Donald Driver

[mraynrand]

I saw a stat on a replay where Driver has the most receptions inside the 20s of any active receiver - both in absolute number (not too surprising because of years) and in percentage. Guy is tough as nails. Now when you talk about disrupting chemistry, DD is a guy you have to be really careful about releasing - because he does the dirty work and doesn't bitch about it. In fact, you can see it's a matter of pride with the guy. As long as he stays in shape, the Packers would do themselves a favor showing DD the money - not huge money, but enough to keep him.

[Freak Out]

Absolutely. It won't cost a fortune to keep him around.

[packerbacker1234]

Everyone likes DD. I see no reason we would not keep this guy around as long as he can keep his body in shape to play.

[Tyrone Bigguns]

Absolutely. It won't cost a fortune to keep him around.

Ty has long been off the DD bandwagon. DD put up some great #s and a large amount of that was that he was Bert's security blanket.

DD is on record as to wanting to play till he is 40. Ty doesn't think he can do it and be effective...nor does Ty think it would be wise to invest any dollars to make him a packer till 40.

At some point we have to transition to jones/jordy..or whomever.

As for cost...ty thinks you'll be surprised at what he wants.

[hoosier]

I saw a stat on a replay where Driver has the most receptions inside the 20s of any active receiver - both in absolute number (not too surprising because of years) and in percentage.

My biggest problem with Driver is that he SUCKS between the 20s. He's a drive killer with his drops. :lol:

[MOBB DEEP]

ALL that driver's done for pack i think anyone not in support of him being extended is insane

That being said, thats what i hate about the nature of the nfl (not for long), mere property in so many cases. It SUCKS that fans are often just as bad as the brass, treating these cats like pieces of meat. Thats why i LOVE when cats like Lord Favre exercise their leverage since its so rare.

[Waldo]

Driver is a very good support WR and a very bad top WR.

He needs to play with somebody better than him. That is how he thrives. His efficiency #'s drastically improve when he is the #2 guy. As the #1 guy he is sub par. Great guy, but he doesn't score enough or gain yards efficiently enough to be the point man of a high powered offense.

IMO he actually should be the #3 guy (via the slot WR technicality). Still be #2 in targets, but cede base snaps (2 WR) to Jones or Nelson, and come in as our slot WR, a role that he is anyway in 3+ WR sets, something that he is one of the league's best at.

IMO Jones and Jordy bring things to the 2 WR formation that DD doesn't bring. Jones runs a more complete route tree and has clutch receiving ability, Jordy is a far superior blocker, both in pass pro (he did some pass pro in the backfield vs. the Bears) and run blocking.

If I were in TT's position, I would offer to make DD top 3 (if not #1) in slot WR money, but go no higher, for the next 2 years.

[Scott Campbell]

ALL that driver's done for pack i think anyone not in support of him being extended is insane

That being said, thats what i hate about the nature of the nfl (not for long), mere property in so many cases. It SUCKS that fans are often just as bad as the brass, treating these cats like pieces of meat. Thats why i LOVE when cats like Lord Favre exercise their leverage




Since when is selling your soul considered "leverage"?

[MOBB DEEP]

ALL that driver's done for pack i think anyone not in support of him being extended is insane

That being said, thats what i hate about the nature of the nfl (not for long), mere property in so many cases. It SUCKS that fans are often just as bad as the brass, treating these cats like pieces of meat. Thats why i LOVE when cats like Lord Favre exercise their leverage




Since when is selling your soul considered "leverage"?

he he....not just favre; Eli and marshall

[Bossman641]

ALL that driver's done for pack i think anyone not in support of him being extended is insane

That being said, thats what i hate about the nature of the nfl (not for long), mere property in so many cases. It SUCKS that fans are often just as bad as the brass, treating these cats like pieces of meat. Thats why i LOVE when cats like Lord Favre exercise their leverage




Since when is selling your soul considered "leverage"?

he he....not just favre; Eli and marshall

Eli is such a douche. I'll never forgive him for acting the way he did.

[MOBB DEEP]

ALL that driver's done for pack i think anyone not in support of him being extended is insane

That being said, thats what i hate about the nature of the nfl (not for long), mere property in so many cases. It SUCKS that fans are often just as bad as the brass, treating these cats like pieces of meat. Thats why i LOVE when cats like Lord Favre exercise their leverage




Since when is selling your soul considered "leverage"?

he he....not just favre; Eli and marshall

Eli is such a douche. I'll never forgive him for acting the way he did.

Yeah, that was nuts! What about Elway then? I loved him before they beat us in SB...of course Ive grown to realize it wasnt his fault. he just played his hardest...sucks when players u like at one point end up beating ur squad later (e.g., LOVED duncan at wake but hated he beat my Knicks in '99)

[Tony Oday]

Driver is a very good support WR and a very bad top WR.

He needs to play with somebody better than him. That is how he thrives. His efficiency #'s drastically improve when he is the #2 guy. As the #1 guy he is sub par. Great guy, but he doesn't score enough or gain yards efficiently enough to be the point man of a high powered offense.

