Playoff Positioning Week 12

[CaliforniaCheez]

Week 12

NFC

1st round bye
1) Saints Record (10-0) > (10-1) vikings
2) vikings Record (10-1) > (8-3) Cowboys

Division Leaders
3) Cowboys Record (8-3) > (7-4) Cardinals
4) Cardinals Record (7-4) > (5-6) 49'ers

Wild Cards
5) Eagles Conference Record (6-2) > (6-3) Packers
6) Packers Record (7-4) > (6-5) Giants *

The Rest in Order:
7) Giants Conference Record (4-3, .571) > (5-4, .556) Falcons
8) Falcons Record (6-5) > (5-6) 49'ers
9) 49'ers Conference Record (4-3) > (4-4) Panthers
10) Panthers Conference Record (4-4) > (3-6) Seahawks (2-6) Bears
11) Bears Head to head win over Seahawks
12) Seahawks Conference record (3-6) > (2-7) Redskins
13) Redskins Record (3-8) > (2-9) Lions
14) Lions Record (2-9) > (1-10) Bucanneers
15) Bucanneers Conference Record (1-7) > (1-8) Rams
16) Rams


AFC

1st round bye
1) Colts Record (11-0) > (8-3) Bengals
2) Chargers Strength of Schedule .463 > .429 Bengals (Very close)

Division Leaders
3) Bengals Record (8-3) > (7-4) Patriots
4) Patriots As a division winner they get to be ahead of Broncos

Wild Cards
5) Broncos Record (7-4) > (6-5) Jaguars
6) Jaguars Conference Record (5-2) > (6-4)

The Rest in Order:
7) Ravens Head to head win over Steelers
8) Steelers Record (6-5) > (5-6) Jets
9) Jets Head to Head win over Texans
10) Texans Conference Record (4-5) > (3-4) Dolphins
11) Dolphins Conference Record (3-4) > (3-6) Titans
12) Titans Record (5-6) > (4-7) Bills
13) Bills Record (4-7) > (3-8) Chiefs
14) Chiefs Conference Record (2-5) > (2-6) Raiders
15) Raiders Record (3-8) > (1-10) Browns
16) Browns


Top of the draft order:

1) Browns
2) Bucanneers
3) Rams
4) Lions
5) Chiefs
6) Redskins
7) Raiders
8) Bills
9) Seahawks
10) Bears (coin flip)
11) Panthers (coin flip)
12) Jets
13) Dolphins (coin flip)
14) 49'ers (coin flip)
15) Titans
16) Texans
17) Falcons
18) Giants
19) Steelers
20) Ravens

Note the graphic put up at NFL.com changed with the Patriots loss. It caused the Chargers to move ahead of the Bengals in a very close race.

Big games this week besides Ravens at Lambeau are:

Giants at Cowboys
Eagles at Falcons
Texans at Jaguars

[Lurker64]

Aren't the Packers in the #6 spot because their 7-4 record is better than the Giants 6-5 record?

[CaliforniaCheez]

Yes

[KYPack]

We are all reading the thread now, Cheez.

Good stuff.

[Cheesehead Craig]

Where do the Saints beat MN to be the top seed? The first tie breaker is hth, then conf record, W-L in common games, Str of victory then str of sched.

Just wondering where NO gets the nod for the #1

[KYPack]

Where do the Saints beat MN to be the top seed? The first tie breaker is hth, then conf record, W-L in common games, Str of victory then str of sched.

Just wondering where NO gets the nod for the #1

Saints haven't lost a game. 11-0 trumps 10-1

[Cheesehead Craig]

Where do the Saints beat MN to be the top seed? The first tie breaker is hth, then conf record, W-L in common games, Str of victory then str of sched.

Just wondering where NO gets the nod for the #1

Saints haven't lost a game. 11-0 trumps 10-1

Or, I could have been overthinking things. LOL! Thanks Col.

[MichiganPackerFan]

At the end of the season, i certainly wouldn't mind seeing a chart that showed how things progressed each week.

[mngolf19]

Where do the Saints beat MN to be the top seed? The first tie breaker is hth, then conf record, W-L in common games, Str of victory then str of sched.

Just wondering where NO gets the nod for the #1

Saints haven't lost a game. 11-0 trumps 10-1

Or, I could have been overthinking things. LOL! Thanks Col.

And I think Chilly has started tweeking his play starting this last week to try and get some of the tiebreakers in his favor if N.O. would lose a game.

[CaliforniaCheez]

At the end of the season, i certainly wouldn't mind seeing a chart that showed how things progressed each week.

Here is a summary of where the Packers were placed each week in the NFC

Bear game 3rd Behind the Saints and ahead of the Giants

Bengal game 6th Behind the Falcons and ahead of the Seahawks

Rams game 5th, Behind the 49'ers and ahead of the Falcons

1st Vikings 8th Behind the Eagles and ahead of the Cowboys

Bye week 9th Behind the Cowboys and ahead of the Cardinals

1st Lions 6th Behind the Falcons and ahead of the Eagles

Browns game 6th Behind the Falcons and ahead of the Eagles

2nd Viking 8th Behind Falcons and ahead of the Bears

Buccaneers game 8th Behind the Giants and ahead of the Bears

Cowboys game 7th Behind the Falcons and ahead of the Giants

49'ers game 6th Behind the Eagles and ahead of the Giants

2nd Lions 6h Behind the Eagles and ahead of the Giants


So far the Packers have ranged from 3rd to 9th.
7 of 11 weeks they have been in playoff position.

