Why the Packers can win the SuperBowl !

[Sparkey]

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/11_3015_Why_the_Packers_can_win_the_Super_Bowl.htm l

[mraynrand]

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/11_3015_Why_the_Packers_can_win_the_Super_Bowl.htm l


By Kerry J. Byrne
Cold, Hard Football Facts bikini-girl watcher

Image associated with article. LOL
http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Images/GreenBaybikinigirls.jpg

[woodbuck27]

Good article and analysis. The most significant indicator of Packer prospective success going forward IMO:

The Defensive Hogs – Loyal Cold, Hard Football Facts readers (Hi Cousin Daisy!) know about the importance of defensive hogs. Teams that top the Defensive Hog Index do a lot of things well: They stop the run. They put pressure on the quarterback. And they get off the field on third down.

Given those capabilities, it’s no surprise that the better teams in our Defensive Hog Index are an amazing 20-2 in the playoffs since we created the indicator in 2007, while the No. 1 team in DHI has gone on to win the Super Bowl both seasons (2007 Giants, 2008 Steelers).

And, right now, in the wake of their Monday night win, the Packers are No. 1 in the Defensive Hog Index (tied with Philadelphia). That's a very positive indicator of future success.

The Green Bay defense is just 12th in scoring (19.1 PPG). But they look built for the playoffs: they’re No. 3 against the run (3.58 YPA), they’re No. 3 at forcing opponents into Negative Pass Plays (11.3% of dropbacks end in a sack or INT) and their No. 6 in third down (stopping opponents on 65.6% of attempts).

The Ravens got a good look at the effectiveness of Green Bay’s Defensive Hogs Monday night: Baltimore suffered six Negative Pass Plays on 39 dropbacks (15.4%) and were held to just 66 rushing yards on 21 attempts (3.1 YPA), though they did manage to convert nearly half their third downs (6 of 13).

None of this means the Packers will be favorites to reach the Super Bowl. None of this means they'll even make the playoffs. There's still a lot of football to be played. But it does mean this: the Packers do a lot of things that usually lead to postseason success quite well and they will boast key advantages against almost any opponent in January.

So don't bet against the Acme Packing Co. just yet.

GO Pack GO!

[digitaldean]

I'm all for positive thinking..and our defense is carrying us right now. But, man alive, if we don't straighten out the penalties and the special teams gaffes it will bite us in the gluteus maximus.

[Fritz]

This thread is fun and all but it's reaching a bit.

Let's enjoy having an 8-4 record and let's beat the hell out of the Bears.

[mraynrand]

This thread is fun and all but it's reaching a bit.

Let's enjoy having an 8-4 record and let's beat the hell out of the Bears.

A people should know when they are conquered.

Unleash hell.

http://scrapetv.com/News/News%20Pages/Sports/images-2/gladiator-movie-russell-crowe.jpg
Are you not ENTERTAINED?

[MJZiggy]

This thread is fun and all but it's reaching a bit.

Let's enjoy having an 8-4 record and let's beat the hell out of the Bears.

A people should know when they are conquered.

Unleash hell.

http://scrapetv.com/News/News%20Pages/Sports/images-2/gladiator-movie-russell-crowe.jpg
Are you not ENTERTAINED?

My mom had an old apron that looked a lot like that guy's skirt...That said, this is a football forum. If we don't lose any more games at all this year, we'll likely win the SuperBowl. Somehow I don't see perfection happening with the way the special (meaning short but) teams are playing.

The Redskins just fired a good kicker for a couple bad kicks (one that had a problem with the hold). I wonder if he shows up in GB next summer...

[pbmax]

Somehow I don't see perfection happening with the way the special (meaning short but) teams are playing.
I have to admit, I was always curious to know what it was like to ride the short butt! :lol:

[MJZiggy]

:oops: typo...bus...

[wist43]

4 weeks ago, you guys were contemplating jumping out of windows... :)

We have seen improvement, no doubt... but the calibur of competition needs to be taken into acct. The defenses ranking has more to do with facing the likes of Detroit, St. Louis, Cleveland, Tampa, et al... than it does with a championship calibur defense.

That said, I have noticed a change in game planning, and utilization of more unbalanced fronts - which should have been a big "dah" from the moment Capers was hired, but for some reason he trotted out defenses that made vanilla look exotic.

Beyond that, the OL has shown marginal improvement over the past few games... but does anyone really think they can hold up consistently against top flight defensive fronts???

They're headed in the right direction... but the pig still needs buckets full of lipstick - and hefty amounts of alcohol - to be seen as a SB contender.

