less effective having Raji playing next to Pickett, the better odds we have of just letting Pickett walk. We have a lot more guys with a shot to make the roster than can play DE (Jolly, Jenkins, Raji, Harrell, Malone, Wynn, Montgomery) than we do to play NT (Pickett, Raji, Harrell). Muhtadi and Toribio are purely PS players at this point. Generally, you want to have 4 DEs, 2 NTs, and one guy who can play both DE and NT for your DL spots. So if Muhtadi or Toribio progresses well on the PS this year, and both Raji and Harrell play well, Pickett may be gone.

Also, working in favor of the "Pickett is gone" theory is that the 2010 draft appears to be absolutely stacked with DT talent. Depending on various unpredictable draft factors, Pickett may be expendable if Raji is ready to start at the nose; as the NT is already a specialist position and the backup usually doesn't see a lot of play. At the very least, the number of quality DTs in the draft probably hurts Pickett's value on the open market.

If we do decide to keep Pickett, I could see his cap number being in the $5-$6 million range, a la Marcus Stroud or Kris Jenkins ($2-3 million or so signing bonus, and a salary that jumps around plus some incentives), and I believe his cap number last year was $3 million, but I don't know what it was for this year.
All Pickett does is his job, and he does it pretty effectively. Capers repeatedly says that stopping the run is the first requirement for defensive success. I think you lock him in as the foundation of the D and then you can only improve from there. His job, while it's a specialist position, is too important to be caught with your pants down on. One injury there can dramatically impact the effectiveness of the defense if you don't have adequate depth at NT. The practice squad guys would have to make quite an impression to inject enough confidence to think they will do what Pickett has demonstrated the ability to do. They haven't demonstrated anything on Sunday which would remotely suggest Pickett is expendable without risk of setback. Draft picks, no matter how many accolades they have in college, to anchor the D right away? That's pretty risky too IMO.

[Lurker64]

What may also be interesting for the Collins negotiation is that the upcoming 2010 draft will be likely the deepest year ever for safeties (for some reason). The Packers probably won't have a shot at one of the elite talents like Eric Berry or Taylor Mays, but this year you should be able to get a good safety as late as the fourth round, there's so much talent at that position.

I wonder how outrageous Collins's demands would have to be before Thompson considers drafting a replacement next year.

[cheesner]

I have been wondering lately about the looming CBA negotiations and how this will affect the Packers (and other teams) from extending too many of their young players.

If the NFL goes to an uncapped year, all players who would become free agents for the first time, will have up to 3 more years to wait. These players, and the younger players, make up more than half of the NFL and can be the deciding factor in a vote for a CBA. Not becoming FAs will cost most of these players a significant amount of money. That is some serious leverage for the NFL owners to use to get a very favorable CBA approved.

I am predicting this: each team will only extend 1 or 2 players, like Jennings, who are about to become FAs. A new CBA will be agreed to sometime early in this upcoming football season. There will then be a bunch of extensions done at that point. I am not suggestion collusion or a conspiracy, it just makes too much sense for every team owner to see this advantage.

[pbmax]

I am of two minds about Pickett. He is clearly more movable than, say, Grady Jackson, but he is also able to move down the line. But last year Pickett got pushed around quite a bit by double teams. It might have been his bad wing, but I wouldn't be shocked if Ryan's next contract has a low ceiling unless he regains prior form.

Collins' contract will be a bet; will he continue to be the player from last season or will he revert in the new D? Of all the starters except for maybe Jolly, he is the one who has the most inconsistent career track. The positive for Collins is that his most recent play was his highest. I also think a deal for him this year will be at least a level below Wilson. If he duplicates 2008 results in '09, then Wilson will be the market.

[pbmax]

...
If the NFL goes to an uncapped year, all players who would become free agents for the first time, will have up to 3 more years to wait....
I think for UFA, the wait is 2 years. It currently is after year 4, it will be after year six in 2010. In 2011, all bets are off.

[ThunderDan]

Collins' contract will be a bet; will he continue to be the player from last season or will he revert in the new D? Of all the starters except for maybe Jolly, he is the one who has the most inconsistent career track. The positive for Collins is that his most recent play was his highest. I also think a deal for him this year will be at least a level below Wilson. If he duplicates 2008 results in '09, then Wilson will be the market.

Collins reminds me a lot of Sharper. Really didn't show up to start, than "boom" played well in his contract year. After Sharper sign his big deal it felt to me he went back more to his old play level.

I hope Collins has a great 2009 gets extended during the year and everyone is happy.

[woodbuck27]

Ted Thompson has what ? Four more years on his contract. I believe both TT and M3 took advantage of The Packers 2007 season to quickly sign 5 years extensions. woo-yeh.....Fixed for accuracy. Brett wasn't responsible for 2007 alone.

The 2007 Packers with Favre have a 13-3 regular season record. The Green Bay Packers are also NFCN Champions and runner-up to the NFC Champion and Super Bowl Champion NY Giants.

The 2008 Packers without Favre are 6-9. Yes! Headed in a new direction.