[MichiganPackerFan]

At the end of the season, i certainly wouldn't mind seeing a chart that showed how things progressed each week.

Here is a summary of where the Packers were placed each week in the NFC
.
.
.
So far the Packers have ranged from 3rd to 9th.
7 of 11 weeks they have been in playoff position.

Thanks! What I am truly interested in seeing is whether the teams who peak late truly have the most success and if this years statistics ultimately support that.

[CaliforniaCheez]

Look at how Arizona climbed over the course of the season. At one time they were 13th in the NFC. The Seahawks were 1st week one and have been descending since.


Look at the playoff race. No, MN, and AZ are unlikely to change much.

The real key is Conference record and then how the head to head matchups in the NFC East play out.

The Eagles and the Cowboys have on 2 Conference losses with 4 Conference games left. Range could be 10-2 to 6-6. PHI - @Atl,@NYG,SF,@Dal. DAL- @NYG,@NO,@Was,PHI
The Eagles can split their games and have 8 NFC wins. Dallas will be lucky to split for 8 NFC wins.

The Packers have 3 Conference losses with 3 Conference games left (Chi, Sea, AZ). Range 9-3 to 6-6. AZ could be resting players in the final week. The Packers have the easiest Conference games likely 8-9 NFC wins, but play the Ravens and Steelers too.

The Giants have 3 Conference losses with 5 Conference games remaining. Dal,Phi,@was,CAR,@MN. They should have 7 to 9 NFC wins

The Falcons have 4 Conference losses with 3 Conference games remaining. PHI, NO, @TB
A loss to the Saints may knock them out. A loss to the Eagles will almost surely knock them out. The Falcons must beat the Eagles.


Bottom line there are 5 teams looking for 3 playoff spots. 1st in the East is in, the 3rd place team in the NFC East likely out. That leaves 3 teams (the Packers, Falcons, and 2nd place team in the East) competing for 2 spots.

[BallHawk]

Should we be rooting for a specific team to take the East?

[CaliforniaCheez]

Should we be rooting for a specific team to take the East?

Good question. Anyone but the Cowboys. Cheer for Giants to beat the Cowboys and Eagles to beat the Falcons this week.

The Packers want the Cowboys to be a wild card since the Packers have the head to head tiebreaker.

Assuming a Packer win of course:

1) If the Giants beat the Cowboys and Eagles beat the Falcons, the Eagles then lead the East. The Packers move ahead of the Cowboys for #1 wild card and the Cowboys are #2 wild card behind the Packers. It is also a kiss of death for Atlanta's playoff chances. This may be the best scenario long term.

2) If the Cowboys win and the Eagles win the Packers are more firmly entrenched at #2 Wild Card because the Giants and Falcons behind them are further behind. This is the safest scenario but the Packers are destined for #2 wild card. It gives them more room to lose.

3) If the Cowboys win and the Falcons win, the Packers become the #1 seed but they are still in a tight battle with the Eagles and Falcons.

4) A Giants win against the Cowboys and a Falcons win over the Eagles puts the Packers in the #1 Wild Card but the teams behind are much closer to them. This is almost the worst case scenario.

The worst thing is a Packer loss.

[Cheesehead Craig]

Time for the Al Davis mantra

"Where am I?"

sorry I mean

"Just win, baby"

[BallHawk]

Should we be rooting for a specific team to take the East?

Good question. Anyone but the Cowboys. Cheer for Giants to beat the Cowboys and Eagles to beat the Falcons this week.

The Packers want the Cowboys to be a wild card since the Packers have the head to head tiebreaker.

Assuming a Packer win of course:

1) If the Giants beat the Cowboys and Eagles beat the Falcons, the Eagles then lead the East. The Packers move ahead of the Cowboys for #1 wild card and the Cowboys are #2 wild card behind the Packers. It is also a kiss of death for Atlanta's playoff chances. This may be the best scenario long term.

2) If the Cowboys win and the Eagles win the Packers are more firmly entrenched at #2 Wild Card because the Giants and Falcons behind them are further behind. This is the safest scenario but the Packers are destined for #2 wild card. It gives them more room to lose.

3) If the Cowboys win and the Falcons win, the Packers become the #1 seed but they are still in a tight battle with the Eagles and Falcons.

4) A Giants win against the Cowboys and a Falcons win over the Eagles puts the Packers in the #1 Wild Card but the teams behind are much closer to them. This is almost the worst case scenario.

The worst thing is a Packer loss.

Great analysis, Cheez. Thanks for doing this. Very insightful.

[Packgator]

It's possible the Packers could play at Arizona two weeks in a row. Final reg. season game and then the first week of the playoffs.

[woodbuck27]

Should we be rooting for a specific team to take the East?