IMO he actually should be the #3 guy (via the slot WR technicality). Still be #2 in targets, but cede base snaps (2 WR) to Jones or Nelson, and come in as our slot WR, a role that he is anyway in 3+ WR sets, something that he is one of the league's best at.

IMO Jones and Jordy bring things to the 2 WR formation that DD doesn't bring. Jones runs a more complete route tree and has clutch receiving ability, Jordy is a far superior blocker, both in pass pro (he did some pass pro in the backfield vs. the Bears) and run blocking.

If I were in TT's position, I would offer to make DD top 3 (if not #1) in slot WR money, but go no higher, for the next 2 years.

Thank God in heaven your opinion doesnt matter to the coaching staff. DD has and is a stud in the offense, which he has proven time and again. He has clutch hands no Jones. DD has one bad game and people want to transition away from him which is absurd.

He may not score 10 TDs a game but he is a minimum 60 rec WR a year.

I agree he isn't as good as a #1 but I would argue he is a 1.5 on this team. He is FAR superior to Jones and Jordy at this point.

[RashanGary]

I'd keep him this year and next year at his current contract, then let him go in UFA. He was a great Packer, but his career is almost over. 2 more years, and then enter the Jennings/Jones/Nelson era.

[pbmax]

DD has and is a stud in the offense, which he has proven time and again. He has clutch hands no Jones. DD has one bad game and people want to transition away from him which is absurd.
Driver has not had just one bad game of drops. He and the rest of the crew had a bad case of drops last year. His hands are not his best skill. Clutch? Perhaps if you just wish to recall the ones he held on to.

If someone has kept McGinn's season reviews, he has the drop numbers in there every season. I would be surprised if Driver fares well in review. He isn't TO awful, but I would expect average.

[RashanGary]

If I had to rate hands, in order, I'd go like this:

Nelson
Jennings
Jones
Driver

But they're all close, all good.

[MichiganPackerFan]

ALL that driver's done for pack i think anyone not in support of him being extended is insane

That being said, thats what i hate about the nature of the nfl (not for long), mere property in so many cases. It SUCKS that fans are often just as bad as the brass, treating these cats like pieces of meat. Thats why i LOVE when cats like Lord Favre exercise their leverage




Since when is selling your soul considered "leverage"?

he he....not just favre; Eli and marshall

Eli is such a douche. I'll never forgive him for acting the way he did.

Exactly.

[Waldo]

The ability to catch targeted passes is more important than drops. Drops are subjective (at what point is a pass a drop), and aside from the easy to view embarrassment factor, tell you very little.

Some receivers are just better pass catchers than others. It is more than their hands. Ball tracking ability, trajectory anticipation, leaping ability, shielding ability, throw anticipation, physical ability to adjust, and hands all play a role. Jones is a pretty good player across the board, but at this particular skill he is elite. Don, while above average, is no more than pretty good. The only part of that equation that Jones isn't great at are his hands, however when you add it up, Jones catches the highest % of passes thrown to him of all our WR's.

In fact if people listen, I've said this all offseason. I'm not saying cut Driver phase him out. Use him for what he does best. Don is an ELITE slot WR. He is every bit as good as Wes Welker. All of his best work is done in the slot, and that is the area of the field he excels. We use him there anyway. But on the occasions that we put 2 WR's on the field, one of the other guys, Jordy or Jones, would be better options than Don IMO. Most of the time those are run plays anyway, and when they aren't, they typically are PA, where there is a lot of value to a sideline threat, something that Don is not. You want to see Finley kill em' down the seam on play action, it ain't going to happen with Don holding the safety in the middle of the field. Put two sidline go threats out there, and the safety is drawn away from the seam.

[bobblehead]

for anyone questioning DD's hands I have one thing to say:

ZERO: The number of dropped passes by DD in 2008!

[Waldo]

for anyone questioning DD's hands I have one thing to say:

ZERO: The number of dropped passes by DD in 2008!

64.3 - The % of targeted passes Don caught in 2008.

69.0 - The % of targeted passes Jones caught in 2008.

And if you are want to argue that Jones caught more dumpoffs and Don caught tougher passes, each one averaged 13.7 YPR last year. Each pass on average gained the same number of yards between the two players.

[HarveyWallbangers]

for anyone questioning DD's hands I have one thing to say:

ZERO: The number of dropped passes by DD in 2008!

64.3 - The % of targeted passes Don caught in 2008.

69.0 - The % of targeted passes Jones caught in 2008.

And if you are want to argue that Jones caught more dumpoffs and Don caught tougher passes, each one averaged 13.7 YPR last year. Each pass on average gained the same number of yards between the two players.

Each CATCH averaged the same gain. We don't know how far down the field each incompletion was. Also, Jones didn't get a lot of balls thrown his way because he wasn't healthy. Small sample size. Going by your stats, you are stating that an injured Jones was better than a healthy Driver last year.
:crazy:

The stats also don't tell you who covered each respective receiver. Driver got his stats going against a team's #1 or #2 corner and with occasional double teams. Jones got his stats mostly going against a team's #3 or #4 corner (nickelback or dimeback) and with little help.