I was sure we played in 16 games in 2008 and no way were we as good as 6-9, maybe more like 6-10. :lol:

Thanks for picking that up. I corrected that post.

[cpk1994]

Ted Thompson has what ? Four more years on his contract. I believe both TT and M3 took advantage of The Packers 2007 season to quickly sign 5 years extensions. woo-yeh.....Fixed for accuracy. Brett wasn't responsible for 2007 alone.

The 2007 Packers with Favre have a 13-3 regular season record. The Green Bay Packers are also NFCN Champions and runner-up to the NFC Champion and Super Bowl Champion NY Giants.

The 2008 Packers without Favre are 6-9. Yes! Headed in a new direction.Brett doesn't play defense of special teams. You know, the units that went from top 10 to bottom 10. Favre wasn't the sole reason for 2007. That is pure BS Favre cult propaganda.


The flip side of your BS ANTI-Favre cult propaganda.......How is that propaganda. The defense and special teams dropped off dramitcally from 2007 to 2008. Those are facts. But we shouldn't let facts get in the way of kissing Favre's ass now shoud we? :roll:

[vince]

I am of two minds about Pickett. He is clearly more movable than, say, Grady Jackson, but he is also able to move down the line. But last year Pickett got pushed around quite a bit by double teams. It might have been his bad wing, but I wouldn't be shocked if Ryan's next contract has a low ceiling unless he regains prior form.

Collins' contract will be a bet; will he continue to be the player from last season or will he revert in the new D? Of all the starters except for maybe Jolly, he is the one who has the most inconsistent career track. The positive for Collins is that his most recent play was his highest. I also think a deal for him this year will be at least a level below Wilson. If he duplicates 2008 results in '09, then Wilson will be the market.
I'm with Lurker in that I have a bad feeling about the Collins situation. If you watch his most recent interview on Packers.com, he's clearly distraught over his situation already. It looks like he will be an important piece of the puzzle this year, and I've already said I agree with the wait-and-see approach with him, but this contract situation seems like it could continue to negatively impact him and ultimately affect his play, especially if he holds out and the Packers take a hardline stance.

With his enhanced role and inconsistent history in guiding the DBs in a simpler scheme, he needs to be absolutely 100% prepared and mentally in the game. If he's not, it becomes more likely we'll see the early version of Nick Collins and miscommunications could occur, and the entire team would suffer. That would upset him even more as his negotiating leverage drops due to inconstent play. His situation could snowball.

Like ThunderDan says, here's hoping none of that happens.

[ND72]

From what I've read this is kind of dumb...

#1 - How the Packers do on the field this year has more to do with Mike McCarthy, than Ted Thompson... lets make that clear.

#2 - It was how the Packers did in 2007, than how Brett did in 2007. It bothers me to no end how great we were that year because of Brett. Ok then, in Sherman's final year here, I completely blame everything on that idiot then, and she should have retired then unretired, then retired, then unretired, and played his shitty soap opera game then.

[Scott Campbell]

I think Collins biggest gripe may be that he's in the last year of his deal, and its his turn. $3M isn't bad for a safety that's performed the way he has. A modest per year increase could be secondary to cashing in on the accompanying signing bonus from his perspective.
Maybe, but I think he also wants to get as much jack as he can. $ 3 mil. a year won't cut it for a new deal.

His new buddy with whom pb compared Collins' production just inked a $7+ mil./yr. deal for 5 years with $15.5 mil guaranteed. He'll probably sign for less than that (he probably will have to if he wants to remain a Packer), but I'd say that's the neighborhood his agent is camped out in right now.


At $7M per year, I say sign and trade. Or tag and trade. He's not worth it.

[Waldo]

I think that Colledge's contract will be more related to Jake Scott's contract than Chris Snee. I'm thinking somewhere in the 4-5M range for him, probably closer to 5. Spitz will be a lot cheaper, C/G's that aren't elite G's don't make close to what a T/G that can play LT makes.

I don't think Ted is going to keep Collins unless Collins signs cheap. I don't think that he values S too highly. Ted let Williams get away when his flashy stat #'s necessitated a contract much larger than his actual ability, I think that Collins is in exactly the same boat with int's and TD's.

The roster has a lot of money sinks that can be freed up easily (Harris, Poppinga, Chillar, Clifton, Wells, Grant, Driver represent 29M in cap space), I don't think that any are irreplacable if there is a draft prior to playing a game, given the current roster.

[vince]

At $7M per year, I say sign and trade. Or tag and trade. He's not worth it.
I agree, but $3 mil is probably too little. My sense is that the Packers feel like they don't really know what he's worth right now, or at least that this is the worst possible time to negotiate with him since he's coming off an anamolously productive year.

He's the big question in my mind as to whether he'll not only be able to sustain his performance in the new D, but whether he'll be a liability in it. How he approaches this training camp and early season will probably determine which way this goes, and the way he's approaching things thus far, he doesn't appear to be doing himself any favors.

[vince]

I think that Colledge's contract will be more related to Jake Scott's contract than Chris Snee. I'm thinking somewhere in the 4-5M range for him, probably closer to 5. Spitz will be a lot cheaper, C/G's that aren't elite G's don't make close to what a T/G that can play LT makes.

