Smidgeon
11-14-2009, 09:59 PM
I ran some QB stats (raw data courtesy of NFL.com's stat splits) from the first half of the season. And yes, we all know that statistics can be slanted by only reporting certain ones. I'll do my best to cover both the good and the bad of Aaron Rodgers. For the sake of comparison, I took out the QBs that had an overall rating less than 70 or started few games.
League Rating Leader:
During first 10 passes
On 3rd down
2nd or 3rd and 0-7
When ahead by 9-16
When throwing along the right sideline
When on own 21-50
With 2 TE
Against the blitz
< 4 on Dline
6 on Dline
Top 5 QB Rating:
Overall Rating
Away Game Rating
In Wins
In Losses
When the game was decided by less than 7 points
When the game was decided by over 15 points
In the 1st half
In the 1st Quarter
On 2nd down
1st and 0-7
2nd and 8-10
When behind
When tied
When throwing along the left sideline
When the pass is in the air less than 10 yards but past the line of scrimmage
When in opponent's territory from 49-1
With 2 WR
With 0 TE
Without motion
Bottom 3 QB Rating:
On 1st down
1st and 10
3rd and long
4th and longer than 6
Ahead by less than 9
On own 1-20
5 on Dline
Worst QB Rating:
On 4th down
4th and greater than 10
Notable sacks statistics:
15 on 1st down
0 on 4th down
11 when playing with the lead
13 on own 21-50
21 out of shotgun
19 with lone setback
17 with 3 WRs
11 against the blitz
34 with 4 on Dline
So what does this tell us?
*Counterintuitively, AR's rating doesn't drop more than any other QBs in losses. He has the 2nd best rating in wins, and the 3rd best in losses.
*It isn't the blitz that is killing AR. It's the 4 line rush. He has the #1 rating against the blitz.
*AR excels at short throws. Excels. QB Rating of 109.1, good for 2nd in the NFL, and 6 TDs when the ball travels less than 10 yards.
*During his first 10 throws of each game, he's thrown 8 of his 16 TDs. So he starts every game hot, then trails off. Also of note: the second best QB rating for the first 10 throws is 18.8 points less.
*AR excels on 3rd downs: rating of 135 and 8 TDs to 0 INTs and less than a third of his sacks
*When playing from behind: rating of 113.1, 8 TDs, 1 INT. Of course, he also has 17 sacks playing from behind
*13 of his 16 TDs have been thrown along the left or right sideline.
*It appears that GB's best set is 2 TEs. 65.7% accuracy, 13.14 YPA, 8 TDs, 1 INT, 4 sacks
*Where AR really dominates and is better than any other QB is 2nd or 3rd and 3-7. He's 40 points better than the 2nd best QB in that range. In the league! He's also #1 in 2nd and 3rd and 0-2. He's only a long reception short of having a perfect QB rating in all of those categories.
*With a big lead, AR is better than any other QB by almost 20 points
*With a small lead, AR has one of the worst QB ratings in the league
*He has one of the worst ratings on 1st down. 14 of his sacks came on 1st and 10. I don't know what conclusions you can draw, but they aren't good.
*His QB rating on 4th down is 0.0. He's 1 for 5 for 4 yards and 1 INT.
*He has a low rating and poor stats when backed against his own endzone. 55%, 2 INTs, etc
If I had to tell a story based on this information, I'd say the following:
Aaron Rodgers is a big play QB who is gifted at starting hot and striking big. When he has to pull out long drives, he tends to stall. Given time and not significant pressure, he can deliver. But put him on 4th down or put him against his endzone, and he'll get skittish.
League Rating Leader:
During first 10 passes
On 3rd down
2nd or 3rd and 0-7
When ahead by 9-16
When throwing along the right sideline
When on own 21-50
With 2 TE
Against the blitz
< 4 on Dline
6 on Dline
Top 5 QB Rating:
Overall Rating
Away Game Rating
In Wins
In Losses
When the game was decided by less than 7 points
When the game was decided by over 15 points
In the 1st half
In the 1st Quarter
On 2nd down
1st and 0-7
2nd and 8-10
When behind
When tied
When throwing along the left sideline
When the pass is in the air less than 10 yards but past the line of scrimmage
When in opponent's territory from 49-1
With 2 WR
With 0 TE
Without motion
Bottom 3 QB Rating:
On 1st down
1st and 10
3rd and long
4th and longer than 6
Ahead by less than 9
On own 1-20
5 on Dline
Worst QB Rating:
On 4th down
4th and greater than 10
Notable sacks statistics:
15 on 1st down
0 on 4th down
11 when playing with the lead
13 on own 21-50
21 out of shotgun
19 with lone setback
17 with 3 WRs
11 against the blitz
34 with 4 on Dline
So what does this tell us?
*Counterintuitively, AR's rating doesn't drop more than any other QBs in losses. He has the 2nd best rating in wins, and the 3rd best in losses.
*It isn't the blitz that is killing AR. It's the 4 line rush. He has the #1 rating against the blitz.
*AR excels at short throws. Excels. QB Rating of 109.1, good for 2nd in the NFL, and 6 TDs when the ball travels less than 10 yards.
*During his first 10 throws of each game, he's thrown 8 of his 16 TDs. So he starts every game hot, then trails off. Also of note: the second best QB rating for the first 10 throws is 18.8 points less.
*AR excels on 3rd downs: rating of 135 and 8 TDs to 0 INTs and less than a third of his sacks
*When playing from behind: rating of 113.1, 8 TDs, 1 INT. Of course, he also has 17 sacks playing from behind
*13 of his 16 TDs have been thrown along the left or right sideline.
*It appears that GB's best set is 2 TEs. 65.7% accuracy, 13.14 YPA, 8 TDs, 1 INT, 4 sacks
*Where AR really dominates and is better than any other QB is 2nd or 3rd and 3-7. He's 40 points better than the 2nd best QB in that range. In the league! He's also #1 in 2nd and 3rd and 0-2. He's only a long reception short of having a perfect QB rating in all of those categories.
*With a big lead, AR is better than any other QB by almost 20 points
*With a small lead, AR has one of the worst QB ratings in the league
*He has one of the worst ratings on 1st down. 14 of his sacks came on 1st and 10. I don't know what conclusions you can draw, but they aren't good.
*His QB rating on 4th down is 0.0. He's 1 for 5 for 4 yards and 1 INT.
*He has a low rating and poor stats when backed against his own endzone. 55%, 2 INTs, etc
If I had to tell a story based on this information, I'd say the following:
Aaron Rodgers is a big play QB who is gifted at starting hot and striking big. When he has to pull out long drives, he tends to stall. Given time and not significant pressure, he can deliver. But put him on 4th down or put him against his endzone, and he'll get skittish.