[RashanGary]

And Jones really had a down year last year. Nothing was right. He was playing scared with that knee.

[sharpe1027]

for anyone questioning DD's hands I have one thing to say:

ZERO: The number of dropped passes by DD in 2008!

64.3 - The % of targeted passes Don caught in 2008.

69.0 - The % of targeted passes Jones caught in 2008.

And if you are want to argue that Jones caught more dumpoffs and Don caught tougher passes, each one averaged 13.7 YPR last year. Each pass on average gained the same number of yards between the two players.

There's a lot of variables that go into number like that, but I think there is something to be said about being an easier target for your QB.

The problem I see is that J. Jones hasn't put it all together yet, mostly due to injuries and concerns over ball-control/fumbles. Maybe he will this year. Also, I am not overly impressed with Nelson, he is fast, but I think DBs can see his speed coming and usually account for it. For example, JJ seems to be better at deceiving the DBs and getting open downfield.

ThAt is just some generalizations of what I remember, but I think they're fairly accurate.

[Waldo]

The 5 play theory strikes again.

(People's impressions of most players are based on nothing more really than about 5 plays. It is hard to recall more, almost every attribute that you give to the player from memory can be found in those 5 plays. Those 5 plays can change, new ones added and old ones swept away.)

Bigby gets a lot of stupid penalties because he kicked a football around week 11 of 2007. Never mind looking up how many penalties that Bigby actually has gotten, and what the trend is.

Jones has fumbling issues. He has lost 2 fumbles in has career, both were within 5 minutes of each other, about week 6 of his rookie year, he hasn't lost a fumble since. He is blamed for losing the game, yet a glance at the play by play shows it had virtually no impact on the game, GB got the ball back after the 2nd one with the score still 0-0.

Jones needs more plays like the bomb past Champ and the safety debilitating, helmet losing play against Cincy, to sweep away those fumbles, then he won't have fumbling problems anymore.

The way people recall non statistic based football data is really weird. Instead of remembering minor parts of many plays, people tend to recall fairly vivid details of only a few, and base their evaluations of players almost solely on these few plays.

[mraynrand]

, Jordy is a far superior blocker, both in pass pro (he did some pass pro in the backfield vs. the Bears) and run blocking.

I'll have to look at this. I'm not sure I can agree. Jordy, along with the tight end, botched the block on the end, that led to Rodgers being unable to step into his deep (under) throw to Jennings.

But I agree with your other points - going forward, I can see Driver giving up snaps and staying in that slot role on certain downs.

[Waldo]

I think the fact that he is used in the backfield to block is clearly indicative of how the coaches rank his blocking ability. No other WR in MM's tenure has seen any time blocking in the backfield.

Blocking ends and LB's is a whole different animal than CB's and S's.

Don has major holding problems. I believe that he was flagged for it 6 times last year, making him one of the most flagged players on the team, and he was flagged again for holding in PS.

[sharpe1027]

The 5 play theory strikes again.

(People's impressions of most players are based on nothing more really than about 5 plays. It is hard to recall more, almost every attribute that you give to the player from memory can be found in those 5 plays. Those 5 plays can change, new ones added and old ones swept away.)

Bigby gets a lot of stupid penalties because he kicked a football around week 11 of 2007. Never mind looking up how many penalties that Bigby actually has gotten, and what the trend is.

Jones has fumbling issues. He has lost 2 fumbles in has career, both were within 5 minutes of each other, about week 6 of his rookie year, he hasn't lost a fumble since. He is blamed for losing the game, yet a glance at the play by play shows it had virtually no impact on the game, GB got the ball back after the 2nd one with the score still 0-0.

Jones needs more plays like the bomb past Champ and the safety debilitating, helmet losing play against Cincy, to sweep away those fumbles, then he won't have fumbling problems anymore.

The way people recall non statistic based football data is really weird. Instead of remembering minor parts of many plays, people tend to recall fairly vivid details of only a few, and base their evaluations of players almost solely on these few plays.

Not so fast my friend!!! That's not what I meant at all. JJ was hardly seen for several games after those fumbles, a decision made by the coaches. Before that game he was seeing more and more time and looking better and better. So regardless of his actual issues with ball control, it did affect what we saw of him and our ability to judge him. Take a closer look at my post and you will note that the ball control is mentioned in the same context as his injuries (i.e., not being able to put it all together for a full year).

So please reconsider you condemnation of my post and give me the benefit of the doubt. :lol:

[Freak Out]

Absolutely. It won't cost a fortune to keep him around.

Ty has long been off the DD bandwagon. DD put up some great #s and a large amount of that was that he was Bert's security blanket.

DD is on record as to wanting to play till he is 40. Ty doesn't think he can do it and be effective...nor does Ty think it would be wise to invest any dollars to make him a packer till 40.