I don't think Ted is going to keep Collins unless Collins signs cheap. I don't think that he values S too highly. Ted let Williams get away when his flashy stat #'s necessitated a contract much larger than his actual ability, I think that Collins is in exactly the same boat with int's and TD's.

The roster has a lot of money sinks that can be freed up easily (Harris, Poppinga, Chillar, Clifton, Wells, Grant, Driver represent 29M in cap space), I don't think that any are irreplacable if there is a draft prior to playing a game, given the current roster.
I'll take that. A year ago, Scott signed for $4.75 mil/yr. for 4 years with TN. Today then, plugging Colledge in at $5 mil seems pretty reasonable.

Regarding veteran turnover to open up cap space, I'd say your list minus Grant is your veteran turnover in the next two years. Dropping Clifton's salary alone would open the space necessary to deal far more effectively with Kampman next year, assuming Kampman performs well this year, and that Cliffy returns to form comes out of training camp this year as the starting LT).

I know you're not a Grant fan Waldo, and he did have a disappointing year in my opinion, but when healthy, he's a perfect fit for this attack. Granted he doesn't have a lot of shake, but he's big, fast, and has good vision. I think he's a strong one-cut runner. At his age, experience and lack of wear-and-tear, along with his incentive-laden contract for the next 3 years or so, I don't see him going anywhere. He's virtually guaranteed to be paid to his performance. No more no less. As the line gels, I look for him to get his ypc up over 4.5 again. It was over 5 his first season, but only 3.9 last year. With a healthy hammy, he should have more burst this year to get through the first level and break some long ones like we saw his first year, but were noticably absent last season. One of our resident OTA scouts (JH) specifically mentioned that Grant stood out as looking exceptionally fast this year.

Driver is an interesting situation. He appears to have a strong work ethic and keeps himself in great shape, and he's never been a burner, so I think he's likely to maintain his skills to an extent that would warrant the extension of a year or two that he seems to want, but I'll be surprised if he gets it, given the abilities of the other guys whose play could very well demand more opportunities for themselves in the next couple years.

[Fritz]

Clifton is not going to have the same cap number either, even if he comes back. And I think we'll see a Brett next to Ted in the skybox before T2 gives $7 million or so per year to a guard and safety.

Jennings got nowhere near $10 mil, I understand rounding but that is too far. If he fails to hit incentives, his deal is just over $7 million per year. $7.5/year max.
I'm trying to throw some numbers out there to figure out what these guys might be demanding. It's easy to say, "Collins should be a priority." or "Colledge should be next up." like many have, as well as "TT will and should never give a safety or guard $7 mil./yr." and one could even agree with both of those statements, but that doesn't get a deal done.

I'm with the "wait and see" camp on Collins, but it's fair to assume he is interested in getting something reasonably close to market rate for his services. What is that? I don't know, but his partner out in Hawaii has had a say in establishing it. Given your statements about TT's likely position, it suggests that signing some of these guys might not be such a slam dunk. What does Colledge think he could fetch on the open market? Hard to say, but I'd like to find some existing comparables for a 4-year solid starter coming off his rookie year to have some basis for what I think he should be worth in today's continually escalating marketplace. The closest I could find in the time I took was Snee. He's likely better than Colledge, but it's at least something to work from.

I will say that I think TT got a steal with Jennings' new deal. I was a little quick in looking at Jennings guaranteed money and suggesting it is his cap number for this season... His cap number for '09 is 8.2 mil according to JSO.
And it is possible Colledge gets close to Snee's number, if there is a cap and it keeps going up. If the owners win some savings, then either the cap will not rise for some time or it will need to readjust downward. Snee might have gotten the son-in-law bonus though.

Wilson vs. Collins:

...........Sk.....Int......Yds.....TD......Lng.... .PD......FF.....Fmb......FR......Yds.....TD......T kl.....Ast
Wilson...2.96....2.88....69.28...0.32....35.00...9 .44....2.08....0.00....0.96....21.44...0.32....79. 20...18.24

Collins..0.00....2.89....95.21...1.05....29.25...1 1.02...1.31....0.00....0.00....0.00....0.00....60. 59...13.90
Numbers are averages per season, assuming 16 games started (like ERA). A lot depends on whether Collins is the guy from last year or the previous 3. I can see his point more clearly while looking at these stats. He might be unlikely to duplicate that year in a new D, considering it took time in the last one.

I did not know that Collins is gay.

But that should not factor into re-signing him. I have more confidence that Kampman can adapt to the new scheme than I have in Collins. I'd like to see Collins through training camp and into a half-dozen games or so before extending him. However, he appears unwilling to show his wares. He wants to get paid.

Could there be any takers on the trade market? Maybe a safety-safety swap? The Pack could take on a bigger contract (or longer term, I should say) if the new guy is proven in the 3-4. But I don't know if that guy is out there, and if he is why anyone would want Collins in a 3-4 with a big contract, unless they felt he was a significant athletic upgrade over whoever they'd be trading.

It's so confusing.