[pbmax]

Its no mystery what happened. Capers mentioned it. He wasn't going to bring out the blitz package until they showed the discipline to stay in their run gaps.

But I think this defense might be better than its ranking and here is why. They are currently 1st in yardage allowed, but twelfth in points. One of the reasons they are so high in yardage is that opposing offenses start on our 45 yard line on average*.

A better showing from special teams coverage will give opposing teams a longer field to work with and might drop our ranking in yardage. But it would also raise our ranking in points allowed. Shawn Slocum, the bells are tolling for you.

* A fact I pulled from my posterior, but I think you know what i mean.

[BallHawk]

They're not a favorite by any means, but once you get into the playoffs, all bets are off. It's whoever plays the best string of games. If the Packers can come in hot and get a few lucky bounces, they could be a Giants or Steelers-like team.

[Smidgeon]

We have seen improvement, no doubt... but the calibur of competition needs to be taken into acct. The defenses ranking has more to do with facing the likes of Detroit, St. Louis, Cleveland, Tampa, et al... than it does with a championship calibur defense.

Just stop with this. Everybody faces bad teams. Everybody. And Green Bay shut down a hot Cowboys team, a hot running team in the Ravens, and everyone except Vernon Davis on the Niners. Give it a rest.

[Brandon494]

We have seen improvement, no doubt... but the calibur of competition needs to be taken into acct. The defenses ranking has more to do with facing the likes of Detroit, St. Louis, Cleveland, Tampa, et al... than it does with a championship calibur defense.

Just stop with this. Everybody faces bad teams. Everybody. And Green Bay shut down a hot Cowboys team, a hot running team in the Ravens, and everyone except Vernon Davis on the Niners. Give it a rest.

Yea no shit, the Steelers lost to the Chiefs, Raiders, and Browns so its not like they are always guarnteed wins. Go look at other teams schedules, they don't face the Saints and Colts every week either. I do admit we have had a pretty easy schedule this season.

[hoosier]

Its no mystery what happened. Capers mentioned it. He wasn't going to bring out the blitz package until they showed the discipline to stay in their run gaps.

But I think this defense might be better than its ranking and here is why. They are currently 1st in yardage allowed, but twelfth in points. One of the reasons they are so high in yardage is that opposing offenses start on our 45 yard line on average*.

A better showing from special teams coverage will give opposing teams a longer field to work with and might drop our ranking in yardage. But it would also raise our ranking in points allowed. Shawn Slocum, the bells are tolling for you.

* A fact I pulled from my posterior, but I think you know what i mean.

This comment made me curious about how much variation there truly is between good and bad special teams. And also about how much average starting field position for GBs opponents has changed from the first four games (when they were not giving up one huge return per game) to the last eight.

Some answers, courtesy of Football Outsiders: Average starting field position for GBs opponents is the opp's 32 yard line this year. GB ranks 30th in the league in that. GBs average starting field position, meanwhile, is their own 31, which strangely enough ranks 8th in the league. First conclusion: there is not of variation in starting FP between the really good and the really bad. The worst starting FP for a defense is the 34.5 yard line (Detroit) and the best is the 26 yard line (NE). On offense the best is their own 33 (Chicago) and the worst is their onw 26 (Tenn).

Green Bay also ranks fairly low in getting off the field on third down: they have only managed to force a punt on 39% of opponents drives. By comparison, Dallas and Pitts force punts on 51% of opponent drives.

[MOBB DEEP]

We have seen improvement, no doubt... but the calibur of competition needs to be taken into acct. The defenses ranking has more to do with facing the likes of Detroit, St. Louis, Cleveland, Tampa, et al... than it does with a championship calibur defense.

Just stop with this. Everybody faces bad teams. Everybody. And Green Bay shut down a hot Cowboys team, a hot running team in the Ravens, and everyone except Vernon Davis on the Niners. Give it a rest.

qft

[The Leaper]

We have seen improvement, no doubt... but the calibur of competition needs to be taken into acct. The defenses ranking has more to do with facing the likes of Detroit, St. Louis, Cleveland, Tampa, et al... than it does with a championship calibur defense.

Just stop with this. Everybody faces bad teams. Everybody. And Green Bay shut down a hot Cowboys team, a hot running team in the Ravens, and everyone except Vernon Davis on the Niners. Give it a rest.

qft

I agree.

We've also faced the Vikings twice...and they have a pretty damn good offense.

We are 13 weeks into the season...and GB is the #1 ranked defense. They have nothing to apologize for.