At some point we have to transition to jones/jordy..or whomever.

As for cost...ty thinks you'll be surprised at what he wants.

40! He wants to be the Lance Armstrong of the NFL.

[mraynrand]

I think the fact that he is used in the backfield to block is clearly indicative of how the coaches rank his blocking ability. No other WR in MM's tenure has seen any time blocking in the backfield.

That's an interesting point. You sure Ruvell wasn't back there? :)

Now I'm going to go back and look at blocking by receivers....

[Waldo]

Jones was out there.

In fact it was a major criticism of mine that season. About the same time the Drunk returned and Favre kept getting him involved despite his struggles getting open and catching it. Koren worked his way into the regular receiving lineup IMO based solely on #4's suggestions. He was not playing well, and other guys (like Jones) were often clearly superior places to go with the ball on a given play, but Brett kept trying to jam it in to Koren.

What really made me mad was the fact that Greg's leap from good young receiver to one of the league's elites happened somewhere between weeks 8-12 of 2007, he became virtually uncoverable at that point, it was really obvious when watching games. How #4 never figured this out I'll never know, he was too concerned with forcing the ball to the Drunk.

IMO Jones "hitting the wall" had a lot more to do with Koren and BF's obsession with him, than it did with any decline in ability.

[sharpe1027]

Jones was out there.

In fact it was a major criticism of mine that season. About the same time the Drunk returned and Favre kept getting him involved despite his struggles getting open and catching it. Koren worked his way into the regular receiving lineup IMO based solely on #4's suggestions. He was not playing well, and other guys (like Jones) were often clearly superior places to go with the ball on a given play, but Brett kept trying to jam it in to Koren.

What really made me mad was the fact that Greg's leap from good young receiver to one of the league's elites happened somewhere between weeks 8-12 of 2007, he became virtually uncoverable at that point, it was really obvious when watching games. How #4 never figured this out I'll never know, he was too concerned with forcing the ball to the Drunk.

IMO Jones "hitting the wall" had a lot more to do with Koren and BF's obsession with him, than it did with any decline in ability.

Even if he was out there, he didn't get the ball, making it difficult to evaluate him. Thus, injuries and xyz have not allowed him to put it all together.

You can hypothesize about why he didn't get the ball, but your anlaysis of Koren seems to be limited to your memory of about 5 plays that Favre tried to force the ball to him. A wise poster once suggested that we often remember select plays and wrongly base our opinions on that, weird as that might sound. :wink:

[Fritz]

I find Waldo's thesis regarding the way people evaluate players to be most fascinating. It's really getting into the realm of memory research - how the brain collects and stores information and makes evaluations based upon those impressions it keeps.

This is true in many facets of life. A person can tell you a hundred and ten things that are positive about you - you're smart, you're funny, you're attractive - but if that person once tells you your hair is bad, you're likely to remember that person as being critical of you.

My own impression of Jones is very favorable, despite wondering what the hell TT was doing when he drafted this no-name wide receiver. That impression comes in part from a memory of a play he made - was it against Denver in 07? - in which he made a catch and split defenders then cut back all the way to the end zone. He kinda zig-zagged his way in. I also remember him getting squashed between receivers and having his helmet knocked off, but getting to the end zone any way. That may have been the preseason, I don't know.

But the point is, Waldo is probably correct in terms of how people's impressions are made. But as those impressions change, so does the interpretation. See Favre, Brett.

[Waldo]

You can hypothesize about why he didn't get the ball, but your anlaysis of Koren seems to be limited to your memory of about 5 plays that Favre tried to force the ball to him.

He played 8 games (technically 9, but his first game back he was on the field for 1 offensive play). In that time he was targeted 34 times, which would be about 70 targets over a normal season, an average of more than 4 per game. Over that span, after Greg and Don he was clearly the #3 WR, and pushing Greg for #2 in amount of use (Greg had 84 targets in 2007). Jones had 80 targets in 2007 as well, but almost 60 of them were prior to Koren's return, after Koren returned, his targets were slashed. Unfortunately too, Jones was averaging more than 14 YPR, Koren was averaging 11 YPR. Greg was averaging more than 17 YPR.

[Waldo]

My own impression of Jones is very favorable, despite wondering what the hell TT was doing when he drafted this no-name wide receiver. That impression comes in part from a memory of a play he made - was it against Denver in 07? - in which he made a catch and split defenders then cut back all the way to the end zone. He kinda zig-zagged his way in. I also remember him getting squashed between receivers and having his helmet knocked off, but getting to the end zone any way. That may have been the preseason, I don't know.


Jones needs more plays like the bomb past Champ and the safety debilitating, helmet losing play against Cincy, to sweep away those fumbles, then he won't have fumbling problems anymore.

Everybody remembers those 2 very distinct Jones-defining plays.

[Patler]

Don has major holding problems. I believe that he was flagged for it 6 times last year, making him one of the most flagged players on the team, and he was flagged again for holding in PS.

