Fosco's Rankings - Wk7

[Fosco33]

Hey Rats-

Thanks for the feedback and ideas. Some things to note:

- I've added some additional predictive elements and updated the overall formula

-Point Differential = Pts Scored minus Pts Allowed

-Yards/Att Differential = Offensive passing yards gained/attempt minus Defensive passing yards allowed/attempt

- I've removed Time of Possession as it was only a minor part of my overall formula applied to these stats

- I'm now posting on a different site so the image will be clearer and compacted into one image. I apologize in advance if it's slow to load - and can try some other techniques to ensure the Admin is cool with this stuff...

- I'll post a second picture just looking at the Tuesday Vegas lines vs. the differential in team's summary rankings (adjusting certain teams that have a positive home winning percentage).

I did 'ok' last week - for some reason chose the Raiders at the last minute (doh) and had issues with the 14 points the Vikes allowed on 4th Q turnovers...

Good luck all-

http://www.freeimagehosting.net/uploads/d4824b858b.jpg (http://www.freeimagehosting.net/)

[Fosco33]

And here are the Picks.

Some explanations:
Vegas Spread = Tuesday line rounded up (can you really win by 1.5? - ha)

Home Field Advantage Adjustment = I took the current home team winning percentage and gave perfect teams a 2 point reduction, next tier 1.5, even at home 1 and losers nothing. I could also reduce all home teams 2 points...

HFA Adjusted Ranks = I take the calculated stat ranking less the adjustment for home field (if possible) - example, Bears are perfect at home so they get a 2 point reduction (from 19.3 to 17.3).

Stat Differential Spread, Rounded = I take the home team's ranking and subtract the away teams ranking and round it. - example, Bears would be 11.4 (or 11) point favorites this week vs. the Browns.

Pick vs. Spread = I compare the Vegas line to my spread and chose the benefactor, example - I think the Bears will win by 11 but they have to cover 14 points - so degrudgingly pick the Browns (ehh, we'll see).

Spread vs. Spread (Confidence) = I compare the spreads, example - Vegas spread for Bears (-14) vs. mine (-11) = 3 points for Browns

Pick Rank = Based on the variance in the spreads, I'll give you a clue at how confident I'm in that pick. example, I chose the Browns with the 3 point difference as the 5th best pick (of 13 games).

http://www.freeimagehosting.net/uploads/070a010c4d.jpg (http://www.freeimagehosting.net/)

[Fosco33]

What a terrible week to pick against Vegas. A ton of home teams and not many favorable lines... and even the ones that show favorable are questionable. I'd be ok with the following

Jags should win by 6 but Titans are favored by 4.
Broncos should win by 5 but Ravens are favored by 4.
Packers should win by 7 and are favored by 4 (the damn Favre #4 factor).
Jets should apparently win by 7 (vs. 4).
Carolina should lose by 7 (not 10).

I don't like these despite the system...
Raiders should lose by less than 17 - but they won't (don't listen to the system here... the Raiders are really, really bad).
Browns losing by 14 is realistic...

The rest of the games are almost a coin flip (1-2 points vs. vegas spread)...