Good question. Anyone but the Cowboys. Cheer for Giants to beat the Cowboys and Eagles to beat the Falcons this week.

The Packers want the Cowboys to be a wild card since the Packers have the head to head tiebreaker.

Assuming a Packer win of course:

1) If the Giants beat the Cowboys and Eagles beat the Falcons, the Eagles then lead the East. The Packers move ahead of the Cowboys for #1 wild card and the Cowboys are #2 wild card behind the Packers. It is also a kiss of death for Atlanta's playoff chances. This may be the best scenario long term.

2) If the Cowboys win and the Eagles win the Packers are more firmly entrenched at #2 Wild Card because the Giants and Falcons behind them are further behind. This is the safest scenario but the Packers are destined for #2 wild card. It gives them more room to lose.

3) If the Cowboys win and the Falcons win, the Packers become the #1 seed but they are still in a tight battle with the Eagles and Falcons.

4) A Giants win against the Cowboys and a Falcons win over the Eagles puts the Packers in the #1 Wild Card but the teams behind are much closer to them. This is almost the worst case scenario.

The worst thing is a Packer loss.

Nice work CaliforniaCheez. So this weekend we hope for Giants at home over the Cowboys. Eagles on the road over the Falcons. Then ' of course ' the Packers over the Ravens in Lambeau.

GO PACK GO!

[CaliforniaCheez]

Should we be rooting for a specific team to take the East?

Good question. Anyone but the Cowboys. Cheer for Giants to beat the Cowboys and Eagles to beat the Falcons this week.

The Packers want the Cowboys to be a wild card since the Packers have the head to head tiebreaker.

Assuming a Packer win of course:

1) If the Giants beat the Cowboys and Eagles beat the Falcons, the Eagles then lead the East. The Packers move ahead of the Cowboys for #1 wild card and the Cowboys are #2 wild card behind the Packers. It is also a kiss of death for Atlanta's playoff chances. This may be the best scenario long term.

2) If the Cowboys win and the Eagles win the Packers are more firmly entrenched at #2 Wild Card because the Giants and Falcons behind them are further behind. This is the safest scenario but the Packers are destined for #2 wild card. It gives them more room to lose.

3) If the Cowboys win and the Falcons win, the Packers become the #1 seed but they are still in a tight battle with the Eagles and Falcons.

4) A Giants win against the Cowboys and a Falcons win over the Eagles puts the Packers in the #1 Wild Card but the teams behind are much closer to them. This is almost the worst case scenario.

The worst thing is a Packer loss.

Nice work CaliforniaCheez. So this weekend we hope for Giants at home over the Cowboys. Eagles on the road over the Falcons. Then ' of course ' the Packers over the Ravens in Lambeau.

GO PACK GO!


If all goes well the Eagles will beat the Giants next week. If that happens the Packers will be in very good shape.

[pbmax]

Should we be rooting for a specific team to take the East?

Good question. Anyone but the Cowboys. Cheer for Giants to beat the Cowboys and Eagles to beat the Falcons this week.

The Packers want the Cowboys to be a wild card since the Packers have the head to head tiebreaker.

Assuming a Packer win of course:

1) If the Giants beat the Cowboys and Eagles beat the Falcons, the Eagles then lead the East. The Packers move ahead of the Cowboys for #1 wild card and the Cowboys are #2 wild card behind the Packers. It is also a kiss of death for Atlanta's playoff chances. This may be the best scenario long term.

2) If the Cowboys win and the Eagles win the Packers are more firmly entrenched at #2 Wild Card because the Giants and Falcons behind them are further behind. This is the safest scenario but the Packers are destined for #2 wild card. It gives them more room to lose.

3) If the Cowboys win and the Falcons win, the Packers become the #1 seed but they are still in a tight battle with the Eagles and Falcons.

4) A Giants win against the Cowboys and a Falcons win over the Eagles puts the Packers in the #1 Wild Card but the teams behind are much closer to them. This is almost the worst case scenario.

The worst thing is a Packer loss.
So, number one scenario rolled out quite nicely today, if I am reading this correctly.

[pbmax]

Cheeze, the GBPG Pelissero has a different order for the Packers playoff spot after tonight:


If Dallas had beaten the New York Giants on Sunday afternoon, the Packers would have had a chance to open a two-game lead in the NFC wild-card race by beating the Baltimore Ravens tonight.

Instead, the Giants won 31-24 to improve to 7-5, a half-game behind the Packers (7-4) and a full game behind Philadelphia (8-4), which now is tied atop the NFC East Division with Dallas.

Based on tiebreakers, the Packers will exit the weekend in the No. 6 spot regardless of what happens tonight -- but clearly, a win would go a long way toward strengthening their standing in what looks like a four-way fight for three spots.

[CaliforniaCheez]

Yes the Cowboys beat the Eagles so all other tiebreakers (like division and conference record) do not matter until they play again the final week of the season.

A simplified version of the playoff race is the Packers v. 3 teams in the NFC East. As long as the Packers are not last they are in the playoffs. Currently the Giants are last but they have the tiebreaker over the Cowboys as do the Packers.

Have patience. The Cowboys are on a downhill slide with the Chargers and Saints games coming up.