I don't know how many he was flagged for, but he had 3 holding penalties that were accepted last year. There were quite a few players with more accepted penalties than Driver's 5, including the ones you would expect like Colledge, Clifton, Bush and Williams and one you might not expect (because he played little) Tony Moll. Surprisingly, I think Moll lead the team in penalties accepted..

[hoosier]

Jones has fumbling issues. He has lost 2 fumbles in has career, both were within 5 minutes of each other, about week 6 of his rookie year, he hasn't lost a fumble since. He is blamed for losing the game, yet a glance at the play by play shows it had virtually no impact on the game, GB got the ball back after the 2nd one with the score still 0-0.

What the play-by-play doesn't show is that the score would have been 14-0 (or 10-0) GB if he doesn't boot those two. :lol: Not trying to nitpick, in general I agree with your point about memory being selective by nature.

[Patler]

The 5 play theory strikes again.

(People's impressions of most players are based on nothing more really than about 5 plays. It is hard to recall more, almost every attribute that you give to the player from memory can be found in those 5 plays. Those 5 plays can change, new ones added and old ones swept away.)

Bigby gets a lot of stupid penalties because he kicked a football around week 11 of 2007. Never mind looking up how many penalties that Bigby actually has gotten, and what the trend is.

Jones has fumbling issues. He has lost 2 fumbles in has career, both were within 5 minutes of each other, about week 6 of his rookie year, he hasn't lost a fumble since. He is blamed for losing the game, yet a glance at the play by play shows it had virtually no impact on the game, GB got the ball back after the 2nd one with the score still 0-0.

Jones needs more plays like the bomb past Champ and the safety debilitating, helmet losing play against Cincy, to sweep away those fumbles, then he won't have fumbling problems anymore.

The way people recall non statistic based football data is really weird. Instead of remembering minor parts of many plays, people tend to recall fairly vivid details of only a few, and base their evaluations of players almost solely on these few plays.

I have argued the same thing for years regarding Ahman Green's fumbles. Sure, he fumbled more than many backs, but for the number of touches he had, he fumbled no more often that a number of prominent backs who were/are not known as fumblers. The story was that Holmgren traded him because he fumbled too much (3 in 120+ touches in Seattle), so every time he fumbled in GB, the fans and writers would say. "See....he's a fumbler." In reality, he was not an extraordinary fumbler by any means, even if he did fumble more than some who were/are extremely secure with the ball.

I even posted a list one time (here or on JSO) of "touches/fumble" and Green had some very prominent company.

[SnakeLH2006]

Everybody remembers those 2 very distinct Jones-defining plays.

While I am on the Jones bandwagon, as well, I agree to the 5 play theory...but I remember good plays. That Minn. game was one game (a very bad one) but his clutch catches are mainly what I take from Jones.

I remember the fumbles, but when I think of JJ, I think of great hands and big-time 1st down catches.

IMO Jordy's agility is poor (as his top speed is very good, but it takes to long to get there) as well as his inability to shake a tackle.

JJ is much like DD with good hands, good strength, and ability to make plays.

I'm all aboard dropping DD to 3rd at some point, but until Jordy matures (he's way to raw yet) or Jones toughens up (hurt too much)...there's no need to drop DD down the depth chart.

Really, I don't think it will matter, as DD might be gone after this year. After he reworked his contract in 2007, he's getting paid $5.9 million this year, and $7.2 in 2010. It's doubtful TT brings him back at that 2010 payrate unless DD has another 90 catch year. Now that is doubtful at 34 for DD.

WR's get paid for yards and TD's. DD's yards have dwindled recently and he's NEVER been a TD machine. Thus, I believe it's all moot, as DD prob. won't be back in 2010 at 35 years old, unless he reworks a contract for under $5 million or so....

[sharpe1027]

He played 8 games (technically 9, but his first game back he was on the field for 1 offensive play). In that time he was targeted 34 times, which would be about 70 targets over a normal season, an average of more than 4 per game. Over that span, after Greg and Don he was clearly the #3 WR, and pushing Greg for #2 in amount of use (Greg had 84 targets in 2007). Jones had 80 targets in 2007 as well, but almost 60 of them were prior to Koren's return, after Koren returned, his targets were slashed. Unfortunately too, Jones was averaging more than 14 YPR, Koren was averaging 11 YPR. Greg was averaging more than 17 YPR.

Cause and effect logic? Koren returned...Jones had less oppurtunities...therefore Koren was responsible for his drop in production. Yet, you can almost always use this logic. I mean if a player is used less, another player is almost always going to get more balls. So, did Jones lose oppurtunities because of Koren or did Koren gain oppurtunities because the staff and/or Favre lost trust in JJ? IDK, but the stats simply don't answer that question.

The league is full of players that looked good in limited action. Look at Najeh Davenport, for awhile he got some play as a backkup and had very good YPC. Statistically speaking, one could have projected his stats for the season and put him in the probowl. Problem is, it is not that simple.

So regardless of everything you've said, I still say that JJ has yet to put it all together. In particular, I have reservations about whether he can maintain the stats you are using to compare, assuming he were to become a #1 or #2. For instance, I would guess that a primary target for a particular play will get more difficult-to-catch balls (e.g., they would be thrown to even where the coverage is tight) than a player that is the second or third option. Therefore, it would seem natural that, all things being equal, a third option would catch a higher percentage of passes. Other factors are the quality of the coverage on the third WR is often much less. Most team's nickel DB's are not on par with T. Williams.

Yeah, this is all hypothetical, but my point has always been the jury is out on JJ. He has shown flashes, but we'll have to see if he's got more than that.

[MJZiggy]

The 5 play theory strikes again.

(People's impressions of most players are based on nothing more really than about 5 plays. It is hard to recall more, almost every attribute that you give to the player from memory can be found in those 5 plays. Those 5 plays can change, new ones added and old ones swept away.)

Bigby gets a lot of stupid penalties because he kicked a football around week 11 of 2007. Never mind looking up how many penalties that Bigby actually has gotten, and what the trend is.

Jones has fumbling issues. He has lost 2 fumbles in has career, both were within 5 minutes of each other, about week 6 of his rookie year, he hasn't lost a fumble since. He is blamed for losing the game, yet a glance at the play by play shows it had virtually no impact on the game, GB got the ball back after the 2nd one with the score still 0-0.

Jones needs more plays like the bomb past Champ and the safety debilitating, helmet losing play against Cincy, to sweep away those fumbles, then he won't have fumbling problems anymore.

The way people recall non statistic based football data is really weird. Instead of remembering minor parts of many plays, people tend to recall fairly vivid details of only a few, and base their evaluations of players almost solely on these few plays.

I have argued the same thing for years regarding Ahman Green's fumbles. Sure, he fumbled more than many backs, but for the number of touches he had, he fumbled no more often that a number of prominent backs who were/are not known as fumblers. The story was that Holmgren traded him because he fumbled too much (3 in 120+ touches in Seattle), so every time he fumbled in GB, the fans and writers would say. "See....he's a fumbler." In reality, he was not an extraordinary fumbler by any means, even if he did fumble more than some who were/are extremely secure with the ball.

I even posted a list one time (here or on JSO) of "touches/fumble" and Green had some very prominent company.

I remember that. It's here somewhere. I think Green's "fumbleitis" was "cured" when they got him new pads or took them off or something and then you didn't hear about it as much.

[Freak Out]

The 5 play theory strikes again.

(People's impressions of most players are based on nothing more really than about 5 plays. It is hard to recall more, almost every attribute that you give to the player from memory can be found in those 5 plays. Those 5 plays can change, new ones added and old ones swept away.)

Bigby gets a lot of stupid penalties because he kicked a football around week 11 of 2007. Never mind looking up how many penalties that Bigby actually has gotten, and what the trend is.

Jones has fumbling issues. He has lost 2 fumbles in has career, both were within 5 minutes of each other, about week 6 of his rookie year, he hasn't lost a fumble since. He is blamed for losing the game, yet a glance at the play by play shows it had virtually no impact on the game, GB got the ball back after the 2nd one with the score still 0-0.

Jones needs more plays like the bomb past Champ and the safety debilitating, helmet losing play against Cincy, to sweep away those fumbles, then he won't have fumbling problems anymore.

The way people recall non statistic based football data is really weird. Instead of remembering minor parts of many plays, people tend to recall fairly vivid details of only a few, and base their evaluations of players almost solely on these few plays.

I have argued the same thing for years regarding Ahman Green's fumbles. Sure, he fumbled more than many backs, but for the number of touches he had, he fumbled no more often that a number of prominent backs who were/are not known as fumblers. The story was that Holmgren traded him because he fumbled too much (3 in 120+ touches in Seattle), so every time he fumbled in GB, the fans and writers would say. "See....he's a fumbler." In reality, he was not an extraordinary fumbler by any means, even if he did fumble more than some who were/are extremely secure with the ball.

I even posted a list one time (here or on JSO) of "touches/fumble" and Green had some very prominent company.

I remember that. It's here somewhere. I think Green's "fumbleitis" was "cured" when they got him new pads or took them off or something and then you didn't hear about it as much.

He used to wear those black neoprene looking forearm things and when they were wet he would fumble more....allegedly.

[retailguy]

He used to wear those black neoprene looking forearm things and when they were wet he would fumble more....allegedly.

I've always thought that it was the fact that he always carried the ball in his left arm. Most RB's switch arms based on where the hit/pressure comes from. I always believed it led to an opportunity to dislodge the ball that didn't happen as often with most other RB's.

[pbmax]

He used to wear those black neoprene looking forearm things and when they were wet he would fumble more....allegedly.

I've always thought that it was the fact that he always carried the ball in his left arm. Most RB's switch arms based on where the hit/pressure comes from. I always believed it led to an opportunity to dislodge the ball that didn't happen as often with most other RB's.
The neoprene vs. standard white pads were the second explanation offered by Sherman regarding how they were going to deal with the fumbles. Sherm felt he sweat too much for neoprene to be effective. I would hate to be the guy measuring that test.

Football Outsiders has 2009 Jennings at a catch rate of 75% and Driver at 57%. Jones not listed, not enough catches to make the list.

2008: GJ 57%, DD 64%, JN 61%, Jones 67%

2007: Jennings 63%, 67%, Jones 59%, RM 57%, KR 62%

2006: DD 53%, GJ 43%, RM 49%, KR 44%, RF 38%

These are all catch rates. The play by play does not count drops. I can't believe Driver had no drops last year, as we dropped passes in every game I can remember. but someone is going to have to comb through McGinn's season ending wrapup to find his numbers for drops.

[Waldo]

He used to wear those black neoprene looking forearm things and when they were wet he would fumble more....allegedly.

I've always thought that it was the fact that he always carried the ball in his left arm. Most RB's switch arms based on where the hit/pressure comes from. I always believed it led to an opportunity to dislodge the ball that didn't happen as often with most other RB's.
The neoprene vs. standard white pads were the second explanation offered by Sherman regarding how they were going to deal with the fumbles. Sherm felt he sweat too much for neoprene to be effective. I would hate to be the guy measuring that test.

Football Outsiders has 2009 Jennings at a catch rate of 75% and Driver at 57%. Jones not listed, not enough catches to make the list.

2008: GJ 57%, DD 64%, JN 61%, Jones 67%

2007: Jennings 63%, 67%, Jones 59%, RM 57%, KR 62%

2006: DD 53%, GJ 43%, RM 49%, KR 44%, RF 38%

These are all catch rates. The play by play does not count drops. I can't believe Driver had no drops last year, as we dropped passes in every game I can remember. but someone is going to have to comb through McGinn's season ending wrapup to find his numbers for drops.

2009 #'s probably aren't a very good guide. Jones and Jordy haven't yet caught any passes.

Anyway, I got McGinn's analysis bookmarked:


Donald Driver dropped seven of 113 (6.2%)

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/36986949.html

LIS though, there is a fundamental problem with the drop stat. It is a judgement call as to what is and isn't catchable, and it fails to take into account that some WR's are better than others at getting their hands to touch the ball, and there is a fairly significant difference. (for example, Chi's WR's, they don't get drops for the times the stopped on a route, but that still affects their catch %).

[HarveyWallbangers]

for anyone questioning DD's hands I have one thing to say:

ZERO: The number of dropped passes by DD in 2008!

64.3 - The % of targeted passes Don caught in 2008.

69.0 - The % of targeted passes Jones caught in 2008.

And if you are want to argue that Jones caught more dumpoffs and Don caught tougher passes, each one averaged 13.7 YPR last year. Each pass on average gained the same number of yards between the two players.

Each CATCH averaged the same gain. We don't know how far down the field each incompletion was. Also, Jones didn't get a lot of balls thrown his way because he wasn't healthy. Small sample size. Going by your stats, you are stating that an injured Jones was better than a healthy Driver last year.
:crazy:

The stats also don't tell you who covered each respective receiver. Driver got his stats going against a team's #1 or #2 corner and with occasional double teams. Jones got his stats mostly going against a team's #3 or #4 corner (nickelback or dimeback) and with little help.

The other thing that the % of targeted passes caught doesn't show (besides who was covering him and what type of coverage he had) is the % of times a receiver didn't get open enough for the QB to target him. You can use stats however you want, but you also have to evaluate the player.

[Waldo]

The other thing that the % of targeted passes caught doesn't show (besides who was covering him and what type of coverage he had) is the % of times a receiver didn't get open enough for the QB to target him. You can use stats however you want, but you also have to evaluate the player.

But you also have to be aware of how unobjective the evaluation of a popular player is by virtually all fans.

Stats can do a good job to help maintain objectivity when evaluating, pointing out characteristics to pay attention to.

[bobblehead]

for anyone questioning DD's hands I have one thing to say:

ZERO: The number of dropped passes by DD in 2008!

64.3 - The % of targeted passes Don caught in 2008.

69.0 - The % of targeted passes Jones caught in 2008.

And if you are want to argue that Jones caught more dumpoffs and Don caught tougher passes, each one averaged 13.7 YPR last year. Each pass on average gained the same number of yards between the two players.

I'm not knocking JJ...as a matter of fact I was making a comment regarding dropped passes=ZERO. I love JJ, have said so many times. Openly said he is a better reciever than Jordy. % of targeted passes caught can be affected by many things besides the recievers ability, but I think you know this already. I'm not declariing JJ or DD a better reciever at this point, but simply saying DD's hands can't be argued as he dropped ZERO passes in '08.

[bobblehead]

The way people recall non statistic based football data is really weird. Instead of remembering minor parts of many plays, people tend to recall fairly vivid details of only a few, and base their evaluations of players almost solely on these few plays.

For example, I remember Reggie White as a Left DE for the time he launched Cris Carter about 8 yards upfield with one arm.

[pbmax]

The other thing that the % of targeted passes caught doesn't show (besides who was covering him and what type of coverage he had) ....
If I was the coach, I am not sure I would care about who was in coverage or what coverage was being played. To evaluate the player in a game setting, they will need to battle both elements and win their share, whether they are the No. 1 receiver or No. 3.

Absent specifics matchups coaches like or want to avoid, the offense has far less control over the coverage than anything else it does.

[bobblehead]

He used to wear those black neoprene looking forearm things and when they were wet he would fumble more....allegedly.

I've always thought that it was the fact that he always carried the ball in his left arm. Most RB's switch arms based on where the hit/pressure comes from. I always believed it led to an opportunity to dislodge the ball that didn't happen as often with most other RB's.
The neoprene vs. standard white pads were the second explanation offered by Sherman regarding how they were going to deal with the fumbles. Sherm felt he sweat too much for neoprene to be effective. I would hate to be the guy measuring that test.

Football Outsiders has 2009 Jennings at a catch rate of 75% and Driver at 57%. Jones not listed, not enough catches to make the list.

2008: GJ 57%, DD 64%, JN 61%, Jones 67%

2007: Jennings 63%, 67%, Jones 59%, RM 57%, KR 62%

2006: DD 53%, GJ 43%, RM 49%, KR 44%, RF 38%

These are all catch rates. The play by play does not count drops. I can't believe Driver had no drops last year, as we dropped passes in every game I can remember. but someone is going to have to comb through McGinn's season ending wrapup to find his numbers for drops.

2009 #'s probably aren't a very good guide. Jones and Jordy haven't yet caught any passes.

Anyway, I got McGinn's analysis bookmarked:


Donald Driver dropped seven of 113 (6.2%)

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/36986949.html

LIS though, there is a fundamental problem with the drop stat. It is a judgement call as to what is and isn't catchable, and it fails to take into account that some WR's are better than others at getting their hands to touch the ball, and there is a fairly significant difference. (for example, Chi's WR's, they don't get drops for the times the stopped on a route, but that still affects their catch %).

Dang, wish I had bookmarked the JS article I read that quoted zero for DD, but I believe in McGinn and will humbly stand corrected. I read that article the same day I posted the zero drops too.

[Waldo]

The other thing that the % of targeted passes caught doesn't show (besides who was covering him and what type of coverage he had) ....
If I was the coach, I am not sure I would care about who was in coverage or what coverage was being played. To evaluate the player in a game setting, they will need to battle both elements and win their share, whether they are the No. 1 receiver or No. 3.

Absent specifics matchups coaches like or want to avoid, the offense has far less control over the coverage than anything else it does.

Not to mention,

Packer fans in many respects still see football, defense especially though a Bob Sanders lens.

It isn't normal for a CB to cover a single WR all game. Most OC's are always looking for the defensive keys that will isolate their top WR's on a S, TE on a LB deep, etc...

Sure a guy may see better coverage most of the game, but the bulk of the passes most WR's get is when they are in favorable matchups or have clearly beaten their coverage.

In other words, items like catch %, YPR, and TD% are not overly affected by coverage.

A Vikings fan elsewhere has done a similar study of Brett's WR's in Mn, NY, and Chad's in Miami and we compared notes (I have GB WR data); contrary to popular belief, there is no evidence that the QB has much, if any, impact on catch %, YPR, or TD%. Those items seem to follow the WR's and are not greatly influenced by the passer.

[MOBB DEEP]

LOVE this cat

[GrnBay007]

LOVE this cat

:tup:

Nothing there NOT to love!! :P

[MOBB DEEP]

at least HE came to play! :evil:

[GrnBay007]

at least HE came to play! :evil:

He and Woodson.

[MOBB DEEP]

the man

[MOBB DEEP]

at least HE came to play! :evil:

He and Woodson.

Mos Def

[Gunakor]

Donald Driver is now just 9 catches away from setting the all time Packers receptions mark.

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/61595322.html

Probably won't happen in St. Louis, but rather in Minnesota next week. Which is appropriate, since 99% of those receptions came off the arm of one Brett Favre. And the poor Vikings fans will once again see another Packer all-time record breaking celebration @ The Dump. How cool is that?!

[woodbuck27]

LOVE this cat

:tup:

Nothing there NOT to love!! :P

Wow! DD gets 'diced and sliced' @ Packerrats.

http://www.packers.com/news/stories/2009/09/24/1/

[Tony Oday]

Donald Driver is now just 9 catches away from setting the all time Packers receptions mark.

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/61595322.html

Probably won't happen in St. Louis, but rather in Minnesota next week. Which is appropriate, since 99% of those receptions came off the arm of one Brett Favre. And the poor Vikings fans will once again see another Packer all-time record breaking celebration @ The Dump. How cool is that?!

I say just toss DD on Defense and Favre can throw him his all time packer reception breaker ;)